[Pick of the Day (by Professor MJ)]

The last 3 picks have been winners, hopefully the good run continues today!

RECORD:

Bets won = 15
Bets lost = 16
Profit = +1.89$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

Twins (at -250 or 1.40) vs Royals

This play meets the criteria of 2 betting systems, including "The Scoring Drought" betting angle:

"Suppose a team loses 2 straight games, while scoring 0-1-2 run(s) in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is greater than 2.50 (so you bet a home favorite)."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +26.99 units from 332 bets (ROI = 8.1%)

Since Kansas City has lots its past two games by scoring 0 and 1 run respectively (and they are indeed on the road with large odds), we are fading them.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[Pick of the Day (by Professor MJ)]

For the very first time I provided 2 picks of the day because I felt both were very strong plays. And both won! Good job Reds & Mets!!

RECORD:

Bets won = 14
Bets lost = 16
Profit = +0.54$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):

Padres (at +135 or 2.35) at Brewers

This play is based on the same betting angle as yesterday: "The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup" betting angle:

Since San Diego is undergoing a 6-game losing streak while Milwaukee is riding a 4-game winning streak, we are going against the grain by betting the "cold" team: the Padres!

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[Pick of the Day (by Professor MJ)]

3 hours ago, notanotherdonkey said:

Keep them selections coming.Good Luck

Both picks won, yesssss!

[Pick of the Day (by Professor MJ)]

RECORD:

Bets won = 12
Bets lost = 16
Profit = -1.57$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

I'm gonna do something special today by providing 2 picks instead of just one. They both meet the criteria of 3 betting systems at a time!!! This has proven to triple the ROI in 2019.

Reds (at +141 or 2.41) at Cubs
Mets (at -143 or 1.699) at Rockies

One of the betting angles recommending these picks is called "The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup":

"Bet a road team coming off a loss when facing a home team coming off 4+ straight wins."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +66.51 units from 993 bets (ROI = 6.7%)
In 2019: +14.24 units from 121 bets (ROI = 11.8%)

Since Cincinnati has lost its last game while the Cubs are riding a 5-game winning streak, we are betting the Reds.

Also, considering the Mets have lost their past two games while the Rockies are on a 4-game winning streak, we are betting New York.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[Pick of the Day (by Professor MJ)]

RECORD:

Bets won = 12
Bets lost = 15
Profit = -0.57$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

Reds (at ) at Cubs (+250 or 2.50)

This play meets the criteria of 3 betting systems at a time, including the most lucrative in 2019 called "The Hot Bats":

"Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while scoring 6+ runs in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing at home."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +47.56 units from 1140 bets (ROI = 4.2%)
In 2019: +33.64 units from 147 bets (ROI = 22.9%)

Since Chicago's last two games were both wins by scoring 16 and 14 runs respectively, we are fading them today.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[Pick of the Day (by Professor MJ)]

RECORD:

Bets won = 12
Bets lost = 14
Profit = +0.43$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

Padres (at +100 or 2.00) at Rockies

This play meets the criteria of 2 betting angles at a time. Under such circumstances, our ROI (Return On Investment) tripled in 2019 compared to the case where a pick met the criteria of a single betting strategy.

One of these two systems is called "The Pummeled Pitchers" betting angle:

"Bet the road team if it has lost... a) its past 2 games by allowing 9+ runs in each meeting; b) its past 3 games by allowing 7+ runs in each meeting (unless their money line is greater than 3.0); c) its past 4 games by allowing 6+ runs in each meeting."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +37.58 units from 253 bets (ROI = 14.9%)

Since San Diego is on the road and has lost its past two games by allowing 11 and 10 runs respectively, we are betting them this afternoon.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[Pick of the Day (by Professor MJ)]

We have won 4 of our past 5 picks of the day, let's keep it up!

RECORD:

Bets won = 12
Bets lost = 13
Profit = +1.43$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

Giants (at -215 or 1.465) vs Marlins

This pick is based on "The Scoring Drought" betting angle:

"Suppose a team loses 2 straight games, while scoring 0-1-2 run(s) in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is greater than 2.50 (so you bet a home favorite)."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +26.99 units from 332 bets (ROI = 8.1%)
In 2019: +2.72 units from 33 bets (ROI = 8.2%)

Since Miami has lost its past two games by scoring just 0 and 2 runs respectively, and they are fairly big road underdogs, we are betting against them.

