AFL Rd. 16.

[TazaD]

Crows +4 goals? ...Pretty sure I am that brave this week. Numbers are bloody amazing, both last 5 and @ Home... Last 5 58-40 I50's!...Geelong a mild 54-49...Crows 52-41 at home on the season even...their D still is a concern, and it's easy to argue their recent opponents haven't been at all flash, but Geelong's form is far from impressive... ...not to mention 3 common opponents in those 5 game...Crows have Geelong covered in a lot of areas in those games...[Ess and WC] ...even the Hawks game (which looks bad on the surface), there's effectively only 4 shots difference, Crows on the road in that one too obviously. Cats have won the last couple here easily, but since the last time (early last year) Geelong have won just 1 of their last 7 away from Vic by more than 24. Another thing worth mentioning is Geelong away from Kardinia...av'ing just +2 I50's and +2 shots... Reckon the Crows are a genuine chance of getting up here. 4 goals looks big. I don't trust Hawthorn to cover big(ish) spreads (Syd, Port, Ess). Can't possibly trust Brisbane on the road... ...will wait for team news, look for a definate under (won't happen)...meh... West Coast/Ess?! Bombers were unbelievably stiff last week ** ... ...+8 I50's, +6 shots (could argue a couple late/meaningless)...but Melbourne 5, FIVE goals from 50m penalties, and at least another one (Watts) from an amazingly soft free kick... ...but form-wise, Eagles aren't all that bad...last 7 they've played the top 5 teams!!...plus probably the 2 best 'other' form teams (Ade/Rich). Tough to pick a winner...numbers all pretty similar (similarly bad!)... ...could be a sneaky ...amazingly 9 of last 12 meetings have been...each of the last 5 @ Dome... Over a low number... ** ...and, obviously on the flip side, the Dees were very, very lucky! (imho, even watching the game)... ...so interested in Freo this week. Would have loved a few less points...hopefully they get some love later in the week. Numbers worry me slightly, Freo -10 I50's in their last 5!...don't generally dominate that area even at home...their big thing @ home is scoring, a shot every 1.68 entries is shit-hot...and allowing a shot every 2.31 entries in their last 5 is 3rd best in the League... ...and take out the top 3 teams (Which Melbourne certainly aren't!), Dockers have won 7 of last 7 at home by 38+. Reckon I'll be on them...like I said, would like a -25 or so... The other game I'm reasonably interested in is Sydney +11.5 Carlton can't score...a shot every 2.24 entries in their last 5 is 2nd worst...up against the 4th best Swans (give up a shot every 2.23)...even on the road the Swans have been solid (2.10)... ...what actaully is impressive about the Swans on the road is their scoring! Are creating a shot every 1.85 entries (Only Freo better!)...take out the game @ Geelong it goes to 1.79... Tough to see Carlton dominating the midfield enough to get passed those kind of numbers. Jusst 3 trips to Melbourne this year have been a 2 and a 4 point loss (Hawks and Rich, arguably going better than Carlton right now), and a 40 win over North at this venue... ...actually again, take out the top 3 teams in the comp. and the Swans have lost just 1 game of their last 6 in Melbourne by more than 11... ...admittedly that was v. Carlton last year here, but i) Just 4 I50's difference in that game...if that happens again here Swans win...ii) Fev and Kruezer combined for 7.3. Sydney +11.5 Adelaide +24.5 [both Cent] ...don't reckon I'll see better. Also...will explain a bit later in more detail, but I've just done the good ol' ladder predictor again...mainly because I thought Freo @ 2.50 for top 4 was big...turns out Dogs probably will get over the line...but... ...but...(wait for it...)... Richmond Tigers Top 8 (34.00) [Cent] I did it twice, because the first time I couldn't believe my eyes!! Second time with more conservative results (using the draw)... ...I've got Sydney and Hawks as definates...Crows and North as no's...leaving Tiges and Carlton for 8th! Couple of BIG games obviously...but if Carlton lose this week (big chance) and Tiges win (favs) over a genuine rival for that spot, I'd suggest the Yellow and Black are just about in the box seat. :unsure Still reasonably happy with my Melbourne Wooden Spoon ticket, even after such a god-awful win...still reckon they struggle to get any more points...WC and Port both have winnable home games to come (and Bris)... :cheers

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. :okTaza you have the same feel as me mate about the top at i loved adelaide at around $7 my tip this week Adelaide @ $3.80 sportingbet I really feel geelong have lost their way abit, ablett has put the club in a predicament with his selfish attitude, and leaving the club in limbo, everything is starting to go adelaides way, i feel infront of a big crowd at home with Tippett and Walker firing they are a BIG chance to knock of Cats

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 16.

