Gary66

Temptationinmilan 12/1 Coral - 14:15 Musselburgh - 4 places
 Collingham 16/1 Coral - 14:50 Musselburgh - 4 places
2 x singles - each way double

Interesting stuff. Some top of the head thoughts to stop them cluttering up my head!
Are they that much lower in terms of overround added per runner? Obviously they're a lot lower in total if you compare a football match to a 20 runner handicap but what would a 3 runner race look like? You're only trying to win on one selection so you're only trying to beat the margin added to that runner. Worth bearing in mind before you desert a sport you know more about, if you can use your existing data to find runners with a decent AE.
It surprises me that they were apparently betting to such a low overround at one point. Must've been seriously chasing business of so. But then, as we know, they're happy to price badly and chop off winners.
It reassures me from a logical point of view that, given a decent data sample, you wouldn't have made a profit blindly backing any of the 3 outcomes. Maybe it surprises me that home win looks best and draw looks worst as I'd have thought that home teams were more popular and would have most margin added to them while most punters ignore the draw so you might have expected least margin to be added there. But then, if business is being chased, maybe there's an element of wanting to be offering an attractive price about the outcome punters want to back. But then again, it's just one league and if you did the same thing for several divisions you might get a truer and slightly different picture! 
That chimes a bit more with my original preconception of more margin being added to the favourite. I'm not sure there's much value in considering the option of the middle odds; sometimes it will be the draw and sometimes the outsider.
Now you're getting into the territory of the sample size seeming to be quite decent but being too small to be of any real relevance. It would be a shock if every team closely plotted to the overall numbers, they're going to be all over the shop. I think you'd put yourself away by relying on those figures too much to make decisions on individual matches. Some teams will have just had freaky seasons or periods where they were underrated or overrated by the markets. I think what you're seeing there is expected variance and too much randomness for it to help you bet on individual games.

Burnley +1.5AH is a good bet according to my model too. See other thread.

A rare visitor to these shores and not sure if this is the right forum. I very rarely bet on the football, horse racing is my bag, but I have been offered various price boosts on BETMGM and football seems the best bet due to the lower overrounds.
As a result I have delved into the last 15 years stats for the premier league. All odds are based on BET365 prices Friday afternoon for weekend matches and Tuesday afternoon for midweek matches.
Overall the overround is 1.043 although it has increased from 1.026 in 2014 to 1.054 in 2023.
The ROI is -4.7%. The optimum bet is the home win with a loss of 1.2%. The draw is a loss of 6.8% and the away win is 5.9%.
Outsiders have the best record with a loss of 0.6%, the favourite is a loss of 2.9% and the middle odds is a loss of 9.9%.
Some statistics by teams 
Home win top 5          
Home win bottom 5   
Away win top 5            
Away win bottom 5     
Home draw top 5        
Home draw bottom 5 
Away draw top 5          
Away draw bottom 5   
Not sure how relevant these stats are but gives me a bit of a steer.
The standout bet tomorrow would be Burnley to beat Liverpool at 15/2 (Burnley +20, Liverpool -19).
 
 
 
 
 

Newport County vs Swindon Town
2024-02-03T13:45+01:00
 
Newport County
Doubtful: -
Out (injuries/other): Kyle Jameson (3/0 d), Offrande Zanzala (0/0 f), Declan Drysdale (9/0 d), Josh Seberry (9/0 d)
Suspended: -
 
Swindon Town
Doubtful: -
Out (injuries/other): -
Suspended: -
 
Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more than 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com
 
Interesting facts based only on statistics Newport County scored at least one goal in 93% of home games. 80% chance that both Newport County and Swindon Town will score in this game. 42% chance that both Newport County and Swindon Town will score in second-half. 65% chance that both team will score and goal count will be over 2.5 goals. 87% chance that there will be more than 1 goal in this game. 72% chance that there will be more than 2 goals in this game. 52% chance that there will be more than 3 goals in this game. 79% chance that there will be at least 1 goal in the first-half.

