Tennis - 5-11 April

[Atko]

ATP events from Casablanca and Houston; WTA events from Ponte Vedra and Marbella :ok

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April Difficult opening day in both Casablanca and Houston. Probably best to give both a miss.

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April Oscar Hernandez @ 4.92 I can't miss 4.92 against PHM. Mathieu didn't played much on clay lately, and earlier, except for that final in Hamburg in 2009. he didn't had much success. He'll face an average claycourter, experienced Hernndez who didn't had too much success on hardcourts but has played tons of such tournaments and he can cope with Mathieu IMO.Odds are wrong here and i'll try to take advantage of that.

[AntoNescU]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April Sport Tennis Event Sofia Arvidsson - Carly Gullickson Selection Carly Gullickson (Lay) Strength 10/10 Date 05/04/2010 Bookmaker/Price Blue Square @ 3.75 (Lay) Reasoning Carly Gullickson played this year with modest players from ATP ranking and obtained conflicting results,being now on 173th place.Sofia Arvidsson played reasonable this year,she losing only with Sharapova and Cibulkova in last 2 months.So,I can say Sofia Arvidsson is the better player here,so I expect a relatively easy victory for her.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April

Oscar Hernandez @ 4.92 I can't miss 4.92 against PHM. Mathieu didn't played much on clay lately, and earlier, except for that final in Hamburg in 2009. he didn't had much success. He'll face an average claycourter, experienced Hernndez who didn't had too much success on hardcourts but has played tons of such tournaments and he can cope with Mathieu IMO.Odds are wrong here and i'll try to take advantage of that.

Fantastic shout mate :clap

[DafsT]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April

Sport	Tennis
Event	Taylor Dent - Horacio Zeballos
Selection	2
Strength	6/10
Date	06/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 1.42 (Back)
Reasoning	ATP Houston - Round 32 - Horacio Zeballos (54th, 801 points) plays against big serving American, Taylor Dent (104th, 519 points) who is playing his best tennis for the last two years now. Taylor Dent was competitive against Nadal in Miami, but relied to heavily on his big serve. Horacio Zeballos reached Round 32, defeating Andreas Seppi and Gilles Simon in straight sets before eventually losing out to the runner-up Tomas Berdych. For his current form and higher ranking, I'm backing Horacio Zeballos to defeat Taylor Dent. I hope Horacio Zeballos will win. Good luck!

[DafsT]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April

Sport	Tennis
Event	Florent Serra - Santiago Ventura
Selection	1
Strength	9/10
Date	06/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 1.35 (Back)
Reasoning	ATP Casablanca - Round 32 - Florent Serra (57th, 770 points) has been hanging-in there against the big guys, mostly top 40. He's been more than holding his own against Roger Federer, Benjamin Becker, Tomas Berdych and Nikolay Davydenko; either taking them to a tie-break or capturing a set. Against lower ranked players such as Santiago Ventura (123rd, 436 points), he might struggle for motivation, but I think he'll win. Florent Serra also holds a 1-0 lead in the head-2-head, winning on clay 6:4, 6:3. I hope Florent Serra will win. Good luck!

[DafsT]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April

Sport	Tennis
Event	Nicolas Lapentti - Sebastian Decoud
Selection	1
Strength	10/10
Date	06/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 1.29 (Back)
Reasoning	Challenger Bogota - Round 32 - In Nicolas Lapentti's (99th, 538 points) last tennis match, he won six games against World Number 1 Roger Federer. In Sebastian Decoud's (164th, 291 points) last tennis match, he won four games against Potito Starace, so that's one of my reasons going for Nicolas Lapentti. The Ecuadorian holds a 2-0 head-2-head lead over Sebastian Decoud, both wins on clay which is the surface they'll be playing on, both in South America which is the continent they'll be playing in and the home tournament for Lapentti, and in both matches Sebastian Decoud only won three games. I hope Nicolas Lapentti will win. Good luck!

