ProfessorMJ
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Posts posted by ProfessorMJ
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WEEK #7
Written Wednesday October 16th, 2019 at 3 PM Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
PICK: Miami Dolphins +17 at Buffalo Bills (rated 1 star)
The Dolphins are 1-4 against the spread this season, while the Bills are 4-1 ATS. Buffalo is also coming off its bye week. And you know I like the Bills after betting $10,000 on them to win at least 7 games this year. So why the heck am I picking Miami, then?
The main reason is this is a huge spread to cover for a team whose offense is not clicking yet. The Bills are scoring an average of 18 points per game. Suppose the Dolphins score just 10 points this weekend, this means Buffalo must score at least 28 points to beat the spread. It won’t be easy and I am betting this event has less than a 50% chance of happening.
I am aware that Miami has allowed an average of 36 points per game. But the Redskins also have a struggling offense and they only scored 17 in Miami last week. This is a divisional game and I expect the Dolphins to give a good fight and keep it close.
Sure, the Bills will be well-rested; they needed it after many players got hurt when they beat the Titans, including center Mitch Morse and linebacker Matt Milano. However, Miami is coming off three straight weeks where they stayed at home, including their bye week a couple of weeks ago.
After claiming Josh Rosen would be the starting quarterback for the rest of the year, head coach Brian Flores announced Ryan Fitzpatrick would get the start in Buffalo. The news just broke an hour before I posted this article. From a betting perspective, I like it because I do think Fitzpatrick gives the Dolphins a better chance of winning.
Bills win a surprisingly tight game.
LEAN #1: Houston Texans +1 at Indianapolis Colts
If you like this play, I recommend placing your bet early because I wouldn’t be surprised if Houston becomes the favorite by Sunday.
There have been several occasions this year where my betting angles recommended betting a team, but my own analysis wanted to bet their opponent. In those cases, I stayed away from the game. And in almost all instances, I should have picked the team I wanted to bet based on my own judgment.
This time, I’m gonna do it. The Colts have an edge based on rest since they are coming off their bye week, and it will also be their fourth game at home out of the past five weeks (by counting the bye week as a “home game”).
Normally, I would have tend to avoid the Texans since they might letdown after upsetting the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
But I’m going to go with my gut and bet Houston. For every game, I try to assess a “fair” line before looking at the actual spread. In this case, I thought the Texans would be 2.5 or 3-point favorites. I was stunned they were slight underdogs.
I firmly believe they will go on a great run and be Super Bowl contenders, especially in a weak AFC conference.
The Texans are 4-2, but could easily be 5-1. Remember the Week #1 Monday Night game where they were defeated 30-28 in New Orleans on a 58-yard field goal as time expired. And their only other loss was a 16-10 stinker against Carolina. But the Panthers don’t look so bad now after winning their past four matchups.
Houston also faced tougher competition. Their opponents hold an 18-18 record, while Indy’s opponents are 12-17. The Colts’ largest win occurred by a 6-point margin.
Jacoby Brissett has done a good job thus far, but I trust Deshaun Watson a lot more. Houston wins and gets additional breathing room as AFC South division leaders.
LEAN #2: Washington Redskins +10 vs San Francisco 49ers
This is the makeup for a letdown game by the Niners. They are all excited from making a big statement against the Rams and it will be easy to look past the lowly Redskins.
I may be the only person in my camp, but I think Case Keenum is not that bad. I’m not saying he is a great quarterback, but he can do some good things. Along with rookie Terry McLaurin, they can put some points on the board.
San Francisco will also be traveling through 3 time zones to play a 1 PM Eastern Time game.
And don’t forget the Niners will be missing two key offensive linemen: Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey.
Overall, the 49ers faced very weak teams, whose combined record this season is just 9-21.
I like the Skins to keep it a 10-point game or less.
LEAN #3: Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Denver Broncos
It looked like Kansas City was going to cruise easily to a division title, especially with the Chargers crashing down. But hold on a second! The Chiefs are now going through a slump themselves, with the Raiders now breathing down their neck.
