NRL Finals Week One

[cableguy nz]

Home Team		Result	Away Team		Location
Friday , September 10
	Titans	$1.57 $2.40	Warriors		Skilled Park, Gold Coast	07:45pm
		Bet Now Live Odds
Saturday , September 11
	Tigers	$1.85 $1.95	Roosters		Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney	06:30pm
		Bet Now Live Odds
	Panthers	$1.55 $2.45	Raiders		CUA Stadium, Sydney	08:30pm
		Bet Now Live Odds
Sunday , September 12
	Dragons	$1.14 $5.50	Sea Eagles		WIN Jubilee Oval, Sydney	04:00pm

[b10111]

Re: NRL Finals Week One -4.5 Wests Tigers v Roosters +4.5 pick Tigers win include handicap

okay lets first pick the better team, which I believe on the balance of the season is the Tigers.Now that’s out of the way lets look at whats at stake, if the roosters lose they are out if the raiders or warriors win, but if the tigers lose they get a second bite of the cherry.(Damn I hate these playoff formats)

The Roosters did the double over the Tigers and will make history if it was to happen for the 3^rd time in a season.

Lets look at the positives for the Tigers (1) The Tigers average more points at the SFS, 21.9, than their other home venues.) however the roosters lead 5-3 at the same venue. (2) Discipline could hurt the Roosters – they have conceded 145 penalties in defence, the most by any side such that even if the tigers decide to play it safe they can still put points on the board. (3) The roosters have looked flat recently just edging out the Cowboiys which doesn’t suggest they couypld easily score points even though Shaun Kenny is in lethal form.

Im all for the tigers but Im worried about motivation factor however Benji Marshall showed enough emotion last week after they lost to the Titans.

It will be high scoring so if you go for the outright you may aswell go for the handicap

-14.5 Dragons v Sea Eagles +14.5 pick dragons outright

First of all no buts or ifs, the dragons should win comfortably however the heart breaks of the last few years mean if the gulls turn up they can make it a nervy match. The suspension of Manly centre Steve Matai and prop Jason King is a huge factor as it makes the Dragons overwhelming favorites coupled by the Eagles poor form recently, however the Dragons are a defensive and confidence team and if the eagles were to rack up a few early points it would make their task of surpassing the -14.5 handicap line that much harder as they retreat to their shell.

The outright is certain but take more time debating the handicap line.

-4.5Titans v Warriors+4.5 pick Titans outright I try to avoid games with the Warriors especially when they play away from home as they more often than not pull a rabbit out of a hat. However they are playing the Titans at home, its just too much to resist. I’m all over the outright however lets look at the handicap line. I always prefer to bet on the better team doesn’t matter the conditions as long as Im convinced they will go all out then I pick and wait.I wont bring home form into play here but the truth of the matter is the Titans have played the big matches wekll in the last few rounds there is no reason to be fearful. Motivation wont be a factor. While the McIntyre System generally protects these two sides from elimination, there are certainly no guarantees. If two of the three lower teams manage to jag a win over the weekend, then the loser of this match is history – just like that – it’s all over.

The home side with a fit Scott Prince should edge this but it could be close with the -4.5 handicap surpasable if the Titans can tighten up their defense

-4.5 Panthers v Raiders-4.5 pick Raiders okay first things first the Pathers are the better team on the balance of the season and they deserve to be favourites however all my picks at the top suggest home wins of which if I have to follow my thumb rule the shock has to come in this match. Like the Warriors I hate betting on games with the raiders and they come into this one having won eight of their past nine matches, one of which was against the Panthers.

The panthers are also a nervy team and Panthers coach Matthew Elliott plays his old team which is an advantage for him tactic wise but that only boosts the moptivation of his opposite number.

For me motivation plus better team is the way I always go and home advantage for me this season doesn’t count especially with the Warriors or raiders are involved. This smells like an upset but the stench is so much it actually almost represents a confidence pick. the only problem is the Raiders run has to end at some point but I don’t believe it will be in week 1.

The Handicap is generous but if you like money like me I would also go for the outright:hope