AFL Rd. 12.

[TazaD]

Some interesting lines this week... ...who would have ever thought Richmond would be a fav this season!! :eek I admit I had a sneak peak at the lines before doing my numbers and thought there were a couple of bargins to be had :D ...but since that point I've only played one game. Looks a solid week for totals tho, in what could be the lowest scoring round ever! ;) I don't really trust Carlton to cover 4 goals at the Dome...their defense has picked up big time in the last 4 weeks (1.98 - 24.5 shots to 2.26 - 22 shots!)...they have been against some poor scoring teams (Port, Hawks, WC, Melb), but Roos are no good either, 13th for scoring. [Woo!...In fact, now I look proper like :unsure ...take out Interstate teams @ Home, they've topped 22 shots just once all year!! :eek They have been reasonably good defensively tho, suspect they won't give up more than 28 shots... ...Would have loved Carlton - mid-teens, but I think 4 goals is on the high side. ...but, could be a pretty handy under. :ok Was all set to load up against the Hawks again this week, but then I saw the Crows' road record... ...0-5, the 2 close games were v. Melbourne and Nth...have given up 33, 31 and 28 shots in the other 3...the more worrying sign tho is that they av. 65 points themselves!! Given the Hawks D has really improved over their last 4 (26 shots into 21.5!!), and it's such a low scoring ground (Hawks have allowed 74 ppg in their last 5 here, since start of 2009) I just don't see the Crows making any kind of scoreboard dent... ...even more-so considering in their last 4 games, Crows are second worst at scoring anyway (2.34, better than Melbourne). Crows D has improved, but again, those road numbers are scary...but having said all that Hawks have had just 24 and 20 (here) shots on the road this year, and have av'd just over 76 ppg on the road in their last 10! Will be prepared to go pretty low on an under here, but so will the books. Geelong are tough to take without Scarlett I reckon, esp. since the Bombers have been so good at converting up forward (before last weekends slug)...Mooney hobbled... Still, it's Geelong, and they're tough to go against anytime. Was hoping for some odds either way @ AAMI, and was a little bit surprised to see them pretty close...think it might pan out that way. Things pointing to the Swans early, they pumped the Crows here in Rd. 2, but with McGlynn, Seaby, Kennelly, Bradshaw all playing well... ...and Port have played just 2 of their last 5 at home...one of which you can't count given it was under water (and home from Darwin). They had 22 shots v. Carlton, which is right on the Blues' recent average...Swans giving up 27...and they did have 30 shots v. Melbourne up North, so there's a real chance Port do get something going this game. ...although a shot just every 2.12 entries (disregarding the Richmond game) @ home this year doesn't bode well v. anyone! Swans did win here last meeting (08) as 2.40 dogs...have won last 5 meetings... ...will wait for the teams, and I suspect the Swans will name a bdetter one. Could be worth a shot as dogs again. :\ Dunno... Tiges!!...Initial thoughts were I couldn't believe I could get 2.00+ for the Eagles given they beat Melbourne here not long ago... ...but Richmond's numbers over their last 4 games have been actually pretty good! Could have easily beaten Hawthorn, hung with the Saints... ...given the Eagles really do struggle to top 80 on the road, this is one the Tiges are right in I reckon. Scarily enough, for a Richmond game, it could be low scoring...Richmond will see this as a game they can win...probably a bad game to get involved with?... Dogs -21.5 Brisbane on the road have given up; 26, 28, 27, 28 & 30 shots...all to the 9th worst scoring team or worse!! :spank 28 and 30 shots v. 2 of the worst 4 for scoring in the league in their last 2...now no McGuire... ...facing the Dogs, who are (amazingly!) ranked number 1 in the last 4 weeks for goals/I50's!! (3.16) Dogs defense is going well too...take out a rampant Collingwood last week [although, even 28 shots then isn't too bad!], 24, 22, 14, 22, 24 shots allowed at the Dome... ...Bris haven't topped 26 shots in their last 7 games, and just 22 shots v. a similar defensive Sydney, without Craig Bolton. Should be 6 or more shots difference, and with the Dogs solid conversion, 22 points looks well within reach. Was honestly surprised to see Freo favs...shame, cause I was looking forward to taking them as dogs! :eyes Saints last 3 wins have been against terrible scoring teams...losses to Essendon and Carlton before that...Freo at home are about as good as scoring gets. A shot every 1.61 entries is impressive...not great opposition I know, but Carlton lit up the Saints (1.62) Ess 1.87... ...although, now I look again, Freo haven't had the weight of I50's I expected them to have, esp. at home...and, in fact, over the last 4 games, Freo are going at -6, Saints +14!! :eek :eek...(but, again, crap teams from St's POV) Freo's numbers are pretty close to Carlton's, so I think they should sneak home...in (funnily enough this weekend) a somewhat low scoring affair. How much do Collingwood win by? Both teams struggling lately...don't think I could trust it either way... Good Luck this weekend guys. :cheers

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 12. Well Taza, it's high time you FINALLY got your ass into gear and started this thread! :eyes Port & Richmond for me this week - I know I'm meant to provide supporting arguments but I feel most people will agree giving you a deserved dose of Satanta's is an important contribution - thank me later! :clap :dude

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Rd. 12. Don't normally look at 1st Goal Kickers but was browsing thru the TAB when I stumbled across this value.

4073

LADSON Rick (HAW)

51.00

Ladson kicked the second goal last week against Port and looks like he will play the forward tagging role again this week and ended up with 4 shots at goal kicking 2.2 Might be worth a dabble at those odds....

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 12. Nice spot Henry. :ok Away from the weekend, so not sure how much I'll get to post...probably naught! Kangas v. Blues under 189.5 and seriously considering taking Ess +29.5... :unsure [Port and Richmond! :eyes ]

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 12. Right, when I said I was going away, I really meant home...:unsure :lol ...can tell you all it's going to be a beautiful day for a winter sport down here...not a cloud in the sky early, no wind at all (although I'm sure that vortex near the ground will somehow get involved!)...about -2 dg's at the moment, but the ice should thaw by 2 o'clocl kickoff! :ok (Serious! ) Looks like a pretty low total will be set...if I can sneak anything in the 170's I'd crack an under, but I doubt it...168.5? Best guess?...either way, conditions won't play a part. But...I didn't realise Port/Swanette's was a night game. WIll be looking for under anything I can find. Again, best guess will be 175.5??...and that will do just fine. [Although, I really need Goodes to do something after making possibly the worst SuperCoach trade of the season last week :wall ] Anyway, I am really going away again today...(and not back to my second home :D), so I guess I just have to hope Port win a snorer in a game where Goodes kicks all of Sydney's 7 goals... I took Bombers +29.5 too...Take out numbers from Kardinia...leave numbers in with no Scarlett...make up your own numbers with no Mooney or Hawkins... ...I reckon it'll be close either way. ;) Good luck boys. :beer