Boom Or Bust#3

[skylark2009]

Boom Or Bust#3 This is a continuation of the Boom Or Bust series that I started in the Glory Hunt section of the PL forum, the selection methods used in those two threads are the same for this. Boom Or Bust#1 was very successful and resulted in an overall profit of £829.25. Bets....................................145 Wins...................................68 Placed (E/W bets).................4 Strike rate...........................46.90% Total staked........................7313.20 Total returns incl stake.........8142.45 Start bank...........................200 End bank............................1029.25 Profit/loss...........................829.25 Yield..................................11.34% Boom Or Bust#2 ended up with an overall loss of £365.32 Bets....................................38 Wins...................................14 Strike rate............................36.84% Total staked.........................1853.82 Total returns incl stake..........1488.50 Start bank............................829.25 End bank..............................463.93 Profit/loss............................-365.32 Yield...................................-19.71% System The methods that I used to arrive at the selections were to apply different groups of criteria to a ten year database of last time out winners (flat racing) in the form of filters, to create different subsets of possible selections or different systems if you like. The number of 'systems' is 40+ which when combined together produce on average around 250 to 300 possible 'WIN' selections throughout the year. And an example of a filter or system could be. #1 Won last race #2 8yo only #3 is running in same class of race or going down in class today #4 the SP in todays race is less than evens (selection is odds on) - SP cap to be applied Due to the diversity of the criteria it is impractical to list every system, but the basis for this thread is to follow last time out winners in a variety of ways with WIN, E/W, PLACE or LAY bets. Staking I'll use a points system of 1 through to 10 points, with a 'boom or bust' element of a 25pts depending on the strength of the selection. LAY bets - the points awarded will represent the LIABILITY. E/W bets - for record keeping purposes E/W bets will be split into two bets, as a win single and as a place single with half of the points going onto each part (max size for these will probably be 5pts E/W). A large proportion of the 'systems' have an 'SP cap' applied, E.G. if SP is bigger than 3/1 then no bet, if SP is bigger than 6/4 then no bet etc. If I post up a definite selection that then fails on this point then the selection will remain part of the thread. NB - Unlike the Glory Hunt 'Boom Or Bust' threads, I wont have a starting bank so I won't be applying any growth/reduction factor to the points awarded. But for information, each 1pt would represent 0.5% of any betting bank, making a 10pt bet equal to 5% of any betting bank or a total betting bank starting size of 200 points.

[skylark2009]

Re: Boom Or Bust#3 And to kick off this new thread.

1.25 Southwell Maoi Chinn Tire 7pts

WIN

@ 2/1 Bet365 BOG 2.20 Southwell Total Impact 7pts

WIN

@ 1/1 SkyBet 2.20 Southwell Colorus

LAY to win

6pts @ 3.6 Betfair - risk 5.98pts to win 2.18pts after commission 2.55 Sou Friends Hope

LAY to win

5pts @ 2.72 Betfair - risk 4.99pts to win 2.76pts after commission 2.55 Southwell My Mate Mal 3pts

PLACE

@ 1.99 Betfair - (NB this bet hasn't been matched at this sp and may be cancelled, but I have set it to 'Keep In Play') 7.15 Wolverhampton Augustus John 6pts

PLACE

@ 2.02 Betfair - to win 5.81pts after commission 8.15 Wolverhampton Albero De Giuda 9pts

PLACE

@ 1.38 Betfair - to win 3.25pts after commission