ogii55

Ferro - russe Grenoble ITF, Ferro 2.37 Pinnacle
 
Ferro is crushing throught her opponents here. She is in one of the best shapes of her life. Russe is good player on that level, but she played two 3-set matches in a row against weaker opponents then Ferro. Pretty close match with nice edge in the odds for the Frenchman, who probably will get more simpathy from the linesmen. 

Krawietz - Fucsovcs 6.00 at Sporting bet
 
Fucsovs didn't play well yesterday against an opponent, that he must easily beat. He was set and a break down in the second, but managed to get back. Krawietz is playing one of his best tennis so far. He is playing only on indoor hard this season. The guy already stunned three opponents with good tennis and had a total of 5 wins in a row. I respect a lot tennis players who can win a tiebreak in the decider. Krawietz did it twite and it was pretty much convinsing.
 
Mousley - Granollers 5 at Bet victor
Mously is doing pretty well in the tournament. He beat King and Robert pretty easy. The Australian is serving nice and is capable to put some pressure over Granollers, who is showing some signs of tireness. He played 16 matches on single and 10 on doubles since the start of the season. This is a lot. Nice odds

Krawietz - Fucsovcs 6.00 at Sporting bet
 
Fucsovs didn't play well yesterday against an opponent, that he must easily beat. He was set and a break down in the second, but managed to get back. Krawietz is playing one of his best tennis so far. He is playing only on indoor hard this season. The guy already stunned three opponents with good tennis and had a total of 5 wins in a row. I respect a lot tennis players who can win a tiebreak in the decider. Krawietz did it twite and it was pretty much convinsing.
 
Mousley - Granollers 5 at Bet victor
Mously is doing pretty well in the tournament. He beat King and Robert pretty easy. The Australian is serving nice and is capable to put some pressure over Granollers, who is showing some signs of tireness. He played 16 matches on single and 10 on doubles since the start of the season. This is a lot. Nice odds

@ogii55 8.40 shots will lose horribly from time to time, nothing to be ashamed of!

Agabigun - Viola 8.4 Pinnacle
Izmir challenge
One of the rare gems that was missed by the bookies. It's one of those bets that you wouldn't mind to lose. The Turkish guy is just 20-year old and enjoys his best ranks. On paper he is far away from Viola as a class, but the Italian continue to show his bad form. He lost two in a row from outsiders and now is coming from a clay tournament. Agabigun is hard court player. He will have the linesmen on his side. The dude already scored several wins with 4+ odds this season. While Viola already lost once of those big odds earlier this season. I expect the odds to fall under 6 until the start of the match. Agabigun reached the semifinal among doubles last week in Istanbul, so he will be probably in pretty nice shape on the surface.
 
I fancy an easy Troicki win tomorrow against Kuznetcov, who is totally out of shape. While Victor always plays solid on indoors. The odds are around 2.35 for the Serbian.

Sinakova/Hrdecka vs Hingis/Chan 3.2 Pinnacle
Sinakova/Hrdecka started to play their best tennis here. The pair had no problems during the tournament and beat very easy classy doubles teams. They lost twice during the season from Hingis/Chan, but the second lost was very close. Hingis had very tough tournament, because she played also at the mixed doubles. She is the star of the team. Chan's record in big tournaments finals isn't so good. I expect close match, but 3.2 is a must play. The actual odds IMO must be around 2.5-2.6.

Anderson - Nadal, Anderson to take first set 3.9 Pinnacle
 
Nadal lost three times here his first set against opponents that are weaker than Kevin. The big server must start better than in the semifinal, where he made huge amount of UE. In their four matches Anderson once took the first set. And now he is in the best shape of his life. The odds are very good for me. In his 22 GS finals, Rafa lost 9 times the first set, so here the stats are also nice for such odds.

Galovic - Otte 3.84 Pinnacle
 
Going big for Galovic here. The guy is in the form of his life. He came from winning a challenger on hard, beating Basic, Caruso, Halys and now here he is showing even better tennis. Galovic had better opponents here. He was loosing from Florian Mayer, who cause some problems to Cilic on Wimbledon and then scored another surprising win over Gombos Otte gave everything against Janowic and Marterer having problems with a lot of DF. I see the match pretty equal with Otte slight favorite, but Galovic's odds must not been more than 2.50. Everything over 3 is clear value. I expect the odds to drop to around 3 until the start of the match.

ITF Winnipeg
Muller - Hibi 4.52 Pinnacle
Muller just beat in a very tough match Danielle Lao, who is on Hibi's level. She won four matches in a row and seems is in good shape. Muller's doubles partner Perez just played with Hibi so she could give some hints on the wekanesses of Hibi. H2H is 1:0 for Muller, but their sole match is in 2014.
Hibi lost the last two QF matches that she participate into from outsiders. Her two wins here were against players who are far away from her level. 3 to 3.50 is the more reasonable odds here for Muller.

