Windsor 28/08

[RussP]

7.10 Windsor With 1 NR declared, we're left with 11 here for this Class 4 handicap over 1m. 4 horses dominate the market but I'm going to oppose them all. Play It Again Sam is in decent nick but all its wins have been all the way wins and I cannot see an uncontested lead for this one off a mark looking a shade high. Kavachi is a hold up type who will the fast pace it needs. However, it's not the most consistent and the time to catch the horse was lto off 5lb lower, I don't feel it will follow up tonight. Autumn Riches is very lightly raced and hails from dangerous connections with top jock on. At 5's though, it looks a little too short in the market as it could go either way. Mingun Bell is the last of the 4 and is the subject of a gamble but isn't the most progressive. Dropped to a lowly mark now and would have been of interest at the early prices but not any more. The one I'm very interested in, mainly from a value perspective, is: Compton Blue (20/1 William Hill) - A Hannon/Hughes horse at Windsor going off at 20's? Add to that it is stables 2nd string in the betting but with stable jockey taking the ride, I'm just even more confused. Nobody rides the course better than Hughesie and the horse is also a C&D winner. Has a win and a 2nd from 2 handicap starts here, both under this jock, make this an odd price. The key to this horse is the jockey, with 3 wins, a 2nd and a 4th from just 5 tries in 8f handicaps. With other jocks up top over the same trip in handicaps, the form reads 0 wins or places from 4 starts, finishing mre than 5L back in each of those. Is just 1lb above last winning mark, 4 starts ago, but since then has gone of the boil. Wouldn't surprise me either if this easier ground suits, given its wins on good ground. The ground might also hinder the chances of the genuine hold up types, whilst the battle for the lead could affect the trailblazers. This one likes to tuck in just behind the leaders and that could be ideal here. Clearly there are negatives, reflected in the price, but there's more than enough to suggest a big, big run.

[bowles10]

Re: Windsor 28/08 just back off my hols and hoping to turn around some poor form startinbg with the 6.10 race at Windsor We all know the hannon/hughes combo is worth a shout round here but SOUL CITY will relish his soft ground having won on it 4 times as a 2yo over 7f. Is definitely capable of making an impact here especially agsainst a variety of horses where there are a few doubts. 16.5 on BF looks too big a price