BBOTD - Sat 10th July

[fintron]

2.50 Ascot DREAM EATER - was 3rd to Goldikova and Paco Boy at Royal Ascot which looks good form if taken at face value. Races over the same trip here tomorrow and acts on GF ground. Trainer appears to have put Dingaan (completely out of his depth otherwise) into the race as a pacemaker, so that should ensure a proper gallop. 9/2 Bet 365, 1 pt win.

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 10th July 1:45 Ascot - Rule Breaker - .5pts e/w @ 16/1 (Paddy Power - BOG) Really impressed me when making all over this distance to win his maiden at Beverley by 6 lengths last month. Showed lots of speed and ability that day, Ran in a Handicap of a similar standard to this 2 weeks ago but didn't get his own way up front and was beaten by the other Johnston horse in the race, He ended up coming 4th but a combination of rock solid ground and a poor ride by Royston Ffrench put paid to his chances of winning I feel. Adrian Nicholls was on board the winner of that race and rode him splendidly, Leading from pillar to post after kicking off the bend and leaving the rest of them in his shadow. He's on board here today and I think he's likely to be up front on his own which he's clearly comfortable doing as shown in the maiden race and if Nicholls gives a similar ride to him as he did with Below Zero then I feel he could well run the rest of them into the ground. He's up against slightly better horses this time, Dropped 2lbs on his handicap mark and carrying 9lbs less overall. Could prove vital if he gets the chance to make all. I certainly feel at the current price of 16/1 that he's overpriced, I'd of thought he'd be half that price and looks the clear value of the race, Likely to improve again as he's lightly raced with only 4 career starts and should improve for having that first handicap run. He's well drawn in stall one and will like the quick ground. He's well bred and will possibly relish further but has shown lots of ability on all of his four runs this season and is open to alot of improvement, Certainly enough to win this race. The betting suggests he's the second string Johnston horse, With top weight Greyfriarschorista being a good bit shorter but he'll have to run exceptionally well to win off his mark of 103 and top weight so I feel the longer priced Johnston horse is a better betting proposition for sure. Johnston and Nicholls don't often team up but they've got a 33% strike rate this season and a number of other placing, He's a very capable jockey and extremely good from the front so hopefully he can have it his own way aboard Rule Breaker and providing he judges the pace well they could end up springing a surprise. Certainly seems overpriced to me and has solid enough place claims, And providing a couple of the horses at the top of the betting don't run to 100% I feel he could knick the race from the front. I can't see who else would be setting the pace, Possibly Thrust Control but he seems out of his depth here so I'll go with the Johnston horse to hopefully prove overpriced and get that little bit of improvement needed to win here.