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Punchestown 20th April

Spooner

By Spooner
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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Spooner

Spooner

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Re: Punchestown 20th April 16:20 - General Miller @ 7/4 Boylesports (bog) Was impressive at Aintree when defeating the Surpreme Novices' winner Menorah, he did race at Cheltenham also but fell at the first so a nice return for this horse, this race comes just 11 days later but assuming he is ready to go again then looks the one they have to beat. 18:40 - Zaarito @ 11/4 Boylesports (bog) Only question for this one is can he stay on his feet, fallen way to many times but the thing is when he does jump around he is normally bang there. Looks classy at times but always that doubt about falling, I'm going to take another chance and I believe if the horse does jump round then he wins, at 11/4, looks ok.

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RuleBritannia

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Re: Punchestown 20th April

Where's RB? He had a cracker last year if I remember. :unsure
I did mate.... had a massive profit, but have been well well off the mark for the entirety of this season. Love this festival though, and having a good crack at it again this year. Posting up my bets today soon....
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RuleBritannia

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Re: Punchestown 20th April All Bet365 and BOG 340 - Not to Pushed 0.5pts EW @ 20/1 Top jockey booking for this animal in this particular type of race. Although he has found wins hard to come by from his 11 PTP runs thus far in his his career, (1 win in 11), he has consistently made the frame, having done so in over 50% of his career starts. Like many today, makes his debut under rules and although some formlines suggest that he should be well behind the market principals here, he should act fine on the ground and should get the trip no problem, having made the frame on good before, despite best form being with softer ground. Had a couple of falls early in his career, and there is always the possibility he could throw in the odd shocking jump, but on the whole he is fairly sound and has the right man on board to ensure the best possible run can be given. 20/1 looks big. 420 - Loosen My Load 1pt EW @ 8/1 Done next to nothing wrong in first 5 starts, between bumpers and hurdles, only losing once, when 2nd to Fosters Cross, who has subsequently gone on to a degree of success. Showed when beating Some Present in a G2 event at Cheltenham in November, that he is a very decent animal in the making and has a very good turn of foot. General Miller, for me is too short having had a very tough race at Aintree less than a fortnight ago, and Blackstairmountain, had an even tougher one when 2nd behind Luska Lad at Fairyhouse. Loosen My Load was 4th in that particular race, and excuses can easily be made, as he didnt look very fit. Price looks very decent here, as will have stripped much fitter for that run and was given a much easier time than Blackstairmountain. 530 - Sizing Ireland 3pts WIN @ 5/1 Faces a potentially very decent rival or 2 here, particularly Scoter Fontaine, but Henederson's runner is expected to be a very good horse for the future and is expected to regularly feature in the big races in England, as aopposed to the rest of the Sizing horses staying in Ireland with De Bromhead. Was expected to win debut, but disappointed under Andrew Tinkler but sure to appreciate the better ground and really should take all the beating here. That previous run should be vital racecourse experience, which he can use and learn from. 605 - Twist Magic 4pts WIN @ 3/1 Very disappointing in the champion chase, but has had a great season other than that, including a remarkable success at Sandown, when hammering Forpadydeplasterer. Has ideal ground conditions here, and on the whole jumps well enough to be in contention at the business end here. If on a going day, then he will take all the beating, having comprehensively beaten both FPDP and KK in the past 12 months, when on going days. I believe the risk that he won't turn up and run as well as hoped is factored into the price and will take all the beating here. 640 - Kempes 1pt EW @ 10/1 I expect him to drift to an even bigger price, as there is severe stamina doubts and the odd jumping flaw, but there is no doubting his class. He is potentially a top class chaser, and believed to be being aimed at the Ryanair next season. Willie Mullins has 2 in the race, with The Midnight Cllub clearly the more fancied, but I have more concerns about TMC on good ground, than I do about Kempes staying the trip. If he is conserved well throughout the race, then there is no reason why he can't stay, and if staying then he will definitely be in the mix, come the end of the race. I believe the worry, is factored into the price already, and will more so throughout the day. I can't have Zaarito, as I dont believe his jumping frailities are factored into his price, I dont believe that China Rock will fully get home. Saddlers Storm is the other who interests me, but I dint think he was really the good thing everyone though, even before falling in the Irish National. I am happy to side with Kempes getting in the frame here, on ground he will truly appreciate, at double figure price. 715 - Laganbank 2pts WIN @ 9/2 Like Sizing Ireland on the Land Rover bumper, this horse disappointed largely when 3rd on a debut that was expected to win @ odds on but was clearly unsuited by the ground and got bogged down way too much. Clearly expected to improve here, and will be much better suited by the drying ground. Patrick's pick from the Mullins pair, indicating that he should be the stronger. Being eyed at a summer campaign, hopefully picking up a couple of nice prizes on good/firm ground throughout the summer, but first needs to prove hismelf up to this sort of class and will hopefully start today. Maaisve improvement expected and if he does, then he could very well make a mockery of the price available.

