csori

Good win for Munar!
Greetje Minnen (+1.5 sets) to beat Jelena Ostapenko at 2.14 with Unibet
Well, we all know what Ostapenko is capable of, but she can also be terribly shaky, and she was close to losing against Frech for example before Magdalena completely collapsed. Importantly, Minnen looked imperious in the qualifying, and she certainly has the right style for grass with her big serve and big shots. The value is certainly with Minnen here, either on the set handicap or the outright.
Yanina Wickmayer to beat Anna Blinkova at 1.80 with Bet365
Yanina Wickmayer is on an incredible grass court run at the moment, and I can see her taking it even further in the main draw here. Blinkova did get the job done against Lisicki when I last backed her, but she did look a bit shaky here and there, and I'm not the biggest fan of her game style on grass.

Lukas Klein to beat Andrej Martin at 1.83 with Pinnacle
I liked Klein in the qualifying and I actually had no idea that he holds a 3-0 record against Martin in the H2H department. That's why I like him at this price here. He's aggressive and he's used to the courts by now after beating 3 solid opponents in Collarini, Seyboth Wild and Escobedo.

Daniel Evans to beat Jeremy Chardy at 1.72 with Pinnacle
One seriously has to wonder how Chardy got to this stage. Cilic should've won easily against him, yet it went to three sets and the Croat missed several match points. Other opponents then more or less forgot to show up as well. Living a charmed life is the Frenchman, but Evans should be the roadblock to finally stop him. I was expecting something in the line of 1.57, Evans is the superior player at this point.

Brandon Nakashima to beat Maximilian Marterer at 1.61 with Unibet
The odds are pretty short, but I saw Marterer yesterday against Fabbiano and there wasn't anything I liked. He served average for such a big man and he wasn't finishing points when he should be, low on confidence. Nakashima has certainly looked better than him in recent times and is the better player overall as well, so I think there's slight value even in this price.

I opt for Muguruza AH -1.5 sets @1,9 (Betfirst)
Just a bit worried as Van Uytvanck did already play a match here.

BTW, I also like Pavlyuchenkova to win against Sevastova. Pavlyuchenkova loves Australia conditions. In 2020 she reached the QF of the AO, beating Stojanovic, Townsend, Karolina Pliskova and Kerber. She lost against Muguruza. I still rememeber that match... She lost because Muguruza destroyed her everytime she played with second serves... but despite that she played well and troubled Muguruza so much. In 2019 she also reached the QF, beating Puig, Bertens, Sasnovich and Stephens. In her first round here she has destroyed Doi (6-1, 6-4). Sevastova is in a very bad form... she ended 2020 with a negative record (6-13), including a 1-9 on hard courts... she even lost 6-1, 6-1 against Tomjlanovic in the AO...! And she also lost in the first round in Brisbane (vs Kenin) and Adelaide (vs Vekic). She also lost in the 1st round in Dubai against Vondrousova (3-6, 2-6), in Doha against Kontaveit (4-6, 6-7) and in Cincinnati against Mladenovic (3-6, 4-6). Her only match won on hard was in the US Open against Gauff, in a 3 set match drama. After that she lost in 2 sets against Kostyuk. In Abu Dhabi she lost in the 1st round against Badosa. She has won her first match here against Brengle (6-4, 6-2) but she's in a very bad form and everyone who has watched her recently will know... IMO Pavlyuchenkova should win this match, she's overall in better form and the conditions favor her so much more than Sevastova. Another interesting fact is that Pavlyuchenkova leads the h2h with Sevastova by a 7-0...! and Sevastova has only won 2 sets on those 7 matches... Pavlyuchenkova to beat Sevastova is paid at 1.42 with betfair

Dane Sweeney to beat Ji Sung Nam at 2.30 with William Hill
Sweeney is a glass cannon that can lose to anyone, but he tends to perform well on home ground and he looked surprisingly good in the AO qualifiers, so I think that there's some value in these odds. I'd have it 50/50 and it will be down to Sweeney, as Nam is an average player. Last year, Sweeney beat the likes of J-P Smith and Santillan, while he had two good performances against Copil and Stakhovsky in 2021 already. Slight value, but worth taking imo, let's hope it won't end like Li Tu.
Katie Boulter (+6) to beat Cori Gauff at 1.78 with Pinnacle
Gauff had a very long and tiring match against Teichmann yesterday, two TBs and she won't have that much time to recover. She's obviously the superior player of the two, but Boulter is capable of playing well and had an easy match yesterday, winning quickly as an underdog. She can play decent tennis and even troubled Svitolina in Australia last year if I remember correctly. If Gauff continues producing as many cheap mistakes as she did yesterday, Boulter will have every chance imo. The games handicap looks like the safest bet.

