Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs

[b10111]

Friday 10 September 2010	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	St Helens v Warrington Wolves (20:00 BST)	2	23	2.2	99.80 %
	Saturday 11 September 2010	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Huddersfield Giants v Celtic Crusaders (15:45 BST)	1.19	34	6	103.64 %
	Hull FC v Hull KR (18:00 BST)	1.72	25	2.46	102.55 %
	Sunday 12 September 2010	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Wigan Warriors v Leeds Rhinos (18:45 BST)	1.44	24	3.5	102.18 %

Analysis to come later, lets get our picks in early and remember to shout if you smell a potential no bet:dude

[kevshat]

Re: Super League Playoffs Week 1 Edited your post with the odds-comparison odds instead mate. Easier to read. Also renamed the thread. We'll have 1 thread for both sets of playoffs and I'll whack it up as a sticky. Plenty of winners to be had and I'm looking forward to this playoff series like you wouldn't believe :nana.

[b10111]

Re: Super League Playoffs Week 1

Edited your post with the odds-comparison odds instead mate. Easier to read. Also renamed the thread. We'll have 1 thread for both sets of playoffs and I'll whack it up as a sticky. Plenty of winners to be had and I'm looking forward to this playoff series like you wouldn't believe :nana.

Thanks, Im not good at copy and pasting these odds, Im just the brains behind the operation take bookies to the cleaners:dude

[b10111]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs St Helens vs Warrington Wolves pick St Helens outright

One of the tightish playoffs of this weekend.I use the word tight relative to the odds and the fact that a few of my friends believe wire can pull a shock result but for me my judgements are based on the general form of the saints through out the regular season and have been dominant at home.

You have to give Warrington credit they held their nerve against Leeds in the cup Final and did surprise Wigan at home but there are reasons for that, in the game away at Wigan, the home team did miss a few players and its not like Wire ran away with the game and in the final against Leeds they were brilliant, deserved winners but Leeds have been dismal this season.

Both teams have few injury worries and I have followed the Super League season well enough to detect a shock and even though saints can disappoint at times I really believe the outright is certain.

-14.5 Huddersfield Giants vs Crusaders +14.5 pick Huddersfield Giants

In sport nothing is certain and that is the golden rule which we should abide by but there really is no other result other than a Huddersfield win in this fixture.The Crusaders have got their final by merely making the top 8 and although they play whole heartedly with plenty of desire they still lack the players to tactically take down an opponent unless they are complacent which I doubt huddersfield will be especially in a playoff.

Expect a huge score but Im not willing to speculate on the handicap line at the moment. The bookies have got it right and I will only make a decision later tomorrow.

-2.5 Hull FC vs Hull KR +2.5 pick Hull FC

The 2nd tight fixture this week. Its so tight its pointless to talk about the handicap line. The last time these sides met at the same stadium Hull FC won by a single point and I cant see any other result except for a home win. Hull KR have had the more decent end of season form but through out the regular season they have failed to xconvince me especially in the big games as they don’t put enough points on the board so I believe a fired up FC with the right tactics on the day can effectively neutralize them.

-8.5 Wigan vs Leeds +8.5 pick Wigan outright and handicap

The best team in Super League against the under performers of the season. The injuries have also taken its toll on the Yorkshire club and it would be a big upset(bigger than crusader beating Hudds in my opinion) if Leeds win this weekend. I actually think the handicap line is generous and is soley based on Leeds reputation of turning up for the big games but they are desperately short of bodies and they won’t keep Wigan out for 80 minutes.

The only potential upset is Wire beating the Saints or maybe to soime Hull KR trumping Hull FC but Im not convinced Hull KR is a better team than FC and fail to undserstand how they can win the away fixture. Lets sniff out the potential upsets:hope GL

[leespam]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs 3 for me this evening. Looks a 50/50 game to me so think the books have it right with the h’cap (or lack of one! :)). Will look to the sub markets for what I hope to be some value.

