In Play Race Reader

ON THE RIVER won yesteday at 3/1 + 3 losers for a breakeven day.
Current profit 5.54 points.
Top rated today is Crystal Delight but that was achieved on the AW.
2nd top rated in that race is DUAL IDENTITY and it is top rated on todays good going. Available at 6/1, I'll have a bet at BSP.
Top rated in total and on the going are
Epsom 3.55 WYNTER WILDES 15/1 - Ladbrokes EW (4 places)
Epsom 4.30 MIDAIR 5/4 - BSP
Epsom 5.05 MR BALOO 10/3 - BSP
Yarmouth 2.00 READY OR NOT 8/1 - BETMGM
Yarmouth 4.20 SPANISH MANE 80/1 - BETMGM EW (4 places)
Yarmouth 5.25 BATCHELOR BOY 5/1 - BSP
 

I would have pace of race as my number one,past form and potential pace for todays race 

Never played scrabble in my life! We'll have to agree to differ but I'll be carrying on with the single word approach happy that I'm either right or at the cutting edge of evolving the language.
The bookies tend towards going with it being one word if you want the ultimate arbiter who we all have absolute trust in. 

I would have pace of race as my number one,past form and potential pace for todays race 

Top rated in the 2.05 at Newbury
REGAL JUBILEE 9/2 - BSP

Also top rated today both in total and on todays going are :-
Brighton 5.15 DULCET SPIRIT 11/1 - BSP
Brighton 7.50 LETTER OF THE LAW 14/1 - Ladbrokes EW (4 places)
Nottingham 5.25 STALLONE 12/1 - BSP
Thirsk 6.05 COLD STARE 17/2 - BSP
 

Current profit 0.07 points
Top rated today is AL QAREEM in the 1.30 at Newbury based on last Septembers win at Chester in a listed contest. That was on todays going. Slight increase in class so odds of 13/2 at Ladbrokes seems reasonable.

A poor day yesterday.
Todays top rated is ORAZIO in the 1.50. That was on soft going, it has never run on good going before so I will discount it.
In the same race SIGNIFICANTLY is joint 2nd top rated and also top rated on good going. I have had £1 EW (5 places) at 11/1 with Ladbrokes.
In the 4.45 I have BOLSENA top rated both overall and on todays going. Best price is 11/2 but with a bookie I can't bet with so I've had £2 win at BSP.
In the 3.00 I have THE FOXES and REGAL REALITY joint top rated on both counts. REGAL REALITY is available at higher odds so I will have £2 win at 12/1 with BETMGM.

255 Newmarket 
Bopedro. 8.8 10/1 
Dutch decoy.  8.8 16/1 
Hafeet Alain. 8.5 14/1 
Tricky race this one ....I'm not a huge fan of backing older horses and all these are of the older generation but computer is saying to back these even though they haven't got brill form .....gonna be an interesting one ....5pt Ew top 2 .....forecasts all 3 

Top rated today is Bedford Flyer but that was achieved on the AW so I'll give that one a miss.
Best on todays going is Spring Bloom in the 1.50. It achieved the top rating over todays distance. It is 6th top rated overall but a lot of those above it achieved their ratings on the AW.
It is available at 12/1 4 places so I'll go mad and have £1 each way (it's always good to have some skin in the game).
In the 3.30 Boiling Point is top rated on todays going and 2nd top rated overall. £2 win with Ladbrokes at 17/20.
In the 5.15 Rating is top rated on good and 2nd overall. £2 with Ladbrokes at 15/2.
 

First bit of flat racing today at Yarmouth
Going Good To Firm which after all the rain elsewhere is a surprise
My top rated today is Angle Land, I have it 4 lengths ahead of the next best. However that rating was on soft going so I will discount it on that basis.
The next best are all close together so no bet for me, I will not try and force a bet.

That's fantastic, thank you.
I'm doing OK, 3 more months of chemo and then hopefully be in remission for a bit.

Sorry to hear that Michael ....I hope it's going well ....win or lose I'll make a donation in coming days ...even more so if kittts light wins as I'll see that as fate 🤞

I am also fighting leukemia, the medical advances over the last 10 years have been fantastic and without them I wouldn't be alive today. I will be donating any winnings to https://bloodcancer.org.uk/ they do fantastic work. Any donations will be gratefully received.