300 leop
Fine margin. 8.9 4/1 
Ailine  8.4 55.0 
Canal end 8.1 
5pt wins top 2 

Stat 1 leaves GUSTAVIAN (22/1), WONDERWALL (16/1), HERMINO AA (25/1) and GOOD LUCK CHARM (10/1)
Stat 2 removes HERMINO AA
Stat 3 leaves GOOD LUCK CHARM (also passes stat 4)
 

Munfords Magic                                               1 25 San/          1/40th of a pt ew   30/1
Intellotto                                                             1 50 Lep/          1/40th of a pt ew   9/1
Max Flamingo                                                    3 00 Lep/           1/40th of a pt ew  80/1
Dubrovnic Harry                                                3 10 San/          1/40th of a pt ew  25/1    - 3rd
Moroder                                                              3 45 San/          1/40th of a pt ew  22/1
Zanndabad                                                          2 50 Mus/         1/40th of a pt ew  10/1   - 2nd
Superbolt                                                            4 35 Mus/          1/20th of a pt win  5/1

ITV are showing a staggering twenty live races over the weekend and here's part one of my look at the action.
Sandown 1.25 The days terrestrial action kicks off with a 2M 4F novices’ handicap hurdle in which Nicky Henderson’s top weight Jingko Blue, who has entries in two of the novice hurdles at Cheltenham, appeals despite a steadier of twelve stone on his handicap debut. Not seen since beating Masaccio at Newbury in early December he’ll need to be winning this well to be taking up either of those fancy entries and with James Bowen in the plate should be hard to beat. One horse who’s worth a saver on is the Lucy Wadham trained Zain Nights who looks well treated on his flat form.   JINGKO BLUE 1 point win @ 2/1 BetVictor ZAIN NIGHTS 1/2 point each way @ 11/1 bet365 1/5th 123   Musselburgh 1.40 Six go to post for this 2m 4 1/2F class 3 novices’ handicap chase. It has an open look about it with each of the sextet holding a chance of sorts. The one that catches my eye is the Irish trained Jackpot de Choisel. John C McConnell’s gelding is the youngest in the field and this will only be his seventh career start under rules having won three of them. He was well backed when winning over course and distance on his fencing debut at the beginning of the year and just a 5lb rise in the weights may not be enough to stop him from running a big race here with the consistent General Officer looking the biggest threat.   JACKPOT DE CHOISEL 1 point win @ 9/2 BetVictor   Sandown 2.00 Just five go to post for this 1M 7 1/2F class 2 handicap chase which may chiefly concern Harry Fry’s In Excelsis Deo and Jane Williams’s top weight Saint Segal. Slight preference is for the latter who would of won at Ascot from Boothill but for a last fence tumble in November. He kept on to chase home First Flow at Lingfield a fortnight ago and off of the same mark can gain a richly deserved first victory of the season under David Noonan.   SAINT SEGAL 1 point win @ 9/4 bet365   Musselburgh 2.15 The day’s feature race at the Scottish track is the class 2 bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase run over a stamina sapping 3M 7 1/2F. A lot of the thirteen strong field are attempting this trip for the first time so have stamina to prove but one horse who will adore the distance is the Alastair Ralph runner Magna Sam who won this very race last year by just over 4L and will be ridden once again by Alex Edwards. He followed that up with a creditable fifth in the Scottish National and appears to have been laid out for this defence of his crown. He no doubt needed his only run this season back in November here over 2M 7 1/2F and a helpful 2lb drop for that is a bonus. With additional places he’s a strong each way fancy.   