Have a good Saturday!

Professor MJ

[Pick of the Day (by Professor MJ)]

It's Friday the 13th!!! Hopefully it won't bring us some bad luck.

RECORD:

Bets won = 11
Bets lost = 13
Profit = +0.63$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day is the strongest play by far since I've got 3 different betting angles pointing in their direction (odds from Pinnacle):

Dodgers (at -125 or 1.80) at Mets

This pick is based on "The Blowout Effect" (system #2):

"Suppose Team A beats Team B by 7+ runs. If Team A's next game is against Team C, bet Team C."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +20.39 units from 590 bets (ROI = 3.5%)
In 2019: -0.10 units from 61 bets (ROI = 1.8%)

Since the Mets crushed the D-Backs by a 10-run margin yesterday, we are betting against them today.

It is also based on the "Hot Teams Matchup" and "The Hot Bats" systems.

Enjoy your day!

Professor MJ

[Pick of the Day (by Professor MJ)]

Tough loss last night as the Mariners came back in the seventh, thanks to a 3-run Home run by Kyle Lewis.

 

RECORD:

Bets won = 10
Bets lost = 13
Profit = -0,80$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):

Rangers (at +143 or 2.43) vs Rays

This pick is based on "The Snapped Winning Streak" betting angle:

"Fade a road team whose winning streak of length 5+ was just snapped in their previous game (so you bet the HOME team)."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +22.06 units from 281 bets (ROI = 7.9%)
In 2019: -2.21 units from 27 bets

Since Tampa Bay got its 6-game winning streak snapped last night, we are betting against them today.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[NFL 2019/20]

WEEK #2

Written Wednesday September 11th, 2019 at 2 PM Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

PICK: Chicago Bears -2.5 at Denver Broncos (rated 4 stars)

The rest factor, which is critical in the NFL considering the physical nature of the game, is largely in favor of the Bears here. They are going to benefit from three additional days of rest after playing the Thursday Night game against the Packers last week, while the Broncos lose one day of preparation since they played last Monday. In other words, the Bears will have 4 more days than the Broncos to heal and to game plan for their upcoming meeting. That is huge!

Chicago is also coming off a very disappointing home opener where they were repeatedly booed by their home crowd. Playing on the road will relieve some stress; it might actually be a good thing.

Last week I told you about a website called FootballGuys.com that is a goldmine of information. Prior to last week, they were ranking Oakland’s defense 32nd (dead last!). The Broncos only managed to score 16 points against them, so how can they expect to generate some offense against the stout Bears defense? They are in for a long day.

Meanwhile, Chicago’s offense struggled big time against Green Bay. They probably won’t score a boatload of points, but I feel they are going to be more focused on details and will be able to do enough to win this game.

Which team has the best defense? Chicago. Which team has the best offense? Chicago. With a more rested team that I also expect to be very hungry, to me the pick is simple here: Chicago!

LEAN: Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 vs San Francisco 49ers

The Bengals lost a game they should have won in a very tough environment. Indeed, they racked up 429 totals yards versus just 233 for the Seahawks. They made 22 first downs compared to just 12 for Seattle. However, 3 lost fumbles cost them the game.

Running back Joe Mixon left the game with an ankle injury, but he should be back this week. Andy Dalton looked very sharp with over 400 passing yards despite missing his number one receiver, A.J. Green. John Ross was fantastic with 7 receptions for 158 yards and a couple of TDs.

Cincy’s defense was supposed to be bad in 2019, but they looked good last week. They pressured Russell Wilson pretty often. Was it just a flash in the pan? We’ll find out soon.

Meanwhile, the Niners won 31-17 in Tampa Bay even though the stats were pretty even. Obviously, the four takeaways helped secure the win.

Jimmy Garoppolo raised many question marks during preseason and he did not necessarily impress in Tampa. He missed several open receivers throughout the game.

