AA hand

[Woodie]

Just wanted some ideas on this hand thought it was quite interesting witht he guy chatting in the chat box. Wondered what some would do. PokerStars Game #44418507472: Tournament #273413355, $8.00+$0.80 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXI (800/1600) - 2010/05/21 19:32:55 WET [2010/05/21 14:32:55 ET] Table '273413355 45' 9-max Seat #1 is the button Seat 1: woodiejr (72212 in chips) Seat 2: sixers03 (31621 in chips) Seat 3: Boomba K (38451 in chips) Seat 4: egreenhill (49308 in chips) Seat 6: Misha25 (76615 in chips) Seat 7: CHOPPER1945 (16591 in chips) Seat 8: dolly525 (57087 in chips) Seat 9: titocache (49973 in chips) woodiejr: posts the ante 200 sixers03: posts the ante 200 Boomba K: posts the ante 200 egreenhill: posts the ante 200 Misha25: posts the ante 200 CHOPPER1945: posts the ante 200 dolly525: posts the ante 200 titocache: posts the ante 200 sixers03: posts small blind 800 Boomba K: posts big blind 1600 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to woodiejr [As Ah] egreenhill: folds Misha25: raises 3200 to 4800 CHOPPER1945: folds dolly525: folds titocache: folds woodiejr: raises 5200 to 10000 sixers03: folds Boomba K: folds Misha25: calls 5200 *** FLOP *** [8s 6c 5c] Misha25: checks woodiejr: bets 14999 Misha25 said, "hmmmm" Misha25 said, "..." Misha25 said, "KK?" Misha25: calls 14999 *** TURN *** [8s 6c 5c] [4d] Misha25: checks woodiejr: checks *** RIVER *** [8s 6c 5c 4d] [2d] Misha25: checks Woodiejr ????????????????????

[Hooloovoo]

Re: AA hand Just thinking out loud: On the flop the pot is about 25k. I like the size of your bet (15k). What can he have to call here, considering he raised 3xBB UTG? Some high pair, AK/AQ, suited connectors are a possibility. He could be slowplaying a set, or drawing with AKs or SC. He "knows" you have a big pair or AK. "Call flop, check turn, check river" is a dubious play if he's strong. If he thought he could beat a high pair, then it's very risky to check river, hoping to be able to put in a check-raise. I would assign his possible holding like this. A) He has you beaten (set, two pair, straight) 40% B) He has nothing (He raised with AK/AQ. AJ is a stretch) 30% C) He have something, which you can beat (99-KK, 98s) 30% The pot is about 55k if i calculated it correctly. This feels like a really marginal situation. Normally i don't mind valuebetting light on the river, but here i would lean towards checking behind. If you bet for value, like 20k, you have a very very tough decision if he raises or shove all-in. You will take down a very nice pot if your aces hold up, otherwise you will save yourself alot of chips. I say check.