Medelin Challenger
Salamanka - Souza 5.25 Pinnacle
This is my play of the week. Salamanka is a veteran (Former 137 in the world), who played most of his career in Colombia. I watched his match yesterday againts Arevalo. He was in control during the entire match and never gave a BP chance despite three setter with two tie-breaks. The dude has amazing forehand and is serving solidly. He is slow and had some problems with his sholder, but for this price it's worth a try. Souza had awful season. He is 8/13 on clay loosing a lot. In his previous tournament he also had some problems and retired in the first round. Souza's first two opponents were very weak and this is why he beat them easy.

Galovic - Otte 3.84 Pinnacle
 
Going big for Galovic here. The guy is in the form of his life. He came from winning a challenger on hard, beating Basic, Caruso, Halys and now here he is showing even better tennis. Galovic had better opponents here. He was loosing from Florian Mayer, who cause some problems to Cilic on Wimbledon and then scored another surprising win over Gombos Otte gave everything against Janowic and Marterer having problems with a lot of DF. I see the match pretty equal with Otte slight favorite, but Galovic's odds must not been more than 2.50. Everything over 3 is clear value. I expect the odds to drop to around 3 until the start of the match.

Voracova/Ninomaya vs Niculescu/Chan 3.71
 
I was impressed yesterday by Voracova and Ninomaya. They played like a seasoned team. Ninomaya is very strong on the net, super fast and smacking volleys. Voracova had nice back court game. Niculescu and Chan aren't the best double team, but they managed to reach the семиfinal. IMO the odds must be even after Vor/Nin's performance in the last few days.Niculescu and Chan had very easy draw and never meet a strong team. Huge value here.

I am willing to pick Rybarikova at odds 3.75. Now they are 3.20, going up from the starting 2.95. Probably in exchanges that odds may be reached. Muguruza is showing very good tennis, but she lost her only clash against Rybarikova on grass. Rybarikova could imitate the fairy tale of Ostapenko at RG.

Guys,
Some doubles picks from me
Skupski/Skupski vs Melo/Kubot 4.88 Pinnacle
 
Melo/Kubot are without loss this season on grass. But they have two very tough 5-set matches here. Skupski/Skupski are local lads, who are improving each year. They already beat two very good couples in four sets. Melo/Kubot are still favorites to win, but 4.88 is too much. I wouldn't give more than 3.75 for Skupski/Skupski.
 
Barty/Dellaqua vs Makarova/Vesnina 2.49 Pinnacle
Barty/D reached the final at Roland Garros and they had 23/4 all time record on grass. Makarova and Vesnina couldn't find their form from last year. They won just one tournament this year. B/D are leading 1:0 in H2H and the match was in 2013 US Open.
 
Ninomaya/Voracova vs Kuznecova/Mladenovic 6.1 Pinnacle
Ninomaya/Voracova destroyed Hradecka/Sinakova, who are IMO better couple than Kuznecova/Mladenovic. They don't have the same experience as Kuznecova/Mladenovic but seems they are in great form. Kuznecova and Mladenovic needed three sets in their last two matches.
 
 
 
 
 

Guys,
Some doubles picks from me
Skupski/Skupski vs Melo/Kubot 4.88 Pinnacle
 
Melo/Kubot are without loss this season on grass. But they have two very tough 5-set matches here. Skupski/Skupski are local lads, who are improving each year. They already beat two very good couples in four sets. Melo/Kubot are still favorites to win, but 4.88 is too much. I wouldn't give more than 3.75 for Skupski/Skupski.
 
Barty/Dellaqua vs Makarova/Vesnina 2.49 Pinnacle
Barty/D reached the final at Roland Garros and they had 23/4 all time record on grass. Makarova and Vesnina couldn't find their form from last year. They won just one tournament this year. B/D are leading 1:0 in H2H and the match was in 2013 US Open.
 
Ninomaya/Voracova vs Kuznecova/Mladenovic 6.1 Pinnacle
Ninomaya/Voracova destroyed Hradecka/Sinakova, who are IMO better couple than Kuznecova/Mladenovic. They don't have the same experience as Kuznecova/Mladenovic but seems they are in great form. Kuznecova and Mladenovic needed three sets in their last two matches.
 
 
 
 
 

We will see tomorrow. Got a feeling that Rus is capable to make a strong tournament here
Wickmayer - Konta 4.08 Pinnacle
Wickmayer is 1:2 in H2H, but she won the last match on grass in two sets. Both are doubles partners so know each other very well the strong and weak sides of the game. Konta is in kind of hole currently. Not sure she is recovered after awful clay season. She started with a win over out of form and injured oponent. Wickmayer was very strong in her serve games in the first match so I am sure she will be a decent hurdle. Lovely odds.I wouldn't give more than 2.75 to Wickmayer in this match.

