Kempton Sat 27th Feb

[StuSimmy]

3,000th post :ok 15:05 Kempton Madison Du Berlais can defy top weight by winning the Racing Post Chase tomorrow. First of all he has only had 2 runs over course and distance which have resulted in a 23 length victory over Denman in the Grade 2 Levy Board Chase and a 2nd place to Kauto Star in the King George (Grade 1). His record overall over 3 miles doesn't read too badly with form of 26132. His 3rd came at Haydock in a grade 1 race where he was again beaten by Kauto Star. He has now dropped down to a mark of 162 which is 3lbs above his win over Denman but 7lbs lower than his Grade 2 win at Ascot in April 2009. His form since then has read 234 off marks of 169 and 166 so he is definately in with a shout off today's mark in this Grade 3 race. Likely to be Soft going tomorrow which won't bother him as he has won in all sorts of ground. 0.5pts E/W Madison Du Berlais @ 9/1 (Ladrbokes - BOG)

[diamond1924]

Re: Kempton Sat 27th Feb 200 Kempton With so much confidence from the PL illuminati on Madision du Berlais, I feel extremely confident with a rather more modestly priced strike partner for my nap of the day and fingers crossed for a juicy pre-cheltenham double. Salden Licht is my selection, surprise, surprise I hear you say. Yes, I screwed up by napping him at tasty odds for the November handicap when he finished a creditable but fruitless fifth, but his first two runs for Alan King over hurdles have paid back any losses, and the horse still seems one to follow over timber. Cynics may initially point to his last run and point out that he laboured a bit, but further analysis may not prove so damning. Firstly, lets take the "lost shoe" into consideration. Allegedly he lost a shoe during the race. Did it make a difference, frankly, I don't know, I'm trusting that his performance diminished slightly as a result but I'm not too concerned. He battled gamely to win whilst giving away weight to the field. Second placed "Sarando" has since given the form a boost with a follow up win then last weekend, a second place to The Minack - beating Master of the Hall into a distant third. Fourth placed Hunterview won nto too. Gordon Elliot sends over a decent horse in Grey Soldier in search of decent ground. While I tend to follow GE very closely and put a lot of faith in him, I think Grey Soldier is just a little short of the class of a couple of these today, his second to Rite of Passage last time being his highlight, but I get the feeling that, after an obstruction RoP did just enough in that race. Grey Soldier will travel just off the lead and come into contention off the bridle but I think he'll be hard pushed to get his nose in front, though I'd think he's a stick on for some prize money. Vino Grigo won well at Wincanton last time and looks sure to pose the major threat to the selection. He wandered a bit one out when in front but looks to have bags of ability. His record at 2m is two from two. He's got me a bit worried actually :) Nicky Henderson sends out another dark horse, Ghimaar, a former Dermot Weld horse rated in treble figures on the flat (probably a 95 - 99 horse) and is a cliched "could be anything" horse. Worryingly, he could. But with no racecourse experience over timber I'll not be taking any chances, According still springs to mind... Frascati Park is a decent horse too but seems held on a formline with Vino Griego. One of these horses could place in the Supreme Novices. I've already backed Salden Licht e/w and feel confident that my selection can come out on top again in this interesting contest. :hope available at 5/2 on b365 this morning, backed at threes last night.

[diamond1924]

Re: Kempton Sat 27th Feb Mille Chief is OUT of his race today with lameness. :\

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Kempton Sat 27th Feb 1.30 DANTE HALL 16/1 E/W~Has had one run since coming from Ireland and looks sure to improve for that and has the champ on board. 2.00 COOL TOUCH 40/1 E/W~NTD 2nd string. Ran well after a couple of years off. Will have to step up on that but should improve for that run. PB has opted for NTD other runner but has a very capable replacement IMO. 3.05 PRIVATE BE 12/1 PP BOG WIN~ I,m pis!ed off as i went in to back this with SJ e/w at 18's and it had been cut to 10's!! Anyway...the horse is in good form has a lot of 2's after its name but the step up in trip may do the job. Form looks solid imo, Would be a cracking e/w bet at 18's:@ 4.10 MISTER QUASIMODO 25/1 E/W~Really like the chances of this one today even though he is tempremental at times. Has had three runs over the smaller obsticles to sharpen up. Very reasonable mark now back chasing and has a lot in his favour today. 4.45 BARON IMP 80/1 E/W~ A very small e/w bet a tiny bit at over 100 on BF. Ran well for a long time on debut when 66's will strip fitter for that and is upped in trip. Trainer and Jock had a winner the other day.

