Key race - The Derby

[Gingertipster]

Re: Key race - The Derby Workforce and Fame And Glory are probably of the same ability right now. But the fact Workforce has had only three races in his life, means there is quite a bit more improvement in him. If he comes out of the Derby o.k. and just runs to the same form in Ireland he will win. Should be odds on for that one, even if St Nicholas Abbey and / or Cape Blanco turn up. Workforce at 9/2 is (imo) fair value without being worth a bet. (What price would you offer?) You've got to take in to account the fact Stoute was only able to get one run in to him at two, and wanted two runs this season before the Derby. Yet had niggling little problems early on. Don't like to think of these things, but how likely is injury? I'd say taking everything in to account he has roughly a 20% (4/1) chance of Arc victory, so 9/2 is only just above that. Not good enough for me to back him (allowing for a margin of error). I heard some 7/1 was available on course immediately after the Derby. It soon went.

[mowgli77]

Re: Key race - The Derby

Workforce and Fame And Glory are probably of the same ability right now. But the fact Workforce has had only three races in his life, means there is quite a bit more improvement in him. If he comes out of the Derby o.k. and just runs to the same form in Ireland he will win. Should be odds on for that one, even if St Nicholas Abbey and / or Cape Blanco turn up. Workforce at 9/2 is (imo) fair value without being worth a bet. (What price would you offer?) You've got to take in to account the fact Stoute was only able to get one run in to him at two, and wanted two runs this season before the Derby. Yet had niggling little problems early on. Don't like to think of these things, but how likely is injury? I'd say taking everything in to account he has roughly a 20% (4/1) chance of Arc victory, so 9/2 is only just above that. Not good enough for me to back him (allowing for a margin of error). I heard some 7/1 was available on course immediately after the Derby. It soon went.

I think we have to ask if there is anything likely to improve past Workforce and will the older, more experienced horses have more chance of winning an Arc than a relatively young and inexperienced yet very progressive Workforce. I'm not sure what price I would make it to be honest, probably about 6-1, currently 4-1 across the boards. It will probably face horses such as Fame and Glory, Sariska, Dar Re Mi, Cape Blanco and St Nicholas Abbey and the latter could be the fly in the ointment if it is as good as we are told. It will be much harder to weave through horses like yesterday in the Arc and it will need a much more prominent racing position but it clearly has a chance if it goes there. The one that would interest me at the moment is Ice Blue, runs this afternoon in the Prix Du Jockey club and currently 33-1 for the Arc but only a few bookies offering odds, any idea why? It is a big risk taking 4-1 on Workforce in June when the race is in October but if it wins the Irish Derby it is likely to go off under 2-1, like you say there is always risk of injury but that's the case with all ante post bets I suppose. Also just worth adding that an impressive win this afternoon by Cape Blanco may see both that and Workforce cut for both the Irish Derby and the Arc.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Key race - The Derby Whatever the horse there is a risk of injury when betting ante-post. But with Workforce's history, injury / not running is a bigger risk.