AFL Rd. 15.

[TazaD]

Well...******' good luck this week boys!! :\ I can see 6 games that could easily go either way...that's including Essendon as a good thing!! :lol I just snuck back into the top 900 in the HS weighted tipping (go Tiges! :clap ), and am seriously considering taking the Saints plus every 'dog! :unsure [Ah...correction, Pies win Friday night...]... ...but by how much is the question? 10 shots diff. between these teams? Yeah, but can Coll kick straight enough to drill a big spread? They probably can tbh...Port home numbers are still ok, (just 3 home games in their last 8!)...but that same skew inflates their home numbers from earlier in the year. Still, mid 30's looks inside the lower boundary as it were... Adelaide night game...+ Friday night game...will be looking for a late total. ;) Hawks are a chance. Easy to argue their run has been easy, but a solid win v. the Dogs with this (strangely!) ever-improving D (2.19 last 7!!)...besides, Cats' has been no better...7 jokes, lost to Carlton and Saints...a good, solid win v. Collingwood tho it has to be said. A 4 shot (9 point) win in Rd. 2...Mooney kicked 4, but no Pods...but Hawthorn won the midfield battle (+2), their D was awful (1.57) which seems to be so much better now. Cats have been big (all 1.72 or less...5 x 1.42 or less!) favs in last 8 meetings, are just 4-4 and haven't won one by more than 11!!! :eek Hawks are a chance. [A slightly more controversial!] West Coast are a chance. Easy to get lost in the Crows' recent results...6 of last 9 at home!! Richmond (8 weeks back!), Melb, Ess [all :puke], Port, Bris...Freo in Edwards' sending off party...just can't rate any of that!! :\ By contrast 3 of last 7 have been home for WC...v. Geelong, St. Kilda and Doggies!! :eek Crows still av. a mere 19 shots on the road (Haven't topped 22 in 6 goes)... ...I know the Eagles haven't scored much lately, but take out St. Kilda and Dogs (the top 2 defensive teams in just about every category) and they've av'd 26 shots at home... ...going back a bit I know, but last 2 meetings @ Subi (06 and 08), Crows were 1.25 and 1.55 favs, and were pumped both times! (82 and 50!!) Lost to Freo here in Rd. 1 as favs (not such a big deal I guess)... ...but being a numbers kinda guy, I won't trust the Crows on the road until I see something!! [That includes taking an 'over' :( ] Pretty sure Saints win...no Brown back, likely no Fev...either way, far too good....High 20's may be a bit rich on the road for a team who still doesn't score a hell of a lot... I didn't initially think so, but are Richmond a chance?? Dockers getting hammered in the middle last 4...-10 (Tiges +1), but defense is holding up big time, as it has on the road all year...2.31 is second best to Dogs in last 4, an amazingly (and consistantly) good 2.30 on the road!... ...which is the thing that sways me to the Dockers. Tiges were 'lucky' last week...+2 I50's, but completely opposite to 'form' they were spanked at either end...Swans butchered a lot of shots (one too many as it turned out! :clap :lol )... ...last meeting and a couple of common recent meetints paint an interesting picture tho... ...Dockers thumped Rich at home, but just +6 I50's (unlikely here)...also +9 clearances is also very unlikely given Graham didn't play and Barlow did... ...both teams v. Saints: -8 shots each, -18 I50's Rich to -16, plus 15 contested possies Rich to -11... ...pretty good numbers, esp. considering Saints were on the road @ Freo... ...Tiges also come out on top in the @ Brisbane comparison (admittedly Brown/Fev kicked 4 v. Freo)... ...but more than anything the Carlton game worries me. 1 less shot thirteen less I50's!... ...Freo in a close, low scorer? Tiges some kind of value @ 2.70 tho! :\ Nth are a chance. VERY similar form...both thumped Port, both disposed of bad teams in bad fashion (Ess and Bris), both beaten by teams they 'should' have been, Swans were better than Richmond, but choked (is that a bad sign in itself?!), but Nth did have a strong result v. Carlton. ...but, Swans did beat Nth in the Dome early on (Bradshaw 11 marks, 4 goals tho)... ...and history hurts Nth (both recent) Nth haven't topped 85 away from Vic in their last 10 (Av. 71!)...and distant (Nth have allowed 100+ in ALL of their last 10 @ SCG!)... ...Would like Nth +20 to take, won't get it with Bradshaw ruled out again... ...just about have to tip Swans @ SCG, but again, at near 3.00 Kangas are super juicy...

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Rd. 15. Cats and Hawks games have had close margins in their last 6 meetings (biggest margin was the GF in 08'). Margins have been 9, 1, 8, 26, 11 and 4pts. Any score under 15.5pts is paying around the $3.30 mark