mark22
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Posts posted by mark22
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18 hours ago, Foo_Fighter said:
IKR, Brooksby is slightly favored... due to American soil? ?
I covered this tournament pretty accurate, so here are few words about Newport. Brooksby is 31:5 this season! He is very good player for his age, I thought he is just fast court player like most Americans.. then he came to RG and made it to main draw
if that isn´t a sign then I don´t know. Maybe his serve is not so strong, but he has good strokes and he doesn´t misses a lot, has good numbers on return points won. I was also impressed by Gojowzyk number on serve, but also aware of Brooksby quality. So this result is no suprise.
Here we have very tricky pairs. Thompson is similar player, better in field than firing aces, but he is older and more experienced. I think he wasn´t tested yet on this tournament (Cressy almost took it to 3rd set) and Brooksby has some chances, but odds are too low.
In other semi-final we have Bublik, who is the best player left here in my opinion. He has strong serve, most powerful strokes. I´m just worried about his mental strength, since he delivered me some bad losses, not caring about result?? Anderson found some good form here, we already know his qualities. Beside high ace numbers he can cover court very well, especially at the net. I wouldn´t trust no one in this match, but Anderson is underdog and maybe worth of try here.
Anderson to win + total games over 22.5 @2.95 with Marathonbet
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22 minutes ago, 38sdk1 said:
I’d gone the opposite way - I was on under 21.5 games, due to recent Wimbledon finals almost exclusively going that way in the previous 13 tournaments.
I think the way that Pliskova played early on, in going a set and 3-1 down, suggested that trend was likely to continue, with one player playing the final at a level above the other. However, Barty then dropped a bit and they both ended up playing at a fairly poor level.
I think that any bet that loses when the player is a break up and only has to hold serve could be considered unlucky, and vice versa, any bet that wins from a set and a break down, could be considered lucky.
(I don’t count the second break of Barty, and failing to serve the set out at 6-5 as an unlucky loss for me, because that was a completely undeserved and fortunate break of serve for Barty, with Pliskova throwing away her service game, from 40-0 up, and with an easy volley at the net, to win the game to love.)
yeah i saw this, but you have to consider surface and easy serve holds! this line is low even if it´s women match and also H2H suggested there is big posibility of 3rd set also. Sabalenka-Pliskova was an easy over for me.. in finals there was just too many drops in the game, otherwise this would go in over also in 2 sets (at least TB in 2nd set). If I were thinking the opossite, I would gor for Barty -3.5, which would be he safest bet at the end.
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7 hours ago, 38sdk1 said:
I mean, the bet won, but I think ‘very nice tip’ isn’t really correct. I’d hope CzechPunter would agree! The bet should have lost, with Barty (deservedly) a set and a break up, and then later (not so deservedly) serving for the second set, and failing to see it out.
while most of us thinking in that way, all bet would be on edge of loss when Barty was set and break up. over 21.5 games, Pliskova over 11.5 games, Pliskova +1.5 set/+4 games were my picks. but as she won set in most H2H matches, with not really close sets, this was the right pick ? and also luck can show us sometimes, as there was almost none for me on Wimbledon.
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my comment on women´s final: watched the match till 6:5 in 2nd set, after all I saw had no hope for Pliskova.. even later bet was won, finals disappointed me. In first set there was NO Pliskova at all, serving was horrible, but she still had chance to get back like on 5:3 because of Barty doing the same. Pliskova showed all you discussed she IS NOT on this tournament, but she could be
no game plan, bad movement, missed shots, just keeping the ball in game and she even failed to do that after 4-5 shots in point. In second set Pliskova choked again, if she wouldn´t gift Barty that first break, she would won it easily. Than she played better, but had no luck when Barty hit the line 3x in one game. Top of her game was point, where she was standing near serve T, putting the ball 3 times on same spot on court, and eventualy missing cross court shot by miles?? That point would be like trailer for this match if it was a movie. Ok she got that 2nd set, but I´m sure she could win this with ease, since Barty showed nothing special to be honest. Level of tennis was just too shaky for match called finals of Wimbledon.
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Berrettini impressed me this season, no weak points in his game overall. I would say only mental side is the one he has to work on. That was seen in final against Zverev (Madrid as I remember), where he was playing great, but he was still far from winning that match. No matter Fedex made many mistakes yesterday, his UE/winners ratio was good anyway, also 70% on net points won. Even with his best game this would be very close.
Odds: 3.00 on Hurkacz, and if we compare HC line is like +3.5 games at even odds, and totals at 40.5 games! Should be like +5.5 and over 36.5 in my opinion. If you player over, he must win a set to won it. Definitely no value here for me, only if you go for higher HC line. Nice combination is Hurkacz, Hubert To Win + Total Games Over 35.5 @3.86. Berrettini should lost at least set in best case, but I think Hurkacz has chance here.
