BBOTD - Thur 18 March

[ogii55]

Cheltenham 1.30 Jewson Chase Fiendish Flame 1 pt W Coral 29.00 BOG Rivaliste never impressed in his both runs in UK. But Nichols is known to prepare well such a horses for festival. We have two possibilities - the animal will win with 10+ legs or we will never see him among contenders. China rock is Always among the best Irish newcomers on chases, but lack the class of them. Didn't see him comming here. The Holinwell seems to me as a 3m+ horse. The future will tell. I like Hey Big Spender from the favorits. An impressive CD winner last time. Had a class and Tizards seems in form. I would back Take the breeze if we were on soft/heavy ground. Defenetly a future big race winner during winter. Loved the way Fiendish Flame jumped last time. Corrected a lot since his previous runs. Very strong contender here and i will put my money on him. Gansey also is looking extreemly good here. Impresive last time.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTH - Thur 18 March 2.40 Cheltenham I can't beleive a whole year has passed since BARBERS SHOP last ran in a Festival, it seems like only yesterday as I remember supernapping him in this very competition............

3.20 Cheltenham - Gold Cup This is the race everyone has been waiting for and it looks a wide open renewal as sixteen horses battle out the £270k prize. Kauto Star heads the market at around 2/1 but the only time I have been drawn in by the hype that surrounds this horse was for the Gold Cup last year, when it was thrashed by Denman. Ruby Walsh has enjoyed a terrific festival and if Kauto Star was to win the race then that could put the icing on the cake for the talented Irishman. However, beaten Gold Cup horses have a miserable record of trying to regain their crown in this, and for that reason, as well as the short price, I am happy to oppose. Even though he has ten Grade 1 wins to his name he is no banker here and a few pieces of timber can ruin even the best laid out of plans no matter how solid the favourite looks on the formbook - as we have seen with Binocular, Voy Por Ustedes and Kasbah Bliss already this week. Although victorious in this race last year there is no guarantee that Denman will ever be able to reproduce that form again. Some poor work at home and a comprehensive defeat to Madison du Berlais at Kempton last month saw his price drift massively in the week preceding Cheltenham, with joint-owner Harry Findlay writing his own horse off in the media. Although he has reportedly worked much better since, there are still niggling doubts about his health after his heart operation and I am also willing to pass over that one. Neptune Collonges is third in the betting at 6/1 but like Kauto Star, he has the beaten runner trend against him. He seems to have improved since last season and has won two Grade 1 races since last March, but he must raise his game to win here as he is up against much stronger opposition. Madison du Berlais has already sprung two shocks this season when landing the Hennessy at odds of 25/1 and then beating Denman by 23 lengths last time out at Kempton. Whether he is able to repeat the dose here is open to debate but I am passing over him on the basis of his course record. It may be that he runs a much better race tomorrow now he has hit a bit of form, but I would want a little bit of stronger course form to back him at the price. Exotic Dancer won over in Ireland last time out but has repeatedly been put in his place by Kauto Star and I am looking for one that is a bit of an unknown in this company, one that could have improved since his last run and throw a spanner in the works for the Dicheat trio. I think Barber's Shop is just the horse. Nicky Henderson's horse is quite lightly raced relative to his rivals here and it is possible that he has the improvement within him to score at the highest level. The form of his second to Imperial Commander in the Paddypower Gold Cup here in November received a major boost today when the Twiston-Davies horse landed the Ryanair Chase, and his profile appeals hugely. With liftime form figures of 1/3122U/124121-21 Barber's Shop is quite similar to previous winners Kauto Star (21/11F2353/112/21F/11111) and Denman (11112/11111/111) in that he rarely finishes out of the first two. Like many winners of this race he has previous placed form at thge Festival having finished a one quarter length second to Fingeronthepulse in the 2008 Jewson. That run was only his fourth over fences after making his chase debut at Newbury and finishing quarter of a length off Big Bucks (another form boost today) before he made several mistakes in the Feltham at Kempton which meant he finished 4th of 8 in that Grade 1 race. However, he can be excused that placing because of his inexperience at the time and his recent runs suggest he is an improved horse now that deserves another go at the top level. He made mincemeat of three rivals in a weak Newbury race in April and then returned from a break to chase home Imperial Commander in the Paddypower in November back in Grade company. He jumped well throughout the race and then built on that performance with an impressive display again in a listed race at Sandown last time out over three miles. It is true to say that this field is much stronger and he must obviously put in a career best to lift the prize as he is yet to win above listed level. However, he seems to be going the right way and the manner of his victory last time out suggested he is worth a go over this slightly longer trip (only proven up to 3m) as he ran out a ready winner. I've backed this at 16/1 and 14/1 and if he was proven over the trip and in the Grade then there is no way he would have been that price, so it is a chance I was willing to take as I think the hype horses may have to step aside and make way for a new star this year. Of the others, Star de Mohaison and Alberta's Run were the other two I had in mind as outsider naps. Star de Mohaison has bounced back well from injury and has proven his class by taking the RSA three years ago. Nicholls pulled him out of the William Hill Trophy earlier in the week to prepare him for this and with the ground seeming to hold up well he looks to have claims at a price. He travelled supremely well at the track last time out before the heavy going found him out and if Barber's Shop is to be beat I hope it is by him. Alberta's Run has some very impressive course form and has also had a similar number of starts to that of previous winners. He too has won the RSA so has proven Grade 1 form, but he has been beaten twice by Madison du Berlais in his last two starts (by Kauto on the other) so for that reason he's not the one for me. If Kauto re-writes the history books then fair play, but he isn't for me at that price and I would much rather take a hopeful punt on an up and coming type with bags of potential. 2 pt win Barber's Shop - Supernap.

So what went wrong? Basically, he couldn't see out the trip and was no match for the brilliant Kauto Star, despite jumping and travelling every bit like a Graded winner for the best part of the race. Nicky Henderson put him away after the race and brought him back this season in the Hennessy where he again ran a good race but his stamina gave way and he finished back in fourth. From Newbury he went to Kempton on Boxing Day where he contested the King George and again he was beaten by Kauto Star. The run no doubt shattered any hopes connections had of breaking Paul Nicholls' domination of the 3m+ division, but nevertheless, for those prepared to accept them, there were positives to take from the performance, firstly that by finishing in third he had pretty much ran to a new career best, splitting Madison du Berlais and Nacarat, two horses that were much more at home over three miles at Kempton that day than he was. That is the last time we have seen the Barber run, but his 82 day absence does not really worry me as his record returning from 60+ day breaks reads 131224 and the step back to 2m 5f could prove the catalyst for a long overdue Graded success tomorrow. Barbers Shop, 1 pt win.