The Chiefs did not cover the spread in each of their past four games. Meanwhile, the Broncos have beaten the spread on two straight occasions. Will the trend continue or not? I say: no!
The Chiefs lost their last two games, both at home. It might be a good thing to go on the road, where there won’t be as much pressure to do well. Maybe K.C. is trying to do too much. Playing in a tough environment like Denver, they’ll focus on executing things well and not trying to be too fancy.
If you’ve been following me for a while, you know I like betting elite teams following a straight up loss. Not only do the Chiefs meet those criteria, but this angle seems to do even better on “focus” games, which includes playing on Thursday Night Football on a non-standard practice week.
The Chiefs are 4-2 despite facing good teams. If you remove the games against the Chiefs, their opponents hold a 16-10-1 record. As a comparison, Denver’s opponents are posting a 13-15 record (after removing matchups versus the Broncos).
Denver is coming off a nice shutout performance against the Titans. They’ll realize quickly that Kansas City has much more firepower on offense, though.
Sammy Watkins has a fairly good chance of suiting up this Thursday. However, Eric Fisher is still out and Cam Erving is questionable. If he can’t go, K.C. would have to call their third-string left tackle. They are also thin on the defensive line and have a couple of guys whose status is uncertain right now.
There are a couple of things that prevent me from making it an official pick. First, the revenge factor. Denver lost both meetings in 2018 by 6 and 7-point margins. Also, the Broncos will be playing a third game at home out of their past four matches.
Let’s make some $$$$$$$$ this week!
Professor MJ
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We came close to pulling off a second straight upset, but the Coyotes lost in overtime in Colorado in our last pick.
RECORD:
Bets won = 1
Bets lost = 1
Profit = +$0.05 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Detroit Red Wings (at +130 or 2.30) at Vancouver Canucks
Based on "The Stingy Goalies" betting angle, which goes like this:
Suppose a team has allowed 3 goals or less in each of its past three games (not necessarily wins). Fade that team if they are now playing at home with odds < 2.25 (i.e. +125 in American format). The latter condition ensures we are avoiding betting big&moderate favorites.
That being said, the Canucks have allowed 2, 2 and 3 goals in each of their three most recent matchups. They are indeed at home with a money line smaller than 2.25 so we are betting AGAINST them tonight.
Good luck with your plays, sports investors!
Professor MJ
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We got off to a good start with the Sharks upsetting Chicago! Let's keep it up!
RECORD:
Bets won = 1
Bets lost = 0
Profit = +$1.05 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Coyotes (at +137 or 2.37) at Avalanche
Have a good Saturday!
Professor MJ
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4 hours ago, notanotherdonkey said:
Thank you Timmy.Well done the Professor a great winning start.What a welcome back winner.
Great start indeed! But it's a long season, so let's keep it up!
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29 minutes ago, notanotherdonkey said:
Nice to see you back Professor.Could you put the full team name down please if you do not mind.Thanks.Good Luck
You mean with the city as well?
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On 10/6/2019 at 6:15 AM, CSanders22 said:
I post my predictions on many websites, including my own.
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Hello hockey fans!
I'm a statistics university professor and I love to help fellow sports investors grow their bankroll!
I have developed the following 4 betting systems (more to come in the very near future), which are all in accodance with my contrarian approach so I really trust them a lot:
- The Scoring Drought: +90.53 units over 1656 bets.
- The Sloppy Defense: +27.64 units over 267 bets.
- The Hot Scorers: +45.08 units over 332 bets.
- The Stingy Goalies: +94.10 units over 2198 bets.
(the above numbers were obtained via my dataset on 9 seasons)
TOTAL:
Profit = +257.35 units over 4453 bets (a ROI of +5.8%)Since the 2012-2013 season was shortened to 48 games, the data correspond to 8.6 seasons.
You can therefore expect to earn 29.92 units (257.35 / 8.6) over 518 bets (4453 / 8.6) throughout a full season.
If your average bet is $100, your expected winnings are $2,992.
In this thread, I'm going to present one pick on Tuesdays and Thursdays (sometimes Saturdays? We'll see how it goes).
We'll keep track of the record. Sounds good?
Let's get the party started!
