Zilzalian

Was thinking of various strategies for the final day of Christmas tipsters competition given i have 3rd place at the mo.
1 i do nothing and stay on +11 the others get 9 losers i win. the danger is someone comes from nowhere.
2 i do ,3 4 selections save myself points which the leader could have done and retained his lead given i or others in contention get 9 losers
3 i do 9 selections and hope for the best knowing if i get 9 losers i am out
4 play the game in the spirit of its intention given that the leader and 2nd and most others have submitted 9 entries.
5 stop being a PRAT and ffs just pick 9 horses if u win you win if you lose you lose. ????
So option 5 it is. Good luck every one.

Kemp 120 jacamar
Kemp 155 ahoy senor
weth  210 taking risks
Kemp 230 tritonic
Kemp 305 frodon

'The standard isn't good enough' - John Francome blasts modern-day jockeys | Horse Racing News | Racing Post
 

'The standard isn't good enough' - John Francome blasts modern-day jockeys | Horse Racing News | Racing Post
 

Very well done @Tipsterix good luck for the next few rounds

Very well done @Tipsterix good luck for the next few rounds

Very well done @Tipsterix good luck for the next few rounds

Very well done @Tipsterix good luck for the next few rounds

if its any consolation your opponent got 3 results. but losing internet is a real pain.

It is - just couldn't connect at all - might even be my laptop - not certain! I would have lost anyway then!

15:42 Deauville (FR): Impulsif

Having said that, I have checked the results over the last 8 years and it has returned an AE of 1.03 from 3,448 selections.
On soft / heavy AE is 1.08
Class 1 to 4 AE is 1.05
19 - 22 furlongs AE is 1.12
Forecast odds rank 4 to 10 AE is 1.17
Age 7-8 AE is 1.09
Last run less than 10 days ago AE is 1.10
7lb claimers AE is 1.17
1st last time AE is 1.08
CD winner AE is 1.08
December to February AE is 1.08
Non novice AE is 1.06
Tuesday to Friday AE is 1.14.
I may well add this to my list of systems.

Here's a few more weight systems from Steve Jones (https://www.cdsystems.uk.com/previousresult.htm)
And here's his definition of a "tight" track, https://www.cdsystems.uk.com/nhtrack.htm
 

I wouldn't be comfortable with a system that was based on only 163 results. I suspect also there was an element of back-fitting. 

Always happy to oblige.
In handicaps on heavy going horses carrying less than 11st 2lbs have an AE of 1.03, those above have an AE of 0.97. This is despite the heavier weights having a strike rate of 13% compared to 10% for the lower weights.
The impact is greater for chases, with an AE of 1.04 compared to 1.02 for hurdles.
Male horses have an AE of 1.05 compared to 0.95 for female horses.
GB courses have an AE of 1.04, Ireland is 0.99.

I notice the racing post cards are including CD wins which is ridiculous when you think about it. As for the train i am just south of Manchester and its 3 changes and over 3 hours journey times for 78 miles (could walk there quicker) so my initial idea of going is terminated forthwith.

I notice the racing post cards are including CD wins which is ridiculous when you think about it. As for the train i am just south of Manchester and its 3 changes and over 3 hours journey times for 78 miles (could walk there quicker) so my initial idea of going is terminated forthwith.

Kilcruit, Envoi Allen, Chacun Pour Soi, Allmankind. Enough said.

I agree, sigh of relief when dh called. i only backed it when it drifted to an unbelievable 16/1 and then better still it returned 18's biggest annoying thing for this greedy bastard i had it in a decent r/forecast with sceaux royal as well. if you consider i wouldn't back it at early 9/1 price so the return was pretty much 9/1, Funny gg Not so sleepy always underrated but has produced at least 3 great efforts at big prices over a few years, because i back bigger prices it really is my type of horse. anyone remember Quito back in the day?
 

Sticking my neck out today and reckoning Saldier 9/1 value could beat Honeysuckle.

Looks like silly price day on tv today probably going to look at the results and say WTF
Results = WTF 
Having said that, I did ok.

Looks like silly price day on tv today probably going to look at the results and say WTF
Results = WTF 
Having said that, I did ok.

I cant believe the price of MIDTOWN in the 1:25 St-Cl 1/1 was 5/4 should be long odds on in my opinion.
there is value and there is value my friends.
That was a very expensive short head for this punter

I cant believe the price of MIDTOWN in the 1:25 St-Cl 1/1 was 5/4 should be long odds on in my opinion.
there is value and there is value my friends.
That was a very expensive short head for this punter