Richmond Tigers Top 8 (34.00) [Cent]

:loon :loon :loon Well, I guess you always have been a Richmond fanatic, right?;)

I did it twice, because the first time I couldn't believe my eyes!! Second time with more conservative results (using the draw)...

Perhaps get down the aquarium as well and put it to an octopus! I actaually backed them for the eight pre season but by the end of April my bookie declared all such bets a loser and kept the money. :\ :lol Does look an interesting one at odds, Taza, must have a closer look myself. :ok My early thoughts are Collingwood, Essendon -16.5, Port +33.5 (final squads vital - they might be much stronger), Melbourne +28.5 (again Freo ins vital to this) and keen watches on Adelaide, Darwin and Carlton-Sydney totals. Ps. Glad that crap is over! I mean, I watched it, had a couple of bets and like any sport the appreciation and enjoyment is in properly understanding the game but honestly, "the beautiful world game ... ":pukeYou've gotta be a better salesman than that around these parts IMO.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Yeah, tell me about it... ...luckily (actually, quite deliberately! :D) I managed to miss watching any of it! Didn't have one bet...mainly because then I would have had to have watched a game! :lol I can't for the life of me see any excitement in it...skillful, absolutely...but as a spectacle.. :eyes Right, so my theory is this... ...Tigers have North (fav), Pies (loss), Crows (MCG...win), Melbourne (win), Carlton [MASSIVE game...I'm calling win for the purpose of this exercise], St. Kilda (loss), Port at home (win) 10 wins. (Average % I know...) Crows I don't think can...(sorry Gooch, I remembered you had them to make the 8 not long after I logged off last night)... ...Cats, not without a chance (as we have discussed! ;)), but tough to go against Geelong...tight loss... ...Port (win), @ Tiges (loss), Doggies (50/50, probable loss), @ Bris (loss), Coll/St. K last 2 losses... 1 more win, maybe 2...even 3 gives them just 9 wins... North... ...Tiges (mentioned, HUGE, proverbial 8 point game), Ess @ Dome, will probably be favs, but 50/50 game...Dogs, Freo, St. Kilda...@ WC (?)...v. Melbourne in Rd. 22 is a monster for a couple of my bets now. Can they win 3 of those to get 10?? :unsure ...As I said, Carlton are the undeniable favs, but 3 genuine 50/50 games could easily be dropped on their current form... ...Swans this week I believe will win, Ess (MCG), @ WC and Tigers are MASSIVE games for them now... ...Coll, Geelong, @ Freo all losses...meaning the Blues will have to win 2 of those 3 to get the safe 10 wins (with %). It could easily be all over this weekend with either a Rich loss or a Carlton win, but I still say the 34.00 is value, given the even-ness (eveness??! :unsure) of those games. Melbourne? Losses @ Freo, Hawks, @ Brisbane, v. Richmond, Swans likely beat them, and will start favs next week if they beat Carlton this week...leaves the last 2 games, @ Port and v. North... ...still reckon they are a HUGE chance to finish bottom...and now's the time to get on if anyone is interested, given I can see some books not even offering a price!! :eek :eek

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Yes, they could not unrealistically finish with ten wins or so, & percentage could take care of itself - and of course, @ 34.00 you can't eat value, usually just buy something darn nice with it by years end instead :tongue2 ;). I remember a while back Fitzroy came from a similar predicament defying flash in pan theories and just kept winning - won about last eight or something after only having about one or two wins prior.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Was kind of up in the air about this game one way or another, but I think I just found the perfect solution... ...Fremantle top scoring team, Sunday ONLY. [2.25] (TAB) Big odds here surely, since I was tossing up between them and the Doggies for the week over-all... ...play Melbourne for a start, who in their last 5 trips to Perth have given up 30, 34, 34, 42!! & 32 shots... ...in 2 interstate trips this year (Adelaide and Darwin) have given up 30 and 37 shots... ...and have given up an av. of 30 shots in their last 7 games...just 2 of those under 30... ...giving up av. 57 I50's in their last 5 games, and Freo score @ 1.68 entries. :cow Freo av'ing 110 ppg at home, and 120 ppg without St. Kilda/Coll. Pretty sure they'll rack up a score here... ...only other games are Carlton/Swans in the Dome which certainly shouldn't produce too many fireworks, and North/Richmond outside in what looks like it might be another wet/slippery ordinary day, plus neither team exactly high scoring anyway. like my chances here at very good odds. :ok [i see Ash has taken a piece of that Richmond action...Centrebet down to 25's now ;) :cheers ]

[saintg1]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Sportsbet still has Richmond at $26 to make the 8. Interestingly, Carlton are $4.75 to miss the 8. If the contention/conviction is that the last spot is between these two, a bob each way is worth considering.