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Sharks (at +105 or 2.05) at Blackhawks
Let's get off to a good start!
Professor MJ
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5 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:
Week 5 selections
Love these two as well, we are on the same page!!!
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On 9/30/2019 at 8:12 AM, notanotherdonkey said:
Well done Professor and thank you for your input, hopefully see you on another thread soon.Take care.
You're welcome buddy!
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WEEK #5
PICK: Chicago Bears -5 against Oakland Raiders (rated 4 stars)
I was that close to rating it 5 stars as well. I love this play. Let’s call it 4.5 stars. There are still a few bookies with a point spread of 5, but most have now moved it to 5.5. Get on this one before the line changes too much.
The Raiders won’t be in super shape after traveling that much. They crossed the country to play in Minnesota, in Indianapolis, and now in England!?! Wow!! That’s an incredibly tough stretch.
Oakland might also letdown after making a nice upset in Indianapolis last week. However, you could argue that the Bears could also be less motivated after getting a key victory against the Vikings, a division rival.
Oakland’s best wide receiver, Tyrell Williams, is still beaten up. His offensive coordinator said he’s “hopeful” that Williams will be able to suit up this Sunday.
Can’t you feel the Chicago train is picking up some speed? They started the season slowly by losing 10-3 to the Packers and then squeaking by the Broncos, thanks for a 53-yard field goal as time expired. Since then, they were dominant against the Redskins and the Vikings.
Even before the season began, in my NFC North preview, I was claiming I wasn’t convinced that Mitch Trubisky was a good quarterback. He’s been struggling most of the season thus far.
He got hurt last week, and backup Chase Daniel looked better than him. He led the Bears to 4 scores in his first 5 drives off the bench against a more than decent Minnesota defense. I trust Matt Nagy to keep designing plays that are well-suited for him.LEAN #1: Los Angeles Rams +1.5 at Seattle Seahawks
When I picked the Eagles in the Thursday Night game last week, many people asked whether I was worried about taking the road team on a short week. I was indeed worried about it, but the fact that they were such a desperate team still enticed me to pick them over Green Bay.
I looked into the numbers to verify if road teams do tend to struggle in Thursday games. Over the past three years, they went 16-30-3 against the spread (ATS); that’s a very bad 35% success rate. If you look at the three years before that (i.e. the 2013, 2014 and 2015 seasons), road teams went 27-21-3 ATS, which was good for a 56% win rate.
Now, if you combine the numbers over those past six years, you get a 43-51-6 record for road teams ATS; that’s a 46% win percentage.
My main conclusion is you want to be cautious with road teams, while not necessarily avoiding them at all costs. If the conditions are right, you might want to bet them. This factor is the main reason why I’m taking the Rams, but not as an official play.
The Rams and the Seahawks have identical 3-1 records. However, Los Angeles’ opponents have a combined 9-7 record compared to 4-11-1 for Seattle’s opponents. In other words, the Rams have faced tougher opposition.
One more thing makes me tilt towards Los Angeles: they are coming off a very disappointing home loss to the Bucs. Good teams tend to rebound after a straight up loss.
However, the revenge factor is in favor of the Seahawks since they lost both meetings with the Rams last year. Indeed, Los Angeles won 33-31 in Seattle and 36-31 in L.A.
Neither team has noteworthy injuries, except left tackle Duane Brown who is questionable to play.
A quick bonus for you: I’ve got a collaborator, that I’m going to call JMF, who is a pretty smart guy and analyses matchups rigorously. He recommends betting the following proposition bet: over 4.5 receptions by Brandin Cooks (at -114 with Pinnacle right now).
He mentions how Seattle’s pass defense is below-average and he likes Cooks’ matchup with Tre Flowers, who is the Seahawks’ worst cornerback. Tedric Thompson is also ranked among the worst free safeties around the league. With head coach Sean McVay being good at exploiting favorable matchups, he might design many plays to get Cooks many balls going his way.LEAN #2: Green Bay Packers +3.5 at Dallas Cowboys
Both teams got off to a fast start in 2019 with three straight victories, followed by a loss last week.
