btugero

@LeMale cheers! It was my only winner in an ew lucky 15 - one other placed horse which was @btugero nap (thanks!). I could have really done with your 2nd as well but put my bet on earlier. And no excuses for missing @Tedthewolfas thats is exactly the horse i prefer and it was great tipping. I've had one of those days - positive returns but have even managed to pick a couple of shorter priced winners and then not actually backed them ( as you can't back them all). To be fair if Benefit North had been priced at 20/1 this morning my nap selection would have been ew!
Personally I'm finding the racing a little slice of normality during these challenging times. Like you I wish everyone the very best - stay safe and keep healthy.

2.10 Downpatrick
Jimmy Two Times @ 20/1 Bet365

2.10 Downpatrick
Jimmy Two Times @ 20/1 Bet365

Well done winners, and a big thank you to BH for running another awesome PL Competition.

Well done winners, and a big thank you to BH for running another awesome PL Competition.

Well done winners, and a big thank you to BH for running another awesome PL Competition.

Many thanks BillyHills of Southport (used to live there once) for running this competition. Would like to dedicate the win to a close family member who died just recently and who we say farewell to this Tuesday.

Day 4
Final Leaderboard
First of all many thanks for supporting another exciting competition, 120 players is a top effort
Mully's 50/1 winner turned out to be the key despite Vangovin's late flourish.
Gray306 completes the podium and the prizes are as follows: 
£60: Mully + PL Merchandise?
£25: Vangovin + PL Merchandise
£15: Gray306 + PL Merchandise
Send Name & Address , PL name, Prize being claimed to;
[email protected]
 
Table: Any probs let me know ASAP.
 

 
 
 

@BillyHills
Good job.  No messing about.  Debates an idea.  Implements. 

I think the new proposals should keep all types of player happy enough
The punter who goes for the long shot will still scoop the top prize (if successful) The punter who likes to pick shorter priced winners can aim for Cup qualification and the amount of winners prize Those who just miss out still have 2nd, 3rd and 4th money to play for. Those having a weak month will still have the top 25 to aim for, for a place in the Cup. Those on the borderline of Cup qualification will need to play until later in the month which stops the negativity that sometimes creeps in. Those that just miss out on the Cup will get a prize for finishing runners up. This thread has been viewed over 300 times and I guess those who wanted to say something has said something.
 
Thanks for your feedback.
I propose to introduce the new format at the beginning of April, which means the qualification for the Cup will be as normal in March.
From April 1st
Winner : £60
Second : £30
Third : £20
Fourth: £10
Highest Amount of Winners with min £10 Profit : £20
(if level, most profit will win, then S/R)
Cup Winner: £30
Cup Runners Up: £10
Top 25 only to qualify for Cup.
 

I wouldnt go as far as that ( )
SR is the inverse of amount of winners and vica versa
31 is a prime number so you wouldnt get an integer so lets go for 30
As for strike rate of 20% over 30 days gives you 6 winners & 6 winners over 30 days gives you 20%
the easiest way to see who is the best  (or better) tipster would be to take the actual v expected sr
If you sum the actual winning bets and divide by the total sum of the inverse of odds  then this will give you a comparison figure you could use
IE
If 2 players played the same bets and Player A hits above the expected winners he gets a rating of 62% above standard ( obviously the standard would be 1 act winners = expected winners)
Where as the player B who only hits the hail mary gets a rating of -68% showing its more luck than good judgement as hes not hitting the expected amount of winners for the odds played.
Player A Profit = 4.98pts   Player A w/l w l l l l w w w w l   actual winners 5 odds 2.50 3.00 1.50 5.00 67.00 2.50 4.50 3.00 2.38 11.00   expected winners 3.08 inverse 40% 33% 67% 20% 1% 40% 22% 33% 42% 9%   A/E 62%                               Player B Profit = 57pts   Player B w/l l l l l w l l l l l   actual winners 1 odds 2.50 3.00 1.50 5.00 67.00 2.50 4.50 3.00 2.38 11.00   expected winners 3.08 inverse 40% 33% 67% 20% 1% 40% 22% 33% 42% 9%   A/E -68% That is just an extreme example
but if you use the highest S/R and achieving a £10 profit as the qualifier you would then be able to use the above method to decide on the better tipster from those qualifiers.

