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The Brigadier

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  1. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to kensland in Racing chat-Saturday 15th July   
    Lucky 15.
    4.00. Newm. Biggles.   ,6/1
    3.10..York.    Sunny Liston.  13/2
    2.20. Ascot.    Jimi Hendrix.   4/1
    4.36. Newm.  Kinross.           11/4
    stk 7.50..     rtn. 975.50
    Good luck all.
    .
     
     
     
     
  2. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to pa4410 in Racing chat-Saturday 15th July   
    Chester 3.17 -  Winter Crown   4/1
    Sailsbury 7.15 - Minstral Star 11/4
  3. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to Brahmin in Racing chat-Saturday 15th July   
    Friday night....
    Great write up again by The Brigadier......not doing anything this evening, so have fresh look tomorrow ( plus we about to have our drinks /  Indian takeaway now  😂).....
    but think will go with 'instinct' again re Kevin stott / paul mulrennan / Easterby stable today worked a wonder! 
    8PM....also thank god i did not back the Brits in Paris this evening, bombed out so far with 1 race to go!.... been put in my place by Mrs as she picked big race winner Grand Prix Paris £378,000 to winner was  'Feed the flame'....  won twice before longchamp on soft / good to soft she said, what do i know 😂  
  4. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to Brahmin in Racing chat-Saturday 15th July   
    😲 im only 5 places on Betfair! BUT do have 2 accounts as 1 in my partners name 😎.......put these 3 on 'her' account 👍
  5. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to Fader in Racing chat-Saturday 15th July   
    Punters Lounge 'Super Saturday', July 15th ( ITV Broadcast Races ) Preview 👇
    if anybody is interested in being a guest on the next video podcast then please do let me know. Thanks 👍
     
  6. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to richard-westwood in Racing chat-Saturday 15th July   
    I've rated the John smiths cup 
    See the casper  9.0 8/1 
    Haunted dream  8.9 17.0 
    Spirit dancer   8.9  11.5 
    Majestic   8.4 
    Marhaba the champ 8.4 
    Tricky race and the weather could play a big part and spoil the party but I'll try 5pt wins top 3 as they are a bit clear of rest 😉 
  7. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to MCLARKE in Racing chat-Saturday 15th July   
    The final major handicap this Saturday is the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket. The race is named after Sir Charles Bunbury who introduced the 1,000 Guineas and the 2,000 Guineas.
    The race is open to 3-year-olds or older and is run over 7 furlongs. The off time is 16.00.
    20 go to post and with most bookmakers offering 5 places it makes it a good betting proposition.
     
    I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.
    Again the key stat is weight. Light weights do not perform well with those carrying less than 9st having achieved only 1 win from 69 attempts. The ideal weight range is 9st to 9st 4lbs, these horses have won 6 times from 49 starts and have delivered a profit at Betfair Starting Price of 61 points.
    Horses drawn high have the best record with 5 of the 9 winners being drawn in stalls 14 to 19.
    3- and 4-year-olds do not have a good record with 3 wins from 61 runs and a loss of 28 points.
     
    2 horses match these criteria.
    CRUYFF TURN 25/1
    BIGGLES 9/1
    I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers paying 5 places.
  8. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to MCLARKE in Racing chat-Saturday 15th July   
    The second big handicap this Saturday is the John Smith’s Cup at York. It has been sponsored by the Tadcaster based brewery since 1960, making it the longest running commercial sponsorship in British racing.
    The race is open to 3-year-olds or older and is run over 1 mile, 2 furlongs and 56 yards. The off time is 15.10.
    23 go to post and with some bookmakers offering 6 places it makes it a good betting proposition.
     
    I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.
    As is often the case, the key stat is weight. Light weights do not perform well with those carrying less than 9st 3lbs having achieved only 2 wins from 116 attempts. Those horses carrying a heavier weight have recorded 7 wins from 58 starts and have delivered a profit at Betfair Starting Price of 69 points.
    Horses drawn high do not have a good record with those drawn 12 or higher having just 2 wins from 88 attempts.
    It is best to concentrate on those horses at the lower end of the betting forecast. Those horses with forecast odds of 14/1 to 25/1 have produced 6 wins from 103 runs with a profit of 52 points.
     
     
    4 horses match these criteria.
    WHITE WOLF 14/1
    CADILLAC 16/1
    CERTAIN LAD 25/1
    PRIDE OF AMERICA 33/1
     
    I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers paying 6 places.
  9. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to MCLARKE in Racing chat-Saturday 15th July   
    For a reason only known to the race planners there are 3 heritage handicaps this Saturday with none the following Saturday. The 1st of these is the catchily titled Ascot/1711 Learning to Work Bake-Off Competition Heritage Handicap. The race is open to 3-year-olds or older and is run over the minimum distance of 5 furlongs. The off time is 13.45.
    19 go to post and with most bookmakers offering 5 places it makes it a good betting proposition.
     
    I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.
    Avoid outsiders. There have been 89 runners with forecast odds higher than 12/1 and all of them have lost.
    Good recent form is important. Those horses that did not finish in the first 3 last time have a record of just 2 wins from 96 attempts.
    Horses bred in the UK have a good record with 7 wins from 88 runs.
     
    2 horses match these criteria.
    VINTAGE CLARETS 9/1
    BOND CHAIRMAN 10/1
     
    I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers paying 5 places.
  10. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to black rabbit in Racing chat-Saturday 15th July   
    Shining Blue                               -    4 00 New/             1/40th of a  pt ew    18/1                 -U/P
    Arecibo                                        -    1 45 Asc/               1/40th of a pt ew     33/1                - U/P
    Vintage  Clarets                          -    1 45 Asc/               1/40th of a pt ew     16/1                - 3rd
    Dawn Of Liberation                   -    3 10 Yrk/                1/40th 0f a pt ew     130/1              - U/P
    Howth                                           -   3 10 Yrk/                1/40th of a pt ew     150/1             - N/R
    Hathem                                         -  3 25 New/              1/40th of a pt ew     12/1                - 2nd
    Graphite                                        - 5 10 New/               1/40th of a pt ew     25/1
    Highbank                                       - 2 50New/                1/40th of a pt ew     18/1               - Won
     
     
     
     
     
