Gary66

6-45 Chelmsford al marmar at 20/1 365 ew

6-45 Chelmsford al marmar at 20/1 365 ew

5.45 Chelmsford  Thebeautifulgame 40/1 bet365 EW 

1535 Lingfield 
Movethechains 16/1 betvictor
 

only by night 12.40 

purse prise 12.30 

Had a 2 pt L15 and ew acca on the Daily
Gone for a 1 pt ew on Letmelivemylife at 12/1 with Bet365 in the 7.15 at Chelm.  This is @richard-westwood's 2nd top-rated horse today. Been clipped into 9/1 with Betfred.  Maybe Bosh will win the race but Richard Hannon has such a poor strike rate I can't bring myself to back it
4 points were staked today

AW selection
Chelmsford 5.45
NINTH LIFE

Saint Segal 1:50 Lingfield (5/2 Bet365). Looked like beating Boothill at Ascot when falling at the last. Up 3lb for that but looked one to follow. Think he beats all the domestic based opposition, it's just the Irish one that's a bit of an unknown and could be a big danger getting 7lb.
 
Got a bit ragged and loses to the 12 year old First Flow 🤪 
 
1pt win 5/2 Bet365. (actually boosted to 11/4 at the moment).
 
P/l: +0.1pt

Fredo Banbou                                                    1 50 Ling/              1/20th of a pt win   6/1
Alaphilippe                                                         2 25 Ling/              1/40th of a pt ew    16/1
Dr Kananga                                                        3 35 Ling/              1/40th of a pt ew    25/1
Blade Runner                                                    3 35 Ling/               1/40th of a pt ew    28/1
Maysong                                                            6 45 Ling/               1/40th of a pt ew    28/1     -  3rd

715 chelm 
Bosh  8.7 9/2 
Letmeluvemylife  8.6 12/1 
Blind beggar. 8.4. 9/1 
Expert agent. 8.0 
Close between these three and they are a little clear ....not sure bling beggar wants 6f ...would probably be better over 5f but he still warrants respect ....I'll try  top two 4pt wins  ....and 24 x 20p tricasts all four 

