Zilzalian

Yeah but binary event option bets are for girls surely? 🤣😁😂💋

Yeah but binary event option bets are for girls surely? 🤣😁😂💋

Is anyone else intrigued by all this and can't wait to either be laughing or crying once the results are in? 🤣

I agree 100% my speed figures begin with 2yo's and we are this far in and this is all the 2yo races
18/03/24 CURR HH 05F MM 8 A 10.80 9 7 1 ABSOLUTE RULER 22/03/24 ST-CL HH 05F MM 6 A 6.09 8 13 1 CONVO 23/03/24 DONC HH 05F NSK 15 A 7.87 9 7 1 ZMINIATURE 26/03/24 DUND PT 05F MM 9 A 2.88 9 2 1 MONING VIETNAM 26/03/24 SOUT TP 05F MM 8 A 3.72 9 5 1 SEX ON FIRE 30/03/24 CORK HH 05F MM 6 A 11.32 9 7 1 MONOTONE 31/03/24 SOUT TP 05F MN 7 A 5.02 9 2 1 DEAL MAKER 01/04/24 KEMP PT 05F NM 5 A 2.52 9 5 1 PONT NEUF 04/04/24 CHAN HH 05F MM 7 A 9.41 9 2 1 ROCK HUNTER 08/04/24 LING PT 05F NS 4 A 2.39 9 2 1 KUWAITYA 08/04/24 WOLV TP 05F NS 8 A 2.87 9 2 1 LADY LIGHTENING 09/04/24 THIR SS 05F MS 7 A 9.72 9 7 1 ATHERSTONE WARRIOR 10/04/24 WOLV TP 05F MS 6 A 2.43 9 2 1 ENCHANTING EMPRESS 10/04/24 KEMP PT 05F NS 8 A 3.33 9 2 1 KODIBEAT 11/04/24 SOUT TP 05F NS 4 A 3.07 9 5 1 WINCHURCH 12/04/24 DUND PT 05F MM 9 A 4.07 9 2 1 PROUDLY YOURS 12/04/24 ST-CL HH 05F CS 6 A 5.04 8 9 1 HERRENCHIEMSEE 15/04/24 WIND GS 05F NS 10 A 1.16 9 2 1 GOLDEN PARADISE 16/04/24 NEWM GG 05F NS 6 A 2.00 9 7 1 ARRAN 17/04/24 NEWM GG 05F MFS 13 A 0.62 9 2 1 IT AINT TWO 19/04/24 NEWB GS 05F MS 8 A 3.95 9 7 1 HAWAIIAN 19/04/24 BATH GG 05F NS 14 A 4.77 8 11 1 BETTY CLOVER 19/04/24 ST-CL VS 05F CS 12 A 3.73 9 1 1 AWJ 20/04/24 THIR SS 05F FNS 12 A 6.86 9 2 1 MISS LAMAI 20/04/24 BRIG GG 5.5F MS 8 A 2.38 9 2 1 FONDEST DREAM 20/04/24 NOTT SS 05F MS 6 A 5.97 9 5 1 CHILLY BREEZE 21/04/24 MUSS GS 05F NS 5 A 4.97 9 4 1 BARAK 21/04/24 CURR SH 05F MM 6 A 7.29 9 5 1 MIDNIGHT STRIKE 21/04/24 CURR SH 06F MM 11 A 7.51 9 7 1 COWARD OF THE COUNTY 22/04/24 PONT SS 05F NS 11 A 7.31 9 0 1 HOT TO DOT 22/04/24 WINDS GG 05F NS 9 A 2.17 9 2 1 KAADI 23/04/24 YARM GF 05F MS 6 A 1.91 9 7 1 BINADHAM 25/04/24 BEVE SS 05F NS 8 A 6.20 9 0 1 JAYVEE 26/04/24 CHAN GS 05F CS 7 A 1.89 8 7 1 HOT DARLING 27/04/24 LEIC SS 05F MS 7 A 6.94 9 3 1 BLEWBURTON 27/04/24 NAVA GY 06F MM 11 A 7.61 9 7 1 CAMILLE PISSARRO 27/04/24 RIPO SS 05F NS 7 A 6.07 9 7 1 ASSERTIVELY 29/04/24 SOUT TP 05F NS 6 A 3.27 9 7 1 THE MAN 29/04/24 AYR GG 05F MS 6 A 3.65 9 7 1 ZABEEL ROAD 29/04/24 NAAS YY 06F MM 12 A 6.70 9 2 1 SPARKLING SEA 30/04/24 CATT GG 05F MFS 7 A 2.48 9 2 1 ENGLEMERE 01/05/24 ASCO GS 05F COS 6 A 2.96 9 2 1 ENCHANTING EMPRESS 01/05/24 PONT SS 05F MS 5 A 5.33 9 7 1 FRANCISCOS PIECE 01/05/24 BRIG GG 5.5F MS 7 A 3.59 9 2 1 DAISY INTHE BREEZE 01/05/24 KEMP PT 05F MFS 7 A 1.81 8 9 1 RUBYS PROFIT 01/05/24 ST-CL SS 06F MM 8 A 1.26 8 10 1 MADERO

