Flat Racing 16th of September

[Aidymac]

Bravely - Ayr 2:50 I like the chances of this horse tomorrow. It is well drawn, has hit form, trainer is in form and should have a decent chance of making it 2 wins from its last 2 runs here. It has a great draw again tomorrow in Stall 16. Coincidentaly it won its last race from Stall 16 last time out at Newcastle. From this stall it should be able to grab the favoured stand-side rail and thats usually the place to be. It is dropped in trip tomorrow to 5 furlongs from 6 but i think that is no problem at all and could be actually an advantage as in its last run over 6 furlongs it picked up really well on the 4th furlong so if it picks up very well again 1 furlong out over 5 tomorrow it will be a tough nut to crack. Even though it is up 6 pounds for its latest success, i feel myself it is still on a very leniant mark. It runs iff a mark of 61 tomorrow but won off a mark of 72 last year so is still 11 pounds better off from that win which is substantial. The ground tomorrow is a forecast Good (good to soft in places) and this should be no problem as it has won on good to soft, good and good to firm ground!! When David Allan ride the horse it has a record of 1 Win - 2 Places - 4 Unplaced so he does fairly well on the horse and is the stable's top jockey. The trainer has been in cracking form this season also which is a plus. My summarisation is that Bravely will try to get the stands-side rail where the advantage is and 1 furlong out it should make a winning challenge off what is still a leniant mark. Has conditions to suit and is in form and there is a forecast 19 runners tomorrow which means there should be 4 places on offer so i feel is an e/w bet to nothing. Personally i would rate Argentine as the biggest danger to my selection. £10 e/w @ 6/1 (Hills) BOG, 1/4 odds first 4

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 16th of September Ingleby King - Wolverhampton 8:55 There are a few factors as to why i like this horse tomorrow. Its last run i thought was eye-catching so the step up in trip should suit, is well drawn, significant jockey booking and the horse is fairly unexposed so has a lot going for it. Over a mile at Wolverhampton there is a slight draw advantage for the inside stalls so this horse is in Stall1 tomorrow and has no excuses from that pitch if breaking on terms. Its last run was very eye-catching for me. It ran over 7 furlongs last time out at Newcastle but to me it looks like it needs tomorrows step up to a mile, i feel it found the 7 furlongs a tad too sharp as it stayed on very well to take 3rd but the race was over before it got going. The extra furlong tomorrow is a major plus in my opinion. It runs off a mark of 55 tomorrow, the same mark as its last run so it is fairly well treated. Before the blinkers were put on it had very poor form its first few runs, but it has had the blinkers on the past 2 races and it has finished 3rd on both them outings so it is fair to make the presumption that the blinkers have brought improvement out of the horse. Jim Crowley is a significant jockey booking tomorrow. Its his first time taking the ride on this horse and he is a talented jockey who is having a great year for the in-form Beckett yard. My reckoning is that the horse is improving, it is well drawn, the step up in trip will suit, the jockey booking is good and if handling the surface it should definately make its presence felt. I would rate Desert Falls as my main danger. £10 e/w @ .................

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 16th of September Wow wow wow, very interesting. European Dream is the name of the horse i won my most substantial sum of money from a few years back in a huge handicap at Newcastle, something like 28 runners that day.. Anyways it was with Richard Guest and i see it has its first run for Richard Fahey tomorrow and Hanagan is on board in the Ayr 4:20... This is very significant and this is a classy animal that i feel hasnt been given the best oportunity to succeed with the Guest stable. I feel the Fahey stable will be getting the best tune out of this animal and im getting excited cos i know a win is just around the corner with it!! :cow It probably wont win tomorrow but it is one to keep a very close eye on