The Cowboys have defeated the Giants, the Redskins and the Dolphins, whose combined record is 2-10. Meanwhile, Green Bay won against the Bears, the Vikings and the Broncos, whose combined record is 5-7.
Notice the Packers are 3-0 at AT&T Stadium, including the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers seems to relish facing Dallas; he has thrown 15 TD passes versus just 2 picks over 8 meetings.
Green Bay gets three extra days of rest after playing the Thursday Night game in Week #4. They are also coming off three straight home games, so they didn’t have to travel for a while. They are coming off a disappointing home loss to the Eagles, so I wouldn’t bet against Aaron Rodgers under these circumstances.
I like Green Bay to either win the game, or lose by a field goal or less.LEAN #3: New York Jets +13.5 at Philadelphia Eagles
This is clearly a sandwich game for the Eagles. They just racked up an emotional win in Green Bay on primetime television, and they are awaiting matchups against the Vikings and the Cowboys. Facing the Jets this week isn’t the best source of motivation.
Philadelphia gets three extra days of rest after playing last Thursday, but the Jets got even more rest since they were on their bye week. Generally speaking, I love picking winless teams coming off a bye.
Sam Darnold has a chance to play this week. He will probably be a game-time decision. Against a weak Eagles pass defense, it would be a good matchup for him. It would also help the running game. Le’Veon Bell hasn’t been able to get going so far this season, but keep in mind he faced three very strong defensive teams: Buffalo, New England and Cleveland. I could see him breaking out this week.Have a great weekend!
Professor MJ
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This is it! It's been a great baseball regular season, and it's coming to an end today.
I hope you enjoyed playing the system picks. More importantly, I hope you profited from them!
RECORD:
Bets won = 21
Bets lost = 19
Profit = +3.58$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)Today's pick of the day:
Indians (1.65 or -153) at Nationals
This pick is based on FOUR BETTING ANGLES (!!?!?!), including "The Pummeled Pitchers" betting angle:
"Bet the road team if it has lost... a) its past 2 games by allowing 9+ runs in each meeting; b) its past 3 games by allowing 7+ runs in each meeting (unless their money line is greater than 3.0); c) its past 4 games by allowing 6+ runs in each meeting."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +37.58 units from 253 bets (ROI = 14.9%)
Since Cleveland has lost its past four games by allowing 10, 8, 8 and 8 runs respectively, we are betting them.
A big THANK YOU to those of you who have been following my daily baseball plays, I appreciate a lot!
I will be posting some NHL and NBA system picks this year so keep an eye on it (you know how to find me!).
Professor MJ
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It sucks that the Tigers were up 4-2 before the game was postponed. We were on our way to win the bet. We are going at it once again today.
RECORD:
Bets won = 21
Bets lost = 18
Profit = +4.58$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)MLB Pick of the Day for September 28, 2019
Tigers in Game #1 of doubleheader (at +116 or 2.16) at White Sox
Same reasons as yesterday.
Cheers,
Professor MJ
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KABOOM!!! We are on fire! This time a huge underdog hit, thanks to the Angels defeating the Astros in extra innings.
Since September 10th, our record is 13-6 for a profit of 6.14 units. Unreal. Let's finish the season strong, guys!
RECORD:
Bets won = 21
Bets lost = 18
Profit = +4.58$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Tigers in Game #1 of doubleheader (at +147 or 2.47) at White Sox
This pick is based on two betting angles, one of them being "The Hot Bats" betting angle #1:
"Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while scoring 6+ runs in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing at home."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +47.56 units from 1140 bets (ROI = 4.2%)
In 2019: +35.16 units from 162 bets (ROI = 21.7%)Since Chicago has won their past two games by scoring 8 runs in each meeting, we are betting against them.
Have a good Friday!
Professor MJ
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On 9/10/2019 at 4:51 AM, notanotherdonkey said:
A change of fortune is due soon.Keep the faith.
You called it. Since you made that post: 13-6 for +6.14 units. Wow!
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RECORD:
Bets won = 20
Bets lost = 18
Profit = +2.50$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Angels (at +208 or 3.08) vs Astros
It's a long shot, but I'm going for it!