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Honestly I think most of our minds gone completely wrong way in Wimbledon. For me it started very good, now it`s the opposite. When you use all your knowledge, season is on it´s top, you have statistic, play big odds and you even get VIDEO material form almost every match (that you can´t get on every GS) and you actually see how players performs, next round pick goes totally other way.
- Johnson (not getting advantage in 5th set against Fritz)
- Ostapenko
- Linette ( vs Badosa; had 3:0/A:40 in 3rd set)
- Bublik (played excellent against Dimitrov, total blowout against Hurkacz, who looked to me as a ´´robot´´ in movement on grass)
- Juvan (HC, mentally not capable of even winning some games she should take)
- Thompson (over games vs Ivashka, who was swept later by Berettini; very good tournament till this match)
- Korda, Samsonova (also has very good feeling, at least for Samsonova)
I don´t know whether to continue or just wait for next tournaments, also on this forum is too much guessing and contrary opinions about matches. What´s your opinion? Good luck.
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Too many ´´good´´ bets today to not play.. + some combo on favorites
Garin over 37.5
Svitolina over 19.5 + Ostapenko
Siniakova + Chardy over 38.5
Johnson
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tournament started good if anyone followed some of my tips. today I combined some of yours, have one combo (korda, agut, evans all three -1.5 set HC and nakashima to win). I´ll also try with this high odd bet.
Johnson - Novak over 38.5 games + Johnson to win @3.15 with WWin
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Querrey - Carreno Busta 1 @1.80 with WWin
American showed some signs of better form in recent weeks, his game suits grass very good. Busta has 0/5 record in Wimbledon and I think he will record another one against big serving Querrey today.
Trungelliti - Bonzi; Trungelliti over 16.5 games @1.87 with WWin
Both player came through qualies, Bonzi has better results this year on grass courts and also overall. He lost set against Ferreira Sliva in last round, but he is big favorite today (1.25). I expect close match with 4 sets at least and that Trungelliti wins at least set here and in this case bet should be easily won.
GL!
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weather looks bad :) anyway, i have some tips for day 1. We have some underdogs here, who can make matches much more thight than bookies suggest.
Garin - Zapata Miralles over 36.5 games @1.78 with WWin
Evans - Lopez over 38.5 games @1.77 with Marathonbet
Garin - Zapata Miralles over 36.5 games @1.78 with WWin
Harris - Berankis over 3.5 sets @1.61 with Marathonbet
and 2 combo bets, where we could see some tight sets but I´ll also play on winner.
Khachanov To Win + Total Games Over 31.5 [email protected] with Marathonbet
Otte To Win + Total Sets Over 3.5 @3.54 with Marahonbet
good luck
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Struff is very bad on this tournament and also has bad record on grass so I wonder if he will be a threat to Medvedev: http://www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bin/player-classic.cgi?p=JanLennardStruff&f=ACareerqqB2DHalleqq
What the hell happened to Bachinger? He won 5! points on return in 2! sets.. this is crazy, if he at least retired..
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Watched both of women SF. My both picks made it to the finals, well also Sakkari would deserve it to be honest. I think this match was level above first semifinal. Zidansek simply didn`t have a chance with so many games ended with opponent break ( although she is my compatriot
), 6 breaks is just too much for that important match. I just hope Krejcikova won´t be too tired, since she has doubles SF to play.. I see good value @1.80+ odds on her win. She has much better movement on court than Pavlyuchenova and nice variety in game, Russian will lose most of long exchanges.
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Koepfer has good serve and powerful strokes, but I think he is mentally weak. That usually shows in matches against Fedex/Rafa/Nole.. I would say 3:1 for Federer.
Alcaraz - Struff over 37.5 games @1.95 with WWin
Both players play great on the tournament, have strong serve and nice game with lot of winners. Alcaraz is favored by the bookies (1.53). Struff played close match against Bagnis already, but he still won 3:0. He has more experiences on grand slams and I can´t see Alcaraz winning in straight sets, despite an easy win against Basilasvili. I won´t pick a winner, just long match with lot of games.
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awful day.. didn't want to risk further on Isner because of that last match in Acapulco and the Greek was great on clay, anyway watched the match and nice odds came in ? Tsitsipas looks incredibly nervous, haven't seen him like that. Isner is playing good and if nothing changes he can win it.
