Bettingboots
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Posts posted by Bettingboots
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On 5/23/2021 at 12:14 AM, four-leaf said:
Coco Gauff ofcourse, might be to early for her but 17, ranked 30 going higher on monday after triumphing in Parma unless they don't update the rankings next week. She won the junior French open so why not.
Gauff has been playing very well so would be no surprise to see her do well here. Personally tho, I would prefer if she treats this like a warm-up for the big one at SW19 ?
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23 hours ago, Foo_Fighter said:
Swiatek to beat Gauff at 1.44 with bet365
I doubt Iga will have any problems with Gauff. Probably a straight set win, but I'm just gonna go with Iga winning the match.
I expected Swiatek to win also, but I thought Gauff gave her plenty of problems and that bodes well for the youngster when she gets off the clay and onto a surface she enjoys.
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2 minutes ago, Torque said:
Speaking of tanking, it's possible Djokovic isn't too interested in beating Sonego today either. He might not want to face Nadal in the final here, for fear that if he loses it'll give Nadal a boost ahead of the French. Beating Tsitsipas the way that he did could mean that he feels he's got everything he needed out of this tournament.
That was also in my mind, and makes his price too short. Could be completely wrong and Joker could turn up and blow him away, but I just don't see it in front of this Italian crowd.
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Joker looks much too short a price here against the local boy. Sonego has beaten him before (their only meeting) so won't be intimidated.
I've layed Djokovic on the exchange at 1.19 and expect to green up in-running.
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Isner can trouble anyone in these conditions, and if you can't find a way to break him, your chances don't improve much in TBs (because he plays so many of them he has a decent record). I thought he served poorly yesterday by his standards but he raised his game on the big points and was too solid in the TBs for Rublev. Thiem is building up for Roland Garos, and is clearly rusty after his lay off, so is more vulnerable than normal today. I haven't backed him but Isner could win this and I don't think it would be a disaster for Thiem. The main thing for the Austrian is to find his match fitness and his confidence. There were some silly prices for him on the FO outright before this tourney (14/1 on the exchange at one point), so I've invested in that with a view his price will contract a lot before the start of Roland Garos.
- four-leaf and CzechPunter
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12 times Monte Carlo champion Nadal doesn't need any help or favours, trust me ?
- CzechPunter and Stanimal
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Helluva result for Evans. Joker unsettled by his style but all the same the Brit still had to hold his nerve and saved a lot of BPs.
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Did anyone see Evans v Hurkacz match ? Hurkacz was the one that blew my 6fold yesterday and I'm just wondering how he managed to lose to Evans so easily. Evans hasn't played much and supposedly doesn't like clay either.
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Its also possible that, despite being 18 months older, she is in better physical condition now than she was in that Wimbledon final. At that time she had been out the game for a while, having her child, and definitely struggled when she first came back.
- CzechPunter, Robinnho, Torque and 1 other
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23 hours ago, SteffiSteffiGraf said:
I would think that most of them, if not all of them, were long enough ago to be rather irrelevant.
In terms of 2021 Halep and 2021 Serena Williams, Williams doesn’t have anywhere near the movement or all-round game to go toe-to-toe with Halep. I’m happy to lump on Halep and if need be, and it goes wrong, lump on even bigger on Osaka to beat Williams in the next round.
I think we’re in a nice little sweet spot for betting, when the Federer/S. Williams/Nadal/Djokovic eras are starting to wind down, but the bookies still insist on pricing them up based on their previous glories. There’s decent money to be made in opposing these players, when the time is right. I could have gone in on Sabalenka to beat Williams, but I decided to hold off, as I thought that Sabalenka’s game might suit Serena a bit more than Halep’s. I think Sabalenka probably deserved to win the match just about.
I trust Halep - and Osaka - hugely though, the best two players in the world by a bit of a margin, so I’m happy to lump on them both to beat Serena, if they both end up playing her.
I don’t think it will get that far though, as Halep is the one player that I’d back to demolish Serena. I can’t believe that I’m getting 13/10 on that, because I would happily take a far shorter price, and still think it was a gift! I was expecting somewhere around 1/2 or 4/9.