MAGNA SAM 1 point each way @ 13/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Sandown 2.35 The day’s feature at the Esher track is the Grade 1 Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase run over a distance of 2M 4F. Officially there’s only 5lb between the five runners but the favourite Hermes Allen will be hard to beat. He looked a smart prospect when winning at Newbury on his fencing debut in December and certainly wasn’t disgraced when stepping up in trip in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day when runner up the very smart French raider Il Est Francais, going down by 11L but clear from the rest. Dropping back to this intermediate trip looks ideal and with jockey Harry Cobden in such fine form attempting to chase down Sean Bowen in the jockeys championship in the saddle can take this.   HERMES ALLEN 2 points win @ 6/4 888Sport   Musselburgh 2.50 A decent class 2 handicap hurdle run over 1M 7 1/2F is next up with thirteen going to post. The race has a very open look about it with several holding claims. Five year old Your Honour, trained in Ireland by J A Nash comes here having won a listed handicap hurdle at Limerick over Christmas having been pushed out to win by 5 1/2L. He’s not been done any favours by the British handicapper who’s asked him to carry a stone more in the weights but in a wide open race appeals each way with the useful Gavin Brouder claiming a valuable 3lb.   YOUR HONOUR 1 point each way @ 11/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Leopardstown 3.00 A big field, 3M 104 yard listed handicap hurdle has attracted 24 runners in which you’ll sure to need some luck in running. County Kildare handler Barry O’Connell will be excited about his Marine Nationale’s appearance on Sunday but has a solid each way chance here with his seven year old mare Nine Graces. She’s run two pleasing runs in similar handicaps this season most notably last time when finishing third (beaten just under a length) to the re-opposing Garth Chuil and can meet her old rival on 4lb better terms which may be enough to turn the tables. Willie Mullins’s Fine Margin looks a danger to all but with extra places its the Michael O’Sullivan ridden mare that takes my eye.   NINE GRACES 1 point each way @ 12/1 Coral 1/5th 12345   Sandown 3.10 A decent sized field of fifteen line up for this valuable 2M 7 1/2F handicap hurdle. Quite a few have decent chances including the Jonjo O’Neill trained Saint Davy who looked good when winning at Ludlow at the turn of the year and Harry Derham’s Scamallach Liath who’s Ascot second to Top Cloud has been boosted since by the subsequent victories of the 3rd and 5th. It’s hard to split the pair so it’s worth dutching the pair against the field.   SAINT DAVY 1 point win @ 10/1 bet365 SCAMALLACH LIATH 1 point win @ 10/1 bet365     Leopardstown 3.35 Just the four line up for the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup run over a distance of 3M 70 yards in which it will be a shock if the race doesn’t develop into a match between Martin Brassil’s Fastorslow and Willie Mullins’s Galopin Des Champs. The former has beaten Galopin Des Champs on his last two starts and a case can obviously be made for him but the way that the latter won the Savills Chase over Christmas he should be winning here all be it at a cramped odds.   Sandown 3.45 The day’s terrestrial action concludes with a ten runner 3M class 2 handicap chase. It looks another competitive contest although Nigel Twiston-Davies’s Kestrel Valley appeals towards the bottom of the weights. He’s won four of his last five starts with his latest success coming at Ludlow when making all to come home 20L to the good. The handicapper has responded by pushing him up another 7lb but he can still run well at an each way price.   KESTREL VALLEY 1 point each way @ 7/1 William Hill 1/5th 123    

Well done winners, and many thanks @MCLARKE

Well done to craig and all the other prize winners and big thanks to the man who marks the board 👏👏

Well done to craig and all the other prize winners and big thanks to the man who marks the board 👏👏

Well done CS 333. A perfect tactical campaign.