[TheRat]

Re: Kempton Sat 27th Feb Just lost my post :@ Kempton 13.30 Wolf Moon comes off the back of a win at Cheltenham and form, going and distance will all suit, unlike a few of these with question marks. Rathcor has a pull in the weight from lto but will not be enough Stow is an interesting runner here. Droping down in the weights and class could go close with Coleman back on board. If can recapture the sort of form that found him 2nd behind Mr Thriller and 3rd behind Zynar last year would go close Bets: Wolf Moon win 6.4 (3pts), Stow win 50 (1pt), Stow place 10.5 (1pt). All betfair.

[chris34]

Re: Kempton Sat 27th Feb 1.30 Kempton Several of these are stepping up in trip but Wolf Moon is actually stepping back in trip slightly and is sure to see the race out and on the back of a very impressive win at cheltenham on new years day up just 4lb for that effort which looks extremely lenient for a horse clearly improving and still looks open to yet more improvement. 1pt win wolf moon 5/1 sj

[bowles10]

Re: Kempton Sat 27th Feb 1.30 If the bookies are offering STOW at 40's, then worth a smal shout EW at those odds. The distance is probably against it to be honest with most form at a short distance but did show up this time last season with a class 2 win. The price looks too big. 0.5pts EW 40/1 skybet the rest of the card i am reluctant to get involved however there are some great prices about the 2 best trainers in the UK Nicholls and Henderson, i am thinking of mucking about with some cross doubles on the following 130 River D'or 7/2 200 gHiimaar 9/1 Escort men 14/1 230 Viking rebel 9/2 305 Fistral beach 7/2 Oedipe 16/1 340 Toubab 9/2 Soldatino 13/8 410 orscle des mottes 7/2 445 Morcombe 7/2 Ballagio 4/1 These are purely on the trainers ability to win Saturday races. Might play for very small stakes for hopefully a return on a couple of doubles.

[diamond1924]

Re: Kempton Sat 27th Feb It's almost too easy to turn a Saturday profit with thinking like that Bowlesy! Would probably only* take 3 winners to turn a profit. *as if it's that easy

[bowles10]

Re: Kempton Sat 27th Feb

It's almost too easy to turn a Saturday profit with thinking like that Bowlesy! Would probably only* take 3 winners to turn a profit. *as if it's that easy

true, i am only playing for some interest with small stakes, but i have a system running on the big races and its amazing how often these guys win as they have the best horses and the best jockeys. Nicholls is due a big day sooner or later !! :ok

[bowles10]

Re: Kempton Sat 27th Feb 1.30 race 2m 5f Hcap Hurdle Soft ground Helpston Should get the trip and has form on the ground. 8.5L 3rd to Time for Rupert this time last year. Races prominently which is key here. Numide Best form over shorter distances, trainer likes these hcap hurdles, the trip should be against it though Wolf Moon Gets the trip no problem, is raised another 7lb for recent win, should be lining up at Cheltenham at the festival so perhaps this is just to keep it fit for that race, all 3 wins have come within 1 month of a previous run so maybe keep an eye out next time. Cabinet Minister Will try to make all but may find it too tough on this ground over a longer trip Stow Loves the gorund, the drop of 5lb from last win should help also, looks a big price at around 40's today, will also be prominent taking on the lead with Cabinet Minister DAnte Hall will like the gorund and trip suits, not disgraced lTO i decent handicap River D'or ran ok in 7th in decent hcap at Doncaster LTO, cant rule out the nicholls/walsh partnership at this track. Sangfroid all decent efforts are within the first 5-6 months of the year so not without a chance, 7lb higher than best win, trip ok Clova island Wouldnt surprise me if this was in the shake up today. possibly needs to come down the weights slightly to win. Stripe me blue Not a complete outsider as the trip is ok and runs well at this time of year. Havent had time to work out the tissue prices but the following are worth a small tickle Dante Hall 16/1 B365 1pt win Stow 40/1 Skybet 0.5pts EW Helpston 7/1 B365 1pt win

