AFL Rd. 11.

[ozgamer]

Latest from CB @ Mon ~ 2.30pm EST: Opening prices came out early and are bracketed. ----------------------------------- RICHMOND ----- 6.05(6.50) ------ +37.5 ST KILDA ----- 1.13(1.11) ------- -37.5 CARLTON ------ 1.34(1.35) ------ -20.5 MELBOURNE ---- 3.29(3.18) ------ +20.5 ADELAIDE ----- 3.17(2.55) ------- +19.5 FREMANTLE ---- 1.36(1.50) ------ -19.5 NTH MELB ----- 2.39(2.35) ------ +10.5 BRISBANE ----- 1.58(1.58) ------ -10.5 WEST COAST --- 6.70(6.25) ------ +40.5 GEELONG ------ 1.11(1.12) ------- -40.5 SYDNEY ------- 1.76(1.78) ------- -4.5 ESSENDON ----- 2.07(2.02) ------- +4.5 HAWTHORN ----- 1.35(1.35) ------ -20.5 PORT ADEL ---- 3.29(3.18) ------- +20.5 COLLINGWOOD -- 1.68(1.50) ------ -6.5 W BULLDOGS --- 2.20(1.50) ------- +6.5 ----------------------------------- I like Port and maybe the Doggies. Both have drifted from their SP already. Possibly Essendon if they keep drifting. Hoping Brogan comes back in with a couple others. Hawks will lose Brown and possibly Franklin. Port have a good record over the Hawks and the loss to Richmond should have them switched on for this. They are 2/4 on the road this year beating similar to worse opponents. Even the 20.5 head start is hard to ignore so Port +20.5 it is. Doggies could be worth a bite tho I'd be more happy to get longer than the current price. The fav has lost the last 3 H2H between these 2 and I think the prices should be closer. ----------------------------------- Favs are @ 62.5% this year (50/80) Winning - lines/+ lines I have @ 47.5%/52.5% Any thoughts as to whether the current trends will change? I would expect a few rounds of surprises here and there but this has been a bizarro season.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 11. Agree with Port, oz. Unfortunately only the +18.5 for me, but still enough to have a dip at...down at Launceston, Hawks lost last lots away from home. As bad as Tigers are (not taking too much notice of last week), still not a lot to show Saints can kick enough to cover upwards of 6 goals. Essendon have relative numbers to St. Kilda and won by 35...Not sure Saints can kick 19.9 every week. Under 180...not going to get that number tho. Tempted by Melbourne, but would like just a couple more points. (Learnt my lesson from ignoring my numbers and using my brain last week!:eyes :D ) The loss to the Eagles @ MCG is tough to swallow... Blues will score more than Eagles did...Melbourne have allowed 61, 59, 57 & 57 I50's in last 4 games, just may not be able to keep up. Gotta like Freo too I think...18.5 a chance somewhere? Crows win over Brisbane was a bit of a joke, as I said, they gave up 58 I50's...Freo have the 3rd best goals/I50 in the last 4 games...even on the road they are 3rd best shots/I50 on the season...should be able to kick a score. Freo -18.5 Got it. May be a a decent 'over' shout too, but will wait and see. Geelong win, but 40 is a lot...too many? Obviously they won BIG @ Brisbane, but... WC just can't score. Best left alone, imho. Kangas/Bris is another tough game to get a winner I reckon, but one way or the other there will be points. Will be happy to wait for an 'over' in this one...relatively high number, so reasonably confident the books will play along! :ok Essendon win don't they? No Fletcher...what, is Jesse White going to kick a bag??!! Find it hard to believe they are 'dogs...any chance of 2.20?! They've had an amazing last 5 games...from someone who couldn't score to the the NUMBER 1 team for goals/I50 in their last 5 games!! Bombers were down in some key numbers last week, but Sydney haven't been great at winning contested ball all year, and have dropped off further in the last 4. (3rd worst...in fact THE worst when taking into account for/agaisnt) They have had an uncanny ability to match I50's...until last week, 40-55 to, an improving I agree, Hawthorn midfield...but missing key elements at both ends is going to hurt here. Bombers not quite travelling as well as Freo, but the Dockers SMASHED Swans at home. Ess won easily here last year at about the same price, like I said, hoping for 2.20, but will be happy to take them whatever... Dogs/Pies...who knows. Doggies numbers are still surprisingly good...Pies have suddenly stopped winning I50's, and scoring, and Dogs defense is absolutely there strong point. First game was even I50's, and only 6 more shots for a 6 goal win...Would have loved Dogs @ 2.40ish...I'd still have to say Pies are legit favs, but... :cheers