This pick is based on "The Stingy Pitchers" betting angle:
"Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while allowing just 0 or 1 run in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is 2.50 or less."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +26.54 units from 375 bets (ROI = 7.1%)
Since Houston shutout their opponents in their past two games, we are betting against them today.
Best of luck!
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WEEK #4
PICK: Cleveland Browns +7 at Baltimore Ravens (rated 2 stars)
What? A 7-point spread in a game between division rivals whose talent level is roughly the same? Give me the underdog!
Last week I picked the Bengals +6 at the Bills even though there weren’t many betting angles suggesting to bet them. It just came from my own assessment of how the game would play out. The same thing is occurring in this game. Divisional matchups often lead to hard-fought and tight games, and that’s what I expect in this one. Last year, Cleveland beat Baltimore by 3 points, while the Ravens got their revenge later on with a 2-point victory.
Cleveland’s struggles have been much talked about and publicized. I feel like it has inflated the line on the Browns.
I know, I know. Baker Mayfield has not looked good so far. He has thrown 3 TD passes versus 5 interceptions, and he has completed just 57% of his passes. Do you really expect him to struggle that much all season long? I don’t. That’s another example of “regressing to the mean”; his numbers have been subpar and they will certainly improve until the rest of the season. I have no doubt about that. But right now people are judging him based on his first three games of the season.
The Browns still have many dangerous weapons on offense with Nick Chubb (who has looked good so far), Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry. And their defense is above average. They were missing four starters in the secondary but still held the Rams to just 20 points. Now, they are expected to get Damarious Randall back and they have two more guys, Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams, who are questionable to play.
Basically, I’m trying to tell you that the Browns are being underrated. And on the other side, I feel like the Ravens are getting overrated. First, they crushed the abysmal Miami Dolphins. Fine. Then, it wasn’t that easy beating the Cards at home in a 23 to 17 victory. Then, at first sight it might seem like they came close to beating the Chiefs in a 33-28 loss, but remember they were down 30 to 13 through the first three quarters. Lamar Jackson threw a couple of very wild and erratic passes that were miraculously caught, otherwise Kansas City would have beaten them pretty easily.
Everybody got all excited over Lamar Jackson’s first two games. Which teams did he face? The Dolphins and the Cardinals, two of the worst defenses in the NFL. He didn’t look so good against a more respectable defense last week by completing just 51% of his passes.
I’m taking the Browns and the 7 points. Thank you!
LEAN: New England -7 at Buffalo Bills
New England’s first three opponents have a combined 0-9 record. Buffalo’s first three opponents have a combined 1-8 record. Finally a meaningful game for both squads!
If I had to summarize in one sentence why I’m taking the Patriots in this one, it would go like this: do you really want to bet against a mastermind like Bill Belichick facing a young and error-prone quarterback?
Sure, I feel like Buffalo doesn’t get enough credit. They are better than what most people think. But they are not in the same class as New England just yet. Let’s be honest, the Bills could be 1-2 right now. They came back from a 16-point deficit to beat the Jets and they needed a late touchdown to beat Cincinnati last week.
As the season progresses Buffalo might close the gap with the Pats, but not yet. They still have some learning to do, and they might learn the hard way this Sunday.
Obviously, I’m rooting for the Bills to win this game to help my $10,000 bet on them to win at least 7 games this year, but I don’t see it as very likely. It’s going to be extremely loud at New Era Field, but Tom Brady has enough experience to stay poised and do his thing.
LEAN: Miami Dolphins +16 vs Los Angeles Chargers
Wait, what? I’m picking the Dolphins after telling you last week they had perhaps one of the worst rosters in the history of the NFL?
Yes, because I believe the linesmakers are exaggerating with such a big spread. A couple of weeks ago, Miami was an 18-point underdog at home against the Pats. Now facing a much less stronger team, the line is just 1.5 points lower? Give me Miami, then!
The Dolphins played the Cowboys very tough in the first half. They were down 10-6 and driving in Dallas territory. It looked like they were going to go at halftime with the lead when Kenyon Drake made a criticial fumble at the 7-yard line. That seemed to break Miami’s backs.
