Swiss Maestro
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Posts posted by Swiss Maestro
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Cilic 100%. Capable of the best and also the worst. I was very confident Croatia was going to win this, but I thought they were going to need Mektic/Pavic to close it.
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1 hour ago, Foo_Fighter said:
Jordan Thompson vs Tallon Griekspoor
Alex de Minaur vs Botic van de Zandschulp
I'm not gonna bet today. ??
The winner of the Croatia - Spain will face the winner of these 2. The no presence of Kokkinakis (Australia) and Alcaraz (Spain) clearly benefits Croatia. IMO, their chances for reaching the Final now are big.
- CzechPunter and Foo_Fighter
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I'm not a football fan, but Argentina losing to Saudi Arabia (World Cup) was not expected, right? ?
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Good choices. This is how I see the matches.
Spain vs Croatia. I think the only way for Spain to win this is winning the 2 single points, which is unlikely to happen. Mektic/Pavic are so much better than Granollers/Pedro..., so if Cilic or Coric get a point then Mektic/Pavic should finish the job with ease.
Italy vs USA. Tiafoe and Fritz are the favorite against Sonego and Musetti. They even are the favorites for the doubles point... cause I think Sock/Paul are better than Fognini/Bolelli.
Germany vs Canada. Shapo and Auger are the favorites against Struff and Otte. Germany has a really good doubles pair (Krawietz/Puetz), so things can get ugly for Canada if the germans get a point in the singles. If that happens, I expect Shapo and Felix to play the doubles cause they have demonstrated a really good chemistry. As I said, the germans will need to get a point in the singles but that won't be easy. If they can do that, then I think it will be a 50/50.
Australia vs Netherlands. 50/50.
- Foo_Fighter and amity
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1 hour ago, adastra said:
Regarding Felix, did anyone notice any fatigue or even an indicator of injury or illness (e.g. coughing) in his last match? (Yes, I'm a bit surprised by the odds, a bit too high for Felix).
1.40-1.45 against Tiafoe and you think the odds for Felix are high ? ? Obviously you missed the match he played against Ymer. You should take a look at that match. He was a mess during the first set and the first half of the second one. As I said, he saved 2 break points when he was 1 set and 4-1 down, so he could have lost easily in 2.
Btw, what should be the proper odds for Felix? 1.25-1.30...? ?
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I'm backing Tiafoe (vs. Felix) at 2.75 with William Hill
These odds are insane. I agree Felix should be the favourite player, but not at these odds. Felix has won 3 consecutive tournaments and he's in a 15 winning streak, so we can say he's the most in-form player..., Despite that, I did not like what I saw from him in his match against Ymer. He was 1 set and 4-1 down..., and he even had to face 2 break points which means he could have been 1 set and 5-1 down. In other words, he was super close to lose 7-6, 6-1 against Ymer.
Tiafoe is in the best moment of his career. Semifinals in the US Open, Final in Tokyo and he comes from beating Sonego, Drapper and De Minaur, all of them in straight sets.
As I said, Felix should be the favourite player, but not at these odds. These odds are insane.
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11 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
Well, looks like we've got it right @Swiss Maestro, just the final part of the puzzle today!
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3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
Well now I'm tempted by Linette, but boy, was that a bad performance by Fernandez. What I like more, however, is Medvedev to beat Sinner at 1.47 with Unibet. Sinner looked a bit shaky yesterday, and Medvedev has been turning things around since Metz.
I saw both players' last matches and I agree. I really like how Medvedev played against Thiem. Thiem played really well but he still lost in 2 sets. Sinner was not comfortable at all against Fran. I even had the feeling that he could lose against him despite the odds. Sinner had to face a break point in the first set when the score was 4-4...
Maybe the best option here is Medvedev to win the whole thing at 2.62 with bet365. Despite Sinner's problems to beat Fran, IMO he's still the bigger threat to Medvedev.
Medvedev will face Giron or Dimitrov in the SFs. I'm impressed with how Dimitrov played against Rublev, but Grigor was playing crap before coming here and a couple of good matches do not change that. Giron is playing good and he's dangerous on indoors, but Medvedev is out of his league.
Evans, Shapo, Coric or Hubi in the Final. Medvedev would be a strong favourite against any of them.
Hubi is still alive only thanks to his big serve (I have seen him really nervous, probably due to the fact that he's playing for a place for the ATP Finals).
Coric is playing good but he's still far from his best form and his main target is the Davis Cup Final.