Warrington to beat St Helens by 1-12 @ 3.1 (Betfair) 0.5/5 St Helens v Warrington Match Result – Draw @ 25.0 (Betfair) 0.5/5 [With view to lay late on] St Helens v Warrington Half Time Result – Draw @ 13.0 (Various) 0.5/5

Can see this being a real close one tonight. Pryce and Eastmond’s injuries are obviously a big blow for Saints but I can’t help sensing that punters (the majority of the early money has been for Wire) are underestimating this Saints outfit. Saying that, I couldn’t really make a particularly strong case for either side stats-wise, however, one statistic that did stick out for me was the winning margins. In 54 SL fixtures this season, Wire and Saints have only lost by 13 or more in 2, 1 game each. With that in mind and Saints missing their first choice half back pairing, I’ve backed the Wire 1-12. Also, gone for a speculative 24/1 bet on the Draw with a view to laying off late on. Wire have had 4 half time draws away from home this season so had a small bet on the HT draw as 12s as well.

GL all :hope :ok

[Greenhoff]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs

St Helens vs Warrington Wolves pick St Helens outright

One of the tightish playoffs of this weekend.I use the word tight relative to the odds and the fact that a few of my friends believe wire can pull a shock result but for me my judgements are based on the general form of the saints through out the regular season and have been dominant at home.

You have to give Warrington credit they held their nerve against Leeds in the cup Final and did surprise Wigan at home but there are reasons for that, in the game away at Wigan, the home team did miss a few players and its not like Wire ran away with the game and in the final against Leeds they were brilliant, deserved winners but Leeds have been dismal this season.

Both teams have few injury worries and I have followed the Super League season well enough to detect a shock and even though saints can disappoint at times I really believe the outright is certain.

-14.5 Huddersfield Giants vs Crusaders +14.5 pick Huddersfield Giants

In sport nothing is certain and that is the golden rule which we should abide by but there really is no other result other than a Huddersfield win in this fixture.The Crusaders have got their final by merely making the top 8 and although they play whole heartedly with plenty of desire they still lack the players to tactically take down an opponent unless they are complacent which I doubt huddersfield will be especially in a playoff.

Expect a huge score but Im not willing to speculate on the handicap line at the moment. The bookies have got it right and I will only make a decision later tomorrow.

-2.5 Hull FC vs Hull KR +2.5 pick Hull FC

The 2nd tight fixture this week. Its so tight its pointless to talk about the handicap line. The last time these sides met at the same stadium Hull FC won by a single point and I cant see any other result except for a home win. Hull KR have had the more decent end of season form but through out the regular season they have failed to xconvince me especially in the big games as they don’t put enough points on the board so I believe a fired up FC with the right tactics on the day can effectively neutralize them.

-8.5 Wigan vs Leeds +8.5 pick Wigan outright and handicap

The best team in Super League against the under performers of the season. The injuries have also taken its toll on the Yorkshire club and it would be a big upset(bigger than crusader beating Hudds in my opinion) if Leeds win this weekend. I actually think the handicap line is generous and is soley based on Leeds reputation of turning up for the big games but they are desperately short of bodies and they won’t keep Wigan out for 80 minutes.

The only potential upset is Wire beating the Saints or maybe to soime Hull KR trumping Hull FC but Im not convinced Hull KR is a better team than FC and fail to undserstand how they can win the away fixture. Lets sniff out the potential upsets:hope GL

Good stuff. Where've you been all season ? Have to disagree about your lack of enthusiasm for Warrington's win at Wigan, mate. And for that cup final win. The Wire defence broke the Rhino's heart. Lets be honest, they nilled Leeds (the ryan hall try was six feet forward!) Leeds were'nt poor on the day...they just hit a fearsome Warrington wall. Wigan were at full strength, including having their first choice three-quarters on the park, in one of the rare occasions this season. The Warrington win that night can't be under-estimated. What i do remember about that game, were the wet conditions, of which the same is touted for tonight. Errors galore, mainly from the Wire, in the opening stanza. Just my tuppeny's worth. Looking at unders, but with a heavy heart. These two have points in them, all over the park. Warrington's dismal stats v Saints is cringeworthy. But they are narrowing the gap under Smith. Lost at saints in the league, both sides scoring four tries apiece, but wellens' boot ensured the points, kicking 6 from 6. Wire managed 1. This'll be another close 'un. Warrington 1-12 @ 9/4 tempts at the moment, because of the price, but will post any plays before KO.