Still in the trial stage but here is thes top bet at today's turf meeting at Thirsk.
3.15 BURJ MALINKA - best speed figure obtained on good to firm going but also has the best speed rating in the race achieved on soft going (April last year). Top weight but last won off a rating of 62 compared to today's rating of 61. Current odds 7/2 favourite. Only slight question mark is that the race on soft going was over 5f rather than 6f.
 
 
 

Indeed, if only I'd discovered it earlier !

You’ll be hooked to SR now pal 😁

Still very much in the testing stage but my top rated horse today is Blind Beggar in the 3.43 at Bath.
It obtained its best speed figure last May at Leicester on going described as Soft (Heavy In Places) so today's heavy going shouldn't be an issue. That was over 6 furlongs but it has won over today's distance of 5 furlongs twice since then.
Last won off a rating of 84 so today's rating of 82 is not an issue.
Available at 12/1 so perhaps worth a small bet.

It is a good time to look back and take stock, including of one aspect of all-weather racing which tends to be misrepresented. That is the nature of the surfaces on which the horses race, and in particular those surfaces’ speeds as inferred from the times recorded on them.
It is a myth that the speeds of all-weather surfaces do not vary, though they do avoid the real extremes that sometimes occur on turf.
That has not stopped every last all-weather fixture run so far this year from being described officially as “standard ” at Chelmsford, Lingfield, Newcastle, Southwell and Wolverhampton, and all 18 meetings in that time at Kempton from being described as “standard to slow”.
Time analysis paints a different picture of regular variations in implied surface speeds, some of them far from negligible.
A going allowance can be calculated which reflects the ability a horse would have to show to equal standard time, carrying weight-for-age in a well-run race, with lower indicating quicker conditions and higher the opposite.
This is how they look, summarised for all meetings in January to March inclusive in 2024. Where different time-based going allowances existed on the same card (such as following in-card track maintenance), the figure for the first race has been used.
 
Overall, there is agreement between time-based going allowances and official going descriptions 58.9% of the time, which leaves nearly half that are inaccurate as judged by such means. Wolverhampton easily leads the way in being “correct” 83.3% of the time.
Another way of looking at the data is to consider the maximum and minimum going allowances at each course, the range (the difference between maximum and minimum), and the standard deviation (which is a traditional measure of variance).
 
Wolverhampton and Lingfield perform best in terms of narrowness of range and lowness of standard deviation. They could arguably justify their unswervingly uniform approach to going description - the other courses less so.
As an illustration, a range of 50lb is equivalent to the difference between “good to soft” and “good to firm, tending to firm” on turf, or the difference between Frankel running a given time and a 90-rated handicapper doing the same.
Newcastle is a rather tricky case, in which wind sometimes plays a major part on its straight mile, which I have allowed for as much as possible. Unfortunately, British racing has ignored requests to record wind speed and direction as a matter of course as races are run, and nor does it publicise significant in-card track maintenance.
Even if you treat Newcastle as an outlier, 35% of other cards seem to have been miscategorised. Incidentally, the going allowance there on All-Weather Finals Day was 93 on my figures, or just about slap bang in the middle of “standard”, as described.
Either way, you can be sure that track conditions vary a good deal more than the official version would have you believe, and this has implications for speed, stamina, sectionals, race-positioning, distance betting, handicapping, times, in-play betting, and more besides.
Perhaps British racing will one day acknowledge that these things matter to those who bet on the sport and thereby help to keep the show on the road. But I won’t be holding my breath.