San Francisco’s running game did okay, but wasn’t great either. They also lost one of their starters, Tevin Coleman. The former Falcon will be out several weeks with a high-ankle sprain.

Considering the game starts at 1 PM Eastern Time, it will feel like 10 AM to 49ers players since they come from the West Coast. That’s another obstacle for them. Also, playing on the road against a non-conference opponent makes it more difficult to find extra motivation (as opposed to the home team that necessarily has the motivation to do well in front of their home crowd, no matter the opposing team).

Have a great football weekend!

Professor MJ
 

[Pick of the Day (by Professor MJ)]

Good job Rockies for a nice 2-1 upset win against the Cards yesterday, thanks to a 482-foot two-run homer by Nolan Arenado! We're now back in the black!

RECORD:

Bets won = 10
Bets lost = 12
Profit = +0.20 $ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):

Reds (at -143 or 1.70) at Mariners

This pick is based on "The Snapped Losing Streak" betting angle #2:

"Fade a team whose losing streak of length 4+ was just snapped in their previous game. Bet only if they are at home, facing the same opponent and their money line is greater than 1.50."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +27.36 units from 388 bets (ROI = 7.1%)
In 2019: +9.79 units from 27 bets (ROI = 36.3%)

Since Seattle just snapped their 6-game losing skid yesterday against those same Reds and they are playing at home, we are betting Cincy.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[Pick of the Day (by Professor MJ)]

RECORD:

Bets won = 9
Bets lost = 12
Profit = -$1.11 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

Rockies (at +131 or 2.31) vs Cards

This pick is based on "The Stingy Pitchers" betting angle:

"Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while allowing just 0 or 1 run in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is 2.50 or less."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +26.54 units from 375 bets (ROI = 7.1%)
In 2019: -4.63 units from 20 bets

Since St. Louis has won its previous two meetings by 2-0 and 10-1 scores, we are betting against them.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[Pick of the Day (by Professor MJ)]

RECORD:

Bets won = 8
Bets lost = 12
Profit = -$1.56 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):

Mets (at -221 or 1.452) vs Diamondbacks

This pick is based on "The Snapped Winning Streak" betting angle:

"Fade a road team whose winning streak of length 5+ was just snapped in their previous game (so you bet the HOME team)."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +22.06 units from 281 bets (ROI = 7.9%)
In 2019: -2.21 units from 27 bets

Since Arizona's five-game winning streak was just snapped yesterday, we are fading them today.

Good Monday all!

Professor MJ
 

[Pick of the Day (by Professor MJ)]

Dammit, we are now in the red following a three-game losing skid!

RECORD:

Bets won = 8
Bets lost = 11
Profit = -$0.56 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):

Tigers (at +264 or 3.64) at A's

This pick is based on "The Comeback" betting angle:

"Suppose Team A comes back from a deficit of 4+ runs against Team B. If they meet again the next day, bet Team A if their money line is greater than 1.5714 (-175 in American format)."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +38.13 units from 344 bets (ROI = 11.1%)

Since Detroit overcame a four-run deficit yesterday and their money line today is indeed much greater than 1.5714, we are betting them. It's a long shot, but let's see how it plays out!

Have a good Saturday!

Professor MJ
 

[Pick of the Day (by Professor MJ)]

The last two picks of the day turned out to be losers; we are still hanging on to some slight winnings thus far!

RECORD:

Bets won = 8
Bets lost = 10
Profit = +$0.44 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9:30 AM Eastern Time):

Reds (at +106 or 2.06) vs D-Backs

This pick is based on "The Stingy Pitchers" betting angle:

"Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while allowing just 0 or 1 run in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is 2.50 or less."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +26.54 units from 375 bets (ROI = 7.1%)
In 2019: -$4.63 units from 20 bets (small sample size!!)

Since Arizona's past two games both ended with a win while allowing just one run in each meeting (4-1 and 2-1 victories), we are betting against them.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[Pick of the Day (by Professor MJ)]

Too bad the Nationals lost yesterday, but we are still showing a profit thus far. Let's get back on our feet quickly!

RECORD:

• Bets won = 8
• Bets lost = 9
• Profit = +$1.44 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9:30am Eastern Time):

Nationals (at -108 or 1.926) at Braves

The Nationals pick is based on 3 different betting systems.