[b10111]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs

Good stuff. Where've you been all season ? Have to disagree about your lack of enthusiasm for Warrington's win at Wigan, mate. And for that cup final win. The Wire defence broke the Rhino's heart. Lets be honest, they nilled Leeds (the ryan hall try was six feet forward!) Leeds were'nt poor on the day...they just hit a fearsome Warrington wall. Wigan were at full strength, including having their first choice three-quarters on the park, in one of the rare occasions this season. The Warrington win that night can't be under-estimated. What i do remember about that game, were the wet conditions, of which the same is touted for tonight. Errors galore, mainly from the Wire, in the opening stanza. Just my tuppeny's worth. Looking at unders, but with a heavy heart. These two have points in them, all over the park. Warrington's dismal stats v Saints is cringeworthy. But they are narrowing the gap under Smith. Lost at saints in the league, both sides scoring four tries apiece, but wellens' boot ensured the points, kicking 6 from 6. Wire managed 1. This'll be another close 'un. Warrington 1-12 @ 9/4 tempts at the moment, because of the price, but will post any plays before KO.

I agree with you on wire but the thing with me when it comes to outright bets is i look at 2 factors, 1) better team and 2) motivation Now both teams will be motivated because its a playoff but ask yourself are Wire good enough to win an away fixture agauinst an equally motivated team which is possibly better than they are.The answer for me is no, hence my money goes to the Saints, if it was Wigan then it would be a no bet for me. I always look at the way Witre lost twice to Leeds in the regular season, yes they blew leeds of in the final at Wembley but they arent the best travellers GL:hope

[Greenhoff]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs

I agree with you on wire but the thing with me when it comes to outright bets is i look at 2 factors, 1) better team and 2) motivation Now both teams will be motivated because its a playoff but ask yourself are Wire good enough to win an away fixture agauinst an equally motivated team which is possibly better than they are.The answer for me is no, hence my money goes to the Saints, if it was Wigan then it would be a no bet for me. I always look at the way Witre lost twice to Leeds in the regular season, yes they blew leeds of in the final at Wembley but they arent the best travellers GL:hope

Fair enough. Can't argue with even money for Saints to be fair. They're that good, especially on home soil, with thousands screaming "forwarrddd!" at every opponents pass. Big test for the whistle-blower tonight. I always post as a complete neutral, as a fan /observer of the sport. Saints missing Eastmond and Pryce is huge, but their big match pedigree is second to none, as is their dominance of Warrington for the last decade. Saints rumoured to be filling the bench with forwards tonight, in readiness for a stag-fest up the middle. Not often a Saints outfit feel inferior to an opposing backline. Briers was absent from the league defeat, and his involvement is crucial to this wire outfit. The Cullen Warrington is a long way back in time, compared to this side. There's even the possibility, if one team gets a decent double figure lead, the opponent will slacken off in readiness for the 2nd bite of the cherry next week. Something to consider. Whatever... Stevo will be creaming himself laters, and with good reason.:tongue2

[Greenhoff]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs Odds have flip-flopped. :loon Saints at a huge 5/4 with betfred at the minute.

[Greenhoff]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs Leaving the unders..just on the Wire 1-12 @ 9/4 hills. Massive match with the winner to get the home advantage (possibly a repeat of this match) in the semi-final.