    +164.15 pts
  11. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from maxironchin in Racing chat-Saturday 15th July   
    A bumpers days racing with quality races coming at us from ITV across three meetings. We have four from day three of the Newmarket July meeting including the bet365 Bunbury Cup at 16:00 and the Pertemps Network July Cup at 16:35. York give us another four including the John Smith’s Cup at 15:10 whilst Ascot get in on the action with a brace coming from there. There’s showers forecast at all three meetings so it would be no surprise were the ground to ease at any of the meetings. Here’s my thoughts and tips for the day’s action.   Ascot 13:45 We start the days terrestrial action with a 19 runner sprint handicap over 5f for three year olds and upwards. The only three year old in the race is David Simcock’s Harry Brown who is not without a chance although is 4lb wrong at the weights here today. Top weight Rohaan is a real Ascot specialist having won 4 of his 7 starts here although I’m not sure dropping back to the minimum trip will suit this habitual slow starter trained by David Evans. Charlie Hills’ Equilateral is an interesting runner who was last seen when 5th in the Group 1 Kings Stand Stakes at the Royal meeting and this represents a significant drop in class. Last year’s 1-2-3 are all back for another go with Mountain Peak, who made all to strike, 8lb lower now but is woefully out of form having only beaten two horses in his three races this season. Runner up last year was the Bryan Smart trained Bond Chairman who went down by just a neck and although he is 11lb worse off with Mountain Peak comes here having won at Doncaster a month ago and with just a 3lb rise for that win and a decent draw in stall 19, so he can come over and bag the normally favoured near side rail, looks sure to run well again. Back in third last year was the David and Nicola Barron trained Zarzyni who is on a very nice mark now some 13lb better off for 1 1/2L with Bond Chairman and looks close to a winning run having finished 4th of 20 in the Epsom Dash last time out. I’ll split my bets between him and Bond Chairman each way with additional places.   BOND CHAIRMAN 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 ZARZYNI 1 point each way @ 12/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345   York 14:00 A dozen milers line up for this 1M class 2 0-105 handicap. The race looks wide open with many holding similar chances. Last year’s one two Eileen Dubh, trained by Karl Burke and David O’Meara’s Blue For You renew rivalry on the same terms and both hold decent clams whilst William Haggas’s Aramaic, who ran well last weekend over 10F steps back in trip which may not suit. La Trinidad won this race two years ago and bounced back to winning form at Doncaster last time out, winning by 4 3/4L, a race for which the handicapper has clobbered him with a 9lb rise in the weights. The most interesting runner is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Wild Lion who kept on well to win a 7F handicap here in first time cheek pieces last month. He’s been put up 4lb for that win when ridden by Kieran O’Neill but is ridden today by Bin Suroor’s assistant’s son Christian Howarth who is good value for his 5lb and thus will be racing off of a one pound less mark than when winning last time. He’s the pick in a tricky looking handicap.   WILD LION 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Ascot 14:20 Just the nine here for the Group 2 Summer Mile for four year olds and upwards. The ground is very important here with both William Haggas’s Aldaary and Ralph Beckett’s Angel Bleu better on softer conditions. If the ground doesn’t ease from the current good to firm then we could easily see one or both missing the contest. John & Thady Gosden’s Mighty Ulysses has obviously had training problems as we haven’t seen him for 329 days and can be overlooked here whilst Ralph Beckett’s Jimi Hendrix must be a player having won the Royal Hunt Cup over the straight mile here at the Royal meeting in great style. Charlie Appleby has his string in fine form and despite a 3lb penalty for a Group 2 victory in Dubai at the beginning of the year his Master Of The Sea, who has by all accounts been burning up the gallops at Moultons Paddocks recently, can take this mile contest. A classy performer who was runner up in the 2001 2000 Guineas hasnt been seen for 112 days and with William Buick needed at Newmarket its James Doyle who comes in for the ride. He looks the pick here.   MASTER OF THE SEAS 1 points win @ 7/2 William Hill   York 14:35 Next up is the listed 5F John Smith’s City Walls Stakes for three year olds and upwards. Edward Bethel is having a fine season and is currently running at a 42% win ratio. He saddles his five year old Regional here who is ridden by Callum Rodriguez. He’s chasing a hat trick of victories having won a handicap over course and distance and a listed contest at Haydock and although he has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for that latest listed victory can go close. Karl Burke’s Silky Wilkie went down in a blanket finish in the 5F Epsom Dash last time and is the highest rated off the eleven runner field and has obvious claims along with one of the four three year olds here, Queen Me. She looks the most interesting in the field dropping to the minimum trip for the first time having failed to stay a mile on her re-appearance in the 1000 Guineas and then a credible 6th of 13 (beaten 3L) in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. With Andrea Atzeni in the saddle for the first time she looks the each way value here.   QUEEN ME 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newmarket 14:50 Twelve go to post for this class 2 bet365 Mile Handicap which,like all of today’s handicaps, has an open look about it. Clive Cox’s Havana Blue is chasing a hat trick following victories at the two Newmarket courses with his recent victory coming a fortnight ago over 7F. The grey steps up to a mile here and that may bring about further improvement especially with Ryan Moore taking over from John Fahy. William Haggas’s Tafreej won a four runner Yarmouth 1M handicap a fortnight ago and despite a 6lb rise in the weights can also be competitive whilst the Marco Botti runner Royal Dubai, who ran well in defeat at Chester last month will appreciate stepping up in trip. Quantum Impact is another with claims having excuses for his disappointing run at Royal Ascot in the Britannia Handicap and is yet another with a chance. An open enough handicap where stakes should be kept small but I’ll chance the Ryan Moore ridden Havana Blue each way.   HAVANA BLUE 1 point each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234   York 15:10 As always a very tight knit handicap in which several can be given chances. Two of the best handicapped horses are Nobel and Long Tradition who both carry penalties for recent easy all weather success’s and are officially 4lb and 9lb well in here today. Spirit Dancer ran a stormer in this race last year when he was forced across the track by eventual winner (and future Group one winner) Anmaat. He has an excellent track record and has to be part of the staking plan although a very wide draw of 19 may not be ideal.   LONG TRADITION 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 123456 SPIRIT DANCER 1/2 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 123456     Newmarket 15:25 Just the ten go to post for this Group 2 bet365 Superlative Stakes for two year olds. We have the 5th (Haatem) and 8th (Spanish Phoenix) from the Coventry Stakes at the Royal meeting but it will be a major surprise if one of the front two doesn’t take this. Charlie Appleby has a great record in this winning four of the last six renewals and was also runner up in this last year. He obviously saddles one of his better juveniles in this contest and this year it’s Great Truth, a well related son of Dubawi who bolted up on his racecourse debut at Leicester over 7F having been well supported into 8/11. He came home 5 1/2L to the good that day and will surely run a big race here. The big danger has to be the Aidan O’Brien trained City Of Troy, a son of Justify who like his main danger Great Truth made a scintillating winning debut, when spread eagling his field in a 7F maiden at The Curragh a fortnight ago coming home 2 1/2L to the good. He was never stronger than at the finish and Ryan Moore apparently took an age to pull him up. It’s a hard one to call but at the current prices and with Appleby having such a good record in the race its Great Truth for me in a race where we could be seeing the best two year old seen out so far.   GREAT TRUTH 1 point win @ 3/1 Paddy Power   York 15:45 Just the six runners for the 1M 6F John Smith’s Silver Cup, a Group 3 event for four year olds and upwards. The warm favourite is the William Haggas trained Hamish who is 6lb better and upwards of this field even with a 3lb penalty for winning the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester back in May. He does like to get his toe in and will be very hard to beat especially if the rain turns the ground on the easy side. Tom Marquand is here to ride which is obviously a bonus and although too skinny to back it will be a surprise if he doesn’t outclass these. Next best in the race is the Brian Ellison trained stayer Tashkan who was pulled out of both the Yorkshire Cup and Ascot Gold Cup due to the fast ground and is another who needs the ground on the soft side to be seen to his best. This looks all about Hamish and he’s a confident selection.   Newmarket 16:00 A maximum bumper field of 20 have declared for the 7F bet365 Bunbury Cup for three year olds and upwards. As always theres a very open look about this valuable handicap. Awaal has been placed in the Lincoln and the Royal Hunt Cup this season over a mile although I’m not sure dropping to 7F will be in his favour. Last year’s winner Bless Him and runner up Ropey Guest renew rivalry having swopped stalls positions this time around (what were the chances of that?). Bless Him is a proud better off for 1 1/4L and has claims here again. Back in fourth last year was the William Haggas trained Montassib and although he’s worse off with the pair that finished ahead of that day has the assistance of William Buick and can’t be ruled out. The only three year old in the race is Eve Johnson Houghton’s Streets Of Gold who was last seen when running third in the jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, goes on any ground and drawn in the middle can go any way jockey Charlie Bishop wants. He’s got future group entries at both Goodwood and York and should run well. I’ll take him each way with additional places alongside Ralph Beckett’s Biggles who’s drawn in stall 18 and has the assistance of the world’s best jockey Ryan Moore. Moore was on board when winning his side in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot last time and with Beckett among the winners recently can run a big race. There’s others with good chances but I’ll dutch Streets Of Gold and Biggles.   STREETS OF GOLD 1 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345 BIGGLES 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Newmarket 16:35 A fascinating renewal of the July Cup with the three-year-old sprinters taking on their elders. Shaquille ran an amazing race at Ascot in the Commonwealth Cup when despite starting slowly ran on to run down the hot favourite Little Big Bear and from watching that race it’s hard to feel that the latter can turn the tables especially as his trainer stated in the week that he had missed some vital work since. That said Shaquille is priced accordingly at around the 7-4 mark and represents scant value at present. The ground is very important to the likes of Kinross and Vadream as both love the mud and can only be considered were the ground to ride soft. The one to be with at present is Michael Dods’s Azure Blue who is a rapidly improving sprinter who’s taken giant steps this season and may still be on the upgrade if his defeat of arguably the best sprinter around Highfield Princess at York is anything to go by. Dods is a past master at improving sprinters with the likes of Mabs Cross and Meccas Choice both progressing from handicaps to the top level and he might just have another here in the shape of Azure Blue. Advised in my ante-post piece at 5-1 he still looks value at his current odds.   AZURE BLUE 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365   All prices were available at time of writing
  12. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from MCLARKE in Racing chat -Friday 14th July   
    Day two of the Newmarket July Meeting and we have six races covered by the ITV cameras with the first four on the card live plus we have a couple of races from York including the Group 3 William Hill Summer Stakes at 14:40. The ground is currently good to firm at Newmarket and good at York although there are showers forecast. Here’s my thoughts on the six races.   Newmarket 13:50 We start the day off with a thirteen runner three year old class 2 Heritage Handicap over 10F. CharlieAppleby has his local string in fine form now unlike three weeks ago at Royal Ascot when the yard went 0 from 18 with their runners. He saddles a brace of decent three year olds in top weight Local Dynasty and Royal Ascot 6th Tagabawa here. William Buick, one would think, has had the pick here and rides the latter who is dropping in trip here. It would be no shock were either to take this but I want to be with one further down the handicap who looks very well treated in the Freddie and Martyn Meade trained Dayzee. A dual winner from four outings on the all-weather he made an excellent turf debut when out battling the John & Thady Gosden trained Spring Fever at Salisbury over today’s trip. The pair pulled some 7L clear of the third and with Spring Fever winning at Newmarket by 5 1/2L since the form looks very good. Dayzee was put up 6lb for that success although the official handicapper has pushed him up a further 2lb following the runner up’s subsequent easy victory which wont come into affect until after this race. He looks great each way value with Marco Ghiani taking over from Sean Levey. There are, as one would expect, plenty of others that can be given chances here including the William Haggas handicap debutant Seendid and Alan King’s maiden winner Westerton ridden by Ryan Moore. A competitive race to start day two and it’s Dayzee each way for me.   DAYZEE 1 point each way @ 14/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234   York 14:05 The first of two televised races from York is the class 2 7F handicap which has attracted just the eight runners. Nigel Tinkler’s Another Investment heads the betting having bolted up over course and distance four weeks ago winning by 5L. He’s been hammered by the handicapper mind and been raised 11lb and at the current prices can be taken on here. Michael Dods’s Norhern Express ran a stormer at Royal Ascot in the Buckingham Palace Handicap to finish third (beaten 1 1/4L)to Witch Hunter and a reproduction of that effort will see him go very close. Only 2 3/4L behind that day was the David O’Meara trained Bopedro and on 2lb better terms is maybe the biggest threat to Northern Express who looks sure to be thereabouts and is the selection here.   