I would hope that you do not marry your systems, you don't strike me as the type of person that would/does, by your own admission you have created/tried many systems, which i think supports my assertion about "smart". So by my definition you are in fact smart.

You guys have certainly sold me on the merits of speed ratings in the right hands (which isn’t me, recent collaborative dabbling not withstanding). I agree they’re primarily a tool that helps with the decision making and need a degree of interpretation. I think a system that involves actually calculating your own “fair” odds and betting when you can get the required margin lends itself more to backing every qualifier without exception, for as long as the returns continue to support that.
I’m happy with that approach, on a busy day with loads of matches I’ll probably just back the system qualifiers (and have plenty of bets). On a quieter day I’ll have a look at the “not quite” bets and see if any look worth backing regardless. I would also consider other backing options where time allows (bet builders, multis, first scorer). I would never second guess the system, even when it throws up Dominic Calvert-Lewin! I think that’s the difference between ratings that give you an idea of the relative merits of the runners and a system that calculates your own fair odds.

Is anyone else intrigued by all this and can't wait to either be laughing or crying once the results are in? 🤣

Sorry Harry just noticed this.  Stopwatch  for Lunar Eclipse is 21 based off its only run if i was rating this it would be followed by a + ie 21+

I think the best thing about systems is throwing up a quick short list if you don't have the time or inclination to spend ages looking at the form for a days racing.......... use your system to get 3 or 4 'posibles' in a field and then look at those horses in more depth
Similar with 'Trends' ......... a quick way to eliminate a lot of runners in big fields
As long there's some logic behind the system or the trends then it's fair enough........ you have to accept that if you're quickly eliminating runners without due study then you're going to miss some winners !
 
 

Biggest problem with system creators is that they become so entrenched in "their baby" that they blind themselves to all other considerations, they shout hallelujah when they get a winner (confirmation bias) but are silent/ignore if a loser. The smart people are those that no matter how much work they have put in to their system they are still able to reason around it taking many other variables into account to form a reasoned judgement. For me my Speed ratings are a starting point and i then see how many negatives i can find in the top rated and then make an informed decision which goes something like this  A. go with the Speed figure. B. don't have a bet. or C. change my mind and bet another horse. On top of this i would consider what stakes each option is worth so If we take A. for example i would ask myself how strong is this number in relation to the others in the field and that would create further options like A. max stake B. Half/part stake. C. win or EW. or D. not a great option in my opinion (although i have on occasion) back more than one in the race. The big thing with me is if my horse doesn't come up to my expectations i don't just shrug it off i really want to know why even if there is no obvious reason and maybe simply got my assessment wrong. Tonight i top rated a french horse in the 730 at Chelmsford it got beat into second at 20/1 beaten by the favourite. Even though the Fav was on a good roll my conclusion was that Tazara was drawn in the widest stall was bumped at the start and it used up a lot of energy getting around the field to lead and i would hazard a guess that it would have been a very close call given a better draw.

730 Chelms Tazara 12/1 ew bet365

133 ST-CL NAPOLITANO 14/1 ew bet365

Spending £20 quid
£8.50 win   Pretty Crystal     14/1
£7.00 win   Porta Fortuna    14/1
No single   Dance Sequence  5/1
6 x 50p      Forecasts
6 x 25p      Tricasts

Spending £20 quid
£8.50 win   Pretty Crystal     14/1
£7.00 win   Porta Fortuna    14/1
No single   Dance Sequence  5/1
6 x 50p      Forecasts
6 x 25p      Tricasts