Better example (if two players draw both with 50% sr & 10.88 profit but different odds) Player A is the better player
    Player A Profit = 10.88pts   Player A w/l w w l l l w w w w l   actual winners 6 odds 2.50 6.00 1.50 5.00 4.00 2.50 4.50 3.00 2.38 11.00   expected winners 3.15 inverse 40% 17% 67% 20% 25% 40% 22% 33% 42% 9%   A/E 90%                               Player B Profit = 10.88pts   Player B w/l l w l w w w l l w w   actual winners 6 odds 2.50 6.00 1.50 4.00 4.00 2.50 4.50 3.00 2.38 2.00   expected winners 3.61 inverse 40% 17% 67% 25% 25% 40% 22% 33% 42% 50%   A/E 66%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

Spot on BH.
Also a prize for tipster with most winners picked and profit over £10...

Proposals 
As promised is the tables thread I am looking at ways to reward the more consistent players and also ways to keep up the interest to the end of the month.
I find that clear leaders sit on their profit and players attempting to qualify for the Cup are doing the same which leads to many players not picking selections in the last couple of days or more.
Just to be clear I have no feelings one way or another on how players go about approaching the competition, we all have our own way of betting, we just want everyone to feel they have something to play for.
I have noticed over the last few months some rumblings about the way players approach the Naps competition and there is no doubt we have had a shift in more players going for the speculative outsider than we have before.
I had a look at the figures and we are regularly hitting around the 19% S/R these days where as before we were often around the 25% mark. This is totally down to more players going for 25/1+ selections.
The players who genuinely sift through the cards to find their best bet of the day feel as though they have no chance in winning the monthly competition. I can see once a player has hit a 50/1 winner just playing for a Cup place is not the best of incentives.
I think we can reward performance and profit and have been looking at the last 12 months figures to see how we can do it.
At first I thought it would be best just to award the player with the highest strike rate a percentage of the winners prize but I also don't think encouraging people to select 1/4 shots everyday is helping anyone, so taking that a step further, what about if we had a profit figure that you needed to surpass as well?
If we say took the highest strike rate of those that made a profit in the month of at least £10 that would kill off any ideas of odds on shots every single day. Of course you would expect some short priced horses to be chosen and I have no problem with that, if its a Nap, its a Nap but by having the £10 figure it really rewards those that have performed well that month.
I have done a couple of tables to show how it would have panned out since January 2019 up until last month. Interestingly just 2 winners of the comp came out with the best S/R. 8 players were in the top 4 cash prizes but it would have given 7 players a prize that wouldn't have normally received anything. I would say overall that suits most type of punter. Of course people may bet differently knowing about the new prize.
In the second table i took away the upper profit limit and this highlighted the problem of players sitting on a small profit just to qualify for the Cup, I feel this would just get worse if there was a prize for the highest S/R only.
I propose a prize of £20 for player with the highest SR that has at least £10 profit on the month. This prize may well go to a player in the top 4 already but the winner of the whole competition will still quite rightly win the most cash whatever the result.
The second part of the new formula is to limit the amount of players qualifying for the Cup. At the minute anyone finishing in profit (or even, lol) gains automatic qualification into the following months KO Cup. This can be as many as 30+ players and this often leads to a few players reaching a profit figure and then stopping posting for last few days of the month, or even worse players reaching 15 bets and then just stopping. 
If we had a figure of 25 players only to qualify for the Cup then it would make it more exciting and something to aim for in the final few days of the month. I will also award a runners up prize for the KO Cup which has been asked for in the past.
I am not looking to change any of the main rules of the comp, i think we should keep the main core of what the comp is all about ie; picking one horse per day. So we wont be changing that or messing about with stakes etc.....
Let me know if you think this would be a way forward, please bare in mind we have a budget and we want to keep things simple.
 
Proposals as from April 1st
Winner : £60
Second : £30
Third : £20
Fourth: £10
Highest S/R with min £10 Profit : £20
Cup Winner: £30
Cup Runners Up: £10
Top 25 only to qualify for Cup.
 