Evans and Shapo are playing really good but I don't see them beating Medvedev. Daniil has beat Shapo in straight sets the last 3 times they have played and also beat Evans (3-0) when they met in the US Open 2021, which is the only time they have played before.
If you think Medvedev will beat Sinner then I think you should take him to win the whole thing.
- LuckyLoser, CzechPunter, Foo_Fighter and 1 other
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1 hour ago, amity said:
anyone know what the heck happened to van Rijthoven this morning... was he carrying an injury or something?
Can't see how he could put in such a pathetic performance otherwise ?
I stopped watching him when he lost his serve in the first game of the second set. Pathetic. I don't know if he had something but one day hitting 25 aces and winning more than the 85% of points on both first and second serve and the next day not reaching even the 50% of points won with first serve is surreal. Disgusting. What a day
- amity, Foo_Fighter and CzechPunter
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I can't remember the last time I saw Thiem playing that well. What an exhibition!
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Garin to win a set vs. Bublik at 2.10 with bet365
I add this one. Garin returned after his wrist problems. He was destroyed by Djokovic (6-1, 6-1), but I'm not worried about that. He barely has played on indoors and he even has a negative record (4-9). Despite that, I don't think he's that bad on indoors. The last year he only played 1 match on indoors, it was in Antwerp and he lost in 3 sets to Fokina (6-4, 3-6, 3-6). In 2020, he played 2 matches, both in Vienna. He beat Wawrinka and then he lost to Thiem. In 2019 he played 6 matches, and he won 3 of them (all those victories were in the Paris Masters, where he reached the QFs). He beat Cuevas, Isner and Chardy, and he ended up losing to Dimitrov. The others 2 defeats that year were against Seppi (6-3, 7-6, 7-6) and Opelka (7-6, 7-6). As you can see, his results are not that bad..., and many of his defeats were close matches against good players.
Bublik is an excellent indoor player and he has had really good results recently (Final in Metz), but this is a minor event and I have some doubts about his implication... As I said, he recently reached the Final in Metz and then he played in Astana, where he lost to Hubi. That's why I have some doubts, this is a minor tournament and he arrives after playing home and reaching a good result in Metz. Garin is in more need of wins and points than Bublik does and we all know Bublik only plays for the money. They have played 2 times and Garin won both, but both matches were on clay.
At odds above 2.00 I think is value. I wouldn't take this under 2.00
- Foo_Fighter, four-leaf and CzechPunter
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van Rijthoven (+2.5 Games) to beat M.Ymer at 1.65 with Marathonbet
I expect a close match here. Both are really good indoor players. Ymer has dropped a set against Gojo, while Tim has won his 2 matches in straight sets. IMO, this is a 50/50 match, but I think Tim's big serve can make the difference here. In his last match here he did 25 aces and he won the 87% of points on serve (48-55). I don't expect Tim to lose this one easily, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him losing in 2 or 3 tight sets. (just a few days ago, he lost in Sofia 7-6, 7-6 against Rune). That's why I take this handicap. It will cover that result from his recent match against Rune, and it also should cover a 3 sets loss match.
I also have seen this bet on betfair, also at 1.65.
In Pinnacle the +2.0 is at 1.73.
- CzechPunter, amity and Foo_Fighter
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47 minutes ago, Foo_Fighter said:
Thanks but I was awfully wrong on the other match though. Thought Tsitsipas would manage to win a set... the guy didn't even earned a break point chance.
He started really well. Actually, it was him who dominated the majority of the points during the first games. I think that's reason he lost his serve in the 8th game... Probably, he thought: "I'm playing really well and I'm still 3-4..., what's this??" It's a really frustrating feeling. That's what I think after seeing how he lost his serve. I thought he really had a chance after watching the first games. Djokovic has barely played and he's rested and hungry.
- Foo_Fighter and amity
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7 hours ago, Foo_Fighter said:
Taylor Fritz to beat Frances Tiafoe at 1.72 with bet365
Nice call!
I had my doubts cause Tiafoe is in the best moment of his career, but I also think Fritz is the better player and the h2h speaks by itself, as you mentioned.
It's been a close first set, but Fritz has been a little bit more aggressive and that has made the difference.
In the second set Fritz has been clearly the better player but Tiafoe managed to save all those break opportunities... Unlike Fritz, Tiafoe suffered in almost all of his service games so Fritz clearly deserved the straight sets win. Fortunately, Fritz had no problems to win that second tie-break. It wouldn't have been fair to Fritz to go to a third set.