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Flat Racing 16th of September Kempton 7.25 Beneath 25-1 Tissue (0.5pt ew) Beneath doesn't look like it could touch anything in this field from the outside,however it does have excuses for many of its runs,for example last time out was way too far for it,(14f in a class 3 race).I would say even 12f is too far for this one,9-10 furlongs looks like it's optimum. However in its previous run over 12f on the poly track at wolves it did post a good time considering it faded in the last furlong.In fact its record on the polytrack is very good..Its record over C&D is also decent, 21..Those two races where in its debut days earlier in the year,losing out to 4-9 fav Gumb over C&D on its debut,that was a decent result as gumb has since went on to run class 2 & 3 level. In its second race,again over C&D it won as 4-9 favourite beating the likes of lady eclair who of course as we know went on to win class 1 races albeit at much longer trips.. Since that it has raced respectively ,in class 3 & 4 races racing 3 lengths of the handy spanish duke and is very consistant..gets back to the aw now,over its optimum trip where it appears to enjoy,and if the price opens up at 20-1+ then a small ew bet is in order.. :nana [url=http://www.attheraces.com/form.aspx?id=2588572&ref=cardodds&dte=2010-09-15&refsite=]

[markmywords]

Re: Flat Racing 16th of September I'm off to Pontefract today so here are my initial thoughts I respect CD winners here. Can only get current prices at betfair 14:30 Dickie Le Davoir - Is one that is held up and finishes like a train LTO ran 7F jockey realised it wasn't happening and therefore never gave a thorough finish time before mud throwing everywhere and did't have chance to dig in. Is a double CD winner here winning a class 3 with Spencer on top his ideal horse today a class 5. 0.5 win 9.2 0.5 place 3.05 15:00 Barnet fair - Have not got a clue about maiden races enjoy Michael Bell yard but I think Yarmouth is where he is concentrating therefore I shall go for the Guest Norton combo that got me a 100/1 shot and unlucky head from a 28/1 place yesterday.0.5 140/1 win 0.5 11/1 place 15:30 Dabbers Ridge - Another CD winner who has 4 wins and 3 places from last 8 runs had to go to the wide oudside LTO and still finished 3rd.Tudhope enjoys coming late with his horse. 0.4pt 8.2 win 0.4 3.3place 16:00 Sioux Rising - Twice tried at CD and won twice once at clas 3 will have to break from the stalls early and take a prominent run but with McHugh as a 3lb claimer level to last CD win 0.8pt 9.8 win and 0.8 at 3.33 16:30 Ultimate Quest - Not a strong view here but Sir Mark Prescott stables has 10 winners and 3 places from 15 and a 41.5%place rate here is just sending this one up and a good prominent rider with Sousa I shall go win 1pt at 3.3

[punterpete]

Re: Flat Racing 16th of September 3.50 Ayr Celtic Change ew @9/1 Bet365 Genuine front running type who won at Beverley on good to firm back in May and has been placed three times since. Went up 6lbs fo the Beverley win but runs off the same mark of 85 today as the last 3 placed runs. Is likely to try and make all but the only concern is fitness as he has been off the course for 51 days other wise would have been a win bet rather than each way. 4.20 Ayr Northside Prince win @ 7/2 William Hill Ben Coolen ew @ 18/1 Bluesq Northside Prince - Been in fantastic form this season and is going for a four timer today and three on the bounce at Ayr. Looks to be developing into a course and distance specialist and can take this despite the 5lb rise for the last win. Ben Coolen - You always take your chances with this one. looked back to his best when dead heating with Jonny Lesters Hair at Beverley but then flopped last time out at Newmarket. Looks over priced in this field on the best of his form and could be an each way good thing if the field remains 8 strong. 4.30 Pontefract Winged Farasi ew @ 16/1 Stan James Win over hurdles at Sedgefield was step in the right direction and a step up in trip on the flat and could work today. 5.20 Ayr Lord Aeryn Win @ 10/3 Stan James Won twice as a two year old but did get not the best of things on his seasonal debut at Carlisle. Will come on for that run and is upped in trip today and should be able to build on last years promise. 5.30 Pontefract Carlitos Spirit ew @ 20/1 Coral The handicapper took him to task with a massive hike in the ratings following his win at Beverley back in July. Is still 10 lbs higher today than that but with conditions in his favour still looks competitive at a price. 7.25 Wolverhampton Beneath ew @ 20/1 Stan James Not been in the best of form this season on the turf. But a return to the course and distance of his maiden win back in March and with cheek pieces fitted and the exellent Amy Ryan in the saddle could see him spark for the first time since moving yards.