[DafsT]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April

Sport	Tennis
Event	Kevin Kim - Philipp Oswald
Selection	1
Strength	6/10
Date	06/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 1.91 (Back)
Reasoning	Challenger Bogota - Round 32 - Philipp Oswald (243rd, 187 points) might be on better form than his opponent, Kevin Kim (134th, 387 points), but I think the American will win this match today despite being the underdog. Kevin Kim holds a 1-0 head-to-head lead over Philipp Oswald with a three-set victory in 2008. I feel that Philipp Oswald's run to the quarter-finals at Jersey is overrated, and therefore I'll pick the underdog Kevin Kim here. I hope Kevin Kim will win. Good luck!

[WinningTipster]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April Hi guys, First pick for the clay court season (Casablanca Morocco tournament) 2nd round: STARACE TO D HERNANDEZ @ 1.53 on betfair Hernandez is almost 32 years old and with the results he has this season he must be near the end at his career. He is just 1-8 in 2010 and has lost all 4 matches on clay. His 1st round match at Casablanca was his first win of the season against Mathieu who was injured for 5 months and who is not a clay court player. Starace who has won all 3 matched on clay against Hernandez last year should be too good for him in terms of consistency and fitness.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April Small stakes the order of the day here as the 250s roll into action... Casablanca - Stefan Koubek vs Stephane Robert Stephane Robert -2.5 games AH at 1.833 (Pinnacle) Koubek came through the qualifying and at the age of 33, his body will not have appreciated the gruelling match Antonio Veic put him through. The fact that Koubek had to go the distance against a player less superior to Robert tells its own story. The Frenchman has been in good form this year, winning on the clay in the Marrakech challenger just a few weeks ago. He went over to Miami, where he beat a similar sort of player in Andreas Beck (another leftie), and after performing so well on the clay in the past, I expect him to do fairly well here. Neither player are world beaters but Robert has more recent form in the book and is fresher than his Austrian opponent. I fancy him to progress here. Bet strength: 4/10 Casablanca - Arnaud Clement vs Ivan Navarro Arnaud Clement at 1.862 (Pinnacle) Clement leads the H2H 1-0 and although Navarro is another who has come through the qualifying, I expect the Frenchman to be too good for him. There is a big difference in class here between the two - Clement has been holding his own against Top 50 players, while Navarro has been playing at challenger level. Navarro is quite a powerful player and is more suited to the clay than any other surface, but Clement has the tricks and experience to beat this kind of opponent. I am surprised the odds are so generous on Clement and I do expect him to be the winner here. Bet strength: 4/10 Casablanca - Teimuraz Gabashvili vs Reda El Amrani Reda El Amrani +5 games AH at 1.926 (Pinnacle) I confess to knowing very little about El Amrani, other than he lives in Casablanca, plays challengers mostly and is ranked 282 in the world. What I do know about Gabashvili is that he won't like this match-up. The Russian can be brilliant sometimes and horrendous on others. His mentality is fragile, and his serve even more so. He's not a consistent player but one that can produce quality. I do expect him to win this but if there's to be shock, then it could be here. Gabashvili is not one to trust to cover a big handicap, and with the Moroccan having home advantage, it's worth a small play on the Moroccan to make this close. Bet strength: 3/10 Houston - Michael Russell vs Mikhail Kukushkin Michael Russell -3 games AH at 1.926 (Pinnacle) Russell's clay record is pretty unenviable, but at present he's playing pretty well after a good showing at the Masters events. He takes on a difficult but not insurmountable foe in Kukushkin, who is more of a hard court player. His last outing on clay was a defeat to Simone Bolleli and that shows that he's not entirely comfortable on this surface. The American will have home advantage and has the experience of playing on this surface. In the end, that should shine through, I can see him winning this one in 6-3 6-4 scoreline. There is a gulf in form and class here and Russell should be able to prove that. Bet strength: 3/10 Casablanca - Andrey Golubev vs Daniel Koellerer Daniel Koellerer at 2.10 (Pinnacle) I'm not one for trusting Koellerer a huge amount, but I do reckon the Austrian is worth a look here. He's far more experienced and talented on the clay than Golubev, who is a far better indoor hardcourt player. The fact that Koellerer beat him in Zagreb recently on such a surface suggests to me that his game - and mentality - is a bad match-up for the Kazakh. Koellerer's a joker, he plays mind games on the court and it can hinder inexperienced players. I wouldn't put a great deal of cash on 'Crazy Dani' but he's got the ability to take this one. Bet strength: 2/10 Good luck :ok

