Best Bet of The Day 16th of September

[Aidymac]

Bravely - Ayr 2:50 I like the chances of this horse tomorrow. It is well drawn, has hit form, trainer is in form and should have a decent chance of making it 2 wins from its last 2 runs here. It has a great draw again tomorrow in Stall 16. Coincidentaly it won its last race from Stall 16 last time out at Newcastle. From this stall it should be able to grab the favoured stand-side rail and thats usually the place to be. It is dropped in trip tomorrow to 5 furlongs from 6 but i think that is no problem at all and could be actually an advantage as in its last run over 6 furlongs it picked up really well on the 4th furlong so if it picks up very well again 1 furlong out over 5 tomorrow it will be a tough nut to crack. Even though it is up 6 pounds for its latest success, i feel myself it is still on a very leniant mark. It runs iff a mark of 61 tomorrow but won off a mark of 72 last year so is still 11 pounds better off from that win which is substantial. The ground tomorrow is a forecast Good (good to soft in places) and this should be no problem as it has won on good to soft, good and good to firm ground!! When David Allan ride the horse it has a record of 1 Win - 2 Places - 4 Unplaced so he does fairly well on the horse and is the stable's top jockey. The trainer has been in cracking form this season also which is a plus. My summarisation is that Bravely will try to get the stands-side rail where the advantage is and 1 furlong out it should make a winning challenge off what is still a leniant mark. Has conditions to suit and is in form and there is a forecast 19 runners tomorrow which means there should be 4 places on offer so i feel is an e/w bet to nothing. Personally i would rate Argentine as the biggest danger to my selection 1 Point win @ 6/1 (Hills) BOG

[BKI Punter]

Re: Best Bet of The Day 16th of September 4:20 Ayr Caldercruix 3.5pt win - 9/1 (Bet365 - bog) Really like the look of this one at a decent price. Is the only confirmed front runner in the field so could gain a rather soft lead and have things his own way. Is a lightly raced 3yo with 8 starts to his name. Has won two of those, which were his first attempts in handicap company. Won off an initial mark of 71, and then 79. Followed that up with a good second behind the smart Monterosso. Finished down the field in two competitive big field handicaps but that doesn't put me off at all. His draws in those races weren't great and in those big fields a good draw is usually crucial. His small field (8 or less) form reads 112 and Spencer has been in the saddle for all three of those. He has been lowered to a handicap mark of 90 after the last two efforts and he should fare well off that. He did pull 2 lengths clear of the rest of the field when behind Monterosso. Spencer has an 18% strike-rate for this trainer this year, with 6 wins from 34 which isn't too bad. The stable aren't exactly firing but they are running consistently enough. In this field I don't think the horse should be bigger than 5/1 so it'll be interesting to see if there's any support tomorrow.