Aryna Sabalenka to win the 2nd quarter at 2.10 with bet365
Taking a look at this market this is the one i like the most for this tournament.
In the 1st quarter Halep is priced at 1.66 but she will have to face Swiatek or Alexandrova and she can lose against them, especially against the pole, who already beat her in the Final of RG by a 6-1, 6-2, so IMO there is no value on her at all at 1.66.
The 3rd quarter is the most unpredicatble because we have Svitolina (2.30) and Mertens (2.62), or even Ostapenko (6.50) and Garcia (8.00), who IMO can beat the first 2 players if they have a good day.
In the 4th quarter we have Naomi Osaka as the most favorite player (1.90) but I see some players there that can beat her, as Gauff (4.00), the player who pulled her off the AO in 2020 in 2 sets, or Konta (6.00).
In the 2nd quarter we have 2 big favorite players, Sabalenka (2.10) and Muchova (2.30), and then we have Kasatkina (8.50). Sabalenka is currently in a 15 winning streak. That winning streak started in Ostrava (Gauff, Sorribes, Brady and Azarenka). Then was Linz (Paolini, Voegle, Dodin, Krejcikova and Mertens) and finally Abu Dhabi (Hercog, Tomjlanovic, Jabeur, Rybakina, Sakkari and Kudermetova), where only Rybakina was capable of taking a set from her. Tomorrow she will play against Kanepi, the giant killer. Kanepi ended the last year winning a lot of matches but that was because she played ITF tournaments. If we take a look at how she did in big tournaments we'll see first round loses in Brisbane (vs Bouzkova), AO (vs Krejcikova) and two second round loses in the US Open (vs Jabeur) and RG (vs Mertens). She has struggled against Sharma in her first round here so I expect Sabalenka to beat her. In her second match she will face Kasatkina or Hercog. To be honest, I'm more afraid of Kanepi than these 2 players. Hercog was one of the players she beat in Abu Dhabi (7-6, 6-2) and Kasatkina lacks the power and the serve that is needed to beat the current version of Sabalenka. The final player she will face is Paolini or Muchova, most likely Muchova. I don't think Muchova is in a good form right now... She did nothing remarkable in 2020 and even she was very poor in Australia, losing in Brisbane in the first round against Riske (2-6, 4-6) and in the second round in the AO, against Bellis (4-6, 4-6). She has destroyed McNally (6-1, 6-1) in her first round here. Let's see if that winning streak can last at least for 3 more matches... 
@K8a It's very important to do well in these preparation tournaments to have a good run in the big one. 

Garbiñe Muguruza (-4,5 Games) to beat Alison Van Uytvanck at 1.83 with bet365
Last one. Muguruza's 2020 was impressive. She ended with a 23-7 record, including a Final in the AO, beating Svitolina, Bertens Pavlyuchenkova and Halep, all of them in straight sets. She started well this year, destroying Mladenovic (6-2, 6-4) and Sasnovich (6-1, 6-4), and lost in the third round against one of the most in form players righ now, Sakkari (5-7, 4-6). IMO the return of Conchita and her new mentality makes her a clear candidate to win everything here. Van Uytvanck is not at her best. She ended 2020 with a negative record (9-12). She has never achieved good results in Australia. In 2020, she was destroyed by Ferro (2-6, 1-6) in the AO, in the 1st round. She never has won a match in the AO or even a set (7 consecutive defeats by 2-0) and she has some big loses as a double 6-0 (vs Azarenka). As I said, looks like she never liked Australia conditions... I think this is one of those matches where the spaniard destroys her opponent, letting her with only 1-5 games won.