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Garin - Giron; Giron +6.5 games HC @1.70 with WWin
I'm going against Garin again. In match versus McDonald he was on the edge of elimination, he recovered from 0:2 and break in third set, in TB he even saved MP and then recovered to win 3:2. Giron made some good results on clay this season, I watched him against Andujar and he seems like reliable player, he can hold ball in the game, what could lead to Garin's errors and make this match much more thight than odds are showing.
Opelka - Medvedev over 36.5 games @1.75 with WWin
I decided to stick with good servers, since they made some very good results in this 2 months even on slow surface. Opelka won pretty easy against Martin, then with some troubles he managed to defeat Munar. Medvedev didn't impress me at all, he will be exposed to much stronger serve and strokes than against Paul. Former lacks of power in his game, what was nice seen against Korda, who was holding his serve with ease. Medvedev lost set against Paul and I think we will see some TB's here, which can cover this low line.
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Norrie - Harris over 35.5 games @1.70 with WWin
Lot was said about Norrie during past months, in first round he beat Fratangelo pretty easy, but it could be also different if American would use more than 3/12 BP he had. He lost both finals against Ramos and Tsitsipas. Harris suprised with 3:0 win against Sonego in first round, with great performance on his serve. I expect at least 4 close sets to cover this low game line.
- darko08 and CzechPunter
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12 hours ago, K8a said:
Any thought on Schwartzman / Bedene match.? + 5.5 games seems a bit to much given their current form.
+5.5 games HC is nothing given odds 1.33 on Schwartzman win for me.. this handicap can be lost with one 6:2 set, and you have at least 3 sets here. He is one of the best returners on ATP tour and he can demolish Bedene in his best form. Now it will be interesting, since Argentinian is in bad form, it all depends from his game. Bedene´s abilities all limited. Over 3.5 sets or Bedene over 17 games are better options if you decide to play on him.
One question for all of you, do you have some database of at least match highlights of RG? I can find only on official YT: https://www.youtube.com/c/rolandgarros/videos but that is just few matches per day.. I just can´t believe it´s that bad, even for challenegers there is more material
Since I don´t have time to watch matches much I would be grateful.
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Have to agree with @darko08 and @Lekker today, I go for Opelka and Mcdonald. Nothing much to add, Opelka suprised me with easy win against Martin. Munar is more defensive player, who is waiting on opponent error and against Opelka he won´t have long rallies, not much will depend from him in this match. He also isn´t good server, so he can en up like Martin i suppose.
Garin didn´t impress me in this clay season, while Mcdonald plays consistent. I expect close sets and some TB, so I rather take over 36 games @1.93, which is pretty low line for good odds and it can even go through in 3 sets.
Couacaud - Carreno Busta under 31.5 games @1.64 with Marathonbet
French is very average challenger player, who got wild card to compete on RG. In first round he beat Gerasimov, who had awful season on clay. He had good tournament in Biella, but that doesn`t mean much since this is a challenger. In his career he didn´t win a set against top 50 player yet.. Spaniard played great match against Gombos (10 games won in match), offered only 1 BP and won 75% points on his serve. Usually he doesn´t give worse players many chances or lose set, and I think gap between these two players is just too big.
- darko08 and CzechPunter
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Nice tips, good luck to everyone. I˙m also playing Khachanov-Vesely over games, it was like first pair my eyes caught
here are two more tips from me.
Van De Zandschulp - Hurkacz over 36.5 games @1.83 with Marathonbet
Hurkacz is favorite in this match, but I think we will have a close one. He managed to win only against Fabbiano in Monte Carlo on clay this season and retired last match against Musetti. Last year he lost on RG against Sandgren in 5 setter. Van de Zandschulp made through qualifications, beating Marchenko easily in last round. He has pretty good clay season and I think we will see at least 3 or 4 thight sets in this match.
Safiulin - Taberner over 3.5 set @1.68 with Marathonbet
Clash of 2 qualifiers. Safiullin suprised me with his recent results; Andreozzi, Broady and Kovalik are decent wins, so it looks like RG courts suits him this year. Taberner on the other hand has many more matches on clay, he had no trouble at all to pass Q. Also his opponents were not so good I would say. He is big favorite today, but I see this match much more close. Safiullin had good numbers on point won on his serve (67%+ in every match), so he should take at least set today and use every drop in Taberner´s game.
- darko08, CzechPunter and marzipan
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haha luck for you.. Kuznetsov was like ´´dark horse´´ for me, so no big suprise here as he is great player, who is looking for some form way too long
otherwise I agree, results are just strange. As I expected may to be even better than april, things just go down. players are totally unpredictable 
no matter playing on favorites or underdogs, at least for me.