Rus - Hlavachkova 2.25 Matchbook
Rus always has been great talent  with huge serve. I can't understand why she is not able to break for a long time at Top 100. She showed very good tennis against Babos and her strong serve. She proved her 
Now her next opponent is a double specialist. Hlavachkova beat three opponents, who are not in best shape. She played a lot of games, including her doubles game. Rus has the edge here and those odds are pretty nice to be missed. 

Another great call @ogii55, well spotted!

Lion Challenger
Maxime Chazal - De Greef 3.70 Pinnacle
Chazal is playing his best tennis in the last few years. He is a typical clay court player, who is residing in France. I like very much De Greef style, but he isn't on form. Managed to beat an injured opponent in the previous round making untypical big number of UE.
Krejsova - Tsurenko 6.00 Matchbook
The odds are because of the big difference in the rating, but actually on grass the difference is not so big. Tsurenko strarted very strong here. She won just two matches on grass for the last two years loosing from the likes of Rodina, Hradecka, Hlavackova and Erakovic. The Ukrainian beauty improved a lot, but still I am not sure if her power play will be enough. Krejsova is on her best career run. SHe already won two ITF tournaments this year and played two more finals. She just beat Jankovic (Out of form) and has a good run from the qualifications. I see her the odds for Krejsova around 4 - 4.50 and I see some value at 6.00 (Actually I already match some bugs them 6.50)
 

Bublik - Lacko 3.12 Pinnacle
 
Bublik played very strongly in his first ever match on grass. He is serving fine and is capable to put pressure on his opponents. Lacko is well rounded player on grass, but his shape is not so fine. Still Lacko is the favorite, but those odds against young Bubli, who ofter stuns the better ranked players is worth a try.

Popyrin odds reached 4.5 before the match at Pinnacle  One of the few times that I am so sorry to took early odds.
 
One match from Lisbon challenger's qualifications
Falcao - Niclas Salminen 2.96 Pinnacle
Falcao is the home player. He is veteran, who is nothing special, but is capable to stun guys , who are far ahead in the rankings from him. The season for Falcao is pretty nice, considering his rankings. Niclas-Salminen is Finish talent, who had a semifinal in Wimblendon juniors in 2015. His recent form isn't so good. Niclas scored a loss at Davis cup tournament from a player from Madagascar without rankings. Current temperature in Lisbon is 29 degrees, so I am not sure how the viking will feel there under the sun. My estimation for the match is close to 50/50 so those odds are nice to be played.

Popirin - Kuhn, boys final at RG, 2.85 Pinnacle
Those matches are always unpredictable, but those odds are mistaken IMO. Popiring won two strong junior tournaments on clay coming to RG. The giant Australian (196 cm) loves the surface. He won pretty easy his semifinal for 60 minutes. On the other hand Kuhn spent more than 3 hours on the court on Friday. He needed 2.13 hours to bet the first seated Kecmanovic (three setter with two tiebreaks for Kuhn, who score less points than the loser). Then he went to play doubles for another 1 hour + and he qualify on finals there as well.

Wawrinka - Nadal 5.59 Pinnacle
I am taking early odds, because I think they will be back to around 5. Now everybody is excited for the clear win of Nadal over Dominic and 5-set battle between Murray and Stan. Both will have a day off to rest, so the efforts put by Wawrinka will not be a problem. He is proven with his great recovery and don't have problems to play 4 or 5-setters during the tournament and to win Grand Slam.
Wawrinka will cause more problems to Nadal then Thiem, because of his power and backhand. Thiem struggled with his backhand side, but it will be a different story with Stan.
Stan has a win on clay over Nadal two years ago (maybe the worst clay season for Rafa). He won their last clash at Grand slam in AO 2014. Wawrinka is very strong on Grand slam finals.
Rafa's road to the final was pretty easy. Except for team his only real threat was RBA, who has some issues in the previous matches and isn't in top form. Busta was injured with some abdominal problems, added to 5-setter with Raonic. Hasse (3-5 this season on clay before RG), Paire (coming with two consecutive losses to RG) and Bashilashvili (who just lost from Sandgren on challenger 2:6, 4:6)
Let's check the list of Wawrinka. World number one Murray (Yes, not in his best shape, but running like hell as always), Kovalik (13/9 on clay coming to RG), Dolgopolov (Won ATP BUenos aires this season beating Busta and Nishikori), Fognini (Beat Murray in Rome), Monfis (not in best shape, but very fresh), Cilic (Who made his best result on RG, without loosing a set). Wawrinka didn't drop a set to them, except two to Murray. I rarely am writing such a long write ups, but think that those facts deserve a mantion. Yes, Rafa is the king of clay, but Wawrinka is the king of surprises. When he won RG vs Nole, he was with pretty much the same odds and Nole was 16:0 on clay the same season before meeting Stan in the final.