Sectional Spotlight Sectional Spotlight Blog Archive
Dubai World Cup and all-weather surfaces
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
The Flat is back!
Tuesday, 26th March 2024
Cheltenham 2024: Day three & day four review
Saturday, 16th March 2024
Cheltenham 2024: Day one & day two review
Thursday, 14th March 2024
Dublin Racing Festival reflections
Tuesday, 6th February 2024
Shake up in Supreme and Ryanair markets
Tuesday, 16th January 2024
The Road to Cheltenham
Tuesday, 9th January 2024
Festive round-up
Wednesday, 3rd January 2024
More blog posts Other Blogs
Hollie Doyle
Thursday, 4th April 2024
Hong Kong Diary
Thursday, 4th April 2024
Sectional Spotlight
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
Kevin Blake
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
Eyecatchers
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
Surfing The Sand
Saturday, 30th March 2024
Betfair Ambassadors
Saturday, 30th March 2024
Saturday Horses to Follow: Doncaster
Friday, 22nd March 2024
Jamie Lynch
Thursday, 21st March 2024
Declan Rix
Thursday, 21st March 2024
More Blogs

Sounds a good test, I'm almost at a stage where I will be able to rate all races.

It is a good time to look back and take stock, including of one aspect of all-weather racing which tends to be misrepresented. That is the nature of the surfaces on which the horses race, and in particular those surfaces’ speeds as inferred from the times recorded on them.
It is a myth that the speeds of all-weather surfaces do not vary, though they do avoid the real extremes that sometimes occur on turf.
That has not stopped every last all-weather fixture run so far this year from being described officially as “standard ” at Chelmsford, Lingfield, Newcastle, Southwell and Wolverhampton, and all 18 meetings in that time at Kempton from being described as “standard to slow”.
Time analysis paints a different picture of regular variations in implied surface speeds, some of them far from negligible.
A going allowance can be calculated which reflects the ability a horse would have to show to equal standard time, carrying weight-for-age in a well-run race, with lower indicating quicker conditions and higher the opposite.
This is how they look, summarised for all meetings in January to March inclusive in 2024. Where different time-based going allowances existed on the same card (such as following in-card track maintenance), the figure for the first race has been used.
 
Overall, there is agreement between time-based going allowances and official going descriptions 58.9% of the time, which leaves nearly half that are inaccurate as judged by such means. Wolverhampton easily leads the way in being “correct” 83.3% of the time.
Another way of looking at the data is to consider the maximum and minimum going allowances at each course, the range (the difference between maximum and minimum), and the standard deviation (which is a traditional measure of variance).
 
Wolverhampton and Lingfield perform best in terms of narrowness of range and lowness of standard deviation. They could arguably justify their unswervingly uniform approach to going description - the other courses less so.
As an illustration, a range of 50lb is equivalent to the difference between “good to soft” and “good to firm, tending to firm” on turf, or the difference between Frankel running a given time and a 90-rated handicapper doing the same.
Newcastle is a rather tricky case, in which wind sometimes plays a major part on its straight mile, which I have allowed for as much as possible. Unfortunately, British racing has ignored requests to record wind speed and direction as a matter of course as races are run, and nor does it publicise significant in-card track maintenance.
Even if you treat Newcastle as an outlier, 35% of other cards seem to have been miscategorised. Incidentally, the going allowance there on All-Weather Finals Day was 93 on my figures, or just about slap bang in the middle of “standard”, as described.
Either way, you can be sure that track conditions vary a good deal more than the official version would have you believe, and this has implications for speed, stamina, sectionals, race-positioning, distance betting, handicapping, times, in-play betting, and more besides.
Perhaps British racing will one day acknowledge that these things matter to those who bet on the sport and thereby help to keep the show on the road. But I won’t be holding my breath.

Sectional Spotlight Sectional Spotlight Blog Archive
Dubai World Cup and all-weather surfaces
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
The Flat is back!
Tuesday, 26th March 2024
Cheltenham 2024: Day three & day four review
Saturday, 16th March 2024
Cheltenham 2024: Day one & day two review
Thursday, 14th March 2024
Dublin Racing Festival reflections
Tuesday, 6th February 2024
Shake up in Supreme and Ryanair markets
Tuesday, 16th January 2024
The Road to Cheltenham
Tuesday, 9th January 2024
Festive round-up
Wednesday, 3rd January 2024
More blog posts Other Blogs
Hollie Doyle
Thursday, 4th April 2024
Hong Kong Diary
Thursday, 4th April 2024
Sectional Spotlight
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
Kevin Blake
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
Eyecatchers
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
Surfing The Sand
Saturday, 30th March 2024
Betfair Ambassadors
Saturday, 30th March 2024
Saturday Horses to Follow: Doncaster
Friday, 22nd March 2024
Jamie Lynch
Thursday, 21st March 2024
Declan Rix
Thursday, 21st March 2024
More Blogs