[Rebel]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April Hi guy's i am looking to watch the Niland vs Fish match tonight, as it is not very often an Irish man quailfies for the main draw. Betfair are not streaming the match. So do ye know where i can watch the match. Cheers Rebel

[lato89]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April gabashvili piece of s... :@

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April

gabashvili piece of s... :@

No mate, Gabashvili's the real hero. My handicap bet well and truly covered. Never, ever trust this man. Saying that, he could very well still win this.

[Jenspm]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April Wow, Gasquet is on fire.. Took him 20 minutes to win the first set 6-1, without losing a single point on his own serve :O

[Jenspm]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April

Wow' date=' Gasquet is on fire.. Took him 20 minutes to win the first set 6-1, without losing a single point on his own serve :O[/quote'] Non-seeded Gasquet beats 7th-seeded Rochus 6-1 6-1 after 46 minutes, losing only a single point on his own serve.. :clap

[Yoann_Gourcuff]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April

Non-seeded Gasquet beats 7th-seeded Rochus 6-1 6-1 after 46 minutes' date=' losing only a single point on his own serve.. :clap[/quote'] yep,easiest 1.60 i've seen for a while

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April

Small stakes the order of the day here as the 250s roll into action... Casablanca - Stefan Koubek vs Stephane Robert Stephane Robert -2.5 games AH at 1.833 (Pinnacle) Koubek came through the qualifying and at the age of 33, his body will not have appreciated the gruelling match Antonio Veic put him through. The fact that Koubek had to go the distance against a player less superior to Robert tells its own story. The Frenchman has been in good form this year, winning on the clay in the Marrakech challenger just a few weeks ago. He went over to Miami, where he beat a similar sort of player in Andreas Beck (another leftie), and after performing so well on the clay in the past, I expect him to do fairly well here. Neither player are world beaters but Robert has more recent form in the book and is fresher than his Austrian opponent. I fancy him to progress here. Bet strength: 4/10 Casablanca - Arnaud Clement vs Ivan Navarro Arnaud Clement at 1.862 (Pinnacle) Clement leads the H2H 1-0 and although Navarro is another who has come through the qualifying, I expect the Frenchman to be too good for him. There is a big difference in class here between the two - Clement has been holding his own against Top 50 players, while Navarro has been playing at challenger level. Navarro is quite a powerful player and is more suited to the clay than any other surface, but Clement has the tricks and experience to beat this kind of opponent. I am surprised the odds are so generous on Clement and I do expect him to be the winner here. Bet strength: 4/10 Casablanca - Teimuraz Gabashvili vs Reda El Amrani Reda El Amrani +5 games AH at 1.926 (Pinnacle) I confess to knowing very little about El Amrani, other than he lives in Casablanca, plays challengers mostly and is ranked 282 in the world. What I do know about Gabashvili is that he won't like this match-up. The Russian can be brilliant sometimes and horrendous on others. His mentality is fragile, and his serve even more so. He's not a consistent player but one that can produce quality. I do expect him to win this but if there's to be shock, then it could be here. Gabashvili is not one to trust to cover a big handicap, and with the Moroccan having home advantage, it's worth a small play on the Moroccan to make this close. Bet strength: 3/10 Houston - Michael Russell vs Mikhail Kukushkin Michael Russell -3 games AH at 1.926 (Pinnacle) Russell's clay record is pretty unenviable, but at present he's playing pretty well after a good showing at the Masters events. He takes on a difficult but not insurmountable foe in Kukushkin, who is more of a hard court player. His last outing on clay was a defeat to Simone Bolleli and that shows that he's not entirely comfortable on this surface. The American will have home advantage and has the experience of playing on this surface. In the end, that should shine through, I can see him winning this one in 6-3 6-4 scoreline. There is a gulf in form and class here and Russell should be able to prove that. Bet strength: 3/10 Casablanca - Andrey Golubev vs Daniel Koellerer Daniel Koellerer at 2.10 (Pinnacle) I'm not one for trusting Koellerer a huge amount, but I do reckon the Austrian is worth a look here. He's far more experienced and talented on the clay than Golubev, who is a far better indoor hardcourt player. The fact that Koellerer beat him in Zagreb recently on such a surface suggests to me that his game - and mentality - is a bad match-up for the Kazakh. Koellerer's a joker, he plays mind games on the court and it can hinder inexperienced players. I wouldn't put a great deal of cash on 'Crazy Dani' but he's got the ability to take this one. Bet strength: 2/10 Good luck :ok