NORTHERN EXPRESS 1 point win @ 3/1 bet365   Newmarket 14:25 Only five have declared for the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridgeshire Stakes run over 6F for two year old fillies. We have a warm favourite in the Charlie Appleby trained Kodiac filly Star Of Mystery. She’s already shown herself to be a smart sort by following up her Haydock novice win with a scintillating listed victory over course and distance a fortnight ago. She travelled strongly that day and went clear to win by 4L and if in the same mood will be very hard to beat. Amo Racing bring a brace of nice fillies to the race in Persian Dreamer and Thanksbutnothanks, though both will need to raise their game with the latter some 25lb officially behind the warm favourite and the former was a length and a half behind Soprano at Royal Ascot. Soprano was an eleventh hour defection due to a cock up with some medication which should leave this a cake walk for Star Of Mystery who's now too skinny to back at around the 1/3 mark.   York 14:40 The 6F William Hill Summer Stakes is a Group 3 contest for three year old fillies and mares which this year has attracted ten runners. The one they all have to beat is the Karl Burke trained Swingalong who takes a drop in class here having finished third (beaten 2L) in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup behind Shaquille and Little Big Bear when dropping in trip. This trip obviously suits her and if she can reproduce that run will be hard to beat. Her biggest danger may well be fellow three year Juliet Sienna, trained by Ralph Beckett. She was only half a length behind Swingalong in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket last September and probably didn’t stay a mile on her only run this season. Gale Force Maya has a great record here winning three of her five starts on the Knavesmire and was third in this last year. She has however shown little in two starts this season and is hard to fancy on recent form. James Tate’s Royal Aclaim looked very smart when winning over 5F at the Ebor meeting here last August but hasn’t really gone on from that win and steps up in trip today. Mamma’s Girl drops in trip having been well beaten in the 1000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes and has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for her Nell Gwyn victory in the spring. If reproducing her last run this should be going to the favourite Swingalong although I can’t resist a small each way saver on Juliet Sierra who was only just behind her last year in Group 1 company.   SWINGALONG 2 points win @ 15/8 William Hill JULIET SIERRA 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 123   Newmarket 15:00 Next up is the 1M 6F class 2 bet365 Heritage Handicap, for four year old’s and upwards. Saedd Bin Suroor’s top weight Live Your Dream won this very race two years ago from a 10lb lower handicap mark and appears to have a golden chance of taking the first prize again, this time with Kevin Stott doing the steering. Two good efforts in valuable handicaps already this season over 1M 4F including when third (beaten 2L) in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot should set him up to take this especially as the extra two furlongs will be in his favour. Roger Varian’s Aimeric was just two lengths behind Live Your Dream at Ascot and is now 2lb better so shouldn’t be that far away from his old rival and can also run well. Adrian Paul Keatley’s Kihavah is chasing a four timer (five timer if you include his hurdles win last month) rising some 15lb in the weights and doesn’t have much in hand of George Scott’s Prydwen who was a head behind him last time at Ayr and is a pound better off. Torcello only comes into the equation were the heavens to open and this looks a great opportunity for Live Your Dream to open his account for the season.   LIVE YOUR DREAM 2 points win @ 11/4 BetVictor   Newmarket 15:35 A filed of nine assemble for the first Group 1 of the week in the shape of the 1M Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes, a race for three year old fillies and upwards. George Boughey’s Via Sistina heads the market following wins at Newmarket (Group 2) and The Curragh (Group 1) with her latest win coming in the Pretty Polly Stakes, which looked a weak renewal. She has definite claims but I would be a bit concerned were the ground to ride fast as shes been kept to good and slower ground and has actually been pulled out twice in her career due to fast ground. At around the 2/1 mark I think we can look elsewhere. Last year’s winner Prosperous Voyage and three year old Remarquee form a potent partnership from the Ralph Beckett stable with preference for the latter who took the Fred Darling at Newbury on her re-appearance on soft ground. Having finished down the field in the 1000 Guineas she bounced back to form, despite losing a shoe, to run the smart Tahiyra to a length when not getting the clearest of runs in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes. She had been labelled a soft ground performer coming into that run but it was run on good to firm and was a career best. If reproducing that effort she looks the bet here. John & Thady Gosden supplemented Nashwa earlier in the week and on her best form of last season when winning the Group 1 French Oaks and Nassau Stakes is a serious player although in two runs this season seems a bit below that form currently. The Gosden’s also have impressive Sandringham Handicap winner Coppice entered and I can see her outrunning her odds. I’ll stick with the Rob Hornby ridden Remarquee to prove his Royal Ascot win was no fluke.   REMARQUEE 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 123  
  13. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing chat-Saturday 15th July   
    A bumpers days racing with quality races coming at us from ITV across three meetings. We have four from day three of the Newmarket July meeting including the bet365 Bunbury Cup at 16:00 and the Pertemps Network July Cup at 16:35. York give us another four including the John Smith’s Cup at 15:10 whilst Ascot get in on the action with a brace coming from there. There’s showers forecast at all three meetings so it would be no surprise were the ground to ease at any of the meetings. Here’s my thoughts and tips for the day’s action.   Ascot 13:45 We start the days terrestrial action with a 19 runner sprint handicap over 5f for three year olds and upwards. The only three year old in the race is David Simcock’s Harry Brown who is not without a chance although is 4lb wrong at the weights here today. Top weight Rohaan is a real Ascot specialist having won 4 of his 7 starts here although I’m not sure dropping back to the minimum trip will suit this habitual slow starter trained by David Evans. Charlie Hills’ Equilateral is an interesting runner who was last seen when 5th in the Group 1 Kings Stand Stakes at the Royal meeting and this represents a significant drop in class. Last year’s 1-2-3 are all back for another go with Mountain Peak, who made all to strike, 8lb lower now but is woefully out of form having only beaten two horses in his three races this season. Runner up last year was the Bryan Smart trained Bond Chairman who went down by just a neck and although he is 11lb worse off with Mountain Peak comes here having won at Doncaster a month ago and with just a 3lb rise for that win and a decent draw in stall 19, so he can come over and bag the normally favoured near side rail, looks sure to run well again. Back in third last year was the David and Nicola Barron trained Zarzyni who is on a very nice mark now some 13lb better off for 1 1/2L with Bond Chairman and looks close to a winning run having finished 4th of 20 in the Epsom Dash last time out. I’ll split my bets between him and Bond Chairman each way with additional places.   BOND CHAIRMAN 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 ZARZYNI 1 point each way @ 12/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345   York 14:00 A dozen milers line up for this 1M class 2 0-105 handicap. The race looks wide open with many holding similar chances. Last year’s one two Eileen Dubh, trained by Karl Burke and David O’Meara’s Blue For You renew rivalry on the same terms and both hold decent clams whilst William Haggas’s Aramaic, who ran well last weekend over 10F steps back in trip which may not suit. La Trinidad won this race two years ago and bounced back to winning form at Doncaster last time out, winning by 4 3/4L, a race for which the handicapper has clobbered him with a 9lb rise in the weights. The most interesting runner is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Wild Lion who kept on well to win a 7F handicap here in first time cheek pieces last month. He’s been put up 4lb for that win when ridden by Kieran O’Neill but is ridden today by Bin Suroor’s assistant’s son Christian Howarth who is good value for his 5lb and thus will be racing off of a one pound less mark than when winning last time. He’s the pick in a tricky looking handicap.   WILD LION 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Ascot 14:20 Just the nine here for the Group 2 Summer Mile for four year olds and upwards. The ground is very important here with both William Haggas’s Aldaary and Ralph Beckett’s Angel Bleu better on softer conditions. If the ground doesn’t ease from the current good to firm then we could easily see one or both missing the contest. John & Thady Gosden’s Mighty Ulysses has obviously had training problems as we haven’t seen him for 329 days and can be overlooked here whilst Ralph Beckett’s Jimi Hendrix must be a player having won the Royal Hunt Cup over the straight mile here at the Royal meeting in great style. Charlie Appleby has his string in fine form and despite a 3lb penalty for a Group 2 victory in Dubai at the beginning of the year his Master Of The Sea, who has by all accounts been burning up the gallops at Moultons Paddocks recently, can take this mile contest. A classy performer who was runner up in the 2001 2000 Guineas hasnt been seen for 112 days and with William Buick needed at Newmarket its James Doyle who comes in for the ride. He looks the pick here.   MASTER OF THE SEAS 1 points win @ 7/2 William Hill   York 14:35 Next up is the listed 5F John Smith’s City Walls Stakes for three year olds and upwards. Edward Bethel is having a fine season and is currently running at a 42% win ratio. He saddles his five year old Regional here who is ridden by Callum Rodriguez. He’s chasing a hat trick of victories having won a handicap over course and distance and a listed contest at Haydock and although he has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for that latest listed victory can go close. Karl Burke’s Silky Wilkie went down in a blanket finish in the 5F Epsom Dash last time and is the highest rated off the eleven runner field and has obvious claims along with one of the four three year olds here, Queen Me. She looks the most interesting in the field dropping to the minimum trip for the first time having failed to stay a mile on her re-appearance in the 1000 Guineas and then a credible 6th of 13 (beaten 3L) in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. With Andrea Atzeni in the saddle for the first time she looks the each way value here.   QUEEN ME 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newmarket 14:50 Twelve go to post for this class 2 bet365 Mile Handicap which,like all of today’s handicaps, has an open look about it. Clive Cox’s Havana Blue is chasing a hat trick following victories at the two Newmarket courses with his recent victory coming a fortnight ago over 7F. The grey steps up to a mile here and that may bring about further improvement especially with Ryan Moore taking over from John Fahy. William Haggas’s Tafreej won a four runner Yarmouth 1M handicap a fortnight ago and despite a 6lb rise in the weights can also be competitive whilst the Marco Botti runner Royal Dubai, who ran well in defeat at Chester last month will appreciate stepping up in trip. Quantum Impact is another with claims having excuses for his disappointing run at Royal Ascot in the Britannia Handicap and is yet another with a chance. An open enough handicap where stakes should be kept small but I’ll chance the Ryan Moore ridden Havana Blue each way.   HAVANA BLUE 1 point each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234   York 15:10 As always a very tight knit handicap in which several can be given chances. Two of the best handicapped horses are Nobel and Long Tradition who both carry penalties for recent easy all weather success’s and are officially 4lb and 9lb well in here today. Spirit Dancer ran a stormer in this race last year when he was forced across the track by eventual winner (and future Group one winner) Anmaat. He has an excellent track record and has to be part of the staking plan although a very wide draw of 19 may not be ideal.   LONG TRADITION 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 123456 SPIRIT DANCER 1/2 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 123456     Newmarket 15:25 Just the ten go to post for this Group 2 bet365 Superlative Stakes for two year olds. We have the 5th (Haatem) and 8th (Spanish Phoenix) from the Coventry Stakes at the Royal meeting but it will be a major surprise if one of the front two doesn’t take this. Charlie Appleby has a great record in this winning four of the last six renewals and was also runner up in this last year. He obviously saddles one of his better juveniles in this contest and this year it’s Great Truth, a well related son of Dubawi who bolted up on his racecourse debut at Leicester over 7F having been well supported into 8/11. He came home 5 1/2L to the good that day and will surely run a big race here. The big danger has to be the Aidan O’Brien trained City Of Troy, a son of Justify who like his main danger Great Truth made a scintillating winning debut, when spread eagling his field in a 7F maiden at The Curragh a fortnight ago coming home 2 1/2L to the good. He was never stronger than at the finish and Ryan Moore apparently took an age to pull him up. It’s a hard one to call but at the current prices and with Appleby having such a good record in the race its Great Truth for me in a race where we could be seeing the best two year old seen out so far.   GREAT TRUTH 1 point win @ 3/1 Paddy Power   York 15:45 Just the six runners for the 1M 6F John Smith’s Silver Cup, a Group 3 event for four year olds and upwards. The warm favourite is the William Haggas trained Hamish who is 6lb better and upwards of this field even with a 3lb penalty for winning the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester back in May. He does like to get his toe in and will be very hard to beat especially if the rain turns the ground on the easy side. Tom Marquand is here to ride which is obviously a bonus and although too skinny to back it will be a surprise if he doesn’t outclass these. Next best in the race is the Brian Ellison trained stayer Tashkan who was pulled out of both the Yorkshire Cup and Ascot Gold Cup due to the fast ground and is another who needs the ground on the soft side to be seen to his best. This looks all about Hamish and he’s a confident selection.   