Yes ,I think I rated it about 78 ,,which is decent mid-top handicapper on my scale ,,but Raceform do often go big  at Newcastle,,used to always be big on Southwell’s old surface 

IMO Newcastle is a bit of an anomaly as regards Speed Ratings as most races are run at a crawl early then sprint finish especially on the round course ,if your using all races to get your going allowance there’s going to be some difficulty ,,I know raceforms SR’s for Newcastle are always out of sync,,Cover up recently won off 83 and was rated 123 ,which is par with Group 1 ,,I use race par finishes to find out which races have been close to truly run 

I've parked setting my own standard times for the time being after going round in circles many times.
I've decided initially to use the Raceform Standard Times.
So my revised method is :-
 
1. For each race compare the actual time to the standard time.
2. Convert these into seconds per mile.
3. Calculate the average variance for each class of race. This gives the seconds per mile slower than standard time by class.
 
4. For each race amend the variance by the class adjustment.
5. For each meeting calculate the average of the adjusted variances. This is the going allowance for that meeting.
6. For each race amend the variance by the going allowance. This gives the final variance.
 
This has created some interesting and unexpected numbers. In my top ten I would have expected to see the winners of the big group 1 races at Royal Ascot etc. However this is not the case. The top rated are :-
1. + 1.68. MINZALL. Haydock Group 1. No surprise here as it was a new course record. 
2. + 1.62. LIVE IN THE DREAM. Sandown Class 2 Handicap. Won 4 times from the next 14 runs at prices of 28/1, 12/1, 5/2 and 11/8. This include the Group 1 Nunthorpe at York so obviously a class horse. 
3. + 0.82. ANMAAT. Haydock Group 3. Won 2 from the next 3 at prices 23/10 and 13/10.
4. + 0.67. TANMAWWY. Ffos Las Class 3 Handicap. A poor record afterwards with 1 win at 13/8 from 7 runs before being shipped to the US. 
5. + 0.63. DUBAI MIRAGE. Salisbury Class 2 Handicap. Won 1 from the next 4 at 11/2.
6. + 0.63. GOOD LUCK FOX. Catterick Class 5 Handicap. Ran 11 times since without success (although none of them were on heavy going). Not the sort of horse you would expect to see with a high speed figure. The going was heavy and all the races were run upto 27 seconds slower. Perhaps speed figures achieved on heavy going should be ignored or at least treated with caution.
7. + 0.59. REGAL REALITY. Windsor Group 3. The time was 1.99 seconds faster than standard despite the going being good to soft. Won 1 from next 7 at 5/1.
8. + 0.43. AZANO. Redcar Class 3 Handicap. Faster than standard and also carrying top weight of 10 st 2 lbs would indicate that this was a top class performance. However only won 1 of the following 15 races at 5/1.
9. + 0.39. SHEIKH MAZ MAHOOD. From the same meeting as GOOD LUCK FOX. Won 1 from the next 4 at 15/2.
10. + 0.36. SEANTRABH. Catterick Class 5 Novice. Going was Soft (Heavy In Places). Won 1 from the next 7 at 15/2.
11 + 0.36. PYLEDRIVER. Ascot Group 1. Won 1 from next 2 at 7/2.
12 + 0.29. STAY ALERT. Newbury Group 3. Faster than standard but no success in the next 5 races (although they were all higher class races).
13 + 0.28. CHIPSTEAD. Catterick (again !) Class 2 Handicap. Won 3 from the next 14 at 16/1, 12/1 and 12/1.
 
A lot more work to do but so far looks encouraging.
 
 
 

So i was at a conference yesterday, held be a friend of mine, where an ambassador was present. I was kind of bored and picked up my phone, at the very moment i was was checking out the horses for this race the ambassador calls my friend "mister professor" in italian, and on the same instance i see the horse "Mr professor" and tell my brother, we both have a little laugh and put 5 pound ew on it. Later at night he had had one drink too many and as we recall this he goes and tries to put a silly ammount of money on it, i stopped him... Today the horse goes and wins in style. My goodness