black rabbit

Good Morning.
Little tip today (or the one to avoid lol, not brave enough to put it on the "£20.00 Daily Challenge"). 3.20 Epsom, Qitaal. Justin. 

Exchanges ? 
Bookies shop with fake wig & muzzie in case they recognise you ? 
3.10 Yarmouth - LUCENTIO 9/2 William Hill .👎
4.55 Yarmouth - SHE IS A KEEPER 9/2 Coral .👎 both ran poorly despite Kellawasy's being backed into favourite & finished last .

505 epsom 
Mr baloo likes it here at epsom ...has a fitness edge having won at kemp and has the services of Alec voikhanksky who's good for his claim of 3lb ....should run well 
5pt win 100/30 

210 epsom 
Looking for Lynda  8.5 9/1
Mountain peak. 8.5 10/1
Clearpoint.   8.2 
Tricky race with lots of questions marks but I'll try 2pt Ew on top 2 as they look a bit of value 

I used to have a Ford Capri Coupe !
Don't start me with a rugby try. I had a heated debate with some of my rugby playing mates about whether the plural is trys or tries.

I guess this thread illustrates a couple of things; why racing is so fascinating as a betting medium for many people and why for me, from a “keep it simpler” perspective, I’ve ended up specialising in selling on the spreads and backing goal and tryscorers.
I do make “studied” bets on goalscorers where additional variables are weighed (games played/started, number of games scored in, last 10 or 20 game goals scored, even xG etc sometimes) but the main anytime systems run off just two variables; best bookies price and spread price for player goal minutes. From just that I make most of my selections and turn a reasonable profit. A lot of data gathering and analysis went into getting to where I am now but I can look at a game and identify the bets in a coupe of minutes.
The spreads are simpler still as the only variable is the spread price. Having identified the markets where the price is set so high that the sell price will almost always offer value you just blindly sell anything that meets your chosen minimum price. The golden age has gone in that respect though now there’s effectively only one firm. Firstly the edge has been reduced as there’s only one set of prices and secondly we’re left with a firm that won’t hesitate to limit or close successful punters.
I’ve never really looked at the spread betting markets on racing but my gut feel is that they won’t fall into the “selling blindly” space though you’re more likely to find value in opposing a horse than backing one. I’m also not sure if they’d be as useful as a predictive tool as the goal/try minute prices are.

I would have pace of race as my number one,past form and potential pace for todays race 

Now put them in order of importance, i would take a good guess that different punters put them in different orders. You could add on stopwatch (RP) big fields v small fields and even naps the list is almost endless. Once you made your selection, The big question i would ask is- what was it based on? did you end up using speed figures or form?

Trainer form maybe, always something I think I should pay more attention to!
What the actual ground is compared to the going description i.e working your ratings out after the time of first race is known. Saw someone say recently that they never bet on the first race for this reason. 
Temperature, there must be horses out there that only perform when it's warm. Not seen much about this but it would make sense.
Market mover? Drifted like a barge or smashed in.

I like to keep things simple !
I mainly look at handicaps and at the following .........
class movement - obviously dropping in class preferred, this related to handicap marks
trip -  D win or some reason why a horse might improve for a new trip
going
track configuration (particularly uphill finishes, straight/bend)
I look at the last 3 as a combined factor trip/track/going ......... will the horse be effective at this trip on this track on today's going
that's mainly it
I will check trainer form to see if the yard is horribly out of form or banging winners in left, right and centre
and draw if the trip/track/going favours one side
Days since run I might look at to see how a horse goes after a break (this combined with trainer form)
 
these last few things mainly to see if there's any reason to abandon a selection I've made by looking at class and trip/track/going

Made me laugh .....my computer uses 17 of your list as I worked down so they must all have a big effect ...lol 🤣

When I first started betting back in the early 80s I used to follow tipsters, mostly Newsboy from the Daily Mirror (a good socialist rag). I struggled to make a profit, probably because his tips were widely followed.
As I am always on the quest for value rather than winners it might make sense to bet against popular tipsters as their selections are probably overbet.
My data doesn't include such tipsters data so it's not an area I can really comment on with authority.
Spread betting (for racing) still on my to do list !