As of August 28, 2019:

• Picks based on just one betting system: +$23.69 over 531 bets (ROI = 4.5%)
• Picks based on 2+ betting systems: +$18.64 over 110 bets (ROI = 16.9%)

In other words, the ROI more than triples when many betting angles are pointing in the same direction.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[NFL 2019/20]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

My opening salvo was to stick the tenner allowed on Hill's 4/1 for a 65+ yard field goal to be made this season. Would be a new record but seems a big enough price to me for a season long interest.

Interesting. The odds are indeed a bit high. Thanks for pointing that out!

[NFL 2019/20]

WEEK #1

Written Wednesday September 4^th, 2019 at 2 PM Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs (rated 3 stars)

Lots of people are in the Chiefs bandwagon. If you look at their roster, they are indeed very good. Patrick Mahomes is super exciting to watch. And so are their speedy receivers, namely Tyreek Hill. I’m also looking forward to seeing their new toy, rookie Mecole Hardman. I’ve heard good reports from camp about him.

Nobody is underestimating Kansas City. Everybody expects them to be great. But I believe many people are underestimating Jacksonville. The general public remembers their dreadful 2018 season where they finished 5-11. But don’t forget they went 10-6 the year before, thanks to a suffocating defense. They still have many players from that edition in their roster.

The QB situation has obviously improved with the arrival of Nick Foles, a very smart guy. Running back Leonard Fournette is also back after missing half the season, and battling through injuries when he was on the field. He says he is “100 percent better.”

Jacksonville will also be looking to avenge a 30-14 loss in Kansas City last season.

I subscribed to the weekly newsletter sent by the Sports Interaction sportsbook. In this week’s letter that I just received, they mention getting 90% of the action on the Chiefs versus just 10% on the Jags. As a contrarian, I love it!

LEAN: Detroit Lions -2.5 at Arizona Cardinals

The Kyler Murray era is about to begin in Arizona! The fans should be excited, but there might be some growing pains, especially early in the season. Give him some time to adjust to the NFL speed. On the other side, you’ve got an experience signal caller with Matthew Stafford, who is entering his 11th season in the league.

The betting public tends to focus too much on each team’s offensive weapons; they don’t take the defense and the offensive line into account enough, in my humble opinion. That being said, footballguys.com is a great website that has a lot of valuable information on the NFL. I trust them a lot, as I have used them many times when doing fantasy football. They are ranking Arizona’s defense 26th in the league, while their offensive line gets the 30th rank. Ouch.

Not only do the Cards have a new QB, but they also have a rookie head coach, Kliff Kingsbury. He will also need time to feel more comfortable with his new duties.

Finally, based on odds for the number of regular season wins, the Lions are expected to get about 6.5 victories this year compared to 5.0 for the Cards. And that’s despite Detroit playing in a tougher division.

Best of luck with your plays, fellows!

Professor MJ

[Pick of the Day (by Professor MJ)]

Nice upset win by the Marlins in Pittsburgh last night!

Miguel Rojas homered to tie the game up when Miami was down to its final out.

Then, Garrett Cooper delivered the game-winning homerun in extra innings. Good job!

RECORD:

Bets won = 8
Bets lost = 8
Profit = +$2.44 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Despite a .500 record, we have netted some winnings thanks to many underdogs hitting.

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):

Nationals (at -120 or 1.833) vs Mets

This pick is based on "The Comeback" betting angle:

"Suppose Team A comes back from a deficit of 4+ runs against Team B. If they meet again the next day, bet Team A if their money line is greater than 1.5714 (-175 in American format)."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +38.13 units from 344 bets (ROI = 11.1%)
In 2019 (not good thus far, but small sample size): -5.41 units from 38 bets

Since Washington overcame a 6-run deficit in the 9th inning yesterday, we are betting them.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[Pick of the Day (by Professor MJ)]

4 hours ago, notanotherdonkey said:

Well done,Keep up the good work as you will always get losing runs but as long as more winning runs the better.Keep the faith.Good Luck.

Thanks buddy, you are right, losing streaks are inevitable! Good bettors learn to go through them and keep grinding, until the winning streaks are back!

