Hugo Taylor

[erhaab1965]

Re: Hugo Taylor With Betfair it is simply a reaction to an action , if somebody takes the odds the price shrinks. With bookies the price shortens without any action. How is asking for a little bit of the advertised price unreasonable ? I've been punting for over 20 years and the conditions today are attrocious. £25 / £10 is what my local high street bookie offers on a Pricewise horse if you get there on time , the same as they offered me 10 years ago. Yet a mug punter who walks in with a carrier bag full of notes is accommodated on his 4/11 shot. Work that one out.

[TheRat]

Re: Hugo Taylor I hear what you are saying but bookmaking is a business, they are not in it to do the punter a favour. if a tipster is showing good long term profit then of course they are not going to hold a price

[jayalexander]

Re: Hugo Taylor

With Betfair it is simply a reaction to an action , if somebody takes the odds the price shrinks. With bookies the price shortens without any action. How is asking for a little bit of the advertised price unreasonable ?.

You've kinda answered your own question here; the shortening odds of a horse by any bookmaker is simply a reaction to an action - people lumping money on a given horse! Let's say Betfred cut the price from 20/1 to 12/1 of a HT selection after he posts them in the space of two minutes, they are limiting their liabilities. For the punter, the horse has become an attractive prospect, so they lump even more money on. The price, therefore falls to 8/1 then 6/1. The only way you can consider it unreasonable not getting the advertised price is if you are a lazy punter who follows the man blind and have not done any prior research yourself - and even then it's pushing it!

[Mirage]

Re: Hugo Taylor I have seen the 'Hugh's eyecatchers' feature a few times on ATR and surely these wil be shortened next time out too compared to what they would have been had he not pointed them out. The service is free and, although i agree it would be interesting to see stats with SP, it is something everyone has to deal with.

[TheRat]

Re: Hugo Taylor Hugh always says he won't always back his eyecatchers and rarely does in his column. He did put one up not long ago but as with all his bets they are dependant on price/value. As you point out the bookies will likely know and price accordingly which is why they are often not in his column I am sure I have said this before in the thread but regardless of backing his selections his colums is excellent reading and the Form Factor is superb. His bit on front runners the other week at certain courses was quality

[fintron]

Re: Hugo Taylor Some of the smaller firms shorten up prices on Hugh's selections before they have taken any money for them - for two reasons. 1) they know some of the 'mugs' following will take whatever price they are offered, even if a 33/1 shot is offered to them at 10/1 2) they dont want to allow arbers easy trading opportunities. The early morning liquidity on Betfair is very poor and drives a lot of the prices with the small firms every day, the likes of Sky, Stan James, Sporting Bet and a few others. Quite often, around 10 am when Hugh (and plenty of other tipsters) send their tips its hard to get a worthwhile amount on the horse you want there rarely seems to be more than £50 for any individual horse), more often than not it involves taking a chunk of what is there and leaving the rest unmatched. However, uninformed punters that are impatient destroy any liquidity and mop up all of the available prices in the blue column and drive the price down instead of waiting. A horse that may have been 34.0 may soon be 20.0 because such punters don't want to wait and mop up whatever is actually available to back. Then you get other tipster followers looking to get on the same tips and starting to leave money queued at 21.0 and 22.0 and before you know it the smaller firms have cut their prices in line with the exchanges, to avoid the situation whereby a punter could smash on with them and then lay off at several points shorter on the exchanges. So I don't think the bookies react to having taken money from Hugh's followers in a lot of cases, they are reacting indirectly, as many of the arbers will obviously back the tips on Betfair giving them a trading outlet, and it is too the Betfair movement that they are responding. It is a bit annoying seeing 33/1 winners advertised when that 33/1 will not have been around for a reasonable time, but the RP are worse with Pricewise and I don't see any reason why ATR can't do what the RP do. Again, pricewise is an excellent tipster, but anyone following will see much lower than those advertised. The problem stems from the fact the services are free. Those services which show profit in the long term are those with capped memberships, so the information, and thus money going down, is limited. However, the members end up paying for that luxury. .

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Hugo Taylor

I have seen the 'Hugh's eyecatchers' feature a few times on ATR and surely these wil be shortened next time out too compared to what they would have been had he not pointed them out. The service is free and, although i agree it would be interesting to see stats with SP, it is something everyone has to deal with.

Yep, Elna Bright was one this week annoyingly, a well handicapped horse in my opinion and he goes and flags it up :@