Questions about weight trends in Grand National

[Gingertipster]

Questions About Trends and Grand National Top Weights. Don't Push It won the Grand National under 11-5. I've heard Trends experts on here say they will still dismiss any horse carrying more than 11-5 next year. 1 lb is the same amount of weight, whether it is the difference between 10-5 and 10-6, or 11-5 and 11-6. It's particularly strange when the runner-up for the last two years has carried 11-6. So both Comply Or Die and Black Appalachi have been capable of beating 38 runners. Is 38 a magic number? Why is it that no horse is capable of beating just 1 more horse; 39 horses another year? Is 39 the devil's number? I've heard the BBC showed the weigh in, with AP weighing in at 11-6! But let's say it was 11-5. Don't Push It won quite easily, with his ears pricked by 5 lengths. How many lengths is 1lb worth when racing over the National course, on good going, at 4 ½ miles? Do you believe that 1 lb is equal to more than 5 lengths? It would have to be for Don't Push It not to win under 11-6. So surely, the conclusion must be it is possible to win off 11-6, or more. Excuse my sarcasm, only I don't see any logic to the argument that 11-5 is somehow the most weight a horse can carry to victory.

[Aykay1]

Re: Questions about weight trends in Grand National The weight trend is history as far as i'm concerned. Royal Auclair and Comply or Die both came 2nd off big weights. Black Apalachi off 11 stone 6lb's was streets ahead of State of Play in 3rd. The best "trend" you can look for are horses who are good jumpers who have been noted as "staying on" in their races over 3m+