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing 16th of September 4.40 Yarmouth Several non runners have weakened this considerably and it makes it look attractive for Activate to continue his steady progression but on softer ground than ideal he is probably worth taking on at his current price! And Swiss Act looks a massive price at 10/1 for the johnston yard who are still going well at the moment has been seen since finishing 3rd behind Chiberta king at Newmarket and on that evidence should have a good say in this event where stamina is gonna be key and he has plenty of it. Goes well fresh in the past. 0.5pt win Swiss Act 10/1 bet365 5.10 Yarmouth Bravo Bravo has made a mockery of his handicap mark since switched to this trip and helooks all about stamina, he won both handicap starts very easil on soft turf first time and polytrack last time. Handicapper giving him a real chance only raisng him 5lb for his latest 2length win and certainly open to plenty of improvement in ideal conditions. Stable also in good form. 1pt win bravo bravo 5/1 sj 3.50 Ayr Arabian Spirit had been threatening to run a big race before doing so last time out over CD quite comfortably, handicapper could have taken a stronger vew on the race than he has as 6lb rise looks fair enough, still looks well handicapped having placed in much better race than this last year off a 9lb higher mark. Goes extremely well on softer conditions and Hanagan full of confidence now. 0.5pt e/w arabian spirit 9/2 sj 4.20 Ayr Northside Prince finally got his head in front this season after threatening so many times last season and hasnt looked back since winning 3 on the trot and goes for the 4 timer today, up a furhter 5lb for latest win but his attitude in a finish is brilliant sticking his neck out to the line and form of that race working out well with 2nd place winning next time out off a 4lb higher mark and 4th winning next time out off same mark. Has run well in the past on softer going but isnt completely proven hence the reason of a slightly cut back stake! 0.5pt win northside prince 7/2 vc 5.55 Wolverhampton Oh lovely the first class 7 handicap of the AW season! Like the look of an outsider in this field. Shannon Golden is like most of these lacks consistency but has spent most of the summer running over a furlong to far and steps back in trip tonight back to 6f and only win to date comes over CD and 3lb lower since penultimate start when a well heard 3rd over 7f here. Blinkers refitted again tonight for first time for a while and well drawn. 0.25pt e/w shannon golden 16/1 sj 7.25 Wolverhampton Moobeyn is an interesting runner in this race he has been off the track since his best effort came over this course. Has been gelded since and now takes a step up in trip on handicap debut which on breeding would look to suit with him being related to the useful on his day Keenes Day. A mark of 71 is over burdened considering he beat the very useful Harris Tweed and Boy the Bell. Hughes is an eye catching booking with the trainer/jockey combination having a 27% strike rate. 0.5pt e/w moobeyn 13/2 corals