Newmarket 16:00 A maximum bumper field of 20 have declared for the 7F bet365 Bunbury Cup for three year olds and upwards. As always theres a very open look about this valuable handicap. Awaal has been placed in the Lincoln and the Royal Hunt Cup this season over a mile although I’m not sure dropping to 7F will be in his favour. Last year’s winner Bless Him and runner up Ropey Guest renew rivalry having swopped stalls positions this time around (what were the chances of that?). Bless Him is a proud better off for 1 1/4L and has claims here again. Back in fourth last year was the William Haggas trained Montassib and although he’s worse off with the pair that finished ahead of that day has the assistance of William Buick and can’t be ruled out. The only three year old in the race is Eve Johnson Houghton’s Streets Of Gold who was last seen when running third in the jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, goes on any ground and drawn in the middle can go any way jockey Charlie Bishop wants. He’s got future group entries at both Goodwood and York and should run well. I’ll take him each way with additional places alongside Ralph Beckett’s Biggles who’s drawn in stall 18 and has the assistance of the world’s best jockey Ryan Moore. Moore was on board when winning his side in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot last time and with Beckett among the winners recently can run a big race. There’s others with good chances but I’ll dutch Streets Of Gold and Biggles.   STREETS OF GOLD 1 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345 BIGGLES 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Newmarket 16:35 A fascinating renewal of the July Cup with the three-year-old sprinters taking on their elders. Shaquille ran an amazing race at Ascot in the Commonwealth Cup when despite starting slowly ran on to run down the hot favourite Little Big Bear and from watching that race it’s hard to feel that the latter can turn the tables especially as his trainer stated in the week that he had missed some vital work since. That said Shaquille is priced accordingly at around the 7-4 mark and represents scant value at present. The ground is very important to the likes of Kinross and Vadream as both love the mud and can only be considered were the ground to ride soft. The one to be with at present is Michael Dods’s Azure Blue who is a rapidly improving sprinter who’s taken giant steps this season and may still be on the upgrade if his defeat of arguably the best sprinter around Highfield Princess at York is anything to go by. Dods is a past master at improving sprinters with the likes of Mabs Cross and Meccas Choice both progressing from handicaps to the top level and he might just have another here in the shape of Azure Blue. Advised in my ante-post piece at 5-1 he still looks value at his current odds.   AZURE BLUE 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365   All prices were available at time of writing
  14. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from Ryanpete in Racing chat-Saturday 15th July   
    A bumpers days racing with quality races coming at us from ITV across three meetings. We have four from day three of the Newmarket July meeting including the bet365 Bunbury Cup at 16:00 and the Pertemps Network July Cup at 16:35. York give us another four including the John Smith’s Cup at 15:10 whilst Ascot get in on the action with a brace coming from there. There’s showers forecast at all three meetings so it would be no surprise were the ground to ease at any of the meetings. Here’s my thoughts and tips for the day’s action.   Ascot 13:45 We start the days terrestrial action with a 19 runner sprint handicap over 5f for three year olds and upwards. The only three year old in the race is David Simcock’s Harry Brown who is not without a chance although is 4lb wrong at the weights here today. Top weight Rohaan is a real Ascot specialist having won 4 of his 7 starts here although I’m not sure dropping back to the minimum trip will suit this habitual slow starter trained by David Evans. Charlie Hills’ Equilateral is an interesting runner who was last seen when 5th in the Group 1 Kings Stand Stakes at the Royal meeting and this represents a significant drop in class. Last year’s 1-2-3 are all back for another go with Mountain Peak, who made all to strike, 8lb lower now but is woefully out of form having only beaten two horses in his three races this season. Runner up last year was the Bryan Smart trained Bond Chairman who went down by just a neck and although he is 11lb worse off with Mountain Peak comes here having won at Doncaster a month ago and with just a 3lb rise for that win and a decent draw in stall 19, so he can come over and bag the normally favoured near side rail, looks sure to run well again. Back in third last year was the David and Nicola Barron trained Zarzyni who is on a very nice mark now some 13lb better off for 1 1/2L with Bond Chairman and looks close to a winning run having finished 4th of 20 in the Epsom Dash last time out. I’ll split my bets between him and Bond Chairman each way with additional places.   BOND CHAIRMAN 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 ZARZYNI 1 point each way @ 12/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345   York 14:00 A dozen milers line up for this 1M class 2 0-105 handicap. The race looks wide open with many holding similar chances. Last year’s one two Eileen Dubh, trained by Karl Burke and David O’Meara’s Blue For You renew rivalry on the same terms and both hold decent clams whilst William Haggas’s Aramaic, who ran well last weekend over 10F steps back in trip which may not suit. La Trinidad won this race two years ago and bounced back to winning form at Doncaster last time out, winning by 4 3/4L, a race for which the handicapper has clobbered him with a 9lb rise in the weights. The most interesting runner is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Wild Lion who kept on well to win a 7F handicap here in first time cheek pieces last month. He’s been put up 4lb for that win when ridden by Kieran O’Neill but is ridden today by Bin Suroor’s assistant’s son Christian Howarth who is good value for his 5lb and thus will be racing off of a one pound less mark than when winning last time. He’s the pick in a tricky looking handicap.   WILD LION 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Ascot 14:20 Just the nine here for the Group 2 Summer Mile for four year olds and upwards. The ground is very important here with both William Haggas’s Aldaary and Ralph Beckett’s Angel Bleu better on softer conditions. If the ground doesn’t ease from the current good to firm then we could easily see one or both missing the contest. John & Thady Gosden’s Mighty Ulysses has obviously had training problems as we haven’t seen him for 329 days and can be overlooked here whilst Ralph Beckett’s Jimi Hendrix must be a player having won the Royal Hunt Cup over the straight mile here at the Royal meeting in great style. Charlie Appleby has his string in fine form and despite a 3lb penalty for a Group 2 victory in Dubai at the beginning of the year his Master Of The Sea, who has by all accounts been burning up the gallops at Moultons Paddocks recently, can take this mile contest. A classy performer who was runner up in the 2001 2000 Guineas hasnt been seen for 112 days and with William Buick needed at Newmarket its James Doyle who comes in for the ride. He looks the pick here.   MASTER OF THE SEAS 1 points win @ 7/2 William Hill   York 14:35 Next up is the listed 5F John Smith’s City Walls Stakes for three year olds and upwards. Edward Bethel is having a fine season and is currently running at a 42% win ratio. He saddles his five year old Regional here who is ridden by Callum Rodriguez. He’s chasing a hat trick of victories having won a handicap over course and distance and a listed contest at Haydock and although he has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for that latest listed victory can go close. Karl Burke’s Silky Wilkie went down in a blanket finish in the 5F Epsom Dash last time and is the highest rated off the eleven runner field and has obvious claims along with one of the four three year olds here, Queen Me. She looks the most interesting in the field dropping to the minimum trip for the first time having failed to stay a mile on her re-appearance in the 1000 Guineas and then a credible 6th of 13 (beaten 3L) in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. With Andrea Atzeni in the saddle for the first time she looks the each way value here.   QUEEN ME 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newmarket 14:50 Twelve go to post for this class 2 bet365 Mile Handicap which,like all of today’s handicaps, has an open look about it. Clive Cox’s Havana Blue is chasing a hat trick following victories at the two Newmarket courses with his recent victory coming a fortnight ago over 7F. The grey steps up to a mile here and that may bring about further improvement especially with Ryan Moore taking over from John Fahy. William Haggas’s Tafreej won a four runner Yarmouth 1M handicap a fortnight ago and despite a 6lb rise in the weights can also be competitive whilst the Marco Botti runner Royal Dubai, who ran well in defeat at Chester last month will appreciate stepping up in trip. Quantum Impact is another with claims having excuses for his disappointing run at Royal Ascot in the Britannia Handicap and is yet another with a chance. An open enough handicap where stakes should be kept small but I’ll chance the Ryan Moore ridden Havana Blue each way.   HAVANA BLUE 1 point each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234   York 15:10 As always a very tight knit handicap in which several can be given chances. Two of the best handicapped horses are Nobel and Long Tradition who both carry penalties for recent easy all weather success’s and are officially 4lb and 9lb well in here today. Spirit Dancer ran a stormer in this race last year when he was forced across the track by eventual winner (and future Group one winner) Anmaat. He has an excellent track record and has to be part of the staking plan although a very wide draw of 19 may not be ideal.   LONG TRADITION 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 123456 SPIRIT DANCER 1/2 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 123456     Newmarket 15:25 Just the ten go to post for this Group 2 bet365 Superlative Stakes for two year olds. We have the 5th (Haatem) and 8th (Spanish Phoenix) from the Coventry Stakes at the Royal meeting but it will be a major surprise if one of the front two doesn’t take this. Charlie Appleby has a great record in this winning four of the last six renewals and was also runner up in this last year. He obviously saddles one of his better juveniles in this contest and this year it’s Great Truth, a well related son of Dubawi who bolted up on his racecourse debut at Leicester over 7F having been well supported into 8/11. He came home 5 1/2L to the good that day and will surely run a big race here. The big danger has to be the Aidan O’Brien trained City Of Troy, a son of Justify who like his main danger Great Truth made a scintillating winning debut, when spread eagling his field in a 7F maiden at The Curragh a fortnight ago coming home 2 1/2L to the good. He was never stronger than at the finish and Ryan Moore apparently took an age to pull him up. It’s a hard one to call but at the current prices and with Appleby having such a good record in the race its Great Truth for me in a race where we could be seeing the best two year old seen out so far.   GREAT TRUTH 1 point win @ 3/1 Paddy Power   York 15:45 Just the six runners for the 1M 6F John Smith’s Silver Cup, a Group 3 event for four year olds and upwards. The warm favourite is the William Haggas trained Hamish who is 6lb better and upwards of this field even with a 3lb penalty for winning the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester back in May. He does like to get his toe in and will be very hard to beat especially if the rain turns the ground on the easy side. Tom Marquand is here to ride which is obviously a bonus and although too skinny to back it will be a surprise if he doesn’t outclass these. Next best in the race is the Brian Ellison trained stayer Tashkan who was pulled out of both the Yorkshire Cup and Ascot Gold Cup due to the fast ground and is another who needs the ground on the soft side to be seen to his best. This looks all about Hamish and he’s a confident selection.   Newmarket 16:00 A maximum bumper field of 20 have declared for the 7F bet365 Bunbury Cup for three year olds and upwards. As always theres a very open look about this valuable handicap. Awaal has been placed in the Lincoln and the Royal Hunt Cup this season over a mile although I’m not sure dropping to 7F will be in his favour. Last year’s winner Bless Him and runner up Ropey Guest renew rivalry having swopped stalls positions this time around (what were the chances of that?). Bless Him is a proud better off for 1 1/4L and has claims here again. Back in fourth last year was the William Haggas trained Montassib and although he’s worse off with the pair that finished ahead of that day has the assistance of William Buick and can’t be ruled out. The only three year old in the race is Eve Johnson Houghton’s Streets Of Gold who was last seen when running third in the jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, goes on any ground and drawn in the middle can go any way jockey Charlie Bishop wants. He’s got future group entries at both Goodwood and York and should run well. I’ll take him each way with additional places alongside Ralph Beckett’s Biggles who’s drawn in stall 18 and has the assistance of the world’s best jockey Ryan Moore. Moore was on board when winning his side in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot last time and with Beckett among the winners recently can run a big race. There’s others with good chances but I’ll dutch Streets Of Gold and Biggles.   STREETS OF GOLD 1 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345 BIGGLES 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Newmarket 16:35 A fascinating renewal of the July Cup with the three-year-old sprinters taking on their elders. Shaquille ran an amazing race at Ascot in the Commonwealth Cup when despite starting slowly ran on to run down the hot favourite Little Big Bear and from watching that race it’s hard to feel that the latter can turn the tables especially as his trainer stated in the week that he had missed some vital work since. That said Shaquille is priced accordingly at around the 7-4 mark and represents scant value at present. The ground is very important to the likes of Kinross and Vadream as both love the mud and can only be considered were the ground to ride soft. The one to be with at present is Michael Dods’s Azure Blue who is a rapidly improving sprinter who’s taken giant steps this season and may still be on the upgrade if his defeat of arguably the best sprinter around Highfield Princess at York is anything to go by. Dods is a past master at improving sprinters with the likes of Mabs Cross and Meccas Choice both progressing from handicaps to the top level and he might just have another here in the shape of Azure Blue. Advised in my ante-post piece at 5-1 he still looks value at his current odds.   AZURE BLUE 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365   All prices were available at time of writing
  15. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to Ryanpete in Racing chat -Friday 14th July   
    Money back as cash if 2nd or 3rd, will be placing a lucky 15 let's hope it does better then yesterdays 😅 good luck guys 