With Fakenham falling foul to the elements we're left with Lingfield (subject to a early morning inspection) and one cracking race from Thurles on ITV on Sunday afternoon. Here's my thoughts on them -   Lingfield 1.15 The Lightning Novices’ Chase has been re-scheduled from Friday’s abandoned meeting and has attracted just five runners with only 7lb between the entire field at todays weights. All can be given a chance of sorts but its the Simon Munir & Isaac Souede owed Matata that catches my eye. He carries no penalties here (unlike three of his rivals) and has shown more than enough in two starts over fences to suggest he can win this. A easy 10L winner at Ffos Las in a novice’s handicap chase on his chasing debut in October, he stepped forward from that when runner up in a similar contest at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day giving weight to all and a reproduction o that effort should see him thereabouts.   MATATA 1 point win @ 11/4 William Hill   Thurles 1.35 The 2M 4F Grade 2 Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase features six runners, four of which hail from the Willie Mullins stable. Stable jockey Paul Townend rides double Ryanair Chase victor Allaho who has also won this race in 2021 and 2022. He’s got officially 8lb and upwards in hand here and will be hard to beat. He looked good at Clonmel on his re-appearance after a 561 day lay off and there was plenty to like about his third in the King George over Christmas. He should be winning this with maybe his stable mate Appreciate It following him home.   ALLAHO 1 point win @ EVS Betfred   Lingfield 1.50 A valuable 2M class 2 handicap chase is up next with six possibles lining up. Irish challenger The King Of Prs is chasing a four timer and although 2lb wrong at the weights has to be respected. Devon trainer Jane Williams has her string in fine form winning with three of her last 10 runners and can take this with her six year old gelding Saint Segal. He stepped forward from a creditable third to Boothill at Ascot on his re-appearance in early November when looking likely to beat that rival three weeks later at the same venue when a length ahead and keeping on when unfortunately falling at the last. Raised 3lb for that he looks sure to be involved in the finish under regular pilot David Noonan.   SAINT SEGAL 1 point win @ 5/2 bet365   Lingfield 2.25 A field of eleven line up for this class 2 2M 7F handicap hurdle which has a very open look about it. Dan Skelton’s Nurse Susan looks the most obvious but she has stamina to prove here and it maybe worth chancing bottom weight Classic Concorde who maybe the oldest in the field at eleven years of age but is in the form of his life winning five of his last six starts, with his only defeat coming on good to firm ground. His latest victory came at Chepstow on Welsh Grand National day when defeating J’Ai Froid by 2 1/2L with that one winning since at Warwick to frank the form (back in 3rd was the re-opposing Tanganika). The overnight forecast rain will help soften the ground and receiving weight from all looks a value each way play for Welsh trainer David Brace who has booked the promising 7lb conditional jockey Tom Broughton (15 wins from 64 career starts).   CLASSIC CONCORDE 1 point each way @ 11/1 William Hill 1/5 1234 CLASSIC CONCORDE & O’CONNELL (3.35) 1/4 point each way double     Lingfield 3.00 The feature race of the day is the £165,000 guaranteed 2M 6F Fitzdares Fleur De Lys Chase which will see six chasers go to post. My first thoughts were that I wanted to oppose the odds on favourite L’Homme Presse as his yard of Venetia Williams have fallen out of form having not had a winner 17 runs and 16 days and with the trip on the short side and the ground not soft enough but the more you look at the opposition its hard to think he will come undone. He’s won first time out three times in his career and with forecast rain overnight maybe the ground wont be too dry for him. I’ll sit and watch but with his only real danger Protektorat dropping in trip and carrying a 8lb penalty he should be winning.   Lingfield 3.35 A decent sized field of fourteen line up for the Fitzdares Surrey National Handicap Chase run over a stamina sapping 3M 5F. The race looks open with many holding chances. The jockey booking of Harry Cobden for the Sue Smith trained bottom weight O’Connell looks very interesting. This is Sue Smith’s first runner here in the last five years (possibly longer!) and having only his seventh chase start under rules (his tenth in total) may have more to come now stepping up to a marathon trip. He ran fourth over 3M 3 1/2F on Boxing Day in the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen (the re-opposing Animal was a neck ahead of him). He looks a value each way play with extra places.   O’CONNELL 1 point each way @ 11/2 bet365 1/5th 1234    

Well we didn't get the winner (4th) but the point i think was proven shorties out of frame first 3- 12/1 13/2 15/2 FC=£88 TC=£634

Have placed two L15's and ew Accas on the Daily = 4 points
3.45 Lin Smart Champion 1 pt ew at 8/1 with Skybet 4p
= 6 points for 8 races. 
Good luck all
 

Just one AW selection today
Lingfield 3.45
HAVANAZAM

A top course combo and a trainer with notable track record - Saturday's all-Weather.
Lingfield: top team take aim with Breeze
Charlie Johnston and Rossa Ryan have a 60 per cent strike-rate when teaming up at Lingfield and combine with the progressive Bohemian Breeze in the 1m4f handicap (1.25).
 
Lingfield: quickfire track hat-trick for Richards?
Lydia Richards has an eyecatching 23 per cent strike-rate on the all-weather at Lingfield in the last five seasons and enjoyed a double at the track at the start of the month.
 
Wolverhampton: take note of sole Evans runner
Worcestershire trainer James Evans has a good record in January in recent years. He has operated at a 20 per cent strike-rate (8-41) in the two-week period either side of today's date in the past five seasons, posting a £1 level-stake profit of +£25.
His sole runner is Gentle Fire, who is an intriguing contender in the 2m handicap (6.00) under in-form 7lb claimer Joe Leavy.
 
