Zilzalian

welcome to the forum !
I think the problem with lists of horses to follow is that it's tempting not to evaluate the races they ran in that earned them the flag nor the race that they're due to run in next time out. In other words if you just get a notification that a horse you've bookmarked to follow is running tomorrow it's tempting to back it just because it's on your list of horses to follow without looking more closely at it's real chances
I think it's a similar problem with Stable Tours that you get at the beginning of each season or basically trainers opinions full stop. They might know a lot about the horse in their yard but they don't know much about the ten other runners in the 3.15 tomorrow, ie the ones their horse is running against. It might be tempting to back a horse because the trainer has singled him out in his pre-season stable tour but there's no context of the race he's running in and the other horses he's running against 

I have Vaynor top rated in this 355 Epsom. Might try a little Rfc at those prices.

Now put them in order of importance, i would take a good guess that different punters put them in different orders. You could add on stopwatch (RP) big fields v small fields and even naps the list is almost endless. Once you made your selection, The big question i would ask is- what was it based on? did you end up using speed figures or form?

Nah being the proverbial twat i'm not having tryscorer (not allowed in scrabble games) as one word sorry. 💩😁

Well i wouldn't back a Venetia Williams horse at the moment, that's an angle...

Nah being the proverbial twat i'm not having tryscorer (not allowed in scrabble games) as one word sorry. 💩😁

Ermm a pedantic grammar policeman is wondering where "coupe" comes into things and thinks "tryscorer" should be two words. 🤣👨‍🎓

The distance angle depends on the age of a horse. EG this time of year most of last years 2yo horses are stepping up in distance, but lets say you have a moderate 5 year old that has never won over the distance that is stepping up in trip it is usually a desperate attempt by the trainer to try something new, we see this at all levels including group races. With speed figures you basically have 2 choices 1. Use the pure figure or 2. Try to chip away using a list of criteria that you have to decide which one to back in a tight handicap. Big problem i have identified is that you can end up with too many variables thus end up throwing the baby out with the bath water. Think of all the variables/considerations you can come up with and list them to see what i mean and then post them on here. Others will quickly point out which ones you missed off your list.

Made me laugh .....my computer uses 17 of your list as I worked down so they must all have a big effect ...lol 🤣

Indeed, it is best to stick to the KISS system, I never use more than 5 criteria in any system that I use
I did find today's selection of Giselles Izzy strange, 30 races over 6 or 7 furlongs with reasonable success but today dropped to 5 furlongs, maybe trying to get the handicap mark down

The distance angle depends on the age of a horse. EG this time of year most of last years 2yo horses are stepping up in distance, but lets say you have a moderate 5 year old that has never won over the distance that is stepping up in trip it is usually a desperate attempt by the trainer to try something new, we see this at all levels including group races. With speed figures you basically have 2 choices 1. Use the pure figure or 2. Try to chip away using a list of criteria that you have to decide which one to back in a tight handicap. Big problem i have identified is that you can end up with too many variables thus end up throwing the baby out with the bath water. Think of all the variables/considerations you can come up with and list them to see what i mean and then post them on here. Others will quickly point out which ones you missed off your list.

EGBERT no bacon 😁

EGBERT no bacon 😁

Treat 2yo races differently is my advice to you because you can't (trainers) mess 2yo's about too much and they are trying to find out their level for the future. At pattern level i would suggest that 2yo speed figures are the most accurate. One of the best tools is deciding whether the rating you assign to a horse is above or below the average.

I too have Painite top rated but the numbers are restricted due to the lack of amount of runs involved i like the look of looking for queen so its a (Rfc around 85/1) race for me. The argument for the fav is definitely weak.

Typical I did the 1st race 

I might start having a few small bets if I can get decent prices with the bookies or on Betfair (Under The Twilight returned 18.5 today)

No reason if you get four in a day not to pop them on to a lucky 15 to small stakes, or even a patent if three for that matter.

I'm glad to join!
I've been interested in sports betting for a long time, but only recently started doing it more consciously. I hope socializing here will boost my confidence in making the right choice)
 
Besides here is my favourite game review

A little bonus in speed figures is it is very easy to produce a list/become aware of bad/poor horses which are a very good measure of the strength of a race especially if the said horse is fav or second fav. Great for deciding what stake to invest if you have one at a decent price.

Well in my opinion and they way i formulate speed figures, i go off all its wins and places, horses move up and down the handicap over the years so they are relevant certainly for 4 years and i would suggest beyond, didn't Documenting win the other day at a decent price 22/1? That horse is 11 years old, Boom the Groom won 3 times last year at decent prices and that one is 13, the older horses tend to run at their own level all be it lack consistency steadily dropping down in grade until they are retired. That's why i am very weary of handicaps and only use speed seriously in Pattern races or in the heritage handicaps "worth winning". That's not to say they should be discarded because i use this type of horse in Lucky 15 etc for a bit of fun and have done reasonably well out of them. One thing to bear in mind about distances and goings in pattern races the top trainers have a pretty good idea of whether a horse can do the trip or ground particularly as they age from 2yo-3yo-4yo  that's why we have so many horses pulled out if the conditions don't suit Trueshan is a good example of that. I do disregard or downgrade horses at distances that they haven't won over once they reach 4 year old and beyond especially in sprints but there are always exceptions to the rules.

Cheers @Zilzalian 👍

Craven Meeting Tuesday to Thursday on what looks like will be testing conditions & bloody cold at around 11-12 degrees so the flat is slowly getting going , still way too many all weather meetings imo .

The dog watcher holds on for the win.
Calvas late surge falls short as does Mrjol in 3rd
Special mention to @harry_rag who also took part but contributed little else apart from ensuring the accuracy of Grammar the pedantic B'stard. 👨‍🎓 😁🤣