Bubbles180
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Posts
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Posts posted by Bubbles180
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23 minutes ago, Birchy said:
Forgive my stupidity, but what is IV and ELLR?
As you are a fellow betfair user, have you tried laying <= 4/1 and backing everything else?
IV = Impact Value
This is if the value is below 1.00 then the selections are running below expectation and a loss is more common, if above then they are running above expectation and should make a profit.
ELLR = Estimated Longest Losing Run
This estimates the longest losing run basec on the current strike rate and updates based on that figure.
Im not a big layer of horses but yes i do lay the odds on sometimes, I dont back all selections as a huge bank would be required i do back thsm using my own filter systems.
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10 minutes ago, Bubbles180 said:
14.25 Plump Money For Nothing 8.00 2nd
15.40 Heref Houblon Des Obeaux 7.50 3rd
16.40 Heref Sir Jack Yeats 7.003rdPlace Return £ 121.43
P&L £101.43
P&L to date +£104.88
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4 hours ago, Bubbles180 said:
£10 Each Way Treble 420/1
14.25 Plump Money For Nothing 8.00
15.40 Heref Houblon Des Obeaux 7.50
16.40 Heref Sir Jack Yeats 7.00Win Return £4200.00
Place Return £ 121.43
14.25 Plump Money For Nothing 8.00 2nd
15.40 Heref Houblon Des Obeaux 7.50 3rd
16.40 Heref Sir Jack Yeats 7.003rdPlace Return £ 121.43
P&L to date +£104.88
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Sir Jack Yeats looks good for today
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another just touched off was well backed as well into EVS
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£10 Each Way Treble 420/1
14.25 Plump Money For Nothing 8.00
15.40 Heref Houblon Des Obeaux 7.50
16.40 Heref Sir Jack Yeats 7.00Win Return £4200.00
Place Return £ 121.43
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16.40 Heref Sir Jack Yeats 7.00 Bet365
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15 hours ago, Xtc12 said:
Burrenbridge Hotel 13.40 Sedgefield 1 Pt Win @ 13\8 (bog)
Improving in leaps and bounds over fences, supplementing his Hereford success in facile fashion at Taunton (2m) last month. Handicapper had his say but respected nonetheless.
Ballyward 14.50 Naas 1 Pt Win @ 11\8 (bog)
Promising individual. Fourth of 10 in novice hurdle at Leopardstown (20f, soft, 6/4) on hurdles bow 30 days ago, going with enthusiasm. Sets a solid standard.
Unlucky today good winner and close 2nd
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20 hours ago, Bubbles180 said:
15.10 Sedg Dica 9/2 BET365 As this was a NR can I move on to 15.40 Sedg Wazowski 11/4 BET365 please
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15.10 Sedg Dica 9/2 BET365 -
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@evertorial hi their
Looking at the NAP SELECTIONS put up each day Since 01/08/17 since records have been kept the difference between the advised/BOG odds and Betfair SP have been approx 0.60 pt in favour of Betfair SP so betting on the exchanges is better on the most part by my claculations around 76% of selections are higher on Betfair SP than BOG.
I back the NAPS both on BOG and Betfair and have just done some quick calcs based on my own returns.
Hope this helps, I would assume it would be the same on any selections backed from here.
For example today i backed
12.55 Donc Slanelough 6.50 BOG
12.55 Donc Slanelough 6.70 BFSP
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2 minutes ago, WiggoBets said:
Been a great day for this thread so far
and we got 4 of the 5 ousiders in the 3.15 donny
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18 hours ago, WiggoBets said:
2.25 Cheltenham - Not the most the competitive race of the day but still a high quality chase nonetheless. Bristol De Mai currently a solid favourite, however favourites (including joint and co.) have a poor record in this race with a record of 3-24. 9/10 previous winners were aged 8 or 9 thus another negative for Bristol De Mai. 17 of the last 24 winners have been between 2nd fav and 5th fav. in the betting, with the majority of winners returning at 8/1 or lower. Horses that have won last time out have a respectable strike rate in this race at 24% .This gives the edge to Definitly Red though The Last Samuri and Tea for two have good profiles as well.
Nice one @WiggoBets great winner, so right about the Fav
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will look for you may take a day or 2 are you looking at all selections, Naps Selections or the 4/1+ (which is my system)
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3.15 Doncaster
Mustmeetalady 22/1
Federici 28/1
Coologue 18/1
Minella On Line 40/1
Pilgrims Bay NR
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Tote returns
Ex: £78.40
CSF: £67.27
Tricast: £473.29
Trifecta: £690.10
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@evertorial this gives you and idea of what we do as a community obviously we dont always have good days like this but when we get days like this it is really worth it, hope you were on one or all of these
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Bewtween us all we had 3 selections for the 1.50 Cheltenham
1. Frodon
2. Shantou Flyer
3. Kings Odyssey
Please let me know if anyone had the Fcast or Tricast
Ok roll on the 3.15 Doncaster Im on all the selections and Fcast and Tricasts
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On 26/01/2018 at 1:42 PM, Trotter said:
bloddy hell mate hope you had the fcast as well (I went for Shantou Flyer DOH)
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Hi glad you have joined the best site on the net, Would you be really worried if the prices were not exactly as they are advised here, some days I miss the price and take a slightly lower price, If i bet on Exchanges I usually put the advised price in as the price i want and if I dont get it I will take SP, most times theirs not a huge difference, but what I want to say is would it make a difference on the SP if you are backing winners, yes I can see that your profit would be lower compared to advised prices but thats part of being involved in a great site, have a good look and make your decision but I dont think you will go wrong backing some of these selections, also look at some of the members posts on their systems you may find some little nuggets around.
Good Luck to you and we are all here to help
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11 hours ago, Bubbles180 said:
Apples shakira 12.40 chelt 1.16
Kemboy 1.05 fhouse 1.90
Sceau Royal 1.30 Donc 1.36
£20 Win treble 3.02 bet365
YEH winning treble
Apples shakira 12.40 chelt 1.16 BOG WON
Kemboy 1.05 fhouse 1.90 BOG WON
Sceau Royal 1.30 Donc 1.50 SP WON
£20 Win treble 3.36 Returned £67.20 P&L £47.20
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my bets for today
1.50 Cheltenham Shantou Flyer 12/1
3.15 Doncaster Mustmeetalady 22/1
Double 298/1
£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted · Edited by Bubbles180
Hi guys have been following this since Billy started so thought would run a table for people to see how they would be doing, might not be 100% accurate with all the different bets and have placed each bet seperate so if doing a pacepot of 16 lines that becomes 16 bets and wins are amount of individual bets won, ie 16 lines 2 winning lines is 2 win bets so on.
Hope im as close as can be.