Robert d. Koubek 6-3 5-7 7-5 - WIN :ok Clement d. Navarro 6-3 6-3 - WIN :ok El Amrani d. Gabashvili 7-6 4-6 7-6 - WIN :ok Russell vs Kukushkin cancelled - VOID ;) Golubev d. Koellerer 6-2 7-6 - LOSS :@ All in all, a brilliant day's work. :cash

[Cornell]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April

Sport	Tennis
Event	Marcel Granollers v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
Selection	Garcia
Strength	10/10
Date	07/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.94 (Back)
Reasoning	This will going to be a game between two spaniards, both are playing very similar style of tennis as their play is based most on serve and forehand. Marcel Granollers has already played one game here at Casablanca, he has defeated Robin Haase in a very tight match where two tiebreaks have decided the winner in the end. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez will play his first game here and also this will be his first game on clay of this season. Garcia did impressed with his tennis recently on hard at Indian Wells and Miami, he has played some really good games there. But that was on hard, here is clay and I think that certain here is the point and the main reason for why we have these nice odds on his side. Granollers did played a lot on clay in 2010 while Garcia didn't played at least one game, that is all about, but if we'll look a litter bit at Granollers wins then we could observe that his opponents were not difficult at all, he didn't had at least one victory against a player of Garcia's level. Granollers didn't showed nothing special in 2010, just more wins in small tournaments and against not difficult opponents. Overall Garcia is a better player than Granollers certain on clay and not only, he possess more experience, a more stable backhand and can select better his shots. I doubt that Garcia should be affected too much that he will play his first game on clay as I remember last season, first tournament on clay (Houston) he made a nice start. All in all, Garcia is a better player overall, a more complete one and he should be the favourite for this one. Good Luck!

[lockscombi]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April Great work ATKO! Quick question from a newbie punter.. When ppl Display BET STRENGTH x/x What does it actually mean? Does it mean i should bet 40% of my standard head to head bet (so $4 from my usual $10) OR your just not so confident with the bet as opposed to a BET STRENGTH of 10/10.. Keep up the great work! :nana

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April

Great work ATKO! Quick question from a newbie punter.. When ppl Display BET STRENGTH x/x What does it actually mean? Does it mean i should bet 40% of my standard head to head bet (so $4 from my usual $10) OR your just not so confident with the bet as opposed to a BET STRENGTH of 10/10.. Keep up the great work! :nana

The strength relates to the confidence I have in the bet. It also allows me to know how much I'm going to place on the bet. I have a stake system where the higher my bet strength, the more money I put on.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April Casablanca - Florent Serra vs Stephane Robert Florent Serra -3 games AH at 1.893 (Pinnacle) Hard to see past Serra in his current rich vein of form. He did well in the North American Masters and didn't look at all rusty in defeating Ventura yesterday. Robert, on the other hand, made hard work of Koubek and looked fragile on his serve. Serra's got plenty of ranking points to defend here as he was a finalist last year, and with him confident and playing so well, I find it hard not to see him taking a relatively straightforward victory over his compatriot. Bet strength: 5/10 Houston - Ryan Sweeting vs Nicolas Massu Nicolas Massu -2.5 games AH at 1.926 (Pinnacle) Massu's the more comfortable of the two men here on clay. The Chilean is not the force of old these days, but I suspect he'll have too much for the inexperienced Sweeting here. The American is a big server who doesn't move especially well, and I'm surprised he managed to beat Korolev, albeit the Kazakh isn't brilliant on clay either. They met on a hard court last year and Massu won in two tight sets. Sweeting, before yesterday, had never won a Tour match on the red brick. He's playing a much more experienced foe in Massu and I expect the Chilean to do the job professionally. Bet strength: 4/10 Good luck :ok

