[Serie A - April 21-22]

Re: Serie A - April 21-22 It is worth noting that Napoli will have to change their system against Novara. Lavezzi and Pandev are missing and Mazzari has stated that he will not be playing Vargas this season due to pressure placed on him. So that leaves Hamsik behind Cavani with an extra body in midfield. All told, I'd be wary of taking a big handicap or a lot of goals. A couple of matches are tickling me but for some reason I can't bring myself to follow through. I really want to oppose Fiorentina because they will not win matches with Cerci and Ljajic up front. However I cannot bring myself to back this Inter side so it looks like a no bet. I will almost certainly be taking Lecce on a positive handicap but I'm hoping to squeeze a little bit more out of them before going in.

[Serie A - April 21-22]

Re: Serie A - April 21-22 Back to action this weekend. Again, there is not much that I want to sink my teeth into. There seems to be two short prices on Lazio (vs Lecce) and Juventus (vs Roma) though. Both matches feature 4 highly motivated teams. Lazio have been inconsistent for a while now. Without Klose they lose a lot of attacking threat and Hernanes shoulders too much creative burden. Anyway I have to look further but if Lecce slip onto the +1 (AH) line then I will certainly be interested. Roma are currently available on that line but I am a little hesitant to take it. Juventus are on a bit of a march at the moment. My gut says that they are bit short though so it is worth looking at. Again, further detail required.

[Serie A - 14-16 April]

Re: Serie A - 14-16 April I think this is going to be my only play this weekend. Lecce - Napoli This should be a nice game to watch. Both teams have attacking talent and both have trouble defending. Lecce are at full-strength as they continue to fight against the drop. Meanwhile Napoli may be ringing some changes as they are really struggling at the moment. The mooted change is to drop a forward and bring in an extra midfielder. I'm not sure that they will do it, but it isn't a massive change in the system. Losing Cavani or Hamsik would affect the team though. I don't think they will go with this change but you never know. Anyway, Zuniga, Cannavaro and Britos are all available and the first two will certainly start. Napoli's defensive issues are well known at the moment so a shake up could be called for. Britos and Campagnaro will probably join Canna. Beyond that there is no important team issues. Both need points though the home side should be more motivated than the visitors. If Napoli show up though then they could put Lecce to the sword but they have been playing really badly of late. Making them favourites in this seems dangerous. You really would be banking on Lavezzi and Hamsik turning up. Both teams have deadly counter-attacks so I do expect a to and fro match. I feel most comfortable backing goals in this one because neither side can capably dictate and control matches. Both have good attacking players and weak defences. Lecce should be really pumped for this and I was tempted to back them but as I said, goals for me in this one. Over 2.5 goals - 1.800 - 6 points Over 3.5 goals - 2.750 - 2 points Both Bet365

[Serie A - 14-16 April]

Re: Serie A - 14-16 April I kind of think that is more or less about right. Udinese have been stuttering for a little while but I would want a slightly longer price to consider backing Inter. They can't defend and will be caught out more than enough times in this match. Samuel is suspended so Rannochia (who has been playing terribly lately) or Chivu (who is an utter liability) will play CB. I just don't see much in this Inter side personally so I think Udinese can easily get a draw out of the match. With their missing players I don't think I could back them to win though so this match is a clear leave for me.

[Serie A - 14-16 April]

Re: Serie A - 14-16 April I think you really have to dig deep to find value in this round. I can't see much around to be honest. There doesn't seem to be an obvious fades. Not much to work with IMO. I kind of fancy Catania away at Cagliari - to get something at least. I think I'll go with goals in Lecce-Napoli because they are both hectic sides at the moment and I can see a very open match.