[saintg1]

Re: AFL Rd. 16.

Was kind of up in the air about this game one way or another, but I think I just found the perfect solution... ...Fremantle top scoring team, Sunday ONLY. [2.25] (TAB) Big odds here surely, since I was tossing up between them and the Doggies for the week over-all... ...play Melbourne for a start, who in their last 5 trips to Perth have given up 30, 34, 34, 42!! & 32 shots... ...in 2 interstate trips this year (Adelaide and Darwin) have given up 30 and 37 shots... ...and have given up an av. of 30 shots in their last 7 games...just 2 of those under 30... ...giving up av. 57 I50's in their last 5 games, and Freo score @ 1.68 entries. :cow Freo av'ing 110 ppg at home, and 120 ppg without St. Kilda/Coll. Pretty sure they'll rack up a score here... ...only other games are Carlton/Swans in the Dome which certainly shouldn't produce too many fireworks, and North/Richmond outside in what looks like it might be another wet/slippery ordinary day, plus neither team exactly high scoring anyway. like my chances here at very good odds. :ok quote] Taza, if you take both Bulldogs and Freo at 4.75 & 5.00 respectively, you'll get a little more for your $ if Freo gets up (Sportsbet again).

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Huge total at Centrebet (189.5) for tonights game considering just nine of last fourty-three night games at AAMI have gone over 185

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Western Bulldogs -32.5 @$1.91 sportingbet To me this is a no brainer, Hall is out for the bulldogs but boak also a late withdrawl. TIO stadium conditions will be hot and muggy, this will really suit the bulldogs hands, with runners gilbee, hargrave, harbrow causing a ruckus on a really poor talented team. Bulldogs have won 3 of 4 and lasts weeks demolition of Carlton shows what they can really do when all guns are blazing. Port were great for a quarter last week, but with the aid of a massive win and the upbeat tone due to the coaches depature we shouldnt read too much into this. Last year they played here and Bulldogs won by 16goals, i really see them winning by 40+ Essendon -16.5 @1.91 Essendon is in a fragile position at the moment, alot of negative comments in the media are being spoken about Knights and his playing group, while west coast have been bottom feeders all year. The inclusion of Fletcher will be a great relief to the bomber fans and that back 6 Fletcher, Hurley, Hocking, Dempsey, Hooker, Stanton is really a solid line and i would find it hard with the constant appauling disposal from the west coast midfield for them to kick a formidable score. Playing at home is a massive plus as West Coasts last visit to the dome brought about a dismal display in a belting at the hands of the pies. Essendons pride is on the line this week, the club has to stand up and the players have to support the coach with a heart on the line approach and i expect them to come out all guns blazing 4-5 goal winners! Richmond -6.5 @sportingbet $2 At first glance it appeared to me that the loss of Dan Jackson would be costly a harden midfielder however cousins return into the lineup gives them that hardness class and dash, for the roos loss of Petrie (VC) is sadenning and will hurt the side, also Gartlett who has been playing some reasonable footy. Winning 4 of the past 5 games, the tigers are playing full of passion and some great gutsy football, the win over an inform fremantle last week has to be really promising for this young group, they are seeming to be enjoying each win so much i think they will make it 5 in a row. Kangaroos were poor last week against sydney getting outclassed and leaving malceski to do what he pleased, doing that this week to someone of deledios class will hav a similar damaging effect, this time last year these teams played out an epic draw but 12 months later i think the yellow and black will tame the kangas Bet of the round, as a collingwood supporter Saints -6.5, they have smashed us past 4 times , we cant kick more than 7 goals against them , they have belted geelong 2 weeks ago and now welcome back stars gram and riewoldt, loss of cloke and maxwell will hurt collingwood and id really b stunned if st kilda didnt win this match

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Strongish rumour Ablett is out tonight.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Gooch, I wouldn't be surprised if they've considered resting Riewoldt, as he really struggled last week (as did Gram) and pulled up quite sore from the Gabba track. I agree Cloke is a big a loss, however the last four were more about a class difference whereas I now feel that gap may have closed - Collingwood should have set themselves for this for some belief that they can take down a big wig. So here's hoping you're happy about the result one way or the other. :ok

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Rd. 16.