  16. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to Brahmin in Racing chat -Friday 14th July   
    Much better days racing opportunities .....so will pick/choose some from the thread, along with mine for some winners i hope!
    New 1.50     Dayzee  16/1 EW     &      Mighty river     10/1 EW          &      Gozo   50/1 EW            4 places   betfair
    York 2.05     Northern express  11/4      WON          &       Zip  11/1 EW
    York 2.40     Swingalong   6/4     WON        &     Radio goo goo  18/1 EW         &       Marine wave    18/1 EW   
    New 3.00     Live your dream    5/2     WON       &        Ravens Ark    11/1 EW
    Ascot 3.25    Metal Merchant    10/1 EW    3rd       &       Monopolise      8/1 EW          4 places
    New 3.35     Via Sistana    13/8        &        Remarquee    11/2      &         Coppice   9/1 EW     
    Ascot 4.00     Alpina Express   5/2          &      Sunset Point     9/2      WON
     
          4 Wins  🏆 🏆 🏆 🏆 and an EW place .......sooo with yesterdays wins, that has made very nice profit for 2 days 👍💷  
  17. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to kensland in Racing chat -Friday 14th July   
    Patent. 
    2.15. Ascot. Million Thanks         6/1
    4.35. Ascot. Enthallment.             10./1
    4.45. Newm. Street Kid                 16/1
    stk 3.50.    rtn. 935.50.
    Good luck all. 
  18. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to black rabbit in Racing chat -Friday 14th July   
    Lyondon B                      - 4 45 New/          1/40th of a pt ew     16/1                 - U/P
    Themaxwecan               - 3 00 New/          1/40th of a pt ew     18/1                 -  N/R
    Never Ending Story      - 3 35 New/           1/40thof a pt ew      20/1                 - U/P
    Obelix                             - 1 50 New/           1/40th of a pt ew     40/1               -    2nd
    Mammas Girl                 - 2 40 Yrk/             1/40th of a pt ew    12/1                 -   U/P
     