[Serie A - 14-16 April]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Saturday 14 April 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]AC Milan v Genoa (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.28[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]14[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.27 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Udinese v Internazionale (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.18 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Sunday 15 April 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Novara v Lazio (11:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.7[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.85 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Atalanta v Chievo (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.68[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.65[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.49 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Cesena v Juventus (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]11[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.38[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]98.95 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Lecce v Napoli (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.54[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]97.35 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Palermo v Parma (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]97.50 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Siena v Bologna (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.62[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.85[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.19 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]AS Roma v Fiorentina (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.66[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6.4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.02 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Monday 16 April 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Cagliari v Catania (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.52[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.40 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Liga Adelante - 13-15 April]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Friday 13 April 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]UD Almería v Villarreal B (20:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.71[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.79 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Saturday 14 April 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Elche CF v FC Cartagena (15:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.62[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.66 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Alcoyano v Guadalajara-SPA (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.18[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.60 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]CD Numancia v Xerez (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.87[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.65[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.76 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Córdoba CF v Sabadell (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.53[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.85 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Girona v FC Barcelona B (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.42[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.98 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Real Murcia v Hercules CF (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.05[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.64[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.43 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Real Valladolid v Huesca (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]11[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.35 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]UD Las Palmas v Recreativo de Huelva (17:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.26[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.58 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Sunday 15 April 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Celta de Vigo v Deportivo La Coruña (11:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.22[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.60 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Gimnastic de Tarragona v Alcorcón (18:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.38[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.89 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[La Liga - 14-16 April]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Saturday 14 April 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Real Madrid v Real Sporting de Gijon (19:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.08[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]16.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]48[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.45 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Levante UD v FC Barcelona (21:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]16[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.23[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.84 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Sunday 15 April 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Espanyol v Valencia (11:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.83 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Málaga v Real Sociedad (15:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.57[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.50 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Real Betis v Osasuna (15:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.12 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Real Zaragoza v Granada CF (15:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.87 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Villarreal v Racing Santander (15:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.63[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.03 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Athletic Bilbao v Real Mallorca (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.95[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.98 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Rayo Vallecano v Atlético Madrid (20:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.66 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Monday 16 April 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Getafe v Sevilla (20:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.68[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.44 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Serie A TIM > 10th - 12th April]

Re: Serie A TIM > 10th - 12th April I quite like goals in Catania-Lecce. Having said that I have been wrong as to which Lecce will turn up for a few weeks recently so I am taking heed and staying clear. I am opposing Napoli though. Napoli - Atalanta Napoli have some quite severe defensive issues to deal with. Beyond their poor defending for months, they now have personnel problems. Maggio, Cannavaro, Zuniga and Britos are missing. A key CB and their two primary wing-backs. They have not been defending well with them, so without them they could struggle. It is possible for them to play a back 4, but it seems logical for them to avoid changing their playing style completely. Somebody will have to play out of position on the right flank though and it is expected to be Dzemaili. The 3 chosen CB's out of Aronica, Campagnaro, Fernandez, Grava and Fideleff will be without their leader in Cannavaro. Aronica is commonly an accident waiting to happen while Campagnaro has been a little shaky for a while. Moving forward they still have all the necessary players to win this match - regardless of form. Inler and Gargano are a solid base while the front 3 can run riot when they want to. Even so, with their defensive issues I don't think they should be priced so shortly. Atalanta are an efficient team. Their 4-4-2 doesn't look spectacular but it does get the job done quite regularly. They are quite strong down the flanks on the counter which will focus on Napoli's primary weakness in this match. They'll be happy to let Napoli press the match which is not really their strong point. Denis has fitness doubts but it seems as though he will make it. He is by fair their best striking option. Although they haven't been too hot recently, and they could be considered 'safe' from relegation I can take them on a handicap in this one. BTTS could also be another option. Annoyingly, the line has shifted in the last couple of hours but you can still get full cover on a one goal loss. Atalanta +1 - 2.075 - 4 points - Bet365

[Serie A TIM > 10th - 12th April]

Re: Serie A TIM > 10th - 12th April There are short prices everywhere this round. Roma, Milan, Juventus and Napoli all look short to me. I'll be looking further today but I think at least one of these can be faded.