[leespam]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs

St Helens vs Warrington Wolves pick St Helens outright

Good shout b10111 :clap

[leespam]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs One for me tonight Wigan (-4) to beat Leeds – Half Time Handicap @ 2.00 (Skybet) Thinking over this I initially thought Leeds could have been the value here. Only 6-0 down at half time in the previous meeting this season; a 37th minute try putting paid to their chances although that being said, they did have plenty of scoring opportunities themselves. They were also injury-ravaged that evening, missing Delaney, Sinfield and Peacock – they will be missing Jones-Buchanan, Clarkson, Burgess and Peacock again tonight as well. On closer inspection however, the statistics suggest Wigan will have the upper hand this evening. Vastly superior half time line records - 18-1-8 to 8-1-18 Overall and 9-1-3 to 5-0-9 Home/Away - Wigan have also cleared a 4 half time deficit in over 65% of their fixtures this season including 3 of their last 4 at the JJB. At full strength tonight and with clear skies predicted, Wigan have been a vastly superior outfit all season so I’m expecting them to go in at the break with more than a 4 point lead tonight. GL all :hope :ok

[Greenhoff]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs Wigan -6 @ 4/5 stanjames. Big on the Pie-eaters tonight. They've faltered in three home games against rival top sides recently, but the season starts here, against a Leeds side that have had a tougher time of things coming into this match. Battered by wire in a sapping cup final, and then struggling to overcome a 12 man Hull outfit last week. Despite recent GF supremacy, they have a poor away record in the playoffs also, winning once from 9. Have lost the last three league games by 20, 14 and 18 to wigan, though they did edge them at Headingley in the CC quarters. The Pies will come out all guns blazing, in their traditional first 40 onslaught. Have kept the opposition pointless in the first half, in 7 of their last 9 games. This is playoff football though, and Leeds will be hungry earlydoors. Draw/Wigan HT-FT @ 25/1 betfred.

[kevshat]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs Really looking forward to the match tonight. 3pts Wigan to win by 1-12pts 2/1 Bet365 I think this is a great price. This is playoff football, not quite knockout football but this is playoff football. The pressure is on tonight and Leeds are as good as anyone in the country under pressure. That said with home advantage and with the form and confidence they have I still expect Wigan to win this game but this is going to be an arm wrestle like no other. Leeds will want to come out all guns firing but the league leaders are as good as there is over the 1st 20 minutes. However there is a chink to their armoury late on. Huddersfield came here and got rolled over for 40 minutes but won the game and Bradford rallied late on last week. I just think this is going to be tighter than a ducks arse and with that in mind I'll take the 2/1 that Wigan win by 2 scores or less.

[TheRat]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs What a game that was! Shame about the result

[kevshat]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs No matter what happens between now and 2nd Oct it's going to take a hell of a match to better that :eek. Pat bloody Richards. Can count on one hand the amount of kicks he misses from in front of the post. Had to be tonight :wall.

[leespam]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs Yeah, was a great game. Gutted for you as well GH :(. Deserved something for predicting the half time result alone :notworthy.

[b10111]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs

Yeah' date=' was a great game. Gutted for you as well GH :(. Deserved something for predicting the half time result alone :notworthy.[/quote'] yeah.........so 27-26 is the shock result of the weekend.I changed my mind on Sunday and took Leeds on the +8.5 handicap but I was certain Wigan would win:\ Rugby sometimes is like football whereby what looks like a certain win can bring about those sickening surprise results.

[Greenhoff]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs

yeah.........so 27-26 is the shock result of the weekend.I changed my mind on Sunday and took Leeds on the +8.5 handicap but I was certain Wigan would win:\ You gotta be fkin kidding ? :rollin Agree with the above posters...awesome match. Do these lads earn their corn or what? Wigan with a shaky 4 home defeats in their last 6. Any Pie-fanciers to win the competition, have a healthy 100/30 at their disposal now! Supreme effort from Leeds, and puts them, along with Saints, in the box seat for the final. Both have home ties in the semi's....but c'mon, would it be a surprise to see them turned over by possibly Wigan and Warrington when those dates arrive?

[Greenhoff]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs Wigan -10 is fair enough. Hanging on for Deacon's fitness, but the 10 will have gone by then tbf. The Pies were rudderless when he went off the other night. Roberts IF returning to fullback with Sam tomkins back in the halves would be a decent improvement. The short turnaround after the Leeds epic is another concern, but a win here probably gives them a return against a McGuireless Rhinos.