     
     
     
    P/L  + 164.10 pt
  19. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to kensland in Racing chat -Friday 14th July   
    Lucky 15.
    1.50. Newm. Tagabawa           10/3
    4.10. Newm. Emperor's Star     15/8
    4.00. York.      Sunset Point         3/1
    2.05. York.     Northern Express  5/2
    stk.  7.50        rtn. 217.00.
    Good luck all. 
  20. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from Ryanpete in Racing chat -Friday 14th July   
    Day two of the Newmarket July Meeting and we have six races covered by the ITV cameras with the first four on the card live plus we have a couple of races from York including the Group 3 William Hill Summer Stakes at 14:40. The ground is currently good to firm at Newmarket and good at York although there are showers forecast. Here’s my thoughts on the six races.   Newmarket 13:50 We start the day off with a thirteen runner three year old class 2 Heritage Handicap over 10F. CharlieAppleby has his local string in fine form now unlike three weeks ago at Royal Ascot when the yard went 0 from 18 with their runners. He saddles a brace of decent three year olds in top weight Local Dynasty and Royal Ascot 6th Tagabawa here. William Buick, one would think, has had the pick here and rides the latter who is dropping in trip here. It would be no shock were either to take this but I want to be with one further down the handicap who looks very well treated in the Freddie and Martyn Meade trained Dayzee. A dual winner from four outings on the all-weather he made an excellent turf debut when out battling the John & Thady Gosden trained Spring Fever at Salisbury over today’s trip. The pair pulled some 7L clear of the third and with Spring Fever winning at Newmarket by 5 1/2L since the form looks very good. Dayzee was put up 6lb for that success although the official handicapper has pushed him up a further 2lb following the runner up’s subsequent easy victory which wont come into affect until after this race. He looks great each way value with Marco Ghiani taking over from Sean Levey. There are, as one would expect, plenty of others that can be given chances here including the William Haggas handicap debutant Seendid and Alan King’s maiden winner Westerton ridden by Ryan Moore. A competitive race to start day two and it’s Dayzee each way for me.   DAYZEE 1 point each way @ 14/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234   York 14:05 The first of two televised races from York is the class 2 7F handicap which has attracted just the eight runners. Nigel Tinkler’s Another Investment heads the betting having bolted up over course and distance four weeks ago winning by 5L. He’s been hammered by the handicapper mind and been raised 11lb and at the current prices can be taken on here. Michael Dods’s Norhern Express ran a stormer at Royal Ascot in the Buckingham Palace Handicap to finish third (beaten 1 1/4L)to Witch Hunter and a reproduction of that effort will see him go very close. Only 2 3/4L behind that day was the David O’Meara trained Bopedro and on 2lb better terms is maybe the biggest threat to Northern Express who looks sure to be thereabouts and is the selection here.   NORTHERN EXPRESS 1 point win @ 3/1 bet365   Newmarket 14:25 Only five have declared for the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridgeshire Stakes run over 6F for two year old fillies. We have a warm favourite in the Charlie Appleby trained Kodiac filly Star Of Mystery. She’s already shown herself to be a smart sort by following up her Haydock novice win with a scintillating listed victory over course and distance a fortnight ago. She travelled strongly that day and went clear to win by 4L and if in the same mood will be very hard to beat. Amo Racing bring a brace of nice fillies to the race in Persian Dreamer and Thanksbutnothanks, though both will need to raise their game with the latter some 25lb officially behind the warm favourite and the former was a length and a half behind Soprano at Royal Ascot. Soprano was an eleventh hour defection due to a cock up with some medication which should leave this a cake walk for Star Of Mystery who's now too skinny to back at around the 1/3 mark.   York 14:40 The 6F William Hill Summer Stakes is a Group 3 contest for three year old fillies and mares which this year has attracted ten runners. The one they all have to beat is the Karl Burke trained Swingalong who takes a drop in class here having finished third (beaten 2L) in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup behind Shaquille and Little Big Bear when dropping in trip. This trip obviously suits her and if she can reproduce that run will be hard to beat. Her biggest danger may well be fellow three year Juliet Sienna, trained by Ralph Beckett. She was only half a length behind Swingalong in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket last September and probably didn’t stay a mile on her only run this season. Gale Force Maya has a great record here winning three of her five starts on the Knavesmire and was third in this last year. She has however shown little in two starts this season and is hard to fancy on recent form. James Tate’s Royal Aclaim looked very smart when winning over 5F at the Ebor meeting here last August but hasn’t really gone on from that win and steps up in trip today. Mamma’s Girl drops in trip having been well beaten in the 1000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes and has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for her Nell Gwyn victory in the spring. If reproducing her last run this should be going to the favourite Swingalong although I can’t resist a small each way saver on Juliet Sierra who was only just behind her last year in Group 1 company.   SWINGALONG 2 points win @ 15/8 William Hill JULIET SIERRA 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 123   Newmarket 15:00 Next up is the 1M 6F class 2 bet365 Heritage Handicap, for four year old’s and upwards. Saedd Bin Suroor’s top weight Live Your Dream won this very race two years ago from a 10lb lower handicap mark and appears to have a golden chance of taking the first prize again, this time with Kevin Stott doing the steering. Two good efforts in valuable handicaps already this season over 1M 4F including when third (beaten 2L) in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot should set him up to take this especially as the extra two furlongs will be in his favour. Roger Varian’s Aimeric was just two lengths behind Live Your Dream at Ascot and is now 2lb better so shouldn’t be that far away from his old rival and can also run well. Adrian Paul Keatley’s Kihavah is chasing a four timer (five timer if you include his hurdles win last month) rising some 15lb in the weights and doesn’t have much in hand of George Scott’s Prydwen who was a head behind him last time at Ayr and is a pound better off. Torcello only comes into the equation were the heavens to open and this looks a great opportunity for Live Your Dream to open his account for the season.   LIVE YOUR DREAM 2 points win @ 11/4 BetVictor   Newmarket 15:35 A filed of nine assemble for the first Group 1 of the week in the shape of the 1M Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes, a race for three year old fillies and upwards. George Boughey’s Via Sistina heads the market following wins at Newmarket (Group 2) and The Curragh (Group 1) with her latest win coming in the Pretty Polly Stakes, which looked a weak renewal. She has definite claims but I would be a bit concerned were the ground to ride fast as shes been kept to good and slower ground and has actually been pulled out twice in her career due to fast ground. At around the 2/1 mark I think we can look elsewhere. Last year’s winner Prosperous Voyage and three year old Remarquee form a potent partnership from the Ralph Beckett stable with preference for the latter who took the Fred Darling at Newbury on her re-appearance on soft ground. Having finished down the field in the 1000 Guineas she bounced back to form, despite losing a shoe, to run the smart Tahiyra to a length when not getting the clearest of runs in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes. She had been labelled a soft ground performer coming into that run but it was run on good to firm and was a career best. If reproducing that effort she looks the bet here. John & Thady Gosden supplemented Nashwa earlier in the week and on her best form of last season when winning the Group 1 French Oaks and Nassau Stakes is a serious player although in two runs this season seems a bit below that form currently. The Gosden’s also have impressive Sandringham Handicap winner Coppice entered and I can see her outrunning her odds. I’ll stick with the Rob Hornby ridden Remarquee to prove his Royal Ascot win was no fluke.   REMARQUEE 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 123  
  21. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from Brahmin in Racing chat-Saturday 15th July   
    A bumpers days racing with quality races coming at us from ITV across three meetings. We have four from day three of the Newmarket July meeting including the bet365 Bunbury Cup at 16:00 and the Pertemps Network July Cup at 16:35. York give us another four including the John Smith’s Cup at 15:10 whilst Ascot get in on the action with a brace coming from there. There’s showers forecast at all three meetings so it would be no surprise were the ground to ease at any of the meetings. Here’s my thoughts and tips for the day’s action.   Ascot 13:45 We start the days terrestrial action with a 19 runner sprint handicap over 5f for three year olds and upwards. The only three year old in the race is David Simcock’s Harry Brown who is not without a chance although is 4lb wrong at the weights here today. Top weight Rohaan is a real Ascot specialist having won 4 of his 7 starts here although I’m not sure dropping back to the minimum trip will suit this habitual slow starter trained by David Evans. Charlie Hills’ Equilateral is an interesting runner who was last seen when 5th in the Group 1 Kings Stand Stakes at the Royal meeting and this represents a significant drop in class. Last year’s 1-2-3 are all back for another go with Mountain Peak, who made all to strike, 8lb lower now but is woefully out of form having only beaten two horses in his three races this season. Runner up last year was the Bryan Smart trained Bond Chairman who went down by just a neck and although he is 11lb worse off with Mountain Peak comes here having won at Doncaster a month ago and with just a 3lb rise for that win and a decent draw in stall 19, so he can come over and bag the normally favoured near side rail, looks sure to run well again. Back in third last year was the David and Nicola Barron trained Zarzyni who is on a very nice mark now some 13lb better off for 1 1/2L with Bond Chairman and looks close to a winning run having finished 4th of 20 in the Epsom Dash last time out. I’ll split my bets between him and Bond Chairman each way with additional places.   BOND CHAIRMAN 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 ZARZYNI 1 point each way @ 12/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345   York 14:00 A dozen milers line up for this 1M class 2 0-105 handicap. The race looks wide open with many holding similar chances. Last year’s one two Eileen Dubh, trained by Karl Burke and David O’Meara’s Blue For You renew rivalry on the same terms and both hold decent clams whilst William Haggas’s Aramaic, who ran well last weekend over 10F steps back in trip which may not suit. La Trinidad won this race two years ago and bounced back to winning form at Doncaster last time out, winning by 4 3/4L, a race for which the handicapper has clobbered him with a 9lb rise in the weights. The most interesting runner is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Wild Lion who kept on well to win a 7F handicap here in first time cheek pieces last month. He’s been put up 4lb for that win when ridden by Kieran O’Neill but is ridden today by Bin Suroor’s assistant’s son Christian Howarth who is good value for his 5lb and thus will be racing off of a one pound less mark than when winning last time. He’s the pick in a tricky looking handicap.   WILD LION 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Ascot 14:20 Just the nine here for the Group 2 Summer Mile for four year olds and upwards. The ground is very important here with both William Haggas’s Aldaary and Ralph Beckett’s Angel Bleu better on softer conditions. If the ground doesn’t ease from the current good to firm then we could easily see one or both missing the contest. John & Thady Gosden’s Mighty Ulysses has obviously had training problems as we haven’t seen him for 329 days and can be overlooked here whilst Ralph Beckett’s Jimi Hendrix must be a player having won the Royal Hunt Cup over the straight mile here at the Royal meeting in great style. Charlie Appleby has his string in fine form and despite a 3lb penalty for a Group 2 victory in Dubai at the beginning of the year his Master Of The Sea, who has by all accounts been burning up the gallops at Moultons Paddocks recently, can take this mile contest. A classy performer who was runner up in the 2001 2000 Guineas hasnt been seen for 112 days and with William Buick needed at Newmarket its James Doyle who comes in for the ride. He looks the pick here.   MASTER OF THE SEAS 1 points win @ 7/2 William Hill   York 14:35 Next up is the listed 5F John Smith’s City Walls Stakes for three year olds and upwards. Edward Bethel is having a fine season and is currently running at a 42% win ratio. He saddles his five year old Regional here who is ridden by Callum Rodriguez. He’s chasing a hat trick of victories having won a handicap over course and distance and a listed contest at Haydock and although he has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for that latest listed victory can go close. Karl Burke’s Silky Wilkie went down in a blanket finish in the 5F Epsom Dash last time and is the highest rated off the eleven runner field and has obvious claims along with one of the four three year olds here, Queen Me. She looks the most interesting in the field dropping to the minimum trip for the first time having failed to stay a mile on her re-appearance in the 1000 Guineas and then a credible 6th of 13 (beaten 3L) in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. With Andrea Atzeni in the saddle for the first time she looks the each way value here.   QUEEN ME 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newmarket 14:50 Twelve go to post for this class 2 bet365 Mile Handicap which,like all of today’s handicaps, has an open look about it. Clive Cox’s Havana Blue is chasing a hat trick following victories at the two Newmarket courses with his recent victory coming a fortnight ago over 7F. The grey steps up to a mile here and that may bring about further improvement especially with Ryan Moore taking over from John Fahy. William Haggas’s Tafreej won a four runner Yarmouth 1M handicap a fortnight ago and despite a 6lb rise in the weights can also be competitive whilst the Marco Botti runner Royal Dubai, who ran well in defeat at Chester last month will appreciate stepping up in trip. Quantum Impact is another with claims having excuses for his disappointing run at Royal Ascot in the Britannia Handicap and is yet another with a chance. An open enough handicap where stakes should be kept small but I’ll chance the Ryan Moore ridden Havana Blue each way.   