I wish you luck with your Halep bet, but don't share your big confidence. Williams is nearly 40 years old now and is regressing, so more players have more chances than ever before, of beating her. So I don't think she'll win another slam, but she is still dangerous. While she lacks movement and court coverage (although that was never her strong point anyway), she retains some dangerous weapons, esp her serve which remains the best in the game. She also has something which has seen her over the line in countless matches when she should have lost - mental strength. This is the reason she practically owns Halep in the h2h, Halep has the game to beat her, all the tools she needs, and should have beaten her several times already, but she hasn't. Halep is a massive underachiever in the women's game - that tell you she has a mentality issue. She got over this issue the last time at Wimbledon so she should draw a lot of confidence from that, and her backers will be hoping she can just continue with this. But I'm not convinced yet she is totally over her mental midgetry. A match to watch but not bet in, for me. GL with your bets.
- Torque, Foo_Fighter and CzechPunter
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2 hours ago, SteffiSteffiGraf said:
Simona Halep at 13/10 to beat Serena Williams?!
Did the bookies not watch the 2019 Wimbledon final? That price is birthdays and Christmases all rolled into one.
Can we all agree now to lump on that price with a lot of money? Williams doesn’t have anywhere near the level of movement required to compete with Halep. Simona is going to blow her off the court, like she did in the Wimbledon final.
What about 9 out of the other 10 times when she lost to her ?
- Johnny1, Torque and CzechPunter
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1 hour ago, SteffiSteffiGraf said:
On top of that, we have a couple of good match-ups in the men’s tournament as well, in Djokovic against Raonic, and Thiem against Dimitrov.
Djokovic v Raonic is not a good match up, for Raonic. On paper, the Canadian should have a lot in his favour - lightning fast court and questions marks over Joker's fitness. But he is a mental midget and unless the Serb is genuinely injured, I'm expecting the same result as every other time he plays him.
Dimitrov v Theim should be a good match. Dimi loves it here and shades the h2h with Dominic so looks a bit of value at current prices.
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1 hour ago, bet4fun said:
just when the lockdown started in australia and crowds left the real novak comes back even though he is injured and shows the kid what world class is even fooled the bookies who at one point had a rate of 3.50. a fit novak would have crushed fritz
We'll find out in the next few days wether Joker's injury was real or serious, but he has a long long history of selling a bag of goods, and those brave enough to go against the market swings would have made some juicy profits. I had a little at Evens in-play, but I know he traded a lot higher than that, and in the outright he drifted out to a huge price at one point. Nice trade if you got it, but I'd be greening up now if it was me because he hasn't looked great in any match and these courts look super fast and that won't be in his favour (hasn't he already complained about the courts?).
- CzechPunter and Torque
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Shapo looked pretty good in his first round win over Sinner. The only issue I see with a 3-0 bet here is Tomic retiring before that happens. He has plenty of previous and he's already made his excuses by complaining about his knee.
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Turns out Skybet were the quickest to price it up. Was expecting it might be bet365.
Thats excluding the exchanges of course. Befair had price up before any of them, but not too much liquidity so I couldn't judge the relative value of the price.
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Does anyone know which firm or firms are the quickest for marking up prices ? I've got my eye on one of the 2nd round matches but its not been priced up yet by any of those listed on Oddschecker. I'd like to take advantage of any value price that might appear before it gets smashed in.
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3 hours ago, liquidglass said:
Yeah, I knew you would have been gutted about Sinner. That is one of the most painful ways a person can lose a bet where the thought is spot on but loses on the expression of that thought. Sinner covered the handicap and total games with a lot to spare. It also looked like he could win a set anytime he chose to put his foot on the gas pedal but never quite got round to doing it. He largely suffered from the cobwebs of inexperience. His total concentration was in and out for most parts and his commitment to shots was lackadaisical at times coupled with a body language that was not in line with that mission that he was setting out to accomplish. Despite all that, Sinner is the real McCoy for sure!
This match reminded me of Sinner's match v Medvedev earlier this year, where the young Italian started on fire, full of confidence, blitzing him in the first set, but as soon a Medvedev raised his game and applied pressure, Sinner crumpled and lost heavily in the next 2 sets. You can see Sinner has a huge game and for much of the match he was able to hit thru Nadal, but not when it really counted. When it really mattered (holding after breaking Nadal's serve, and in the TB) he lost his confidence, his focus, and his big shots disappeared. Nadal will do that to 99% of the players on the circuit. We have to remember he is only 19, so has lots of time to improve and gain more experience of being in these tough situations, and if he does improve his mentality he could be a serious weapon on the tour.
- Torque and CzechPunter
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Just seen it now. Joker 1st, Rafa 2nd, Thiem 3rd. Didn't think they would just go with the current world rankings.