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing 16th of September 15:50 Ayr I like the Dandy Nicholls trained Keys Of Cyprus in this race. The eight year old looks to be his first string in the race with Adrian Nicholls taking the ride over recent addition to the stable Snow Bay who isn't without chances as well. Keys Of Cyprus has only won at this trip once from 12 attempts but its fair to say he hasn't had his ideal conditions often when running over the trip which is with a bit of cut in the ground. His win over this distance came at Ripon in soft conditions last year off a mark of 76 in a class 4 handicap. Won by half a length but it was a relatively confortable win for him despite the margin suggesting otherwise. All his best runs have been in ground softer than good although he has won on Good and Good To Firm ground as well but his win on GF did come 5 years ago on his racecourse debut. The going is Good To Soft today which will be fine for him but any more rain will be welcomed as the more juice in the ground the better having previously won on Soft and Heavy going. Has a decent enough course record too with the form reading 1-4-1. Won a handicap in 2008 off a mark of 69 and a handicap last season off a mark of 74. Both of these were over 7 furlongs and his 4th placed effort was over todays mile trip, that was on good ground and off a mark of 77 so I would rate his chances better today in ground thats more likely to suit. His 2nd place at Musselburgh back in July off a mark of 83 suggests this mark isn't beyond him and he also stayed on well in his last two runs off a mark of 82 which he runs off of today. The two Fahey horses at the head of the market should be feared and although my selection has form to reverse with Faithful Ruler from the race at Ripon on his penultimate start, I am willing to take the risk despite him giving away an extra 2lbs as I feel the horse will miss the services of Paul Hanagan. Lee Topliss is a very capable jockey and is well worth his 5lb claim and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Fahey's second string on paper win the race as he has every right to be winning the race as Arabian Spirit but more often than not, the jockey gets it right and Hanagan will have had the pick of the rides. 1pt win Keys Of Cyprus @ 7/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[ELCAKER]

Re: Flat Racing 16th of September And George Strawbridge has another winner with Seelo taking the 2nd race at Yarmouth. Did not have a penny on today as I didn't like the drift this morning, but as a rule of thumb, Georgey S's runners in Autumn are worth following ;)

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 16th of September

Bravely - Ayr 2:50 I like the chances of this horse tomorrow. It is well drawn, has hit form, trainer is in form and should have a decent chance of making it 2 wins from its last 2 runs here. It has a great draw again tomorrow in Stall 16. Coincidentaly it won its last race from Stall 16 last time out at Newcastle. From this stall it should be able to grab the favoured stand-side rail and thats usually the place to be. It is dropped in trip tomorrow to 5 furlongs from 6 but i think that is no problem at all and could be actually an advantage as in its last run over 6 furlongs it picked up really well on the 4th furlong so if it picks up very well again 1 furlong out over 5 tomorrow it will be a tough nut to crack. Even though it is up 6 pounds for its latest success, i feel myself it is still on a very leniant mark. It runs iff a mark of 61 tomorrow but won off a mark of 72 last year so is still 11 pounds better off from that win which is substantial. The ground tomorrow is a forecast Good (good to soft in places) and this should be no problem as it has won on good to soft, good and good to firm ground!! When David Allan ride the horse it has a record of 1 Win - 2 Places - 4 Unplaced so he does fairly well on the horse and is the stable's top jockey. The trainer has been in cracking form this season also which is a plus. My summarisation is that Bravely will try to get the stands-side rail where the advantage is and 1 furlong out it should make a winning challenge off what is still a leniant mark. Has conditions to suit and is in form and there is a forecast 19 runners tomorrow which means there should be 4 places on offer so i feel is an e/w bet to nothing. Personally i would rate Argentine as the biggest danger to my selection. £10 e/w @ 6/1 (Hills) BOG, 1/4 odds first 4

Bravely was 3rd @ 11/1.. My big danger Argentine was 2nd @ 12/1. If i had stuck in the favourite, i had the tricast that paid £336. Sigh

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing 16th of September BIG OCCASSION 3.25 Listowel. Place Lay. Shorter than he should be with being from the O'Brien yard, and has also got to improve with the weight he's been given for today. Others do appear more solid and should run their races, so with that in mind and knowing that he needs to improve to be in with a least a chance, I'd much rather be a layer, irrespective of the end result.

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing 16th of September RED PRESENCE 3.20 Ayr. 1 point win. Small field and I think that'll suit us best. The trip and ground's not a worry and so has every chance of turning over the 2 favourites.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Flat Racing 16th of September ROCK MEDLEY 3.25 Listowel. 1 point win. Needs to be at best, but I think he will and does get in off a mark that gives him chances. Trip and ground fine, so should see a big effort.