It's never easy to face a player who has beat you the last 4 times, as you said. Again, nice call!
I really like Fritz backhand. I would love to see a backhand battle between Sascha and Fritz peak versions... that would be epic.
- Foo_Fighter and amity
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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:
Sakkari had a shocker today, Parks is having the best days of her life!
59 winners... I have seen a little bit of her 2 last matches and she's definitely on fire. Sakkari has nothing to be ashamed of. There's nothing much you can do when your rival hits 60 winners. She even went for aces on second serves. Let's see how long she can maintain this level.
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5 hours ago, Swiss Maestro said:
Pedro Martinez to beat Munar at 2.75 with bet365 may be a good one.
Pedro broke an 8 losing streak after beating Popyrin in 2 sets. Munar beat Ruud in 2 sets. Obviously, Munar has had better results recently, but there are couple of facts that make me think Pedro can win this. Firstly, the h2h. Pedro leads it 4-1 and he has won the last 3 matches (2020-2022). None of these players is a good hard court player but I think Pedro's game suits on this surface a little bit more than Munar's. Besides, both players know each other very well and when this happens matches tend to be more equal.
What a roller coaster! Pedro had 2 break points in the first set to get a double break but he wasted them and he ended up losing the set... In the second, he won 6 straight games after losing the first 3. In the final set, Munar started cramping and he could do absolutely nothing...
@neilovan I know Munar was playing better, but IMO the h2h (5-1, now) and the fact Pedro's game suits better on hard courts than Munar's neutralized that. They know really well each other and when that happens the matches are more equal (trust me, it's a fact). Regardless of what happened to Munar in the third set I think Pedro at 2.75 was value.
- CzechPunter, four-leaf and Foo_Fighter
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Pedro Martinez to beat Munar at 2.75 with bet365 may be a good one.
Pedro broke an 8 losing streak after beating Popyrin in 2 sets. Munar beat Ruud in 2 sets. Obviously, Munar has had better results recently, but there are couple of facts that make me think Pedro can win this. Firstly, the h2h. Pedro leads it 4-1 and he has won the last 3 matches (2020-2022). None of these players is a good hard court player but I think Pedro's game suits on this surface a little bit more than Munar's. Besides, both players know each other very well and when this happens matches tend to be more equal.
- Foo_Fighter and four-leaf
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2 hours ago, neilovan said:
Amazing to see the world #1 and the world #3 lose in the same day. Alcaraz was 1.1 to 10 and Ruud was about 1.6 to 10 . At 1.1 to 10 I am not betting but those are unreal results.
Just before the Final of the US Open I made a post about these 2 players and the fact that they were playing for the world number 1 spot.
Ruud is not a gifted a player, he's just a good clay court player. That's all. He's not good on fast courts and I think he's run in the USO is deceptive. He could have lost against Paul in 4 sets in his third round match. IMO, his only big achievement was beating Khachanov. I do not rate his victory against Matteo because Matteo was miles away from his best form. Ruud has no a big serve and his game lacks aggression. I also have seen him today. 18 unforced errors in the first set. I don't know how many he did in the second set, but you can expect a similar number. A player whose bigger weapon is his consistency doing more than 30 UE in 2 sets. Bravo! ?
In relation to Alcaraz, he doesn't lack aggression but he definitely lacks a big serve and (sometimes) the patience to build points. I think he can be a dominant player on clay in the next years, but not on hard and even less on grass.
1 hour ago, neilovan said:I cannot see Martic losing to Fruhvirtova. She is a really smart player. Court craft excellent, and she does not beat herself. Cannot see her being overpowered here. My feeling is she frustrates the opponent and her experience gets her a comfortable win.
Linda needs a serve, otherwise she won't achieve big things.
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3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
For today, I very much like Karatsev over Zheng at 1.93 with Pinnacle, even despite his awful form book. Essentially home conditions for him, and he's still losing mainly against better players than Zheng is beating, plus the quality is still there.
Wow! It takes a lot of value to bet on Aslan at this particular moment. He's in a disastrous losing streak (1-9) and he even lost in Tel Aviv to Etcheverry, a player who only has won 2 ATP main draw matches on hard in his entire career (the other win is against another pure claycourter, Facundo Mena...).
Now, add to that the Aslan's dark record of match f***** and you definitely will get an explosive cocktail. I have censored the word but all the punters who know Aslan will know what word goes there.2 hours ago, sterziyskii said:What do you guys think about Khachanov, Cilic and Evans for tomorrow?