Gooch' date=' I wouldn't be surprised if they've considered resting Riewoldt, as he really struggled last week (as did Gram) and pulled up quite sore from the Gabba track. I agree Cloke is a big a loss, however the last four were more about a class difference whereas I now feel that gap may have closed - Collingwood should have set themselves for this for some belief that they can take down a big wig. So here's hoping you're happy about the result one way or the other. :ok[/quote'] Ashtee i hope you are right, but we seem to fall into the defensive mindset trap, when we should be using runners beams, wellingham, johnson, obrien, shaw etc to break lines even davis, that will win games you got any other thoughts on matches i previewed?

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 16.

Ashtee i hope you are right, but we seem to fall into the defensive mindset trap, when we should be using runners beams, wellingham, johnson, obrien, shaw etc to break lines even davis, that will win games you got any other thoughts on matches i previewed?

Love the Essendon bet. Boak is late out for Port which leaves them very weak again and I suspect there won't be much of a new coach syndrome (lack personnel anyway). I feel there's certainly touch of value in taking Bulldogs. I don't trust Richmond this week, it's the type of game North win and all Victorian clubs probably would have been beaten Fremantle last week IMO.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 16.

Strongish rumour Ablett is out tonight.

No change to either side, I'll be right on something one day ;).

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. my lord adelaide better win missing chances and umpires rediculous

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Rd. 16.

:okTaza you have the same feel as me mate about the top at i loved adelaide at around $7 my tip this week Adelaide @ $3.80 sportingbet I really feel geelong have lost their way abit, ablett has put the club in a predicament with his selfish attitude, and leaving the club in limbo, everything is starting to go adelaides way, i feel infront of a big crowd at home with Tippett and Walker firing they are a BIG chance to knock of Cats

WOOT WOOT!! GO CROWS:nana

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Rd. 16.

Huge total at Centrebet (189.5) for tonights game considering just nine of last fourty-three night games at AAMI have gone over 185

Great call Ash :beer

[J_R_Ca-H]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Well Done Crows....:loon Even bigger game now tomorrow afternoon.... Go SAINTS.:hope Anyone back up on the Selwood bet? The crows totally deserved the win but what happens if the Selwood "goal" :unsure isn't ruled as hit the post?:cry:cry :lol Deserved win regardless:ok

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 16.

my lord adelaide better win missing chances and umpires rediculous

I hope you don't mean the two Tippett free's which were both clearly there... ...or the Selwood goal that was given a point... (missed the post by half a metre!!)... :unsure ;) Great win tho (you and the Crows gooch :ok )...and a big step forward for them to make the 8. :cheers EDIT: :lol ...beat me to it JR. :D ...and yeah, Saints win will be very nice. :hope

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Rd. 16.

Well Done Crows....:loon Even bigger game now tomorrow afternoon.... Go SAINTS.:hope Anyone back up on the Selwood bet? The crows totally deserved the win but what happens if the Selwood "goal" :unsure isn't ruled as hit the post?:cry:cry :lol Deserved win regardless:ok

Nope only smashed Adelaide to win.. Tomorrows game is Massive, im guessin ur a saints supporter, i will b going and GO PIES :):)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 16.