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RuleBritannia

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Re: Punchestown 20th April

is E/W the top 3? I'm tempted to have a few quid on Loosen My Load at 8/1 Quick question is it 8/1 to win or 8/1 to come in the top 3 I've only bet on 1 horse in my life :unsure
Yeah top 3. 8/1 is the win half of the bet, and it is 1/4 the odds for the place part of the bet (top 3), so 2/1.
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RuleBritannia

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Re: Punchestown 20th April

it's 9/1 at Ladbrokes atm
Yeah, I just posted where I placed my own bets. There will be better odds around for horses if you shop around, but I mainly use bet365 for convenience as it is where I have most cash stored, and able to access quickly. Don't think the 9/1 @ Ladbrokes will last tbh, as 8/1 across the board bar totesport and SJ who go 7/1.
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StuSimmy

StuSimmy

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Re: Punchestown 20th April 16:20 Punchestown I also like Loosen My Load in this race who I was impressed with when he won at Cheltenham on his penultimate start. Did only win by half a length but I felt he held on well and had a nice turn of foot to run clear after the 2nd last. Was 4th at Fairyhouse when last on the track at the start of the month, that was after 4-5 months off the track so he should be fitter for today's race. Seems versatile groundwise having won on Good To Firm, Good To Soft and Good/Yearling. Trip is perfect and I think he will run to a place at the very least here today at a nice price. I feel General Miller will find it hard to follow up after a tough race at Aintree and I fancy Loosen My Load to reverse the placings with Blackstairmountain due to the fact he should come on for that run and had an easier race that day. 1pt E/W Loosen My Load @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes - BOG)

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yaut

yaut

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Re: Punchestown 20th April I was considering going to Punchestown today but 30eur for the entry only, ghhrrr no thanks! I usually go with my BF and that'd be 60eur only to get in, nope sorry but they can get lost. I see high entry fees as biggest problem of Irish racing. I know a good handful of people who would go to races every weekend and take with their second half and kids too IF the entry prices were say half of what they're now. Rant over :puke

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RuleBritannia

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Re: Punchestown 20th April Isn't it just like the thing :lol:lol I stick with the Mullins yard all season, despite the coughing problems etc..... and today for one reason or another, I oppose and Blackstairmountain and Golden Silver both win comfortabely :loon Dont get me wrong... absolutely delighted for the yard though after all the problems :clap Update from me so far.... 1st bet - Not to pushed was bang in contention when falling at the 3rd last. Unlucky... but might not have beaten the front 3 anyway. 2nd bet - Loosen My Load was very disappointing. Didn't back Blackstairmountain as I thought the exertions at Fairyhouse would have taken their toll. 3rd bet - Never seen the Land Rover bumper, so don't know what happened with Sizing Ireland. 4th bet - Twist Magic :spank:spank:spank:spank:spank:spank Didn't back Golden Silver as I thought ground would be well against him. Did think he would be the best of the Mullins trio though, as ScotsIrish had a very very tough run in the Topham and Barker hasn't lived up to the potential the yard thought he had. Still 2 to go for me..... but even if nothing comes of them, still plenty racing to be run this week. :ok

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Burnley Joe

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Re: Punchestown 20th April 640 - Kempes 1pt EW @ 10/1 I expect him to drift to an even bigger price, as there is severe stamina doubts and the odd jumping flaw, but there is no doubting his class. He is potentially a top class chaser, and believed to be being aimed at the Ryanair next season. Willie Mullins has 2 in the race, with The Midnight Cllub clearly the more fancied, but I have more concerns about TMC on good ground, than I do about Kempes staying the trip. If he is conserved well throughout the race, then there is no reason why he can't stay, and if staying then he will definitely be in the mix, come the end of the race. I believe the worry, is factored into the price already, and will more so throughout the day. I can't have Zaarito, as I dont believe his jumping frailities are factored into his price, I dont believe that China Rock will fully get home. Saddlers Storm is the other who interests me, but I dint think he was really the good thing everyone though, even before falling in the Irish National. I am happy to side with Kempes getting in the frame here, on ground he will truly appreciate, at double figure price. :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy Excellent result

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