I don't have any ratings that could be incorporated into this experiment but I do have a numerical system for races up to 8 furlongs
This is based on the average winning trips of sires and damsires. Basically you add them together and divide by two to get a figure in furlongs. I can't remember why now but I called this the SD figure ....... S obviously stands for Stamina but I can't remember what D stands for ........ getting old ! (maybe Distance)
A few years ago I spent a year noting this figure for all winners and horses finishing within 2 lengths of winners in all weather races and then I converted these figures into percentages. If there is any value in this I think it should apply to turf racing as well because it's about the distance not the surface
so for the 2000gns I have range in the field from 7.8 to 10.5 and the 'sweet spot' for horses over a mile is 85 to 95. The following horses qualify with current best price
Alyanaabi - 20/1 wm hill
Haatem - 25/1 bet365
Task Force 20/1 wm hill
This takes into account nothing but the possible suitability for the trip
So for example I have City of Troy with the biggest figure, 10.5 furlongs, which suggests he'd be much more effective in the Derby but he might have enough class to win at a mile even though not ideally suited by it
But on the basis of my little system my 3 E/W shots are .........
Alyanaabi - 20/1 wm hill
Haatem - 25/1 bet365
Task Force 20/1 wm hill
 
 

 

# Horse Odds BF AvAv 1 PORTA FORTUNA 21 26 115.4 2 FALLEN ANGEL 4.5 4.5 113.8 3 YLANG YLANG 5 7.2 113.2 4 DANCE SEQUENCE 6 5.9 108.1 5 SACRED ANGEL 67 100 106.5 6 SEE THE FIRE 10 11.5 106.4 7 REGAL JUBILEE 34 28 106.3 8 RAMATUELLE 11 9.4 106.0 9 DARNATION 41 30 104.3 10 PRETTY CRYSTAL 15 24 103.1 11 CINDERELLAS DREAM 21 21 101.6 12 STAR STYLE 34 23 100.8 13 ROLICA 67 150 98.9 14 STAR MUSIC 67 34 98.5 15 BRILLIANT 67 85 98.3 16 FINSCEAL LUCAS 151 160 89.9 17 CONTENT 26 44 89.1 18 TAMFANA 67 85 86.9 19 ELMALKA 34 30 85.9 20 LUNAR ECLIPSE 67 160 67.0 Here's the "average average" rating, so collectively the top rated scores 115.4% of the average rating. @MCLARKE can I check your rating of 33 for Content, it's a bit of an outlier. What did it do, take a dump outside your driveway? 

I get your point but maybe leave well alone this time until we have the results then see if its significant (given that yours are experimental) and Richards is "form"

Porta Fortuna ties in well with my original 2000g choice/top rated  (a non runner) it did well against the colts last season and i am wondering if that adds to its appeal.

ZILZALIAN KR   STOPWATCH RP SR   MCLARKE MR   RICHARD WESTWOOD RR   TOTALS TR PRETTY CRYSTAL 130   PORTA FORTUNA 116   PORTA FORTUNA 91   FALLEN ANGEL 89   PRETTY CRYSTAL 426 DANCE SEQUENCE 126   YLANG YLANG 113   YLANG YLANG 89   YLANG YLANG 86   DANCE SEQUENCE 414 PORTA FORTUNA 126   RAMATUELLE 112   REGAL JUBILEE 88   PORTA FORTUNA 83   PORTA FORTUNA 409 ROLICA 125   DARNATION 112   FALLEN ANGEL 88   DANCE SEQUENCE 80   ROLICA 405 REGAL JUBILEE 124   FALLEN ANGEL 110   SEE THE FIRE 88   CONTENT 78   REGAL JUBILEE 400 CINDERELLAS DREAM 123   SACRED ANGEL 109   SACRED ANGEL 87   CINDERELLAS DREAM 77   CINDERELLAS DREAM 396 CONTENT 123   SEE THE FIRE 109   STAR STYLE 86   SEE THE FIRE 77   CONTENT 395 FALLEN ANGEL 121   CINDERELLAS DREAM 102   DANCE SEQUENCE 84   PRETTY CRYSTAL 75   FALLEN ANGEL 382 RAMATUELLE 121   DANCE SEQUENCE 101   DARNATION 83   DARNATION 75   RAMATUELLE 380 SACRED ANGEL 120   REGAL JUBILEE 101   STAR MUSIC 81   REGAL JUBILEE 72   SACRED ANGEL 374 YLANG YLANG 118   CONTENT 96   PRETTY CRYSTAL 80   RAMATUELLE 72   YLANG YLANG 366 STAR MUSIC 117   STAR STYLE 96   RAMATUELLE 80   BRILLIANT 72   STAR MUSIC 365 TAMFANA 115   BRILLIANT 96   BRILLIANT 78   ROLICA 70   TAMFANA 359 STAR STYLE 111   STAR MUSIC 91   ROLICA 77   SACRED ANGEL 70   STAR STYLE 349 BRILLIANT 108   PRETTY CRYSTAL 90   ELMALKA 72   STAR STYLE 70   BRILLIANT 340 SEE THE FIRE 107   ROLICA 88   FINSCEAL LUCAS 72   STAR MUSIC 68   SEE THE FIRE 335 ELMALKA 106   FINSCEAL LUCAS 84   TAMFANA 70   TAMFANA 65   ELMALKA 325 DARNATION 104   ELMALKA 67   CINDERELLAS DREAM 68   ELMALKA 65   DARNATION 304 FINSCEAL LUCAS 104   TAMFANA 66   LUNAR ECLIPSE 60   FINSCEAL LUCAS 65   FINSCEAL LUCAS 295 LUNAR ECLIPSE 78   LUNAR ECLIPSE 33   CONTENT 33   LUNAR ECLIPSE 65   LUNAR ECLIPSE 209

