cjsmith1972

Down memory lane. when i first joined this site the first comments i submitted was "thoughts on the ebor anyone, i have been backing one for months."
BillyHills (Rest his soul) in his usual  sarcastic way (which i liked) replied. tell us which one then (before it runs preferably) or are you fishing?
My response-Trueshan I have backed it at 33/1 16/1 14/1 12/1 the only danger I see is Withhold. As for fishing I like fishing but I always find my own GG's. A wise old geyser once said to a young lad if you can't pick your own horse your betting on the wrong sport.
So Ebor arrives and i have splashed out the best part of 400 quid over 8 months and Marquand gave it a shocker, Holly on Trueshan then beat that ebor winner and stradavarious by a country mile at 20/1 on champions day of which i only had 50 quid on but cant really complain. The rest as they say is history, yes people will point to the different ground conditions but it is my belief that if a horse can win on the AW carrying 10-00+ then it should handle good or gf ground.
A little amusement- Went to an Ebor once and argued all the way there with my mate that my horse would murder his. mmm well his fell and brought mine down, i still shake my head in disbelief  at that one to this day. ?
Forgot to add ? The race in which Enemy (9-0) came 5th in in Dubai, i just cant get out of my mind (highlighted in NOTEBOOK HORSES) Manobo (8-9) won it in an incredible time for a 1m 6f race, Enemy unfancied at 66/1 was flying in the last 2 furlongs so for the Ebor this year its Ian Williams french import Enemy for me. 25/1 is a great price.

2..55 NC nothing really stood out for me here very  tricky even race imo  i  have had a small e/w on the Goldie trained 2nd string 40/1 shot ANNADALE.
3.30 NC unlike the above race i could have backed about 6 in this!
My main bet and  i really like it, should go close is 20/1 shot ISLAND BRAVE i do back a lot of horses that  have run well in these  big handicaps the previous year  this horse ran a cracker to be 3rd a few ibs lower and a very hot Apprentice on top  claiming a bit more off   mmm not a 20/1 shot in my book.
I also like ALRIGHT SUNSHINE e/w around 16's with any luck may go off bigger  this horse ran very well at Ascot lto out   seems to be running into form and i think only a matter of time before it will pick up one of these big races and looks one to follow.
Ted wouldn't be Ted  without a big fat juicy total outsider  so it's a very small e/w play on  66/1 rag RED VERDON  on old form has a  squeak.
4.38 NC Class horse in the race has been off for 2 year and has changed stable but  has never really done anything after a break but i  just can't let this horse go unbacked at 28/1!  SIRDANCEALOT.
Best of Luck All
 
 
 
 
 

Well done to @Cash Out Kevand @LeMalewho found 40/1 winner Holloway Boy. It was still not enough to take the daily prize, this goes to @Tipsterixwho selected 33/1 and 10/1 winners to take the prize and finish overall 3rd.
Congratulations to @RUGwho had another profitable day to take the overall competition.
Well done to @Offrampwho finishes 2nd.
Could the prize winners please PM pay-pal details.
See you at Goodwood !



 

2.30 - Alzahir
3.05 - Dubawi Legend
3.40 - Solid Stone
4.20 - Naval Crown
5.00 - Asjad
5.35 - Knightswood
6.10 - Master Milliner

2.30 - Alzahir
3.05 - Dubawi Legend
3.40 - Solid Stone
4.20 - Naval Crown
5.00 - Asjad
5.35 - Knightswood
6.10 - Master Milliner

As in previous years we will be running a tipsters competition for ROYAL ASCOT, Tuesday 14th June to Saturday 18th June.
 
Rules:
1 selection per race throughout the competition Bets settled to £1 level stakes - WIN Only Bets settled at SP Highest accumulative total over the competition wins £60 cash (via PayPal) Runner Up wins £25 and the third place wins £15, all prizes via your PayPal account In addition there will be a £10 prize each day for the highest profit for that day No edits allowed in selection posts Losses incurred for losers. Replacement selections for NRs can be posted but must be before the first race deadline All Bets must be posted prior to the first race each day (no exceptions) Not compulsory to enter everyday or every race (so if you miss the first day or two you can still take part) Leader-board posted each evening A minimum of 14 bets is required to qualify for any prizes All welcome, good luck.