Current ratings .....
Call me lord. 9.0 20/1 
Bold endeavour. 9.0 16/1 
Goshen    8.7 20/1 
Fine margin. 8.3 8/1 
Monmiral.  7.9 
Ed keeper.  7.9 
I'll try and narrow it down when I get chance ....but top three look very good value currently 🤔
Edit .....a good prep race is a must so I'll omit Goshen and monmiral leaving 
Call me lord.   99
Bold endeavour. 96 
Fine margin.    101 
Ed keeper.  94 
That's best class ratings ......overall this more often than not goes  to a up and coming horse age 6 to 9 which goes against call my lord but I still think he's definate Ew material and good value .....most likely winners are fine margin or bold endeavour imo ...but ed keeper is a lively Ew danger 

Trends
Age – 6 of the last 8 winners were aged between 6 and 8
Price – 1 of the last 8 winners were favourites, 4/8 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 1 of the last 8 winners won on their last run before the Heroes Handicap Hurdle, 8/8 winners ran within the last 42 days
4/8 winners ran in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (Kempton) on their last run, 0 of the 4 won, 2 placed
Previous Course Form – 2/8 winners had at least 1 previous run at Sandown, 2/8 winners had at least 1 previous win at Sandown
Previous Distance Form – 6/8 winners had at least 1 previous run over 22-24 furlongs, 3/8 had at least 1 previous win over 22-24 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 8/8 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 7/8 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
Rating – 7/8 winners were rated 127 or higher
Graded Wins – 1/8 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 6/8 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 4/8 winners had at least 1 win that season
The 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2021 races were all cancelled due to adverse weather

15/16 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Had won over this trip before (hurdles)
12/16 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
12/16 – Aged 6 years-old
11/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/16 – Former flat horses
9/16 – Favourites placed in the top 4
9/16 – Carried 11-0 or less
8/16 – Rated between 120-130
3/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 - Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 6)
2/16 - Trained by Donald McCain (2 of the last 5)
4 of the last 7 winners were ridding by a claiming jockey
Collingham (11/2) won the race in 2023

5.25 Wolverhampton, Fieldsman, 8/1 Bet365.

AW selection
Wolverhampton 8.0
WHITE MIST

The Newest One 14/1 bet 365 - 14:40 Doncaster - 3 places
Erne River 14/1 bet 365 - 15:15 Doncaster - 6 places
2 x singles - each way double

