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vvararu

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Posts posted by vvararu

  1. 6 minutes ago, Stegosaurus said:

    Surely the only reasonable conclusion is that there’s no bets to be had on the remaining three matches in the women’s draw. 

    Any of the four could win the tournament, or lose their semi final.

    We have no concept of how good the two teenagers really are, or how far they can really go, as this is their first time at this stage.

    Similarly, we have no concept of how good Johanna Konta actually is on clay, as there is no logic or previous seasons to base it on. Somehow she is suddenly good on clay, from being barely able to win a match on the surface before this season. We don’t know how good though, as we have nothing to base it on. Her performance against Sloane Stephens was sensational. 20 points out of 21 won on her serve in the second set - only service point she lost in that set was a double fault. We have no idea if she will get near that level again though.

    Ashleigh Barty is the only one that we could perhaps get some kind of a read on - even then not very much of a read on her abilities on clay - but that’s irrelevant if we have nothing to go on on how good the other three are.

    I hope that makes sense, but the point I’m trying to make is that surely the only conclusion here is that there is no value to be had on the rest of the women’s tournament. NO BETS from here on in please folks.

    And I was so sure about Barty...

  2. Barty - Anisimova. Barty to win @1.53 Unibet.

    Halep's defeat was the surprise of the day today. However, I've seen the match, and I'd rather say that Halep was under her normal level than Anisimova was shining. On the other hand, Barty played today very well against the power of Keys meaning that he is ready to stand the aggressive game of the youngster. 

    I think that Barty will win easily Anisimova and, for those who like bigger stakes, will take the Roland Garros this year @2.70 Unibet.

  3. 2 hours ago, four-leaf said:

    Richard Gasquet to beat Jeremy Chardy at 2.25 with Unibet

    RIchard owns a 5-1 record in this matchup and Jeremy has had enourmous problems lately turning in good performances. His form isn't good. He was decent in Madrid but that clay surface is faster and more suitable for him and Richard did pretty mutch ok in Madrid by getting his first win of the season. I saw that match and he was very solid, did few mistakes and Jeremy is mostly an error machine and that could cost him again this time.

    Did he look recovered enough? I just watched his game agains Davidovich Fokina and he (Gasquet) played very well but his face revealed pain sometimes...

  4. 12 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

    With some more good performances by Stefanos he should even make it to London in November as he is very mutch a contender for that and he wont be interested in the NextGen final since he already won that tournament last season. He has points in the Canada Masters final to defend and a final in Washington. I also expect some of the current top 10 players to drop points in the coming months like John Isner, J-MDP and Kevin Anderson.

    What is going on with Anderson? Have not seen him for a while. Or he does not play on clay... ?

  5. 14 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

    Early break for Dominic, looks good. Now he just needs to hold serve four more times and then first set is on the board. It's likely that Novak can even drop serve another time in first set. He's looked pretty crappy the first points in this semi.

    Never underestimate Nole :)

    Of course he still can lose the match but that’s why he is number 1. He can beat anyone in a good day.

  6.  

    Opelka to beat Carreno Busta at 2.12

    Faster conditions should suit Opelka and he had a good win against Londero in Qualifying. Carreno Busta hasn't played much of late and is returning from injury. Think the odds on Opelka seem to be worth a shot but expecting a tight match either way.

    I agree that it's gonna be a tight match. It depends on the physics of Carreno Busta.

    However, I would be a little bit worried, looking at the qualifier match between Opelka and M. Zverev. Yes, Opelka has won that game however he won it in 2 tie-breaks agains a very weak player. Busta should be definitely a tougher nut to crack.

  7.  

    well as u folks know this tournament plays a little differently than the other clay m1000, and 500. because of the altitude balls will fly a bit faster. serves will b a bit bigger. big hitters will b able to play their game a little easier. The weather is supposed to b dry and no wind too. Dampness would slow them down a little. The conditions are courts play to the games of the guys i'm playing below. this could all be for nothing and i could lose but this is what i've witnessed and documented in my many years of watching tennis. I'm not (and never will b) a tipster or anything like that, i just love to watch and analyze tennis.

    Expecting a Khol hangover from Munich to be honest. That said, I'm liking Kukushkin at +4.5.

    I think Seppi could take a set from Monfils. Historically Seppi plays him quite well and Monfils seems to play a lot of 3 set clay court matches. So I like the +1.5 sets.

    Like Fokina to keep rolling too.

    Also think Klizan can trouble Cilic with these conditions but unsure if I want to bet it.

     

    With the conditions mentioned, I’d rather go with Cilic, him being a bigger hitter. This guy should start to deliver results one day :)

  8. What do you think guys about Berrettini - RBA? Will be Berrettini able to carry on one more match against rested an psysically strong RBA? He played 8 games in 13 days and I think it will be difficult for him physically against the Spaniard.

     

    More than that, I guess Berrettini will want to try his luck in Madrid qualifiers.

  9. What do you think guys about Tiafoe - Cuevas? Tiafoe is underdog but from one side he has to defend final points from 2018 Estoril and from another side Cuevas will have to play in Madrid and to defend his past year 1/16 presence.

    Tiafoe is younger and should have more energy while Cuevas will probably need a couple of days of rest before Madrid.

     

    From another perspective if Cuevas wins today and reaches semis, he will get 90 points, exactly as many as he have to defend in Madrid.

     

    Any thoughts about this?

  10.  

    Estoril is important for Maleks form that he is searching for and he's never played in Madrid before while Leonardo does have 90 ranking points to defend there from last season and Leo has been in Madrid 5 times reaching the third round twice and one of those times where last season. But it's a risk I'll have to take that Madrid would be equally important to Malek but I think he's taking this tournament in Estoril more serious than Leonardo.

    Ok. Got your thoughts. Anyway, good pick.

  11.  

    Malek Jaziri to beat Leonardo Mayer at 3.20 with Unibet

    I think we could see Malek fighting for everything in this match because Estoril is important to him. Leonardo wants to play in Madrid, no reason for him to have motivation to play any longer in Estoril.

    Could you please give more details about your suppositions?  Why is Estoril so important to Jaziri? I guess Jaziri would like to play in Madrid no less than Mayer... 

  12. 1 hour ago, South_African_Punter said:

    Anyone have thoughts on Schwartzmann v Edmund? I'm very close to picking the underdog (Schwartzmann) but then I remembered he got an injury in the South American swing and hasn't played that well since. 

    I liked the way how Edmund played this year. Both on hard and clay courts. His powerful serves might do the difference. Did not see games of argentinian but from the statistics, he's not doing very well last games (as @CzechPunter mentioned).

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