Table of those with the highest S/R and achieving a £10 profit 

 
 
Table of those with the highest S/R, no upper limit on profit
Those in grey did not make the £10 profit mark.

 

All newcomers in here, Please read the rules.
@btugero @Fabiano Cordeiro @justinway @GrandDanois @swasya @Thiagomrib
@Nosey-P @G3nt1 @Craggwood @Ulrik @Wivz_03 @Baracca @Power90
@Andrew davies @Wtrylika @Valverde @yullenkosi @Superscrumpy
 

5.05 Clonmell
Misty Addage @ 3/1 Bet365

New Last Man Standing Comp starts this Saturday
£250 Cash Prize
 
 

Congratulations to all winners. Thanks BH for all admin work.

Congratulations to all winners. Thanks BH for all admin work.

With the ever changing landscape of the bookmaking industry it is becoming very confusing to some on which bookmakers we can use and which bookmakers allow BOG, and from which time it is allowed.
We have decided to narrow the choice of bookmakers and to allow BOG with all selections posted in the competition regardless of time. This will make it much easier for both players and me when settling the bets.
From March 1st the rules regarding bookmakers we use will be as follows;
The only 5 bookmakers allowed in the competition are;
Bet365 Paddy Power/Betfair (same prices) Betvictor William Hill Betfred Any selections posted with any other bookmaker will be settled at SP
 
Many thanks
 

5.30 Chelmsford
Bint Dandy @ 20/1 SkyBet

5.30 Chelmsford
Bint Dandy @ 20/1 SkyBet

5.30 Chelmsford
Bint Dandy @ 20/1 SkyBet

Porto - Braga     19:00h in Portugal
Porto have won 13 of their 16 games in the Portuguese top-flight, including a 2-0 win at their title rivals. In recent games, they have won six and drawn one of their last seven games in the Primeira Liga.
Only Benfica have scored more goals than the home team this season. Their prolific form in front of goal was been on full show of late, as Porto have scored at least two goals in four of their last five league outings.
Porto have been simply formidable on home soil in the Primeira Liga, winning their last 12 league games at the Estadio Do Dragao.
Pepe central defender and Nakajima midfielder are out for the game today.
Braga they need to win points  to go to Europa League . They are currently five points outside the top-four in the Portuguese top-flight.
They had a new coach in 2 games they won both , but is a coach without experience very young .
So Porto is forbidden to loose points because they´re on second place 4 points behind the leader Benfica,  and i think they will win for 2 goals or more.
Porto to win  @ 1.66   ( bookmaker in Portugal i don´t know odds on bet365 because we portugueses are forbiden  yes it´s true to bet on bet 365 )
Sporting - Benfica   21.15h in Portugal
Sporting is my team and tonight as a supporter i´ll be there but without any confidence.  Sporting are 16 points behind Benfica on 4 th place i hate the coach i hate the president and tonight central defender from Sporting , uruaguay international Coates is out  from the game suspended du red card on last game. Also argentinian player and very good player for me the 2 nd best behind Bruno Fernandes , Luciano Vietto is injured and out also .
 
Benfica have been strong away from home in recent months, winning their last 16 league games on their travels in the Primeira Liga.
The visitors are currently four points clear of rivals Porto at the top of the table, having won 15 of their 16 league games so far this season. Their only blip was a 2-0 defeat against their title rivals in August.
For me tonight e see easy victory for Benfica maybe for 2 or more goals and i don´t understand the odds 1.96 for Benfica victory is crazy for me 1.40 for Benfica it was fair.
 
Benfica to win @ 1.96   ( bookmaker in Portugal i don´t know odds on bet365 because we portugueses are forbiden  yes it´s true to bet on bet 365 )
 
 

Benfica v Aves
Very pleased with the signing of Julian Weigl and i hope he will be one the start up team later today.
All I hope is Benfica to continue their winning run in the league and to score many goals showing everyone why they have the best attack and defense of Liga NOS.
 
Over 4.5 goals @ 23/10 BetVictor
 

Vitoria Setubal v Sporting Lisbon
Just want to see what will happen here. Setubal asked Sporting to postpone the match due to several players having the flu, and they refused.
They will do their best to avoid defeat.
 
Setubal +1,5 @ 21/20 Bet365