HAVANA BLUE 1 point each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234   York 15:10 As always a very tight knit handicap in which several can be given chances. Two of the best handicapped horses are Nobel and Long Tradition who both carry penalties for recent easy all weather success’s and are officially 4lb and 9lb well in here today. Spirit Dancer ran a stormer in this race last year when he was forced across the track by eventual winner (and future Group one winner) Anmaat. He has an excellent track record and has to be part of the staking plan although a very wide draw of 19 may not be ideal.   LONG TRADITION 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 123456 SPIRIT DANCER 1/2 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 123456     Newmarket 15:25 Just the ten go to post for this Group 2 bet365 Superlative Stakes for two year olds. We have the 5th (Haatem) and 8th (Spanish Phoenix) from the Coventry Stakes at the Royal meeting but it will be a major surprise if one of the front two doesn’t take this. Charlie Appleby has a great record in this winning four of the last six renewals and was also runner up in this last year. He obviously saddles one of his better juveniles in this contest and this year it’s Great Truth, a well related son of Dubawi who bolted up on his racecourse debut at Leicester over 7F having been well supported into 8/11. He came home 5 1/2L to the good that day and will surely run a big race here. The big danger has to be the Aidan O’Brien trained City Of Troy, a son of Justify who like his main danger Great Truth made a scintillating winning debut, when spread eagling his field in a 7F maiden at The Curragh a fortnight ago coming home 2 1/2L to the good. He was never stronger than at the finish and Ryan Moore apparently took an age to pull him up. It’s a hard one to call but at the current prices and with Appleby having such a good record in the race its Great Truth for me in a race where we could be seeing the best two year old seen out so far.   GREAT TRUTH 1 point win @ 3/1 Paddy Power   York 15:45 Just the six runners for the 1M 6F John Smith’s Silver Cup, a Group 3 event for four year olds and upwards. The warm favourite is the William Haggas trained Hamish who is 6lb better and upwards of this field even with a 3lb penalty for winning the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester back in May. He does like to get his toe in and will be very hard to beat especially if the rain turns the ground on the easy side. Tom Marquand is here to ride which is obviously a bonus and although too skinny to back it will be a surprise if he doesn’t outclass these. Next best in the race is the Brian Ellison trained stayer Tashkan who was pulled out of both the Yorkshire Cup and Ascot Gold Cup due to the fast ground and is another who needs the ground on the soft side to be seen to his best. This looks all about Hamish and he’s a confident selection.   Newmarket 16:00 A maximum bumper field of 20 have declared for the 7F bet365 Bunbury Cup for three year olds and upwards. As always theres a very open look about this valuable handicap. Awaal has been placed in the Lincoln and the Royal Hunt Cup this season over a mile although I’m not sure dropping to 7F will be in his favour. Last year’s winner Bless Him and runner up Ropey Guest renew rivalry having swopped stalls positions this time around (what were the chances of that?). Bless Him is a proud better off for 1 1/4L and has claims here again. Back in fourth last year was the William Haggas trained Montassib and although he’s worse off with the pair that finished ahead of that day has the assistance of William Buick and can’t be ruled out. The only three year old in the race is Eve Johnson Houghton’s Streets Of Gold who was last seen when running third in the jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, goes on any ground and drawn in the middle can go any way jockey Charlie Bishop wants. He’s got future group entries at both Goodwood and York and should run well. I’ll take him each way with additional places alongside Ralph Beckett’s Biggles who’s drawn in stall 18 and has the assistance of the world’s best jockey Ryan Moore. Moore was on board when winning his side in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot last time and with Beckett among the winners recently can run a big race. There’s others with good chances but I’ll dutch Streets Of Gold and Biggles.   STREETS OF GOLD 1 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345 BIGGLES 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Newmarket 16:35 A fascinating renewal of the July Cup with the three-year-old sprinters taking on their elders. Shaquille ran an amazing race at Ascot in the Commonwealth Cup when despite starting slowly ran on to run down the hot favourite Little Big Bear and from watching that race it’s hard to feel that the latter can turn the tables especially as his trainer stated in the week that he had missed some vital work since. That said Shaquille is priced accordingly at around the 7-4 mark and represents scant value at present. The ground is very important to the likes of Kinross and Vadream as both love the mud and can only be considered were the ground to ride soft. The one to be with at present is Michael Dods’s Azure Blue who is a rapidly improving sprinter who’s taken giant steps this season and may still be on the upgrade if his defeat of arguably the best sprinter around Highfield Princess at York is anything to go by. Dods is a past master at improving sprinters with the likes of Mabs Cross and Meccas Choice both progressing from handicaps to the top level and he might just have another here in the shape of Azure Blue. Advised in my ante-post piece at 5-1 he still looks value at his current odds.   AZURE BLUE 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365   All prices were available at time of writing
  22. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from black rabbit in Racing chat -Friday 14th July   
    Day two of the Newmarket July Meeting and we have six races covered by the ITV cameras with the first four on the card live plus we have a couple of races from York including the Group 3 William Hill Summer Stakes at 14:40. The ground is currently good to firm at Newmarket and good at York although there are showers forecast. Here’s my thoughts on the six races.   Newmarket 13:50 We start the day off with a thirteen runner three year old class 2 Heritage Handicap over 10F. CharlieAppleby has his local string in fine form now unlike three weeks ago at Royal Ascot when the yard went 0 from 18 with their runners. He saddles a brace of decent three year olds in top weight Local Dynasty and Royal Ascot 6th Tagabawa here. William Buick, one would think, has had the pick here and rides the latter who is dropping in trip here. It would be no shock were either to take this but I want to be with one further down the handicap who looks very well treated in the Freddie and Martyn Meade trained Dayzee. A dual winner from four outings on the all-weather he made an excellent turf debut when out battling the John & Thady Gosden trained Spring Fever at Salisbury over today’s trip. The pair pulled some 7L clear of the third and with Spring Fever winning at Newmarket by 5 1/2L since the form looks very good. Dayzee was put up 6lb for that success although the official handicapper has pushed him up a further 2lb following the runner up’s subsequent easy victory which wont come into affect until after this race. He looks great each way value with Marco Ghiani taking over from Sean Levey. There are, as one would expect, plenty of others that can be given chances here including the William Haggas handicap debutant Seendid and Alan King’s maiden winner Westerton ridden by Ryan Moore. A competitive race to start day two and it’s Dayzee each way for me.   DAYZEE 1 point each way @ 14/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234   York 14:05 The first of two televised races from York is the class 2 7F handicap which has attracted just the eight runners. Nigel Tinkler’s Another Investment heads the betting having bolted up over course and distance four weeks ago winning by 5L. He’s been hammered by the handicapper mind and been raised 11lb and at the current prices can be taken on here. Michael Dods’s Norhern Express ran a stormer at Royal Ascot in the Buckingham Palace Handicap to finish third (beaten 1 1/4L)to Witch Hunter and a reproduction of that effort will see him go very close. Only 2 3/4L behind that day was the David O’Meara trained Bopedro and on 2lb better terms is maybe the biggest threat to Northern Express who looks sure to be thereabouts and is the selection here.   NORTHERN EXPRESS 1 point win @ 3/1 bet365   Newmarket 14:25 Only five have declared for the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridgeshire Stakes run over 6F for two year old fillies. We have a warm favourite in the Charlie Appleby trained Kodiac filly Star Of Mystery. She’s already shown herself to be a smart sort by following up her Haydock novice win with a scintillating listed victory over course and distance a fortnight ago. She travelled strongly that day and went clear to win by 4L and if in the same mood will be very hard to beat. Amo Racing bring a brace of nice fillies to the race in Persian Dreamer and Thanksbutnothanks, though both will need to raise their game with the latter some 25lb officially behind the warm favourite and the former was a length and a half behind Soprano at Royal Ascot. Soprano was an eleventh hour defection due to a cock up with some medication which should leave this a cake walk for Star Of Mystery who's now too skinny to back at around the 1/3 mark.   York 14:40 The 6F William Hill Summer Stakes is a Group 3 contest for three year old fillies and mares which this year has attracted ten runners. The one they all have to beat is the Karl Burke trained Swingalong who takes a drop in class here having finished third (beaten 2L) in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup behind Shaquille and Little Big Bear when dropping in trip. This trip obviously suits her and if she can reproduce that run will be hard to beat. Her biggest danger may well be fellow three year Juliet Sienna, trained by Ralph Beckett. She was only half a length behind Swingalong in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket last September and probably didn’t stay a mile on her only run this season. Gale Force Maya has a great record here winning three of her five starts on the Knavesmire and was third in this last year. She has however shown little in two starts this season and is hard to fancy on recent form. James Tate’s Royal Aclaim looked very smart when winning over 5F at the Ebor meeting here last August but hasn’t really gone on from that win and steps up in trip today. Mamma’s Girl drops in trip having been well beaten in the 1000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes and has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for her Nell Gwyn victory in the spring. If reproducing her last run this should be going to the favourite Swingalong although I can’t resist a small each way saver on Juliet Sierra who was only just behind her last year in Group 1 company.   SWINGALONG 2 points win @ 15/8 William Hill JULIET SIERRA 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 123   Newmarket 15:00 Next up is the 1M 6F class 2 bet365 Heritage Handicap, for four year old’s and upwards. Saedd Bin Suroor’s top weight Live Your Dream won this very race two years ago from a 10lb lower handicap mark and appears to have a golden chance of taking the first prize again, this time with Kevin Stott doing the steering. Two good efforts in valuable handicaps already this season over 1M 4F including when third (beaten 2L) in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot should set him up to take this especially as the extra two furlongs will be in his favour. Roger Varian’s Aimeric was just two lengths behind Live Your Dream at Ascot and is now 2lb better so shouldn’t be that far away from his old rival and can also run well. Adrian Paul Keatley’s Kihavah is chasing a four timer (five timer if you include his hurdles win last month) rising some 15lb in the weights and doesn’t have much in hand of George Scott’s Prydwen who was a head behind him last time at Ayr and is a pound better off. Torcello only comes into the equation were the heavens to open and this looks a great opportunity for Live Your Dream to open his account for the season.   LIVE YOUR DREAM 2 points win @ 11/4 BetVictor   Newmarket 15:35 A filed of nine assemble for the first Group 1 of the week in the shape of the 1M Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes, a race for three year old fillies and upwards. George Boughey’s Via Sistina heads the market following wins at Newmarket (Group 2) and The Curragh (Group 1) with her latest win coming in the Pretty Polly Stakes, which looked a weak renewal. She has definite claims but I would be a bit concerned were the ground to ride fast as shes been kept to good and slower ground and has actually been pulled out twice in her career due to fast ground. At around the 2/1 mark I think we can look elsewhere. Last year’s winner Prosperous Voyage and three year old Remarquee form a potent partnership from the Ralph Beckett stable with preference for the latter who took the Fred Darling at Newbury on her re-appearance on soft ground. Having finished down the field in the 1000 Guineas she bounced back to form, despite losing a shoe, to run the smart Tahiyra to a length when not getting the clearest of runs in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes. She had been labelled a soft ground performer coming into that run but it was run on good to firm and was a career best. If reproducing that effort she looks the bet here. John & Thady Gosden supplemented Nashwa earlier in the week and on her best form of last season when winning the Group 1 French Oaks and Nassau Stakes is a serious player although in two runs this season seems a bit below that form currently. The Gosden’s also have impressive Sandringham Handicap winner Coppice entered and I can see her outrunning her odds. I’ll stick with the Rob Hornby ridden Remarquee to prove his Royal Ascot win was no fluke.   REMARQUEE 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 123  
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    The Brigadier got a reaction from kensland in Racing chat -Friday 14th July   