[Serie A - April 7]

Re: Serie A - April 7 I haven't taken anything yet but here is what I am thinking for this weekend. I agree with Roma away at Lecce. I was thoroughly disappointed with Lecce last week. When the chips were down they punked out. I don't think they can stay up now and Roma come here with a lot to play for. They are hunting for 3rd place. Roma will hold all of the ball in this and I was not at all impressed with how Lecce built their attacks last week. It was rushed and strangely complex. They had ideas that they couldn't back up which is kind of the story of their season. With Roma coming here 'motivated' I can certainly consider backing them. I can see Juve and Milan trashing Palermo and Fiorentina respectively. I can also see something in fading Inter. I haven't had a chance to fully think out my plays yet but that is what I'm thinking.

[Serie A - March 31 - April 1]

Re: Serie A - March 31 - April 1 I've been doing pretty terrible recently. Another loss of -3 today. It could have been different had Lecce not hit the post relatively early on. They try some incredible passing moves for a team in the bottom 3 - it's just a shame that they don't really see them through into good chances. The second half was a real slog and I turned off after about 70 minutes because you could see it wasn't going to happen.

[Serie A - March 31 - April 1]

Re: Serie A - March 31 - April 1 I'm in agreement with potentially fading Milan. I want to see the line-up first though because I'm not sure to what degree Allegri will rest players. MVB, Silva, Seedorf are out among the other long term absentees. Ambrosini is also 'doubtful' but may have to play. He put in a hard shift against Barca so another game could take it out of him. Boateng can drop back into midfield and Aquilani is expected to come back in despite his patchy form. Robinho, El Sha and Ibra should lead the line. The back line is the interesting part. Abate is in the squad again so the back line could be: Abate-Bonera-Mexes-Antonini. I don't think Allegri can afford to rest Mexes given that this is a hard game. I'm considering the home side on the +0.5 line but yet to pull the trigger. I am taking one match though: Lecce-Cesena I am taking the home side in this one. This match marks the last stand in their battle to avoid relegation. They have a pretty awful run in so if they fail to win here, they are going down. Cosmi is a decent motivator and the team should be pumped for this. I've written a few times on how I view this team. They have good ball players and decent attackers. They cause problems in most matches but often fail to take advantage of their 'dominant' periods. They have their best XI available though a couple of players have niggles to battle. Cesena have been down and out of a long time. They have kept plugging away but have been poor all season long. Notably, Parolo and Laquinta are out. It's hard for the current players to get pumped up for matches given the situation and I kind of expect Lecce to swamp them as much as possible in this one. They have the better attacking players so they could get a couple at least in this. The odds are short though so significant value may be hard to find. Light-ish stakes as I've watched Lecce struggle too many times this season. Lecce -1 (AH) - 1.950 - 3 points - Bet365 ​Under 2,2.5 looks good in Fiorentina-Chievo but not much else appeals to me in this round.

[Serie A - March 24-25]

Re: Serie A - March 24-25 I punked out again today. I wasn't able to watch any matches today but they certainly didn't go to plan. -8 for the weekend.

[Serie A - March 24-25]