Fun lucky 15 40p (£6.00) which i will post every day through June with a bank of £100 if the bank halves so will the stakes if the bank doubles so will the stake lets see how it goes given the good quality racing in June.
230 Nott  Beggarman 13/8                         lost (dissapointing 3rd of 7)
555 Kemp Alpine Girl  5/1                           lost
830 Kemp Graphite (nap)      16/1               3rd (ran well)
900 Kemp Murau                   7/4                 won 2/1 (bog)
prices bet365 at time of posting
Stake £6.00 Return £2.00 Loss of £4.00 bank £96.00

4 winners found from the 6 races (including 25/1 Hewick) for a profit of just over 15 points.

You are probably better off picking higher odds when using free bets.
If you had 10 free bets of £10 and you bet them on 1/1 shots you would, on average, win half of them and return £50.
If you bet them on 9/1 shots you would, on average, win only 1 of them but return £90.

3yo races tomorrow
225 ribhi                      10/3
335 rishes baar            10/1
445 educator                5/2 (Miles ahead on my figures)

As in previous years we will be running a tipsters competition for Aintree, Thursday 7th April to Saturday 9th April.
 
Rules:
1 selection per race throughout the competition Bets settled to £1 level stakes - WIN Only Bets settled at SP Highest accumulative total over the competition wins £60 cash (via PayPal) Runner Up wins £25 and the third place wins £15, all prizes via your PayPal account In addition there will be a £10 prize each day for the highest profit for that day No edits allowed in selection posts Losses incurred for losers. Replacement selections for NRs can be posted but must be before the first race deadline All Bets must be posted prior to the first race each day (no exceptions) Not compulsory to enter everyday or every race (so if you miss the first day or two you can still take part) Leader-board posted each evening A minimum of 14 bets is required to qualify for any prizes All welcome, good luck.

Dubai world cup meeting at Meydan, respective or  irrespective of form its always difficult to get away from the Godolphin horses because they win more than their fair share year in year out but a little look around and there might be a bit of value lurking here and there at the bigger prices.  i view this as an 8 race card (excluding the arab race) so i reason  if i can find just 1 gg about the 10/1 mark i can make a tad of profit even having a dip in every race.
So here are my thoughts
1220 mubakker                      10/1
1255 manobo                         8/13 (no bet for me (one for the 1K+ backers, easy money?) at that price is as solid as you can get LTO was an unbelievable time and performance)
135 emaraaty ana                   16/1 (cracking price, would like to tip suesa but all i know says it needs soft so is a crap price)
210 bendoog                          16/1 (bits of gossip for this in december not lived up to it but maybe they were ticking it over jockey is one of the best round here T O'shea)
245 Meeras                             10/1 (is a bit of value in my opinion)
320 Lord glitters                      16/1 (you could do worse that having this at ew value. its form is there for all to see) NR so we swop to the Haggis Mohaafeth at 6/1
355 alenquer                            9/1  (my idea of a banker and will have pyledriver in forecast coz im greedy like that, Haggis might have a saturday to remember if you add in doncaster)
430 Magny Cours                     25/1 (cracking price and Fabre doesn't waste his time for nothing)
So there you have it, win and certainly each way i reckon there are a few butty's in that lot and well worth watching on stream all prices Bet365 btw.
 
Well that was a day to forget, Jesus what do we know about the japanese horses, other than its their mid season so are all super fit, they never really figured before but fair play they produced today. 

Interesting observation after Cheltenham, I made a lot of money  backing big prices EW ( i only had 3 singles win all week) in comparatively small stakes multiples due to BET365 extra places. So credit where credit is due. Plus they gave out £25 quids worth of free bets on the week.
i compared with a few other sites william hill for example i wouldnt have even won 5% of what i did win due to this observation my 66/1 x2  40/1 33/1 places would not have been paid out with other bookies. Even the gold cup paid first 4 unfortunately for me Royale Pagaille got done for 4th which would have netted me £2,500 in place money for 8 quid. Overall a really good Cheltenham for me due to not sticking to my usual method and diversifying so a few lessons learnt especially for next years festivals.
 