[Pick of the Day (by Professor MJ)]

Nice hit with the Mets last night. Let's keep rolling!

RECORD:

Bets won = 7
Bets lost = 8
Profit = +$0.90 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):

Marlins (at +154 or 2.54) at Pirates

This is definitely the most promising pick for today because it meets the criteria of 4 different betting systems.

One of them is "The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup" betting angle.

"Bet a road team coming off a loss when facing a home team coming off 4+ straight wins."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +66.51 units from 993 bets (ROI = 6.7%)
In 2019: +7.07 units from 103 bets (ROI = 6.9%)

Since Miami is undergoing a 3-game losing streak while Pittsburgh is riding a 4-game winning streak, we are betting the Marlins (according to the strategy described above).

Have a great day!

Professor MJ

[Pick of the Day (by Professor MJ)]

We gotta stop this 3-game losing streak NOW!

RECORD:

Bets won = 6
Bets lost = 8
Profit = -$0.03 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):

Mets (at -108 or 1.926) at Nationals

This pick is based on "The Hot Teams Matchup" betting angle #1:

"Bet a road team coming off a win when facing a home team coming off 4+ straight wins."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +10.57 units from 163 bets (ROI = 6.5%)
In 2019: +34.82 units from 136 bets (ROI = 25.6%)

Since Washington won its past two meetings by 9-3 and 7-0 scores, we are betting against them.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[Pick of the Day (by Professor MJ)]

After riding a 5-game winning streak, we have lost our past 2. Let's get back on the winning track!

RECORD:

Bets won = 6
Bets lost = 7
Profit = +$0.97 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):

White Sox (at +132 or 2.32) at Braves

This pick is based on "The Pummeled Pitchers" betting angle:

"Bet the road team if it has lost... a) its past 2 games by allowing 9+ runs in each meeting; b) its past 3 games by allowing 7+ runs in each meeting (unless their money line is greater than 3.0); c) its past 4 games by allowing 6+ runs in each meeting."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +37.58 units from 253 bets (ROI = 14.9%)
In 2019: -4.26 units from 42 bets

Since the White Sox have lost their past 2 games while allowing 11 and 10 runs respectively in those meetings, we are betting them to rebound in Atlanta. They also meet the criteria for betting based on their past 3 or 4 games.

NOTE: The White Sox also satisfy the betting angle called "The Hot Bats", which has been the most lucrative in 2019. The system plays have done even better when more than one system suggested betting a specific team (a ROI of 10%+ so far).

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[Pick of the Day (by Professor MJ)]

All good things must come to an end, as our 5-game winning streak was halted yesterday.

RECORD:

Bets won = 6
Bets lost = 6
Profit = +$1.97 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 9am Eastern Time):

White Sox (at +183 or 2.83) at Braves

This pick is based on "The Hot Bats" betting angle #1:

"Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while scoring 6+ runs in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing at home."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +47.56 units from 1140 bets (ROI = 4.2%)
In 2019: +34.82 units from 136 bets (ROI = 25.6%)

Since the Braves has won their past two games by scoring 10 and 9 runs respectively, we are betting the White Sox.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[Pick of the Day (by Professor MJ)]

Oh. My. God!

We have won our past 5 bets, including two HUGE underdogs (yesterday's Rays at +209 and the Orioles at +288 three days ago).

I guess it's fair to say we are ON FIRE!!!

RECORD:

• Bets won = 6
• Bets lost = 5
• Profit = +$2.97 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle at 11am Eastern Time):

Mariners (at +101 or 2.01) at Rangers

This pick is based on "The Big Upset" betting angle #1:

"Suppose Team A upsets Team B with odds greater than 2.50. If they meet again the next day, bet Team A if its money line is 2.25 or less."

PERFORMANCE:

• Over 7 years: +37.79 units from 261 bets (ROI = 14.5%)
• In 2019: +2.42 units from 35 bets (ROI = 6.9%)

Since Seattle upset those same Rangers last night despite 2.69 odds and because today's odds are indeed lower than 2.25, we are betting the Mariners.

Have a great Labor Day weekend!

Professor MJ