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What are the seedings for Roland Garos ? Have they been announced yet ?
If it were me, I'd have Nadal 1st, Thiem 2nd, Djokovic 3rd, but I suspect Joker will be seeded 2nd, and Thiem 3rd.
Seedings will have a big impact on the draw, and therefore the outright prices.
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On 9/16/2020 at 12:46 AM, Torque said:
I didn't watch Wawrinka and I didn't have an interest in the outcome, but it's the sort of match and result that I find really frustrating. Years of following tennis tells me the match went the way it did because Wawrinka couldn't be bothered - happy to be corrected if others watched and feel that wasn't the case. I know there was talk of an injury for Wawrinka but even that scenario I find frustrating - if he wasn't fit enough to play then why start the match and if he wasn't fit enough to compete then why complete the match, or the first set for that matter given the way that ended up going. Losing the first set 6-0 should be a professional embarrassment, but it won't be because as I alluded to the chances are Wawrinka just wasn't fussed.
To me, the absolute minimum a player should give is their best effort. Lose by all means - after all tennis is a sport where losing is a regular occurrence for practically every player - but at least try. If you don't feel able to do that for whatever reason then don't play, because it never looks good to see a player tank and it doesn't make the sport look good either. The worst ones and the most blatant ones are at minor tournaments before Slams - Exhibit A for me would have to be Dimitrov last year. Ahead of the US Open he was beaten by Kevin King - ranked at about 400 - in straight sets. I watched that match and he was finishing every rally early with an unforced error and really couldn't have made it more obvious that he didn't want to be out there, and then he goes on a great run at Flushing Meadows and takes out Federer.
Couldn't agree more, Torque. I didn't see the Wawa match but it wouldn't be the first time he has tanked a match, esp when its close to a slam event.
I would also add Kerber to that list - just saw the highlights of her first round match in Rome and it was disgraceful. In horse racing they call them non-triers or schooling over the jumps. She made absolutely no attempt to go for balls which were simple to reach. Complete waste of an entry, maybe she thought nobody would notice with no crowds, but she should have the book thrown at her for that performance.
- CzechPunter and Torque
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Azarenka is playing well enough to beat Williams but she has to get over some mental challenges. I know she's beaten her a few times, but never in a slam. She's 0 from 10 in slam meetings. But its been a while since their last match and Williams is now almost 39 years old, and at some point that has to count against her. Maybe tonight is the night. But we also know how much this means to Williams and she always raises her game for the big events like this. I think the outcome of this match will be influenced by the result of the first semi. If Brady upsets Osaka I think Williams will get an extra lift and it will fuel her to a victory over Azarenka.
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I like his chances at Wimbledon as well, I think that slam is more open next year than previously.
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19 minutes ago, Torque said:
It's interesting @Bettingboots how people can have such different opinions of players. For me, Medvedev doesn't have one of the stronger temperaments. What I mean is, his temperament is great when things are going his way. When they're not though, or when he can't be bothered (which I've seen in more than one tournament) I'd say he has one of the worst temperaments - you can actually see it in his body language when he's not happy which is never a good thing. Possibly you're confusing a strong temperament with his metronomic style of play, which certainly suggests a consistent mindset when it's on song. The benchmark of a strong temperament is Nadal - win, lose or draw (figure of speech) he always tries as hard as he can and if you're tuning in to one of his matches after it's started you'd be hard-pressed to tell whether he's ahead or behind. Medvedev has a long way to go before I'd describe him as a player with a strong temperament. As I said though, that's my opinion and yours is different and that's the beauty of this forum - argument and counter-argument and then others can make their mind up based on the two sides. Good luck with your bets
Some good insights there, Torque. I've seen the negative body language at times with Medvedev but I'm putting that down to immaturity which I hope he can grow out of. For sure he doesn't compare with Nadal, who's a mental colossus. But I've been impressed by his rapid progress and I love that he doesn't seem to fear the top 3 so I expect him to win a slam sooner rather than later.
- CzechPunter and Torque
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Europa League Predictions > Aug 5th
in Europa League Predictions
Posted
Probably because they were beaten so badly in the last round, and St Johnstone are not your typical Scottish side (i.e naive tactically and leak goals for fun).
The Perth side are defensive minded, very well organised and won both domestic cups in Scotland, eliminating Rangers on the way. I do expect Gala to prevail, esp at home but I can see it being tight, a 1-0 or 2-0 win most likely.
The value bet for me is Gala to win to nil, at around 11/10