    Day two of the Newmarket July Meeting and we have six races covered by the ITV cameras with the first four on the card live plus we have a couple of races from York including the Group 3 William Hill Summer Stakes at 14:40. The ground is currently good to firm at Newmarket and good at York although there are showers forecast. Here’s my thoughts on the six races.   Newmarket 13:50 We start the day off with a thirteen runner three year old class 2 Heritage Handicap over 10F. CharlieAppleby has his local string in fine form now unlike three weeks ago at Royal Ascot when the yard went 0 from 18 with their runners. He saddles a brace of decent three year olds in top weight Local Dynasty and Royal Ascot 6th Tagabawa here. William Buick, one would think, has had the pick here and rides the latter who is dropping in trip here. It would be no shock were either to take this but I want to be with one further down the handicap who looks very well treated in the Freddie and Martyn Meade trained Dayzee. A dual winner from four outings on the all-weather he made an excellent turf debut when out battling the John & Thady Gosden trained Spring Fever at Salisbury over today’s trip. The pair pulled some 7L clear of the third and with Spring Fever winning at Newmarket by 5 1/2L since the form looks very good. Dayzee was put up 6lb for that success although the official handicapper has pushed him up a further 2lb following the runner up’s subsequent easy victory which wont come into affect until after this race. He looks great each way value with Marco Ghiani taking over from Sean Levey. There are, as one would expect, plenty of others that can be given chances here including the William Haggas handicap debutant Seendid and Alan King’s maiden winner Westerton ridden by Ryan Moore. A competitive race to start day two and it’s Dayzee each way for me.   DAYZEE 1 point each way @ 14/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234   York 14:05 The first of two televised races from York is the class 2 7F handicap which has attracted just the eight runners. Nigel Tinkler’s Another Investment heads the betting having bolted up over course and distance four weeks ago winning by 5L. He’s been hammered by the handicapper mind and been raised 11lb and at the current prices can be taken on here. Michael Dods’s Norhern Express ran a stormer at Royal Ascot in the Buckingham Palace Handicap to finish third (beaten 1 1/4L)to Witch Hunter and a reproduction of that effort will see him go very close. Only 2 3/4L behind that day was the David O’Meara trained Bopedro and on 2lb better terms is maybe the biggest threat to Northern Express who looks sure to be thereabouts and is the selection here.   NORTHERN EXPRESS 1 point win @ 3/1 bet365   Newmarket 14:25 Only five have declared for the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridgeshire Stakes run over 6F for two year old fillies. We have a warm favourite in the Charlie Appleby trained Kodiac filly Star Of Mystery. She’s already shown herself to be a smart sort by following up her Haydock novice win with a scintillating listed victory over course and distance a fortnight ago. She travelled strongly that day and went clear to win by 4L and if in the same mood will be very hard to beat. Amo Racing bring a brace of nice fillies to the race in Persian Dreamer and Thanksbutnothanks, though both will need to raise their game with the latter some 25lb officially behind the warm favourite and the former was a length and a half behind Soprano at Royal Ascot. Soprano was an eleventh hour defection due to a cock up with some medication which should leave this a cake walk for Star Of Mystery who's now too skinny to back at around the 1/3 mark.   York 14:40 The 6F William Hill Summer Stakes is a Group 3 contest for three year old fillies and mares which this year has attracted ten runners. The one they all have to beat is the Karl Burke trained Swingalong who takes a drop in class here having finished third (beaten 2L) in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup behind Shaquille and Little Big Bear when dropping in trip. This trip obviously suits her and if she can reproduce that run will be hard to beat. Her biggest danger may well be fellow three year Juliet Sienna, trained by Ralph Beckett. She was only half a length behind Swingalong in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket last September and probably didn’t stay a mile on her only run this season. Gale Force Maya has a great record here winning three of her five starts on the Knavesmire and was third in this last year. She has however shown little in two starts this season and is hard to fancy on recent form. James Tate’s Royal Aclaim looked very smart when winning over 5F at the Ebor meeting here last August but hasn’t really gone on from that win and steps up in trip today. Mamma’s Girl drops in trip having been well beaten in the 1000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes and has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for her Nell Gwyn victory in the spring. If reproducing her last run this should be going to the favourite Swingalong although I can’t resist a small each way saver on Juliet Sierra who was only just behind her last year in Group 1 company.   SWINGALONG 2 points win @ 15/8 William Hill JULIET SIERRA 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 123   Newmarket 15:00 Next up is the 1M 6F class 2 bet365 Heritage Handicap, for four year old’s and upwards. Saedd Bin Suroor’s top weight Live Your Dream won this very race two years ago from a 10lb lower handicap mark and appears to have a golden chance of taking the first prize again, this time with Kevin Stott doing the steering. Two good efforts in valuable handicaps already this season over 1M 4F including when third (beaten 2L) in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot should set him up to take this especially as the extra two furlongs will be in his favour. Roger Varian’s Aimeric was just two lengths behind Live Your Dream at Ascot and is now 2lb better so shouldn’t be that far away from his old rival and can also run well. Adrian Paul Keatley’s Kihavah is chasing a four timer (five timer if you include his hurdles win last month) rising some 15lb in the weights and doesn’t have much in hand of George Scott’s Prydwen who was a head behind him last time at Ayr and is a pound better off. Torcello only comes into the equation were the heavens to open and this looks a great opportunity for Live Your Dream to open his account for the season.   LIVE YOUR DREAM 2 points win @ 11/4 BetVictor   Newmarket 15:35 A filed of nine assemble for the first Group 1 of the week in the shape of the 1M Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes, a race for three year old fillies and upwards. George Boughey’s Via Sistina heads the market following wins at Newmarket (Group 2) and The Curragh (Group 1) with her latest win coming in the Pretty Polly Stakes, which looked a weak renewal. She has definite claims but I would be a bit concerned were the ground to ride fast as shes been kept to good and slower ground and has actually been pulled out twice in her career due to fast ground. At around the 2/1 mark I think we can look elsewhere. Last year’s winner Prosperous Voyage and three year old Remarquee form a potent partnership from the Ralph Beckett stable with preference for the latter who took the Fred Darling at Newbury on her re-appearance on soft ground. Having finished down the field in the 1000 Guineas she bounced back to form, despite losing a shoe, to run the smart Tahiyra to a length when not getting the clearest of runs in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes. She had been labelled a soft ground performer coming into that run but it was run on good to firm and was a career best. If reproducing that effort she looks the bet here. John & Thady Gosden supplemented Nashwa earlier in the week and on her best form of last season when winning the Group 1 French Oaks and Nassau Stakes is a serious player although in two runs this season seems a bit below that form currently. The Gosden’s also have impressive Sandringham Handicap winner Coppice entered and I can see her outrunning her odds. I’ll stick with the Rob Hornby ridden Remarquee to prove his Royal Ascot win was no fluke.   REMARQUEE 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 123  
  24. Like
    The Brigadier got a reaction from Brahmin in Racing chat -Friday 14th July   
    Day two of the Newmarket July Meeting and we have six races covered by the ITV cameras with the first four on the card live plus we have a couple of races from York including the Group 3 William Hill Summer Stakes at 14:40. The ground is currently good to firm at Newmarket and good at York although there are showers forecast. Here’s my thoughts on the six races.   Newmarket 13:50 We start the day off with a thirteen runner three year old class 2 Heritage Handicap over 10F. CharlieAppleby has his local string in fine form now unlike three weeks ago at Royal Ascot when the yard went 0 from 18 with their runners. He saddles a brace of decent three year olds in top weight Local Dynasty and Royal Ascot 6th Tagabawa here. William Buick, one would think, has had the pick here and rides the latter who is dropping in trip here. It would be no shock were either to take this but I want to be with one further down the handicap who looks very well treated in the Freddie and Martyn Meade trained Dayzee. A dual winner from four outings on the all-weather he made an excellent turf debut when out battling the John & Thady Gosden trained Spring Fever at Salisbury over today’s trip. The pair pulled some 7L clear of the third and with Spring Fever winning at Newmarket by 5 1/2L since the form looks very good. Dayzee was put up 6lb for that success although the official handicapper has pushed him up a further 2lb following the runner up’s subsequent easy victory which wont come into affect until after this race. He looks great each way value with Marco Ghiani taking over from Sean Levey. There are, as one would expect, plenty of others that can be given chances here including the William Haggas handicap debutant Seendid and Alan King’s maiden winner Westerton ridden by Ryan Moore. A competitive race to start day two and it’s Dayzee each way for me.   DAYZEE 1 point each way @ 14/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234   York 14:05 The first of two televised races from York is the class 2 7F handicap which has attracted just the eight runners. Nigel Tinkler’s Another Investment heads the betting having bolted up over course and distance four weeks ago winning by 5L. He’s been hammered by the handicapper mind and been raised 11lb and at the current prices can be taken on here. Michael Dods’s Norhern Express ran a stormer at Royal Ascot in the Buckingham Palace Handicap to finish third (beaten 1 1/4L)to Witch Hunter and a reproduction of that effort will see him go very close. Only 2 3/4L behind that day was the David O’Meara trained Bopedro and on 2lb better terms is maybe the biggest threat to Northern Express who looks sure to be thereabouts and is the selection here.   NORTHERN EXPRESS 1 point win @ 3/1 bet365   Newmarket 14:25 Only five have declared for the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridgeshire Stakes run over 6F for two year old fillies. We have a warm favourite in the Charlie Appleby trained Kodiac filly Star Of Mystery. She’s already shown herself to be a smart sort by following up her Haydock novice win with a scintillating listed victory over course and distance a fortnight ago. She travelled strongly that day and went clear to win by 4L and if in the same mood will be very hard to beat. Amo Racing bring a brace of nice fillies to the race in Persian Dreamer and Thanksbutnothanks, though both will need to raise their game with the latter some 25lb officially behind the warm favourite and the former was a length and a half behind Soprano at Royal Ascot. Soprano was an eleventh hour defection due to a cock up with some medication which should leave this a cake walk for Star Of Mystery who's now too skinny to back at around the 1/3 mark.   York 14:40 The 6F William Hill Summer Stakes is a Group 3 contest for three year old fillies and mares which this year has attracted ten runners. The one they all have to beat is the Karl Burke trained Swingalong who takes a drop in class here having finished third (beaten 2L) in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup behind Shaquille and Little Big Bear when dropping in trip. This trip obviously suits her and if she can reproduce that run will be hard to beat. Her biggest danger may well be fellow three year Juliet Sienna, trained by Ralph Beckett. She was only half a length behind Swingalong in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket last September and probably didn’t stay a mile on her only run this season. Gale Force Maya has a great record here winning three of her five starts on the Knavesmire and was third in this last year. She has however shown little in two starts this season and is hard to fancy on recent form. James Tate’s Royal Aclaim looked very smart when winning over 5F at the Ebor meeting here last August but hasn’t really gone on from that win and steps up in trip today. Mamma’s Girl drops in trip having been well beaten in the 1000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes and has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for her Nell Gwyn victory in the spring. If reproducing her last run this should be going to the favourite Swingalong although I can’t resist a small each way saver on Juliet Sierra who was only just behind her last year in Group 1 company.   SWINGALONG 2 points win @ 15/8 William Hill JULIET SIERRA 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 123   Newmarket 15:00 Next up is the 1M 6F class 2 bet365 Heritage Handicap, for four year old’s and upwards. Saedd Bin Suroor’s top weight Live Your Dream won this very race two years ago from a 10lb lower handicap mark and appears to have a golden chance of taking the first prize again, this time with Kevin Stott doing the steering. Two good efforts in valuable handicaps already this season over 1M 4F including when third (beaten 2L) in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot should set him up to take this especially as the extra two furlongs will be in his favour. Roger Varian’s Aimeric was just two lengths behind Live Your Dream at Ascot and is now 2lb better so shouldn’t be that far away from his old rival and can also run well. Adrian Paul Keatley’s Kihavah is chasing a four timer (five timer if you include his hurdles win last month) rising some 15lb in the weights and doesn’t have much in hand of George Scott’s Prydwen who was a head behind him last time at Ayr and is a pound better off. Torcello only comes into the equation were the heavens to open and this looks a great opportunity for Live Your Dream to open his account for the season.   LIVE YOUR DREAM 2 points win @ 11/4 BetVictor   Newmarket 15:35 A filed of nine assemble for the first Group 1 of the week in the shape of the 1M Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes, a race for three year old fillies and upwards. George Boughey’s Via Sistina heads the market following wins at Newmarket (Group 2) and The Curragh (Group 1) with her latest win coming in the Pretty Polly Stakes, which looked a weak renewal. She has definite claims but I would be a bit concerned were the ground to ride fast as shes been kept to good and slower ground and has actually been pulled out twice in her career due to fast ground. At around the 2/1 mark I think we can look elsewhere. Last year’s winner Prosperous Voyage and three year old Remarquee form a potent partnership from the Ralph Beckett stable with preference for the latter who took the Fred Darling at Newbury on her re-appearance on soft ground. Having finished down the field in the 1000 Guineas she bounced back to form, despite losing a shoe, to run the smart Tahiyra to a length when not getting the clearest of runs in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes. She had been labelled a soft ground performer coming into that run but it was run on good to firm and was a career best. If reproducing that effort she looks the bet here. John & Thady Gosden supplemented Nashwa earlier in the week and on her best form of last season when winning the Group 1 French Oaks and Nassau Stakes is a serious player although in two runs this season seems a bit below that form currently. The Gosden’s also have impressive Sandringham Handicap winner Coppice entered and I can see her outrunning her odds. I’ll stick with the Rob Hornby ridden Remarquee to prove his Royal Ascot win was no fluke.   REMARQUEE 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 123  
  25. Like
    The Brigadier reacted to MCLARKE in Racing chat-Saturday 15th July   
    Biggles passes my tests in terms of weight, draw and age, along with Cruyff Turn at 25/1
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