Surprised to see fallen angel so low as a dual group 1 winner against a group 3 dance sequence 🤔🤔.....if the ground comes up on the fast side of good its porta fortuna Ew all the way for me 🤔

ZILZALIAN KR   STOPWATCH RP SR   MCLARKE MR   RICHARD WESTWOOD RR   TOTALS TR PRETTY CRYSTAL 130   PORTA FORTUNA 116   PORTA FORTUNA 91   FALLEN ANGEL 89   PRETTY CRYSTAL 426 DANCE SEQUENCE 126   YLANG YLANG 113   YLANG YLANG 89   YLANG YLANG 86   DANCE SEQUENCE 414 PORTA FORTUNA 126   RAMATUELLE 112   REGAL JUBILEE 88   PORTA FORTUNA 83   PORTA FORTUNA 409 ROLICA 125   DARNATION 112   FALLEN ANGEL 88   DANCE SEQUENCE 80   ROLICA 405 REGAL JUBILEE 124   FALLEN ANGEL 110   SEE THE FIRE 88   CONTENT 78   REGAL JUBILEE 400 CINDERELLAS DREAM 123   SACRED ANGEL 109   SACRED ANGEL 87   CINDERELLAS DREAM 77   CINDERELLAS DREAM 396 CONTENT 123   SEE THE FIRE 109   STAR STYLE 86   SEE THE FIRE 77   CONTENT 395 FALLEN ANGEL 121   CINDERELLAS DREAM 102   DANCE SEQUENCE 84   PRETTY CRYSTAL 75   FALLEN ANGEL 382 RAMATUELLE 121   DANCE SEQUENCE 101   DARNATION 83   DARNATION 75   RAMATUELLE 380 SACRED ANGEL 120   REGAL JUBILEE 101   STAR MUSIC 81   REGAL JUBILEE 72   SACRED ANGEL 374 YLANG YLANG 118   CONTENT 96   PRETTY CRYSTAL 80   RAMATUELLE 72   YLANG YLANG 366 STAR MUSIC 117   STAR STYLE 96   RAMATUELLE 80   BRILLIANT 72   STAR MUSIC 365 TAMFANA 115   BRILLIANT 96   BRILLIANT 78   ROLICA 70   TAMFANA 359 STAR STYLE 111   STAR MUSIC 91   ROLICA 77   SACRED ANGEL 70   STAR STYLE 349 BRILLIANT 108   PRETTY CRYSTAL 90   ELMALKA 72   STAR STYLE 70   BRILLIANT 340 SEE THE FIRE 107   ROLICA 88   FINSCEAL LUCAS 72   STAR MUSIC 68   SEE THE FIRE 335 ELMALKA 106   FINSCEAL LUCAS 84   TAMFANA 70   TAMFANA 65   ELMALKA 325 DARNATION 104   ELMALKA 67   CINDERELLAS DREAM 68   ELMALKA 65   DARNATION 304 FINSCEAL LUCAS 104   TAMFANA 66   LUNAR ECLIPSE 60   FINSCEAL LUCAS 65   FINSCEAL LUCAS 295 LUNAR ECLIPSE 78   LUNAR ECLIPSE 33   CONTENT 33   LUNAR ECLIPSE 65   LUNAR ECLIPSE 209

I'd already replied to your PM with my email address before you posted in here. Let me know if it hasn't come through.

Does that mean you got the bloody file or that you sent the address ffs? 😁

Done.