- darko08 and CzechPunter
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11 hours ago, martsman said:
Dude won the second set just to spoil my spread. Right read, but an unlucky loss. Onwards.
just what I wanted to comment but couldn't log in yesterday.. well, this is more like good prediction but wrong bet chosen. I made this mistake in past, but then I started to avoid betting on HC lines on clay. Underdogs often take set, but are not competitive in other 2. HC lines are set too low comparing odds on victory. Better bet his is Sonego games won, if line was like 7 or 8 games, your bet is won after 2nd set and you don't care how match ends ? on other surfaces HC is more useful bet. good luck
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Khachanov - Delbonis 2 @2.08 with WWin
Khachanov is in bad form lately, he can´t rely on his serve which gets him many ´´free points´´ in combination with strong forehand. On clay he lost 3/4 matches and slow surface in Rome will be another bad thing for him. Today he has a strong opponent, Delbonis has 17 wins on clay this season, his game is very consistent. He already beat Giron and Tiafoe here, so he adapted to conditions. I watched him against Berrettini and I was suprised by his game, so here as an underdog I´ll take him.
Dellien (-3.5 games) - Mannarino @1.75 with WWin
Another pair from Rome. Dellien is decent player on clay, he crushed Bedene and Munar in quali. In first round of main tournament he got lucky with draw, because opponent is Mannarino. Player for hard/fast courts in my opinion will have troubles with conditions here, also his 0/6 record on clay in last matches won´t help him. First round exist in Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Madrid are latest results. I expect at least one very bad set from the Frenchman to help Dellien cover HC line.
- yossa6133 and CzechPunter
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2 hours ago, darko08 said:
Karatsev (2-0) to beat Humbert at 1.80 with bet365
Humbert has a negative record on clay (27-29). He never has done something remarkable on this surface. Karatsev did really well in Belgrade. He beat Bedene, Mager and Djokovic. He lost the Final against Berrettini but it was a close match (1-6, 6-3, 7-6). The conditions are similar here so I think Karatsev can do really well in Madrid.
Humbert did pretty well in Estroil if you look he is mostly hard court player, I watched him against Cecchinato.. He has strong serve and strokes, like @Life Is Windy said, surface in Madrid is much faster because of altitude (660m). So I´m aiming for some overs this week in Madrid :)
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3 hours ago, AgaRadwanska said:
Well, you worded it a little ambiguously, but yes I'll give you that.
Ramos, is, however, a VERY good clay court player, and in probably the form of his life right now. It's the consistency that is winning him matches. When you say he's not the guy for ''big matches'', that really could be said about Fokina. I've been impressed my him vs. weaker opponents, but he's never really shone that much vs the very good players - at least when I've been watching him play. Ramos however gave Rublev and Carreno-Busta very close matches - the latter of which he 100% should have closed out.
And if in your mind it's going to be a ''very close match'', then probably don't back the guy who is priced at 1.63. I only chimed in because I've watched both of them play a lot recently and was pretty bullish on Ramos.
anyway welcome and glgl ?
I didn`t say Ramos is bad on clay at all, I just doubted his mindset. Well as you said, he should beat PCB.. I remember the score. Why he didn`t? Mental strength
Only luck here was i played double with Ivashka, so loss is not big. And yeah, odds yesterday were 1.85 on Fokina. I also had long pause from betting and Spaniard is one of those players I probably don`t know well enough, so tnx for the information. Anyway I watched most of the match, Fokina had 4:1 in 2nd set, but then after few errors completely lost his head and lost 5 straight games. Ramos said after the match that this was not real picture from Fokina and that he is pretty afraid of Norrie, since he ``beat`` him on practice few days ago. Maybe useful info for tomorrow.
Otherwise Olivo was serving for first set 5:4 30:0 when Frenchman retired! 2 points left to set win, now it`s void. That is just insane, till that moment he played normally. On the other hand Ivashka took medical timeout, but didn´t retire of course..
Good luck to you too
Tennis Tips - July 12 - July 18
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Anderson to win + 20.5 games @2.25 with Marathonbet
Yesterday matches went as I predicted. Brooksby won after losing in 2nd set, Anderson was set and break down.. but then turned gear up and won with great game. In finals I bet on man who has much more experience in big matches, but I expect at least one TB and over games in this low line.
Gaio - Vilella 1 @2.17 with Marathonbet
Finals of Todi challenger. Gaio played excellent against Etcheverry yesterday, who was in good form lately. He showed no weakness on his serve, while he made many breaks on oponent strong service game. Vilella had a long match against Brazilian youngster yesterday. He lost second set, otherwise he showed nice form here. I bet on Gaio, who shouldn't be underdog, he has 7 matches in CH finals, while Vilella only 2. Gaio can count on home crowd also.