Cheltenham 1.15 A decent thirteen runner Premier Handicap has attracted thirteen chasers over a trip of 2M 4F 127 yards with the race having a wide open look to it. Venetia Williams saddles a brace of runners and it’s the Charlie Deutsch ridden Victtorini who takes my eye. He’s won two handicap chases at Ascot this season over 3M rising just 8lb and may not be too inconvenienced by the drop back in trip. His latest victory has been boosted already by subsequent victories for the third and eighth since and with extra places looks decent each way value.   VICTTORINO 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Cheltenham 1.50 Six chasers line up for the latest renewal of the Grade 2, 3M 1 1/2F Paddy Power Cotswold Chase. Five of the six are carrying penalties and it’s a tightly knit contest where each of the sextet has a chance. Slight preference is for the Patrick Neville trained The Real Whacker who has an excellent record at the track, including a short head victory over Geri Colombe in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at the Festival last March. He showed plenty more than his re-appearance last time out in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day when fourth with the third Allaho winning since to frank the form. His regular rider Sam Twiston-Davies is back in the saddle and he can run well in a tight race.   THE REAL WHACKER 1 point win @ 9/2 bet365   Doncaster 2.05 A field of six line up for this Yorkshire Rose Mares Hurdle run over 2M 128 yards. Willie Mullins has sent over two from his Closutton stables in Ireland in the shape of Gala Marceau, ridden by Danny Mullins and Ashroe Diamond ridden by Paddy Mullins. With question marks over the rest of the field they may fight out the finish with preference for Gala Marceau who was not far off the top of the juvenile hurdle pile last season and if straight enough can take this.   GALA MARCEAU 1 point win @ 15/8 bet365   Cheltenham 2.25 The re-arranged Grade 1 Clarence House Chase has attracted five chasers although unfortunately not El Fabiolo who stays in Ireland for the Dublin Racing Festival next weekend. That surely leaves the path open for Jonbon to continue his winning run (he’s now won twelve of his 14 runs under rules). He’s rated 8lb and upwards better than his quartet of opponents and can take this en route to a clash with El Fabiolo at Cheltenham in March although he will be at unbackable odds today obviously.   Doncaster 2.40 Ten line up for the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett River Don Novices’ Hurdle run over 3m 84 yards. It may be between the Paul Nicholls trained Welcom To Castries and Kim Bailey’s Destroytheevidence with slight preference for the latter who has the best piece of form in his locker with his 1 1/4L second to the promising Shangagh Bob in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in December. A reproduction of that effort should see him go very close to taking this under David Bass for the team who struck with First Flow at Lingfield last weekend.   DESTROYTHEEVIDENCE 1 point win @ 4/1 BetVictor   Cheltenham 3.00 The Unibet Hurdle run over a distance of 2M 179 yards is up next with five hurdlers lining up. Last year’s top juvenile hurdler Lossiemouth is making her re-appearance having not been seen since winning at the Punchestown Festival last April. If she’s near enough ready she’ll be hard to beat with Paul Townend over to ride her. The other mare in the race, Love Envoi looks her biggest danger and any easing of the ground will be in her favour. A fit Lossiemouth should be winning this for master trainer Willie Mullins.   LOSSIEMOUTH 1 point win @ 5/6 William Hill   Doncaster 3.15 The day’s big handicap is the SBK Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase run over a trip of 3M. A near maximum field of eighteen have declared and the race, as one would expect, has a wide open look about it. My short list comprises of Emmet Mullins’s Sweet Will, Nick Kent’s Erne River and Christian Williams’s Cap Du Nord. Preference is for the latter who has been placed in this race, off of higher marks, the last three years. He, in typical Christian Williams style, has shown nothing this season but his mark has fallen to a mark 3lb lower than when beaten a length by Coopers Cross last year. Sure to have been aimed at this and sneaking in off bottom weight under Jack Tudor he looks the one to be with although I can’t resist a small each way saver with additional places on Nick Kent’s Erne River who bounced back to form over course and distance last time to bring his course figures to 1121.   CAP DU NORD 1 point each way @ 8/1 Betfred 1/5th 12345 ERNE RIVER 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 123456   Cheltenham 3.35 The McCoy Contractors Cleeve Hurdle is run over 3M and we have a seven strong field this year. He maybe the joint oldest in the field but Emma Lavelle’s Paisley Park has an excellent record in this race having finished third last year and winning it three times. He showed last time in in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot before Christmas that he’s lost none of his old zip when going down in a head bobbing finish to Crambo. He had both Dashel Drasher and Champ behind him that day and looks set to confirm the form and win this again at the age of twelve under Tom Bellamy.   PAISLEY PARK 1 point win @ 11/4 bet365  

I have 1 or 2 when I go racing which is midweek now , wouldn't go weekend racing anymore , too many morons .
Craven meeting next up , on the Wednesday , they'll only be 4/500 at Rowley Mile , perfect .

2.35 Chepstow  Valens Bruyee 50/1 bet365 EW 

8-00 Southwell  The bell conductor 14/1 hills ew

8-00 Southwell  The bell conductor 14/1 hills ew

Age – 9 of the last 11 winners were aged 8 or older
Price – 1 of the last 11 winners were favourites, 3/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 3 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before the Great Yorkshire Chase, 11/11 winners ran within the last 63 days
Previous Course Form – 7/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Doncaster, 3/11 winners had at least 1 previous win at Doncaster
Previous Distance Form – 9/11 winners had at least 5 previous runs over 23-25 furlongs, 7/11 had at least 2 previous wins over 23-25 furlongs
Previous Chase Form – 9/11 winners had at least 9 previous chase runs, 10/11 winners had at least 2 chase wins
Rating – 9/11 winners were rated 136 or higher
Graded Wins – 4/11 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 10/11 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 4/11 winners had at least 1 win that season