[kevshat]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs Deacon ruled out. Something niggling away at me saying this won't be all one way traffic. These 2 matches are what this sport is about. All on the line, no holding back, everything to lose and a huge reward for winning. Bring it on :D.

[Greenhoff]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs

Deacon ruled out. Something niggling away at me saying this won't be all one way traffic. These 2 matches are what this sport is about. All on the line' date=' no holding back, everything to lose and a huge reward for winning. Bring it on :D.[/quote'] I know what you mean mate. A minefield. Wigan v Hull KR. First scoring play, Wigan try @ 10/11 stanjames. Would never forgive myself for letting these odds pass if it romped home. Usually around 1.72 max', can't leave these odds alone. As we saw last week, Wigan especially at home, start like a house on fire, to instil their will on the opponent. Had two tries on the board within 4 minutes against Leeds, and though that was a dream start, their record makes this a must play. They've scored the opening try in 10 of their last 12 matches, with the two 'losers' being pen goals.

[leespam]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs One for me tonight Wigan v Hull KR - Over 48.5 points @ 2.2 (Betfair) 2/5 48.5 seems to be right on the money for these two sides. 48% of Wigan games over this line overall, 54% over at home; 52% of Hull KR games over this line, 50% away from home. Wigan with home advantage and Super League's most proficient back division, the 6/5 minus a bit of commission seems like a touch of value to me. GL all :hope :ok

[kevshat]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs

I know what you mean mate. A minefield. Wigan v Hull KR. First scoring play, Wigan try @ 10/11 stanjames. Would never forgive myself for letting these odds pass if it romped home. Usually around 1.72 max', can't leave these odds alone. As we saw last week, Wigan especially at home, start like a house on fire, to instil their will on the opponent. Had two tries on the board within 4 minutes against Leeds, and though that was a dream start, their record makes this a must play. They've scored the opening try in 10 of their last 12 matches, with the two 'losers' being pen goals.

One for me tonight Wigan v Hull KR - Over 48.5 points @ 2.2 (Betfair) 2/5 48.5 seems to be right on the money for these two sides. 48% of Wigan games over this line overall, 54% over at home; 52% of Hull KR games over this line, 50% away from home. Wigan with home advantage and Super League's most proficient back division, the 6/5 minus a bit of commission seems like a touch of value to me. GL all :hope :ok

Top shouts guys :clap:clap.

[leespam]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs Huddersfield Giants to beat St Helens @ 4.1 (Betfair) 0.25/5 Hudds v St Helens Winning Margin – Hudds by Under 12.5pts @ 4.5 (Betfair) 0.75/5

I’m happy enough to take on St Helens here. As a lot have stated recently, Huddersfield have been the form team in Super League for a number of rounds now. Bar the narrow victory over Brian Noble’s Crusaders; they’ve also cleared their handicap in a high percentage of recent games, winning their last 5 in a row before the playoffs commenced. A total of 19 wins from their 27 regular league fixtures with the 8 start readily available, they also come into this weekend’s game with an unchanged squad – Andy Raleigh and Scott Grix added to the squad but likely to miss out.

St Helens have a less than 50% home win ratio when the handicap has been applied this season (6-0-7) and come into the game with doubts over their young scrum half Kyle Eastmond. He’s broken down in 2 of his returning fixtures from injury this season and although named in the 19; there’s a small chance coach Mick Potter may not take the risk. Even so, I think at over 3/1 Huddersfield represent a touch of value. With the recent play off fixtures also being close, I’ve split a little stake between the 80 minutes and 1-12 margin respectively.

