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Posts posted by mrmuzeman
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Re: how long before variance kicks in? A great winning player can break even over about 25,000 hands so the answer is a LONG LONG time. Variance is greatly underestimated by most.
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Re: Project WSOP 2007 - BELIEVE!!!!! Cheers GAF. Although I meant on the actual WSOP schedule itself, the dates of the $1000 tourny I want to know. Hopefully theyll come out with the schedule in January :unsure
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Re: Who can tell me more in detail about Mellifobian posted this on another forum, really havent a clue what it means either
Hi everyone, I am new on your forum I've been reading it for a while, and decided to try my luck asking a few questions Who can tell me more in detail about the "Non Sports". Please Mail Me..!! Best Regards..!! -
Re: Biggest ever win in one hand - and question?? He did call and muck too, muck and fold are different things although people say them as the same sometimes. You can never see folded cards EVER (be sweet if you could! as long as no one could see mine :lol)
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Re: Biggest ever win in one hand - and question?? Its a neat little feature Cloud. What site was that on mate? All cryptologic software you can see mucked hands, dont know about anywhere else. I always check it when I win a pot against a mucked hand, just take a wee peak at the hand history and bingo. Its good for 2 reasons (probably more but hey ho) 1. You get to see if your reads are correct 2. The experience of seeing that players call pot sized bets with bottom pair, Ace Kicker with no heart - when theres 4 hearts on the board - is wholly satisfying
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Re: Biggest ever win in one hand - and question?? Depends what site youre playing on Cloud. Some let you see the mucked hands and some dont. Crypto for instance (WilliamHill, InterPoker etc) they let you see them in the hand history which is always nice. Ladbrokes and Prima software (bet365, StanJames etc) dont let you see mucked hands.
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Re: WSOP 2007 Schedule? I already asked the same question in the 'Project WSOP 2007 thread' but never got an answer so I presumed the answer was 'no' :lol
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Re: Min/Max Buy In http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=36196 Thats the thread, may as well have it there so we know what it was all about to start with. The talk about not being able to share opinions/give advice etc is bollocks btw (not directing that comment to the mole here, just people in general). I personally class myself able to give some advice/decent thoughts to any player on any hand if they ask for it, as can many players on here I am sure. Just cos a player is on a higher level does not make them infallable to mistakes or anything, great professionals make mistakes all the time its the way it is. I say all this cos I notice a lot of people seem to take what the mole says as gospel or something, it isnt that its just an opinion (a well informed one I am sure) and the fact he is now mainly using max buy in is proof of that.
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Re: Min/Max Buy In There was never any question in my mind max buy in was the way forward to make the most money if youre a good player. I hope we can now put that argument to rest. Anyone got a link to the old thread with the original 'argument'?
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Re: Project WSOP 2007 - BELIEVE!!!!! No more news on Event Schedules yet then guys....?
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Re: Did I play this poorly ??
Yeah as I saidNot sure how I'd get away from this one
So dont think you actually made a mistake, I just suggested alternate means of playing it that could have made you more $$$ in usual circumstances.Thing is though with that good a pot I dont think you can ever really fold that hand with any conviction with these stacks, so its just a bit unlucky really. Youve no right to not think youre good at all. -
Re: Please analyze this? 7BB on the button with AQ and 2 limpers before you, thats a pre flop all in if ever I saw one tbh :ok
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Re: Did I lay this poorly ?? Well you certainly ran into a hand there :\ Pre flop, spot on. I never like to see a picture paired board on the flop when you hold an overpair. BUT its rainbow which means you can play it differently if you want to when you hold AA or KK (only those 2). Non rainbow and you must bet/go all in I think. You can either check and hope the other guy bets (if he does he aint got it and youre good) then check raise all in. If he checks behind theres hardly a bad free card to give which is why you can trap here if you want. OR you can bet a weak looking CB type bet like 400/500 and hope he makes a play at you and goes all in, then you call if he does. He may fold, obviously thats fine also. If he calls hmmmm, alarm bells. OR you can just go all in and try and shut down the pot like you did. But by doing that you may only get called by a Jack here (or 33 obviously). Thing is though with that good a pot I dont think you can ever really fold that hand with any conviction with these stacks, so its just a bit unlucky really. Youve no right to not think youre good at all. The plays I mentioned above are to make more/save money in a deep stacked cash game really although you could use them in any game.