[bowles10]

Re: Kempton Sat 27th Feb we were unlucky with Stow there finished 4th with a tired jump at the last, pity the 40/1 was worth taking.

[TheRat]

Re: Kempton Sat 27th Feb Yea, clattered the last in a big way Wolf Moon was poor

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Kempton Sat 27th Feb

1.30 If the bookies are offering STOW at 40's, then worth a smal shout EW at those odds. The distance is probably against it to be honest with most form at a short distance but did show up this time last season with a class 2 win. The price looks too big. 0.5pts EW 40/1 skybet the rest of the card i am reluctant to get involved however there are some great prices about the 2 best trainers in the UK Nicholls and Henderson, i am thinking of mucking about with some cross doubles on the following 130 River D'or 7/2 200 gHiimaar 9/1 Escort men 14/1 230 Viking rebel 9/2 305 Fistral beach 7/2 Oedipe 16/1 340 Toubab 9/2 Soldatino 13/8 410 orscle des mottes 7/2 445 Morcombe 7/2 Ballagio 4/1 These are purely on the trainers ability to win Saturday races. Might play for very small stakes for hopefully a return on a couple of doubles.

Well there's a not too shabby result for you in the 2nd :ok

[bowles10]

Re: Kempton Sat 27th Feb

Well there's a not too shabby result for you in the 2nd :ok

yep, as i say, i was surprised Nicholls' horses were priced up high today, i know its due to higher reputations of others etc but Kings for example havent had the same work that Nicholls has. would be nice to pick up another 1 oe 2 from that list. I left out The Nightingale as its 4/7 Punjabi was 1/6 which won for Henderson.

[bowles10]

Re: Kempton Sat 27th Feb 4.10 Babe Heffron should like it here as it should be able to dictate proceedings. Tom George was unlucky with the RP chase with Naccarat, and this one can gain some compensation. There are a few doubts about the others in the field in terms of trip and ground, but ths one could have those behind leading a bit of a merry dance. Soixante will be the danger for the lead so a small saver forecast. 13/2 Bet365 2pts win Soixant/Babe Heffron 1pt S/Fc

[diamond1924]

Re: Kempton Sat 27th Feb

true, i am only playing for some interest with small stakes, but i have a system running on the big races and its amazing how often these guys win as they have the best horses and the best jockeys. Nicholls is due a big day sooner or later !! :ok

I was watching the race as I'd lumped on Salden and immediately thought of the thread. I was going to ask you if you were still backing the Twister's horses but scrapped the post in mid flow, I'd just watched him tip up Razor Royale at 22s. During the 200Kempton race I thought, bugger it, i'm following bowles's system next winter :)

[diamond1924]