GL all :hope :ok

[League1_punter]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs Thought I would add the Co-Op Championship 1 to this if thats ok. Oldham -6 v York (5/6 StanJames) I've got to admit, although I do enjoy Rugby League, I don't know a lot about it. However I'm going to have a stab at my home town Oldham. These two met in the Play-offs two weeks ago with Oldham running out 41-32 winners. Since then Oldham have had an extra week to prepare for this final with York having to play Blackpool last weekend. In the league the head to heads read 1-1 with Blackpool winning at Oldham 34-28 and Oldham winning at Blackpool 33-18 (this being the later of the two). Oldham is a Rugby League mad town with numerous top players coming from Oldham (Bridge, Eastmond, Sinfield to name a few). I read in the local paper that the Roughyeds have enjoyed bigger home and away attendances that any other club in the league and this is likely to continue with a big following expected for the final. Both teams are at full strength but with the last two meetings going in Oldhams favour, a larger following expected and the extra week to prepare I think (and hope) Oldham are going to win this by hopefuuly more than 6 :hope

[steve1966]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs Saints for me tonight. William hills go 8 start for the Giants but I would still take St Helens. Think the Giants have done excellent to get this far. Watched them last week and 1st half against Wires they were awesome. Almost threw it away in the 2nd until Cudjoe went the full length. IMO Saints are alot more experienced in the really big games. At home as well in what I think is the very last game at Knowsely Rd. Surely they'll want the last game a winning 1. Finally the fact they actually picked Hudds in the club call. Surely they must fancy their chances having picked them although with Leeds and Wigan in there it was the obvious choice:ok

[kevshat]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs Yeah I'm with you Steve but tbh I've not got the balls to lay any cash out on this. I think I like Saints but I'm not sure I'd take any notice of the club call thing because like you say, Huddersfield or Wigan is a no brainer. Last ever game at Knowsley has to come into calculations at some point though for me. Surely it's all set up for Saints to be 4 behind with a minute left and Kieron to go over under the sticks isn't it :drums.

[steve1966]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs You wre almost right Kevshat. Not quite under the sticks but I guess it was always in the script Cunningham getting the last ever try at Knowsley road:D Gonna have a wee punt on the Leeds Wigan game tonight but I think this match could go anywhere. Leeds beat them a couple of weeks ago by a point I think and I think it could very well be as tight again. Just got a sneaky suspicion Wigan might get there revenge but as I want Leeds to win I can't bring myself to put money on Wigan. Might look at the points Market. I think the game itself has the potential for alot of points been scored.:hope

[Greenhoff]

Re: Rugby League: Super League & Co-op Championships Playoffs

Thought I would add the Co-Op Championship 1 to this if thats ok. Oldham -6 v York (5/6 StanJames) I've got to admit, although I do enjoy Rugby League, I don't know a lot about it. However I'm going to have a stab at my home town Oldham. These two met in the Play-offs two weeks ago with Oldham running out 41-32 winners. Since then Oldham have had an extra week to prepare for this final with York having to play Blackpool last weekend. In the league the head to heads read 1-1 with Blackpool winning at Oldham 34-28 and Oldham winning at Blackpool 33-18 (this being the later of the two). Oldham is a Rugby League mad town with numerous top players coming from Oldham (Bridge, Eastmond, Sinfield to name a few). I read in the local paper that the Roughyeds have enjoyed bigger home and away attendances that any other club in the league and this is likely to continue with a big following expected for the final. Both teams are at full strength but with the last two meetings going in Oldhams favour, a larger following expected and the extra week to prepare I think (and hope) Oldham are going to win this by hopefuuly more than 6 :hope

Yep, along with the Wigan area, Oldham has produced the finest talent this side of the Pennines over the years. Really miss Watersheddings despite being the coldest place on earth on matchdays. And thats in the summer. Oldham was the first place in GB where CS gas was first used on a suspect. A rugby league player at that. Can't wait for tonight's offering. Just as well this is'nt in 3D, because this'll be brutal. Discipline the key tonight, given all the bad blood that has gone on between them over the last two weeks. It'd be in wigan's favour if Wiganer, Phil Clarke did'nt do the pitchside report after his distasteful comments about McGuire. The crowd will be pumped enough. Leeds don't do it for me, with Sinfield in the halves. The 5/2 for 1-12 the best Leeds value imo, but i like the Pies in this one.