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Re: My Break is Over..... The odds of a bad beat story appearing in this thread before the night is done; 4/11
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Re: had to share this hand Yeah in lower stakes games I dont like the call tbh. I wouldnt call with KK there with these deep stacks personally. But then at these stakes shorthanded some crazy shit goes on. He still could have folded though, I would have put Mole on a PP since he limped UTG then called a raise (its usually a PP no higher than JJ when someone does that). So a set looks a fair bet. I knew someone at these stakes had a mega deep stacked pot, they each had like 300bb and he had AA. He got re-reraised all in on a 3 to the flush flop with no A of that suit, totally sick and usually youd be thinking a definite set or a flush for the other guy there especially on this deep a hand. But he plays at these levels for a living and felt the guy was on a mere flush draw and playing at him so he called and all the guy had had a Q high flush draw with J kicker so he was right. He hit it too :puke
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Re: had to share this hand Its a different game at that level really Fools. Players are capable of going all in like Mole did with nothing but a flush draw there, sick but true. Huge pot mate, buy yourself a car :lol Sick preflop call though for $750, id hate to play 1010 preflop for $750 :lol Still if the guy never lays down big pairs then its the right call, just a sick amount to pay to flop a set. Lucky you were both double stacked or you couldnt have called that.
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Re: Flush on the flop. What do you do? Same kind of thing really. Queen is a decent enough card to come off too. The most likely hands for the 2 to have are one on a flush draw and the other with top pair so a good bet is in order. Pot is 240 I think so id bet 200.
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Re: Flush on the flop. What do you do? Ok I sort of see what youre saying, its a bit bloody confusing actually working that dual flush shit out. Anyway I dont think its too important the exact stat, its still very rare there will be another made flush out there. So I think were both agreed to bet good here, about 100 I think. I dont see any other play being reasonable. A checkraise just alerts people to the strength of your hand. A check could result in every one else checking and people drawing another spade for free. A small bet could result in people drawing too cheap and not making top pairs pay you off nicely etc etc. I think a 3/4 to pot size bet is the only way to go here, pretty standard stuff imo.
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Re: Flush on the flop. What do you do?
Hows that work? If 2 of you hold spades it makes it even more unlikely for 3 spades to fall on the flop surelyHowever, I think you're discounting the odds of someoone else having a flush too much as well ..... the odds of someone flopping a flush GIVEN that you have a 3 flush on the board will be FAR less than 120-1..... -
Re: Flush on the flop. What do you do?
Eh? How is a flopped flush not strong? Pretty strong imo. Bet 100. Makes Ks pay and top pair A will never think you have a flush and potentially raise you and at the least call.Having said that, you are NOT that strong ..... so you're not wanting to build a big pot..... A bit of a paradox in poker (and one I struggle with) - do you make your opponents pay for their draws (i.e. bet big) or do you acknowledge your weakness and control the pot size (i.e. dont bet big)
It really is improbable enough not to worry about. Whats the chances of flopping a flush, 120/1 or summat? the 2 of you doing it, pretty unlikely really not worth worrying about tbh.With 4 opponents, there WILL be higher spades out there - so the danger is real!! (and not that improbable that someone already has a higher made flush!!) -
Re: Some advice on whether this was the right move or not Totally legitimate mate. You COULD fold cos the odds arent tremendous but then again it is OK to call also, I wouldnt say either is a mistake here. hes just pissed you beat him, what did he have out of interest
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Re: Daily MTT Winnings - Thursday 30th November Sorry about that mate one of those things! If id have posted 5 minutes earlier youd have seen it, if id have posted 5 minutes later id be adding it into Thursdays thread :lol
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Re: Daily MTT Winnings - Wednesday 29th November Tot this into your totals if you want dudes
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Re: Midlands Masters Its 3rd to bottom on mine :ok :(
value of a flush draw
in Poker
Posted
Re: value of a flush draw
If the flop brings a Q that could easily be good against just 2 others, less likely to be so against more players, would be all I would say in the defence there. Id fold preflop personally but its not like some horror error to complete either I dont think and see if you can flop a Q or flush draw (or obviously bigger than this though thats very unlikely). I think perhaps the fact you were on the bubble would definitely lead me more towards a fold though. As played, with 1.8k in the ze pot and around 3k stack remaining its definitely an all in situation that is called for. With this flush draw and small stack you definitely have to play this hand through no question and if you check here, it is very likely one of them will bet imo and then youll have to go all in over the top and they will never fold for the small amount more it will be. You take away all your fold equity by checking and not going all in. I would estimate that the 2 players would fold at least half the time there to your all in bet. Your all in bet looks like you have the flush draw or the King to me. So therefore without an A or K or flush draw themselves they will fold which will be a fair wedge of the time and you win a lovely uncontested pot.