AFL Round 7 (May 7-10)

[ozgamer]

Centrebet odds. Opening odds in brackets came a few hrs earlier than usual. MELBOURNE ------------ 3.90 (3.70) ----- +24.5 WESTERN BULLDOGS ---- 1.26 (1.27) ----- -24.5 ESSENDON ------------ 1.77 (1.80) ------ -3.5 PORT ADELAIDE ------- 2.06 (2.00) ------ +3.5 WEST COAST ---------- 1.76 (1.73) ----- -4.5 HAWTHORN ------------ 2.07 (2.10) ----- +4.5 COLLINGWOOD --------- 1.20 (1.20) ---- -29.5 NORTH MELB ---------- 4.50 (4.50) ----- +29.5 BRISBANE ------------ 1.47 (1.38) ------ -14.5 FREMANTLE ----------- 2.70 (3.00) ----- +14.5 GEELONG ------------- 1.26 (1.33) ----- -24.5 SYDNEY -------------- 3.90 (3.25) ----- +24.5 ADELAIDE ------------ 1.24 (1.38) ----- -24.5 RICHMOND ------------ 4.10 (3.00) ---- +24.5 ST KILDA ------------ 1.41 (1.50) ----- -16.5 CARLTON ------------- 2.81 (2.55) ---- +16.5 A return to the MCG might see the Dees (with mega-huge-superstar future AA defender James Frawley) keep this close against the Dogs who aren't cutting it atm. Dogs should get Boyd back. Possibly Hill. Dees lose Pettrd and with lack of suitable talls might be forced to play small. Like the Dees @ the line @ the G but will wait and see. Port @ $2.00 & $2.06 Bombers @ $1.77???!!!!! Oh dear. I know it's @ Etihad but that's such an over-reaction. I had already taken Port @ $2.00 and when the lines came out they went out to $2.06! So I took them again. Do I even need to explain? The Dons might lose Welsh and Hille to suspension as well. BONUS! Wet Toast and the Hawks. Hmm. 2 awful teams with plenty of excuses in the press. I think the Eagles win. They should win even 6 days after a tough Derby and w/o Masten (injury) and Embley (dead cert to be suspended) and make better use of their ruck but hard to know what Hawks team will be sent over with talk about players getting axed. No involvement here but maybe a play on the under total? Pies should beat Nth. Lions are expected to bounce back hard @ home after 2 disappointing losses. Dockers should be feeling the pinch after the Derby + travel. Geelong over Sydney with Gabett and Scarlett to return @ Skilled. ???? on J Bolton and Mumford wrt to getting suspended. Crows should beat Tigers. $1.38 -> $1.24. Now that's showing faith :puke Saints-Blues will be interesting @ Etihad. Blues are a chance here and I like their price. I'll be waiting on the teams tho.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10)

Crows should beat Tigers. $1.38 -> $1.24. Now that's showing faith :puke

You're not wrong oz!! :lol Crows have to win don't they, but good lord...2 teams who can't score v. 2 teams who can't stop anyone. Tiges could just get lucky if the Crows kick 4.20 which is entirely possible. You'd have to have some pretty big kahuna's to get involved in this one. :cow:nana I was shocked to see Melbourne @ 3.90 (+24.5)...just a weird feeling to actually consider the Dee's 'value' :unsure ...but they have to be here don't they? Not sure if I'll take the points here, but definately looking forward to seeing a total. 2 surprisingly very good defensive teams! Only Coll, St.K, Freo and Syd have allowed less shots (than both), and only Saints and Syd allow less shots per I50!! Since the start of 2009 (7 games) Dogs have allowe an av. of 72.5 ppg @ MCG, Melbourne just 75 ppg in their first 5 there this year. Doggies have been loose, and I'm sure they'll be keen to get off the leash after last week, but Melbourne backline specifically is operating very well. Roos showed last week teams can easily stifle Melbourne run by clogging the middle (easier at the Dome I know). A history of high scoring meetings, hopefully produces a highish total here. +24.5 does still look a lot... :\ Happy with the Eagles winning too...1.80 looks nice. Sometimes it's best not to question, but just continue to go against one of the worst teams in the AFL. (Yeah, yeah, everyone knows I'm no good at psych...maybe the Hawks will be fired up this week??) Eagles had 26 shots at home against both Port and Ess...right on their av's...Hawks allowing 28 shots on the season. WC play a very tight game at home too...allowing just 43 I50's in 3 games!...bad back 6 numbers (only Crows and Rich worse), but given the Hawks are 2nd worst at scoring (2.23) behind the Tiges in the last 5 games it probably won't matter that much. Forward/backline numbers are almost identical between the teams, but a +9 to -3 I50 count, and a +1 to -9 clearance count should mean the ball spends a hell of a lot more time down one end than the other. Hawks have allowed the 2nd most marks I50 too (behind Tiges again :lol), so even the impotent Eagles should score enough here to get the W. Oh, Hawks have lost 6 of last 7 on the road...inc. 'home' game in Tas. Oh, oh, and Eagles won this meeting last year @ 3.20 dogs. :cheers Like the Power in theory oz, but not sure I can trust them on the road. 2 away games so far have produced 34 (WC) and 37 (Gee) I50's!! They've also lost their last 5 in Melbourne...2 of which they were 1.40 favs. Just can't get a decent read on Essendon at all...Carlton game to Collingwood game...no consistancy at all from any aspect really! BOL mate, hope the right teams show up on the night! :) Collingwood win, but 5 goals looks about right?... ...the team with the biggest I50 dif (+13!!), v. the team with the 2nd worst (-4). Kangas will do a better job defensively than recent teams the Pies have played, but don't think they have the firepower to keep up. Actually, now I look...10+ shots dif on the night won't surprise...was 30-20 to Sydney (in Melb)... ...not sure if the Coll/Melb game is still worrying me slightly... :\ 1.20 does look a fair price...not sure if I'll bite at the spread. Rest of the week looks tough... Freo scoring at just 2.18 on the road (1.53 at home!!)...they just might win the I50 battle given Carlton did (50-48) @ Brisbane, but the Lions do play solid D at home... ...and as good as Freo have been they've only played 2 teams any good at stopping so far (if we count the Eagles at home even!)...23 shots @ St. Kilda, 26 last week, but kicked super straight in both... ...as oz mentioned, long flight off a derby win (albeit a particularly soft one), won't take much for them to have an off game. Surely McGuire wins his challange tomorrow night. Did anyone even think twice about it after seeing it countless times simply for the Bolton injury??! :\ ...even without him (and Merrett), I guess Patful takes Pav and that's about it. (Unless they choose Patful to do a lock-down job on McPhee of course...) Tough to go against Brisbane at home. Geelong at home v. Sydney should be a cracker. NFI what will happen. None. Carlton are a bit like Essendon to me...have no idea what they are going to produce from week to week. Out play Brisbane up there, pump Geelong...get out played by the Crows and lose to Essendon and belted by Collingwood. Beats me! :lol Saints can still run and gun without Riewoldt (see Freo game), without a key forward to worry them (Zac can take Setanta to be sure, to be sure) they just might take the Blues on rather than pile everyone into their back 50 in the first minute of the game and then deny it... :unsure ...Riewoldt did kick 5 last year in a tight one tho. Again, just don't trust either team enough to get inolved. :cheers