Wolverhampton: Brown bids for more course success
Gary Brown has a career strike-rate of 15 per cent at Wolverhampton but way exceeded that last year when operating at 36 per cent (5-14) at the all-weather track.
He was successful with Pyrrhic Dancer in the finale at the track on Friday and saddles two runners on Saturday with solid claims, starting with Graffiti in the 1m½f handicap (6.30). This dual-purpose five-year-old was a tidy winner over a furlong further at this track on his penultimate start under Taylor Fisher, who is back aboard. A slowly run race did not play to his strengths last time.
Hannah’s Return should be a leading player in the closing second division of the 6f classified stakes (8.30) under Fisher on the back of an encouraging third following a break from a wide draw over 5f here last month.
 
Best bet
Photosynthesis (12.50 Lingfield)
This three-year-old was a beaten favourite on his recent debut for Tom Clover but that form looks strong and he is an intriguing runner on his handicap debut in this 6f contest.
Photosynthesis was a maiden winner at Navan on his second of three starts in Ireland at two and there was encouragement to take from his third under a penalty for Clover at Newcastle last month.
The winner Sports Coach and runner-up El Bufalo have scored since, so a 3lb drop in the handicap could prove lenient for this colt.
A return to 6f is a plus and he is well drawn in stall two, while Clover has started the year in fine form with two winners, two seconds and four thirds from 11 runners.
 
 

Lydia richards is two from two at lingfield  this year and sends smith in the 15 -45  the horse is below his last winning mark and usually in good form at this time of year 25/1 Betfair seems value

On a day when I don’t have to take the grandkids the football, I’ll have an AW lucky 15 ew
2-35 alligator alley 15/2
3-10 dayzee 16/1
4-25 Plumstead 9/1
3-45 smith 12/1
good luck all

On a day when I don’t have to take the grandkids the football, I’ll have an AW lucky 15 ew
2-35 alligator alley 15/2
3-10 dayzee 16/1
4-25 Plumstead 9/1
3-45 smith 12/1
good luck all

Clonbury Bridge 14:30 Navan -  13/2 PP - 6 places
Fox Le Bel 15:42 Navan - 15/2 General - 4 places
2 x singles - each way double - extra places.

Wow ....horses are running like Blackpool donkeys at the moment ....just not turning up .....but the door has to swing back sooner or later ....  
12.15 ling 
Sandy paradise. 8.2 11/2 
Arctician.  8.2 9/1 
See you boy  7.7 
5pt Ew top 2 
 
2.00 ling 
Fantastic fox.  8.0 15/2 
Dragon icon. 7.7 
Al rufaa.   7.5 
5pt Ew fantastic 
Ew doubles all 3 

On a day when I don’t have to take the grandkids the football, I’ll have an AW lucky 15 ew
2-35 alligator alley 15/2
3-10 dayzee 16/1
4-25 Plumstead 9/1
3-45 smith 12/1
good luck all

Plastic Paddy                                             12.15 Ling/                       1/40th of a pt ew  50/1
One Night Stand                                        2 35 Ling/                        1/40th of a pt ew  18/1            - WON
Plantadream                                              2 00 Ling/                         1/40th of a pt ew  18/1
Smith                                                           3 45 Ling/                         1/40th of a pt ew  16/1
Out Of The Stars                                       12 50 Ling/                       1/40 th of a pt win 44/1
Pride Of Nepal                                            1 25 Ling/                        1/40th of a pt ew   38/1
Out Of The Stars                                        12 50 ling/                        1/40th of a pt place
 
 
 
P/L     + 176.10 pts

There are a few above  i agree with Sandy Paradise and Smith so i wont go into those but the 235 Ling is your typical "who's turn is it this week" handicap, in these races i think you might as well go for a "price", at 28/1 Lord Riddiford a listed winner in the past is as good a selection as any, it was behind Bergerac LTO and has 3 1/4L (slowly away) to find with that one and is 6LBS better off this time another advantage, Bergerac has not won over CD the Lord has. You can make an argument for any of these so why not take a chance? I also think this is the type of race that is worth a small RFC if you get really lucky its a big return as long as you keep away from the shorties either way its an interesting race.

Plumette