To be flippant, who’s tipped a horse on here when I’ve got a freebie or offer to utilise! But, for some people maybe tipster selections/naps can be a positive or negative signals as part of a selection process.
Then there’s spread betting prices, something I suspect hardly any racing punters would pay any heed to. Probably a red herring as my gut feel is they wouldn’t be of much use for that sport, but they’re hugely predictive for me in betting on goal and tryscorers so, if I was ever going to take a proper tilt at betting on racing I’d want to explore that angle if only to eliminate it 

There has been debate in the Speed Ratings thread about the importance of going and distance. This has raised the question about which are the most important variables to consider when making selections. I will start with my list in order of importance. Please fell free to comment or add your own lists.
Odds (both current race and previous race, exclude long odds)
Days since last run (higher preferred)
Race distance v distance of previous races
Finishing position of previous runs (not including last run)
Draw (this list is for flat racing only)
Number of runs
Number of runs (current season)
Going
Weight
Class movement
Country horse bred in
Race distance
Claiming jockey
Winning / losing distance of last race
Turf / AW
Weight v previous run
Official Rating
Finish position last run
Same / different jockey
Same / different course
Number of runners in previous race
Sex of horse
Age
Previous course
Handicap / non handicap
Official rating v last run
Official rating v last winning run
Maiden / non maiden
Course winner
Races since last win
Month
Course
Distance winner
Beaten favourite
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

😱 👍 soooo close but still a 'winner' coming 2nd by a nose! ......yes its 'Blonde logic' as i had Surrey Quest in our Scottish National sweepstake in our Salon, so enough to pay for 2 x Bottles white wine to go with our Indian takeaway this evening 👌..... as we unwind from day of Grandparents duty 🙄

Forza Orta                                             7 05 Ths/               1/40th of a pt ew  20/1
Expressionless                                     5 00 Neb/              1/40th of a pt ew   16/1
We'llhavewan                                       3 35 Ayr/               1/40th of a pt ew    44/1
Iron Bridge                                            3 35 Ayr/               1/40th of a pt ew    33/1
Racingbreak Ryder                               3 15 Gw/               1/40th of a pt ew    36/1
First Street                                             2 25 Ayr/               1/40 th of a pt ew   14/1
Fast Tara                                                2 45 Cur/               1/40th of a pt ew    22/1
 
 
P/L   +  177.35pts     

Would you believe that's the hat trick! 
Had a fiver with a 50% odds boost. Shame I didn't roll them over as a treble! 

Scottish National - w'ellhaveyawan 33/1 ew

Scottish National
1.5pt e/w  6 places BOG on both IRON BRIDGE 25/1 &  TOMMIE BEAU 33/1

Wow 
..that was a bit of a head scratcher race ....no where to be seen .... 1.5 PT profit on the day ....it's still more than I started 🤣

Forza Orta                                             7 05 Ths/               1/40th of a pt ew  20/1
Expressionless                                     5 00 Neb/              1/40th of a pt ew   16/1
We'llhavewan                                       3 35 Ayr/               1/40th of a pt ew    44/1
Iron Bridge                                            3 35 Ayr/               1/40th of a pt ew    33/1
Racingbreak Ryder                               3 15 Gw/               1/40th of a pt ew    36/1
First Street                                             2 25 Ayr/               1/40 th of a pt ew   14/1
Fast Tara                                                2 45 Cur/               1/40th of a pt ew    22/1
 
 
P/L   +  177.35pts     

B/Fwd L15's -62.62, RC P/L - 91.52
Had 3 0.10 L15's on the Daily = 4.50 points
2.25 Ayr Favour  And FOrtune 1 pt win at 5/1 and Fromt street 0.50 win at 11/1
= 6 points staked for 12 races of entertainment.
Good luck to all; it's a busy day
 

150 A Donny Boy 14/1 ew  1/5 4 places bet365
Racingpost Top speed 
First time cheek pieces:  Alexander 1/4 ( 25%) p1 this year. 
Alexander is 21% at track this year +24
56% in getting a place ( inc. 4 places ) in all handicaps this year. 
 

Forza Orta                                             7 05 Ths/               1/40th of a pt ew  20/1
Expressionless                                     5 00 Neb/              1/40th of a pt ew   16/1
We'llhavewan                                       3 35 Ayr/               1/40th of a pt ew    44/1
Iron Bridge                                            3 35 Ayr/               1/40th of a pt ew    33/1
Racingbreak Ryder                               3 15 Gw/               1/40th of a pt ew    36/1
First Street                                             2 25 Ayr/               1/40 th of a pt ew   14/1
Fast Tara                                                2 45 Cur/               1/40th of a pt ew    22/1
 
 
P/L   +  177.35pts     

Forza Orta                                             7 05 Ths/               1/40th of a pt ew  20/1
Expressionless                                     5 00 Neb/              1/40th of a pt ew   16/1
We'llhavewan                                       3 35 Ayr/               1/40th of a pt ew    44/1
Iron Bridge                                            3 35 Ayr/               1/40th of a pt ew    33/1
Racingbreak Ryder                               3 15 Gw/               1/40th of a pt ew    36/1
First Street                                             2 25 Ayr/               1/40 th of a pt ew   14/1
Fast Tara                                                2 45 Cur/               1/40th of a pt ew    22/1
 
 
P/L   +  177.35pts