Well, Khachanov was impressive in the US Open and he's really good playing on hard indoor courts. Actually, the only Masters 1000 he has won is played on indoors (2018 Paris Masters). Something you should be worried about if you want to bet on him is why he neither played in Metz nor Tel Aviv. Did he want to rest? Or it was some kind of physical problem? Who knows... but it's been a month since his last match. Cressy returned in Tel Aviv after his injury during his first round match in the US Open. He beat Korda in straight sets and that was a pretty convincing victory... Then, he lost to Lestienne in 3 tight sets (7-6, 3-6, 6-7). He was impressive on serve (he only faced 1 BP in the whole match).
Honestly, it's really hard to predict. Cressy will give no rhythm to Karen. IMO, this is the kind of match you shouldn't get involved unless the odds are really good.In relation to the Cilic-Otte match, it's another match with some red flags. Cilic is playing good and he reached the Final in Tel Aviv. Otte reached the doubles final in Sofia..., so I can say neither Cilic nor Otte will have the proper training for their first round match here. If you think Cilic can play well 2 straight weeks then that's your player. In any case, it's a match with some red flags for the reasons I've explained. EDIT. I forgot to mention the horrible losing streak of Otte in singles, but I'm sure you are aware of that.
Finally, the Evans' match. I think he should beat Albot easily. It would be a surprise if he lost to him.
- rainz, sterziyskii, amity and 4 others
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1 hour ago, MinellaWorksop said:
So really, I do feel the odds should be a lot closer, so why didn't I bet Huesler you ask? Well, I'm presuming the bookmakers may know something I don't so I am favouring with Rune. It could be the Huesler value was staring me right in the face. Though only time will tell and this all adds up to the fascinating threads to this intriguing final matchup.
Rune is ranked 26, while Huesler is ranked 74 and never has been in the Top 50. That's the reason. Bookies give a lot of importance to the rankings, which is completely normal cause you only get a good ranking by winning matches and tournaments. Sometimes rankings do not reflect the real level of the players, but that's not the case here.
I have seen both players and I'm really impressed by both players' level. Both players have dominated their matches with their serve, which is completely important when you play on this surface. Rune is the favourite player cause he's overall better player and has the better ranking, as simple as that. With that being said, Huesler enjoys this surface more than Rune does and if both players keep serving as well as they have done till now, then we'll have a really tight match.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not questioning your bet. I just want to explain to you why Rune has these odds. The bookmakers don't have any kind of "secret" information.
- MinellaWorksop and rainz
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9 hours ago, Swiss Maestro said:
Jarry to beat Ruud at 5.00 with bet365
I know it's a difficult one..., but I think the odds are not well placed. Ruud has just played the Laver Cup and this will be his first match here. Jarry, however, has already played 3 matches. The players he has faced are not elite players..., but he has won all of them in straight sets and his serve has not been broken yet. These courts are super fast and Jarry is enjoying them with his big serve.
As I said, it won't be easy and if it happens it probably will be via tie-breaks. Jarry needs to get to the last games with his serve intact, and if he does Ruud can get nervous and then Jarry will stand a chance..
Jarry took the second set but the bet was lost when Jarry was broke in the 6th game of the third set.
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It does not look good... Being broken in his first 2 games..? Cmon...
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Jarry to beat Ruud at 5.00 with bet365
I know it's a difficult one..., but I think the odds are not well placed. Ruud has just played the Laver Cup and this will be his first match here. Jarry, however, has already played 3 matches. The players he has faced are not elite players..., but he has won all of them in straight sets and his serve has not been broken yet. These courts are super fast and Jarry is enjoying them with his big serve.
As I said, it won't be easy and if it happens it probably will be via tie-breaks. Jarry needs to get to the last games with his serve intact, and if he does Ruud can get nervous and then Jarry will stand a chance..
- CzechPunter, amity, Foo_Fighter and 1 other
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@Foo_Fighter Congratulations! Thanks, mate!
Tennis Tips - November 21 - November 27
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted · Edited by Swiss Maestro
You have a really good eye for tennis players! Fokina is one of the most talented players we have had in the last decade. If tennis was all technique, Fokina would be a Top 10 player. The problem with him is his mentality and his physical conditions.
He relapsed from his knee injury, that's why he's not here.
@CzechPunter When I and @Foo_Fighter made our initial posts, USA was at 1.61 (bet365). Now, odds have dropped to 1.28 (bet365).