Re: Serie A - March 24-25 I have bitten on two games thus far. Genoa-Fiorentina I've gone with the home side in this one. These two are both in dreadful form right now but I think Fiorentina are, narrowly in a worse state than the home side. Fiorentina got taken apart by Juventus 5-0 last week in a feebly weak performance. The pressure is on Delio Rossi and his team as they are technically in a relegation battle now. Genoa are in bad form themselves and are only just above their opponents so this match is a huge one. There are some finer line-up points in this one. Genoa are expected to name the same 4-3-1-2 as seen against Roma with Belluschi or Jorquera in the hole. Sculli is due to only make the bench but if he were to come on then I think they would go 4-3-3. Fiorentina are expected to go with a 4-4-2. Cassani and Pasqual would flank Gamberini and Natali with Nastasic pushing for a spot. Behrami-Lazzari-Montolivo-Vargas would be the midfield with Jovetic-Amauri up front. IMO that midfield is crap. Weak and physically lacking compared to Genoa's trio of Rossi-Veloso-Biondini. This is why I am thinking Vargas will push up and join Amauri and Jovetic leaving a midfield 3. It's still weaker than the home side but at least they could match them in a 3 and fight. This is the key area of the pitch for me and the home side take it. I'd much prefer Sculli to make it in a 4-3-3 but providing they can get the ball forward to Palacio I think they can trouble Fiorentina enough. Jovetic has enough talent in his right boot to screw this bet over but I have to take Genoa in this. It's a huge match and they have home advantage and a 'better' state of mind to take it. I personally have this down as 47/33/20. Genoa - 2.40 - 4 points - Bet365 Novara-Lecce This is a proper relegation 6 pointer. Both teams are in the thick of it, and are having somewhat of a revival. Novara are seeking their 3rd win on the spin while Lecce have been trundling along with a couple of near misses. They should have been out of sight against Palermo before they conceded and got a man sent off. They held on for a point, but it should have been 3. As a team they have attacking quality but they never feel as though they can safely close a match out. Novara are probably my least watched side in Serie A so I will be careful with what I say. They play a style that quickly switches between 5-3-2 and 3-5-2 (much like Lecce). Rigoni is the star man breaking from the midfield. Caracciolo, Jeda and Mascara battle are their primary attacking options. They aren't a typical over 2.5 side as they usually look to keep it tight and counter. Team news in this is pretty good for both teams. Novara have no major players missing in this one. Lecce have Oddo and Obodo missing from their first-XI, but other than that the other unavailable players don't matter. Cuardrado returns to the right flank joining Delvecchio, Giacomazzi, Bertolacchi and Brivio in midfield. Muriel and Di Michele lead the line as per. They have talent on the ball and have taken the initiative in these matches before. It is their strength to be on the ball and I think they will play in that fashion again. Novara will no doubt look to counter as they usually do and they can certainly hurt a defensively weak Lecce. I think both sides will go hard for the win in this - a point is no good to either. I am going with goals. Over 2.5 goals - 2.050 - 4 points - Bet365

[La Liga - 24-26 March]

Re: La Liga - 24-26 March I'm afraid I don't watch that much Spanish football so can't comment too much on how teams play. However, something has caught my eye for this weekend. Espanyol host Malaga while both are chasing 4th spot. Both are in decent form recently and going on stats I think this game could have goals in it. Espanyol score 1.64 goals pg at home, Malaga 0.93 pg away. Espanyol concede 1.14 pg at home, Malaga 1.57 pg away. As I understand both teams possess attacking talent as well. Given these factors I am interested in over 2.5 goals (1.90 at Bet365). I'll look further into team news for this match before deciding anything. I'd appreciate the thoughts of some more regular La Liga viewers.

[Ligue 2 - March 23-27]

Re: Ligue 2 - March 23-26 Sick work as usual Atko. I'm too shook from this league to even follow advice as good as yours, but I enjoyed the read.

[La Liga - 24-26 March]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Saturday 24 March 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Real Mallorca v FC Barcelona (17:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]16.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.25[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.35 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Real Madrid v Real Sociedad (19:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.15[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]9.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]24[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.04 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Getafe v Valencia (21:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.53[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.43 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Sunday 25 March 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Real Zaragoza v Atlético Madrid (11:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.85[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.72 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Espanyol v Málaga (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.51[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.05[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.04 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Levante UD v Osasuna (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.15[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.00 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Athletic Bilbao v Real Sporting de Gijon (17:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.42[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]10[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.83 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Rayo Vallecano v Villarreal (18:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.39 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Real Betis v Racing Santander (18:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.7[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.05[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6.13[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.83 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Monday 26 March 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Granada CF v Sevilla (20:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.15[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.73 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Serie A - March 24-25]

Re: Serie A - March 24-25 Some fairly intriguing matches this round. It's kind of hard to see any real 1X2 value. Lazio and Genoa are what I am looking at in this respect, but both require more analysis. I'm also looking into goals this round. Palermo-Udinese (1.80), Atalanta-Bologna (2.40), Genoa-Fiorentina (2.05) and Novara-Lecce (2.05) are possible plays for over 2.5. Much more to be looked at but I'd welcome any thoughts.