[jovinco]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April Atko, your deep knowledge and insightful writing are a model to us all.:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy Would you recommend me with some useful tennis sites? Thanks Alot

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April

Atko' date= your deep knowledge and insightful writing are a model to us all.:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy Would you recommend me with some useful tennis sites? Thanks Alot

Thank you for your kind words jovinco. There are plenty others on here too that know their tennis. As for sites, I use www.downthet.com and www.atpworldtour.com for my research.

[jovinco]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April

Thank you for your kind words jovinco. There are plenty others on here too that know their tennis.

Sure thing, this is great community. Thanks mate:ok

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April Nice stuff last few days Atko, fair play......:ok Looks like you got Serra up aswell. He was too good in the last 2 sets. Well done.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April

Sport	Tennis
Event	Marcel Granollers v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
Selection	Garcia
Strength	10/10
Date	07/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.94 (Back)
Reasoning	This will going to be a game between two spaniards, both are playing very similar style of tennis as their play is based most on serve and forehand. Marcel Granollers has already played one game here at Casablanca, he has defeated Robin Haase in a very tight match where two tiebreaks have decided the winner in the end. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez will play his first game here and also this will be his first game on clay of this season. Garcia did impressed with his tennis recently on hard at Indian Wells and Miami, he has played some really good games there. But that was on hard, here is clay and I think that certain here is the point and the main reason for why we have these nice odds on his side. Granollers did played a lot on clay in 2010 while Garcia didn't played at least one game, that is all about, but if we'll look a litter bit at Granollers wins then we could observe that his opponents were not difficult at all, he didn't had at least one victory against a player of Garcia's level. Granollers didn't showed nothing special in 2010, just more wins in small tournaments and against not difficult opponents. Overall Garcia is a better player than Granollers certain on clay and not only, he possess more experience, a more stable backhand and can select better his shots. I doubt that Garcia should be affected too much that he will play his first game on clay as I remember last season, first tournament on clay (Houston) he made a nice start. All in all, Garcia is a better player overall, a more complete one and he should be the favourite for this one. Good Luck!

Just thought I'd say, really good tip with excellent write-up. I was concerned with it being GG's first match on clay, but he smashed him. Great work :clap

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April

Nice stuff last few days Atko, fair play......:ok Looks like you got Serra up aswell. He was too good in the last 2 sets. Well done.

Cheers mate. Serra's comeback was fantastic, I'd given up hope to be honest after the first set. Profit today no matter whether Massu does the business. These 250s can be a bit hit or miss though, I'm not getting too excited yet.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April Yeah mainly watching this week...couple of small punts here and there....took Clement yesterday and Garcia-Lopez today mainly because their prices were value,..... but just small amounts. Early rounds can be dodgy in these events but the big ones are not much better these days. Was gonna go on Serra in 3rd set at 4/6 but by the time I had the bet ready to go it had plunged to 4/9 and then 1/3......damn bookies......:lol

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 5-11 April

Yeah mainly watching this week...couple of small punts here and there....took Clement yesterday and Garcia-Lopez today mainly because their prices were value,..... but just small amounts. Early rounds can be dodgy in these events but the big ones are not much better these days. Was gonna go on Serra in 3rd set at 4/6 but by the time I had the bet ready to go it had plunged to 4/9 and then 1/3......damn bookies......:lol

Yeah Clement was a gift yesterday. What surprised me the most was his price drifted too! As I said above, GG's first match on clay put me off, but the odds were a just reward if you had the bravery to go for it. Serra was flying once he broke in the second. Robert's pretty average, a class below Serra. How he got to the final of Jo'Burg and beat David Ferrer en route is beyond me!