Re: Kempton Sat 27th Feb

200 Kempton With so much confidence from the PL illuminati on Madision du Berlais, I feel extremely confident with a rather more modestly priced strike partner for my nap of the day and fingers crossed for a juicy pre-cheltenham double. Salden Licht is my selection, surprise, surprise I hear you say. Yes, I screwed up by napping him at tasty odds for the November handicap when he finished a creditable but fruitless fifth, but his first two runs for Alan King over hurdles have paid back any losses, and the horse still seems one to follow over timber. Cynics may initially point to his last run and point out that he laboured a bit, but further analysis may not prove so damning. Firstly, lets take the "lost shoe" into consideration. Allegedly he lost a shoe during the race. Did it make a difference, frankly, I don't know, I'm trusting that his performance diminished slightly as a result but I'm not too concerned. He battled gamely to win whilst giving away weight to the field. Second placed "Sarando" has since given the form a boost with a follow up win then last weekend, a second place to The Minack - beating Master of the Hall into a distant third. Fourth placed Hunterview won nto too. Gordon Elliot sends over a decent horse in Grey Soldier in search of decent ground. While I tend to follow GE very closely and put a lot of faith in him, I think Grey Soldier is just a little short of the class of a couple of these today, his second to Rite of Passage last time being his highlight, but I get the feeling that, after an obstruction RoP did just enough in that race. Grey Soldier will travel just off the lead and come into contention off the bridle but I think he'll be hard pushed to get his nose in front, though I'd think he's a stick on for some prize money. Vino Grigo won well at Wincanton last time and looks sure to pose the major threat to the selection. He wandered a bit one out when in front but looks to have bags of ability. His record at 2m is two from two. He's got me a bit worried actually :) Nicky Henderson sends out another dark horse, Ghimaar, a former Dermot Weld horse rated in treble figures on the flat (probably a 95 - 99 horse) and is a cliched "could be anything" horse. Worryingly, he could. But with no racecourse experience over timber I'll not be taking any chances, According still springs to mind... Frascati Park is a decent horse too but seems held on a formline with Vino Griego. One of these horses could place in the Supreme Novices. I've already backed Salden Licht e/w and feel confident that my selection can come out on top again in this interesting contest. :hope available at 5/2 on b365 this morning, backed at threes last night.

I'm a numpty, completely retired till Cheltenham :\

[chris34]

Re: Kempton Sat 27th Feb Wolf moon extremely disappointing today!!

[bowles10]

Re: Kempton Sat 27th Feb

Wolf moon extremely disappointing today!!

did you read what i noted Chris, each win has come within a month of running, so today was a no go, yet keep an eye on it next time within a month? I felt it might be going for the pertemps this year at Cheltenham so i feel this was just a prep

[bowles10]

Re: Kempton Sat 27th Feb

I was watching the race as I'd lumped on Salden and immediately thought of the thread. I was going to ask you if you were still backing the Twister's horses but scrapped the post in mid flow' date=' I'd just watched him tip up Razor Royale at 22s. During the 200Kempton race I thought, bugger it, i'm following bowles's system next winter :)[/quote'] So am I! Yep, has certainly paid off to follow those 4 trainers on Saturdays. :ok

[bowles10]

Re: Kempton Sat 27th Feb

1.30 If the bookies are offering STOW at 40's, then worth a smal shout EW at those odds. The distance is probably against it to be honest with most form at a short distance but did show up this time last season with a class 2 win. The price looks too big. 0.5pts EW 40/1 skybet the rest of the card i am reluctant to get involved however there are some great prices about the 2 best trainers in the UK Nicholls and Henderson, i am thinking of mucking about with some cross doubles on the following 130 River D'or 7/2 200 gHiimaar 9/1 Escort men 14/1 1st 16/1:ok 230 Viking rebel 9/2 305 Fistral beach 7/2 Oedipe 16/1 340 Toubab 9/2 2nd Soldatino 13/8 1st 7/4:ok 410 orscle des mottes 7/2 3rd 445 Morcombe 7/2 Ballagio 4/1 These are purely on the trainers ability to win Saturday races. Might play for very small stakes for hopefully a return on a couple of doubles.

Stow was 4th at 40's after a very tired jump at the last. Ran well at a decent price In the doubles, 51 doubles from the 11 selections, 1pt win doubles would return 46.75pts, so just a small loss. pity another couldnt come in to make it a profit.

[chris34]

Re: Kempton Sat 27th Feb

did you read what i noted Chris' date=' each win has come within a month of running, so today was a no go, yet keep an eye on it next time within a month? I felt it might be going for the pertemps this year at Cheltenham so i feel this was just a prep[/quote'] No I hadnt read your comment on him, but very interesting and yes I think he could be of a lot more interest back at Cheltenham he has proven form there which is always important! Fingers crossed!! Cheers Bowles!