[Coppa Italia - 20-21 March]

Re: Coppa Italia - 20-21 March I think it's dangerous to make Juventus favourites in this match. They are at home, but they lead 2-1 and therefore don't have to win tonight. It's a straight line-up job though because I suspect changes will be made. Milan are actually rumoured to be going full-strength which essentially means Ibra and Silva would play. Juventus have gone 3-5-2 in big matches already this season so they may well do so again. As I said, line-ups are definitive, but Milan could be a play.

[Serie A - March 17-19]

Re: Serie A - March 17-19

Roma -1.5 - 2.2 - 3 points - LOSS

This looked nailed on just after the match started. Roma were playing fantastic football and then after 25 minutes the impetus and quality got sucked out of their play. They were rarely troubled (save Palacio missing a sitter) but their inconsistency was seen in 90 minutes. Genoa escape after another performance that could have seen a hiding.

[Serie A - March 17-19]

Re: Serie A - March 17-19 I do agree with the thinking that Roma will win this match, but whether or not there is any value is another question. Given how up and down they have been, 1.5 is a tricky proposition. Having said that Genoa have been terrible lately. They have scraped comeback draws against Parma and Lecce and somehow avoided defeat against Juventus. Prior to those, they lost against Catania, Atalanta and Chievo. Away from home they have been awful, showing a really weak mentality. They still possess some individual talent in Palacio and a man who he can feed in Gila. Backed by Jankovic they can cause problems but I don't see much for them in this match. Roma are without Taddei, Juan and Totti. Genoa miss Granqvist, Kucka and probably Sculli. I think the loss of Totti is actually a benefit because although he is still supremely talented with the ball, movement and work ethic are more important to unsettling Genoa. You don't need to thread champagne balls through tight gaps. Simple pressure will get the job done in time. Lamela, Osvaldo and Borini is a potentially troublesome three. Roma will have a lot of the ball in this one and I don't think Genoa will be as threatening as other teams on the counter. They really don't have a good enough defence to hold out so it's a case of how effective Roma are at finishing. Juventus paid the price last week. I don't think there is any value at all below 1.5. I do think Roma can open Genoa up and win by a few so handicap's are options. I'm going to have a small play on -1.5 because, the supreme amount of possession Roma will have combined with Genoa's dire performance's in away matches will give the home side plenty of opportunities. Roma -1.5 - 2.2 - 3 points - Bet365

[Serie A - March 17-19]

Re: Serie A - March 17-19

Roma v Genoa Genoa is on 13th place with 33 points and achieved so far 9 victories, 6 draws and 12 defeats. Genoa in last five games played is without victory, they draw with Juventus Torino, Lecce and FC Parma and lost with Chievo Verona and Atalanta Bergamo. Francesco Totti will miss from AS Roma but will be great forwards in first line such as Pablo Osvaldo, Fabio Borini and Bojan and home team cannot miss all the 3 points in this game when will be with home court advantage on their side. Verdict: Roma to win Source:

http://www.goal.com/en-us/match/64138/as-roma-vs-genoa/preview

Roma -genua roma need victory to keep up with Lazio Napoli and Udinese for CL qualifying third place. Lazio lost yesterday, Napoli and Udinese drew. Genua with three draws recently. After winning in Palermo last week, they need a run now. I believe in Roma to win @1.5

We appreciate the effort guys but in this section of the forum you need to provide the bookmaker with which you recommend taking the bet. Also, there is always more to a match than 'X needs to win to maintain their position'.

[Coppa Italia - 20-21 March]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Tuesday 20 March 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Juventus v AC Milan (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.42[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.61 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Wednesday 21 March 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Napoli v Siena (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.36[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]11[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.66 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Serie A - March 17-19]

Re: Serie A - March 17-19 Quite amazing how Lecce-Palermo stayed 1-1. Whenever I watch Lecce they always seem to fall just short after huffing and puffing. I think I may look at them in their next two matches against relegation candidates though. They always have a go and do have some decent attackers. Inter...