The Chargers have looked shaky thus far. They are 1-2 with their only win in overtime at home against the Colts. Maybe losing their two All-Pro safeties, Derwin James and Adrian Phillips, as well as their star running back Melvin Gordon who is still holding out, is indeed hurting Los Angeles big time.
LEAN: Oakland Raiders +7 at Indianapolis Colts
The Raiders will be looking to avenge a 42-28 loss against the Colts last season. They are also going to try to rebound from a poor outing in Minnesota last week.
Derek Carr has been pretty good this year, despite a 1-2 record. But losing to the Chiefs and in Minnesota is nothing to be ashamed of. He has completed 74% of his passes this season.
I felt very bad for the Colts fans when Andrew Luck announced his retirement a few weeks before the season began. What a tough blow. So I’m happy for them that Indianapolis is off to a nice 2-1 start, where their only loss came in overtime at the Chargers. They have done some nice things, but here is one more case of a team that I feel has overachieved thus far.
Indy’s best wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton, left the game last week with a quad injury. His status is uncertain, but I’ve read he is more on the “doubtful side of questionable” for Week #4. Even if he plays, who knows how effective he will be.
To me, the spread should be much smaller than this. In my opinion, the Colts have much less than a 50% probability of beating the Raiders by 8 points or more.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
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Yesterday's long shot didn't hit, unfortunately. Let's keep grinding!
RECORD:
Bets won = 19
Bets lost = 18
Profit = +1.43$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Diamondbacks (at +107 or 2.07) vs Cards
This pick is based on 2 betting angles at a time!
First: "The Snapped Winning Streak" betting angle:
"Fade a road team whose winning streak of length 5+ was just snapped in their previous game (so you bet the HOME team)."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +22.06 units from 281 bets (ROI = 7.9%)St. Louis got its 6-game winning streak snapped last night and they are indeed playing on the road this afternoon.
Second: "The Big Upset" betting angle #1:
"Suppose Team A upsets Team B with odds greater than 2.50. If they meet again the next day, bet Team A if its money line is 2.25 or less."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +37.79 units from 261 bets (ROI = 14.5%)Arizona upset those same Cardinals yesterday at +179 odds, they are playing each other again today and the odds on the D-Backs are indeed less than +125 so we are betting them.
Cheers!
Professor MJ
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We are 11-5 over the past 16 daily picks. We're going after a big underdog today.
RECORD:
Bets won = 19
Bets lost = 17
Profit = +2.43$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
White Sox (at +237 or 3.37) vs Indians
This pick is based on "The Blowout Effect" betting angle #2:
"Suppose Team A beats Team B by 7+ runs. If Team A's next game is against Team C, bet Team C."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +20.39 units from 590 bets (ROI = 3.5%)
In 2019: -0.35 units from 69 betsSince Cleveland won its previous match by a 9-run margin against a different team, we are betting against them.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
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LEAN: Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 at Green Bay Packers
The Eagles’ backs are up against the wall. Sitting at 1-2 while Dallas owns a perfect 3-0 record, Philadelphia must win this game. They’ve lost their past two games, including a very disappointing home loss to the Lions. I do expect them to rebound and give everything they’ve got.
It would be an understatement to claim the Eagles have not played up to expectations thus far. They were among the NFC favorites to make it to the Super Bowl with a loaded offense and a tough defense, especially their defensive line. Meanwhile, the Packers have surprised a lot of people with their 3 wins this season, and I believe they are not as talented as their record shows.
So, on one hand you’ve got a team that has disappointed, and another that is probably overrated by the betting public right now. As a contrarian, I’m going to put my money on the cold team.
Injuries are obviously a concern for the Eagles, especially at wide receiver. DeSean Jackson is likely out for this game, but Alshon Jeffery has a real shot at suiting up this Thursday. That would be a big boost to Philadelphia’s offense since Nelson Agholor has not done well as the number one guy and tight end Dallas Goedert has disappointed thus far with just two catches and a bad drop in the end zone last week.