[markmywords]

Re: Flat Racing 16th of September 16.00 numbers 5 & 7 look the best to me

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing 16th of September

16.00 numbers 5 & 7 look the best to me

Come on mate you know better than that!

[markmywords]

Re: Flat Racing 16th of September Sorry Chris that was my attempt of a paddock pick on the iphone with slow connection. I am obviously shite at it. I come back skint throwing all my collections on Bold Marc in the last just getting to sprint when Seldom got in the way had to change track and the gamble of the day at Pontefract got away(Mason Hindmarsh). Rest of the card Dickie done nothing. Barnet Fair 100/1 4th . Dabbers 3rd, Sioux 4th and Ultimate my only winner.

[ELCAKER]

Re: Flat Racing 16th of September Kempton 7.25 Beneath 25-1 Tissue (0.5pt ew) Beneath doesn't look like it could touch anything in this field from the outside,however it does have excuses for many of its runs,for example last time out was way too far for it,(14f in a class 3 race).I would say even 12f is too far for this one,9-10 furlongs looks like it's optimum. However in its previous run over 12f on the poly track at wolves it did post a good time considering it faded in the last furlong.In fact its record on the polytrack is very good..Its record over C&D is also decent, 21..Those two races where in its debut days earlier in the year,losing out to 4-9 fav Gumb over C&D on its debut,that was a decent result as gumb has since went on to run class 2 & 3 level. In its second race,again over C&D it won as 4-9 favourite beating the likes of lady eclair who of course as we know went on to win class 1 races albeit at much longer trips.. Since that it has raced respectively ,in class 3 & 4 races racing 3 lengths of the handy spanish duke and is very consistant..gets back to the aw now,over its optimum trip where it appears to enjoy,and if the price opens up at 20-1+ then a small ew bet is in order.. The 25's is looking rather tasty now as this horse looks the subject of a major plunge - into 7's as i type this 3 mins before the off - major major :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope

[ELCAKER]

Re: Flat Racing 16th of September the above was of course was The Boy Rooney's work!!

[Spooner]

Re: Flat Racing 16th of September 20:55 W - Belle Park PLACE LAY @ Betfair's SP. Scored a few starts ago but has looked held in previous two starts, especially over this C&D last month. Hard to see where the improvement will come from, had a 5lb claimer on board lto. I think she'll be held again in the last.

[ELCAKER]

Re: Flat Racing 16th of September I am keen to get the fav beaten in the next at Wolves, Godolphin's Qamar. The form of his debut at Folkestone I dont think amounts to much and he was well beaten in 5th. Bryan Smart's Mr Emirati might be the one to take him on with. The 3 year old had one run in his first season and finished 3rd behind Corsica, who himself had had the benefit of 3 previous runs. Waheed kicked off his career with a 3rd place behind Nationalism, albeit beaten a long way, but considering John Gosden's 3 yr old is now favourite for the Cambridgeshire, this form might easily prove good enough tonight. The final horse I want on my side is BArry Hills Danehill Sunset - he has proved pretty consistent and comes into tonight's race with 5 previous runs. I will be doing a combination exacta with the 3 runners mentioned and having a 1 pt e/w on Mr Emirati.

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing 16th of September

Sorry Chris that was my attempt of a paddock pick on the iphone with slow connection. I am obviously shite at it. I come back skint throwing all my collections on Bold Marc in the last just getting to sprint when Seldom got in the way had to change track and the gamble of the day at Pontefract got away(Mason Hindmarsh). Rest of the card Dickie done nothing. Barnet Fair 100/1 4th . Dabbers 3rd' date=' Sioux 4th and Ultimate my only winner.[/quote'] Oh sorry, my apologies just thought you were posting numbers lol! I thought it was unusual for you ;)!