....and you can now oppose that for an easy profit. Edit: Just for the record, I don't think that there's any value whatsoever in backing Li Tu at around 1.50. I'd rather be on Sousa at the current odds.

Since the start of the second set I knew something was wrong. The way Marchenko has thrown the match in the 9th game of the final set with 3 DF has been simply pathetic. I'm going to rest for the next ATP/WTA events that are around the corner. As I said before, I never have been a fan of these Challengers...

I bet on Zavatska's victory! That was a good tip! Thanks for!

Hi and welcome to the forum @csori!
@darko08I saw that match a well and I didn't think he was that good. Gaio was really poor, he just play solid enough, I had my doubts.

6-4, 6-2. Easy victory for Lorenzi. As I said, there is never value on a player that has been out of the courts for a long time...No matter how juicy the odds are... This particular case was even more clear because Altmaier contracted Covid during the first week of January. I'm really happy with this one. A prove of how much profit you can make in tennis if you have the right info!

Katarina Zavatska (2-0) to beat Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva at 1.85 with William Hill
Andrezieux-Boutheon ITF
Kasintseva is a 15 years old player who won the 2020 AO Girls' Singles. She has won against Lu Jia-Jing (7-6, 6-4) in her 1st round here but IMO she's still too young to beat Zavatska. The ukranian player has won easily against Gatto-Monticone (6-4, 6-1) in her first round here. I like the fact that Zavatska won easily in the qualy of the AO against Clara Tauson (6-3, 6-3), the player who won the 2019 AO Girls' Single. Tauson is 3 years older than Kasintseva and she's currently so much better player than her. She even has won the Fujairah ITF 2021, beating players like Gasanova or Golubic in the Final. I watched her and the current level of Tauson is really high.

Paolo Lorenzi (+4.5 Games) to beat Daniel Altmaier at 1.83 with bet365
I'm not agree with these odds. Probably you will remember this player for his incredible run in RG 2020, where he beat Feliciano, Struff and Berrettini, all of them in straight sets... He finally lost against Carreño, also in straight sets. Well, since RG he has played 3 matches: Laaksonen (6-3, 3-6, 6-7), Gerasimov (1-6, 0-6) and Marchenko (4-6, 2-3). This will be his 1st match since October 2020, when he had to retire from his match against Marchenko due to his hip physical problems. I know Lorenzi's best days are gone, but at least he has been active and playing matches unlike the german player. 
The single victory is paid at 3.50 with bet365
Be careful, I base this bet mostly on Altmaier's lack of matches and his continued physical problems.

All depends on the player, take Del Potro for instance. The 4 times he came back from major injury, the next year he won his opening match (all ATP).

It's not impossible. I have won all the bets I have posted here since I returned, 1 month ago. This one was a trap... I had my doubts, but I finally have been fooled by the bookies. You never can take a player that has been out of the courts that long. The last time he won a match was in 2019... Unfortunately for us, Pouille was in a worse shape than we thought and his opponent was the right one to make us think that this could be his first victory. Bad deal.

I forgot to tell that Altmaier was tested positive for Covid in Argentina just a few days before he was going to play the qualy of the AO. That's the reason why he finally did not play the qualy.

Marc-Andrea Huesler (-3.5 Games) to beat Facundo Bagnis at 1.83 with Pinnacle
As I said in a previous post, Huesler did really well in 2020. He won a couple of Challengers and reached the Final in Kitzbuhel, beating good players and ending the year with an impressive 31-9. Bagnis is a pure clay courter but it shocked me anyway too see that his match against Zhang (6-4, 6-1) has been his second match on indoors of his whole career...I have watched that match and I have to say that Zhang has played very badly. Huesler has won in his first match here against Istomin (2-6, 6-2, 6-4).

Huesler just reached the Semis in Kitzbühel not the Final but yeah he should beat Bagnis today. Before the Zhang-Match the Argentinian won 2010 his last Match on hardcourt in a Challenger-Event. He is on 3-10 total here and there were losses against the #1029, 688 and 903. There is no doubt that Huesler has the best chances to win today