Still, the Eagles’ offense has a lot of weapons. Carson Wentz is an elite quarterback and he has a very respectable backfield with Jordan Howard, Darren Sproles and rookie Miles Sanders. Tight end Zach Ertz is also very tough to defend.
Even though the Packers’ defense has done extremely well this year by allowing no more than 16 points in all three games, I feel they are going to regress to the mean and allow enough points for Philadelphia to cover the spread, or even win the game.
Notice that both Packers running backs are banged up, as Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones were listed as limited participants in practice Monday. They should be ready to go, but they are not super healthy either.
Green Bay will be playing a third straight home game, which is good for the rest factor.
Here is an interesting statistic: the Packers are 49-30 against the spread as home favorites since Aaron Rodgers took over in 2008. That 62% success rate ranks first in the NFL over that time period.
Still, I’m going with the Eagles. I find it difficult to bet against a very desperate team, especially when this squad has so much talent. Take advantage of this play while the Eagles have lost the bettors’ confidence, which has definitely impacted the line. I do believe there is much less than a 50% chance that Green Bay wins by 5 points or more, so I’m betting Philadelphia in this one.
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8 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:
BEARS win 31 to 15
Good job buddy!!!
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RECORD:
Bets won = 18
Bets lost = 17
Profit = +1.91$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Nationals (at -191 or 1.524) vs Phillies
This pick is based on "The Cold Teams Matchup" betting angle #1:
"Bet a home team coming off a loss when facing a road team coming off 1-2-3 straight losses. Bet only if the home team's money line is 1.667 or less."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +32.68 units from 347 bets (ROI = 9.4%)
In 2019: -$2.48 units from 36 bets (ROI = -6.9%)Both Philadelphia and Washington are on a 1-game losing streak and the Nats' odds are indeed smaller than 1.667, so we are betting them today.
Cheers!
Professor MJ
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RECORD:
Bets won = 17
Bets lost = 17
Profit = +1.58$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Yankees (at -303 or 1.33) vs Blue Jays
This pick is based on "The Snapped Winning Streak" betting angle:
"Fade a road team whose winning streak of length 5+ was just snapped in their previous game (so you bet the HOME team)."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +22.06 units from 281 bets (ROI = 7.9%)
In 2019: -1.33 units from 30 betsSince Toronto just saw its 5-game winning streak snapped yesterday, we are fading them in New York.
Enjoy your Sunday!
Professor MJ
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RECORD:
Bets won = 16
Bets lost = 17
Profit = +1.29$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
A's (at -340 or 1.29) vs Rangers
This pick is based on 2 different betting systems, including "The Blowout Effect" betting angle #1:
"Suppose Team A beats Team B by 8+ runs, and they meet again the next day. Bet Team A."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +49.17 units from 930 bets (ROI = 5.3%)
In 2019: +13.26 units from 123 bets (ROI = 10.8%)Since Oakland beat Texas 8-0 last night, we are betting the A's to repeat.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
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Now 4 straight bets won, and also 8 of the past 12. Let's finish the season strong!
RECORD:
Bets won = 16
Bets lost = 16
Profit = +$2.29 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Phillies (at +170 or 2.70) at Indians
This pick is based on 2 betting systems, one of them being "The Blowout Effect" betting angle #2:
"Suppose Team A beats Team B by 7+ runs. If Team A's next game is against Team C, bet Team C."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +20.39 units from 590 bets (ROI = 3.5%)
In 2019: +1.35 units from 65 bets (ROI = 2.1%)Since Cleveland won its last game by a 7-run margin and they are facing a new opponent today, we are fading them.
Have a good Friday!
Professor MJ
NHL Picks 2019-2020 by Professor MJ
in NHL & Ice Hockey Predictions
Posted
RECORD:
Bets won = 1
Bets lost = 2
Profit = -$0.95 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
New Jersey Devils (at -112 or 1.893) vs New York Rangers
The play is based on "The Cold Teams Matchup" betting angle:
Bet a home team undergoing a losing skid of 3+ straight losses when facing a road team that has lost its past 1-2 game(s).
Since the Devils have lost their past six games, while the Blue Shirts lost 1 game in a row, we're taking New Jersey tonight!
Professor MJ