A tough day for those hoping to move up the leaderboard as 4 winning favourites made it difficult to make big profits.
Congratulations to @Donkey Shotwho hangs on to top spot despite drawing a blank on the last day.
Well done to runner up @Kingdom forand 3rd place @Bretloca.
Could the prize winners please PM pay-pal details.
Next stop Aintree !

A good start to the season with Rexmont winning and a big sp in the end as well.

130 Gallopin Des Champs 
210 Ballyandy 
250 Conflated 
330 Thyme Hill 
410 Celebre Dallan 
450 Love Envoi 
530 Chambard 

1.30  Mighty Potter
2.10  Riviere D'etal
2.50  Corach Rambler
3.30  Adagio
4.10  Stormy Ireland
4.50  Gaelic Warrior
5.30  Stattler
Good luck to all

As in previous years we will be running a tipsters competition for Cheltenham, Tuesday 15th to Friday 18th March.
 
Rules:
1 selection per race throughout the competition Bets settled to £1 level stakes - WIN Only Bets settled at SP Highest accumulative total over the competition wins £60 cash (via PayPal) Runner Up wins £25 and the third place wins £15, all prizes via your PayPal account No edits allowed in selection posts Losses incurred for losers. Replacement selections for NRs can be posted but must be before the first race deadline All Bets must be posted prior to the first race each day (no exceptions) Not compulsory to enter everyday or every race (so if you miss the first day or two you can still take part) Leader-board posted each evening A minimum of 14 bets is required to qualify for any prizes All welcome, good luck.
Let's see if anyone can beat @Skittle's 87 point profit last year !

Won. BSP 11.40.
Back in profit, 21 / 94, lsp 8.91

It's not a different selection criteria - those are the shortest priced favs (with only 0 or 1 RP tip - see below) when I took my odds line from Betfair at 10:19 GMT.
The system is:
from all UK & Eire races, find the favourites; compare them with the RP Naps table, found here take any favourite that has either 0 or 1 tip from the RP Naps Table - we now have a set of candidates for my daily trixie filter that set of candidates by 0 or 1 tip only, and then take the lowest 3.

In a word Yes
 @MCLARKE is correct in part but his statement does not paint the full picture.
From what I can see your ave odds are around 1.75 , now if these were the true odds then his statement would be correct
but some will be true odds of <1.75 and others will be over bet odds and should be >1.75 , so finding a method that gives a reasonable estimation of what the price should be for your selections would help with the variance .
I cannot understand why your backing trixies with an ave odds so low when the break even minimum is odds of 2.00 unless as @Bang on & @Wildgarden have discussed for bank retention.
All your profits are from the treble coming up as @ those odds in most cases a double does not break even , I guess its some punters like regular hits to keep the interest up while others can wait a while between drinks
Personally I'd either do
Doubles (go to the bar more often  ave 6% return for a win)
 Treble (more time between drinks ave 435% return for a win)
IMO To find out which suits your style of punting best I'd do a Monte Carlo sim of 1 months results in excel then expand the results for an expected 12 months using the  Data Table in the What-If Analysis, This will give you a good indication of what to expect.
ATB
VT ?
 

Congratluations to @Thomas Parkwho wins with an impressive £28 profit. He didn't need the 12/1 winner of the last race but selected it anyway.
Well done to @roger2256who takes 2nd spot and @gbettlewho posts the best return of the day to grab the 3rd prize.
Could the prize winners please PM me pay-pal details.

The pack are closing in on @Thomas Park, can he hold his nerve ?

I just wanted to wish all forumites a very Merry Christmas and most importantly a healthy New Year.
I hope you've enjoyed my ramblings this year and lets hope we can all find a winner or three over the Festive season.
My Boxing Day thoughts are already up and my horse racing tips (available on the 'Racing Tips' link above are available daily from 6PM onwards normally (Boxing Day's will be up tomorrow).
The Brigadier