Stats, stats, stats...

[jayalexander]

A raceform book I'm reading at the moment claims that beaten favourites outperform favourites, so I decided to test the theory. A 2008 & 2009 check on massey resulted in 91.6% (2008) & 92.5% (2009) ROI on favs and 84.5 & 85.9 returns on beaten favs. I also checked flat and jumps seperately, and the findings astonished me - the only strike rate with a swing of more than 1% between the two years was jump favs (31.4% and 33.8%)! The whole thing has made me think a bit like the late Dick Francis during his writing days! I know it's only two years that are being compared but it does seem a bit significant to me that the strike rate figures are so close.

[Trotter]

Re: Stats, stats, stats... I'd be surprised if beaten favourites out-perfomed favourites only because there will be numerous races with more than one BF.........and only one of them can win !