im guessin ur a saints supporter' date=' [/quote'] If he's anything like me, he's got the Saints to finish on top @ 6.50. :ok (Thanks for the heads up about those high scorers too saintg...but I was a little hasty. :$ ...honestly can't see anyone else troubling the Dogs or Freo...esp. given Richmond are 4th favs! :lol Bombers may get on a decent roll, but I doubt it very much. ) As I kinda expected, totals aren't much good for anything today, imho... ...but a few DT bets have caught my eye... [one's a bit contradictary, but bare with me! :\ ] Rockliff over Brennan and Rioli [2.70] (Sportingbet) Run into some amazing form now that he showed glipses of in the pre-season. 6 games in a row he's had 98+ DT points...(inc. the first 2 with Brown playing which I thought may have been an issue)...but he's getting so much more midfield time now as the older guys get 'rested' more often. Power been playing mainly across half back, as with Johnstone...Black out aswell. Brennan has been just plain bad this year...started well, got injured now hasn't topped 87 since rd. 4! Decent record at this ground is probably the reason he's in this match-up, but never been in this kind of form...probably a direct link with the Lions taking in 2 genuine ruckmen each week. Rioli...has some very good numbers lately **, but, the big but here is his numbers when Franklin doesn't play. Av's just 68 in 3 games this year without Buddy, an 82 last year...is likely forced to play as more of a forward target. Playing well, but not sure he can get to Rockliff's 100 target in this one.... ...but... :$ Rioli over Ellis [1.90] (Lux) ...I do think he will do enough to cover Ellis, who really hasn't done anything much at all! 1 game over 76 in his last 10!! Brisbane are actually 4th 'best' at limitting defenders DT points, and against other good teams in that area (Gee, Syd, Carl, Ess, Rich) he's av'd just 62, with only one of those over 73. Like I said, Cyril will probably spend a lot of time forward, but Brisbane do allow the 2nd most points to forwards...I'm sure he'll snag a couple and end up on around 80-odd. :unsure Embly over Ebert [1.95] (Lux) Wrong person favoured. For 1) Embly has 'won' in 6 of the last 7 games they've played...Ebert has just 1 game over 90 in his last 7... ...2) The road is always a concern for younger players, Ebert av. 81.2 away from Subi, Embly 90.6... ...3) Embly loves the Dome as it is. 111 and 100 in 2 games this year. Av'd 98 last year, 95 in 2008... ...4) Embly loves the Bombers! 111, 100, 92, 101 last 4 meetings... ...5) No Welsh means no real danger of a [decent!] tag. Winderlich over Lovett-Murray [2.20] (Lux) Speaking of wrong man favoured!! :eek 2.20!!!...After a slowish start to the season he's been very consistant, hitting 94+ in 7 of his last 10...better still, if we take out the very best defensive teams in the AFL (St. K, Syd, Gee, Coll) he av's a very impressive 102.4! Lovett-Murray is capable of the odd big game, but just 2 games over 104 all season, and just 2 over 68 in his last 6!! %'s a well and truly in Winderlich's favour here, so to get blown out odds like this is all a bit silly. :cheers

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Dal Santo out if anyone not aware. :wall

[J_R_Ca-H]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Nicky Del OUT:puke Go Saints:ok & Lions:unsure. Edit:- You win this time Taza

[J_R_Ca-H]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Why isn't ONE HD running this live :wall Some stupid re-run crap on Manchester United:puke

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Wonder what Lecras was paying for leading goal scorer of the round.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Yeah...or WC for the highest scoring team?! :eek Might well have dodged one going for Sunday only... :$ Worst possible DT result in Launny as somehow, against all odds, both Brennan and Ellis found some form... :wall ...still, Winderlich was never really in doubt, and Embly managed to grab a late draw with the last goal of the game! :tongue2 Going back to the well, with two more strangish match-ups...(both at Luxbet)... Duffield over Haselby (2.00) I don't really get the match-up, let alone the odds!! :loon Haselby has had just one game over 98 all season...just 2 over 86! I guess they are figuring that Barlow missing helps him out, but just 14 possessions for 64 points last week... ...Duffield's average suffers from his inability to score away, but home track specialist. Av's 99.5 @ Subi, with 7 out of 8 87+. Green over Bate (1.85) At least they have the right guy favoured in this one, but it does seem a total mismatch. Just one game in his last 8 scoring

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Sydney @ Carlton under 180.5 (Betstar) Opened at a pretty realistic low 170's, and somehow ended up here! Already mentioned Carlton's inability to score, esp. against this solid Sydney D, but Swans are hardly going to run up a score themselves. Av. 44 I50's on the road, so although they do convert well, they won't end up with a big score. 3 of Swans' 4 @ Vic this year have been under this...only a trip to Geelong when they gave up 126 went 180+ ...and all of their last 8 overall have been 174 or lower.

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Taza really like your views on the h2h dreamteam, what site are these matchups on?

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 16.

Sydney @ Carlton under 180.5 (Betstar) Opened at a pretty realistic low 170's, and somehow ended up here! Already mentioned Carlton's inability to score, esp. against this solid Sydney D, but Swans are hardly going to run up a score themselves. Av. 44 I50's on the road, so although they do convert well, they won't end up with a big score. 3 of Swans' 4 @ Vic this year have been under this...only a trip to Geelong when they gave up 126 went 180+ ...and all of their last 8 overall have been 174 or lower.

Well done (& +11.5). I had Over 174.5 but there's gotta be an easier way to make a dollar (+176.5 @ S-Punter as it rose as I typed :$). :ok