skylark2009 Posted February 12, 2010 Share Posted February 12, 2010 Boom Or Bust#3 This is a continuation of the Boom Or Bust series that I started in the Glory Hunt section of the PL forum, the selection methods used in those two threads are the same for this. Boom Or Bust#1 was very successful and resulted in an overall profit of £829.25. Bets....................................145 Wins...................................68 Placed (E/W bets).................4 Strike rate...........................46.90% Total staked........................7313.20 Total returns incl stake.........8142.45 Start bank...........................200 End bank............................1029.25 Profit/loss...........................829.25 Yield..................................11.34% Boom Or Bust#2 ended up with an overall loss of £365.32 Bets....................................38 Wins...................................14 Strike rate............................36.84% Total staked.........................1853.82 Total returns incl stake..........1488.50 Start bank............................829.25 End bank..............................463.93 Profit/loss............................-365.32 Yield...................................-19.71% System The methods that I used to arrive at the selections were to apply different groups of criteria to a ten year database of last time out winners (flat racing) in the form of filters, to create different subsets of possible selections or different systems if you like. The number of 'systems' is 40+ which when combined together produce on average around 250 to 300 possible 'WIN' selections throughout the year. And an example of a filter or system could be. #1 Won last race #2 8yo only #3 is running in same class of race or going down in class today #4 the SP in todays race is less than evens (selection is odds on) - SP cap to be applied Due to the diversity of the criteria it is impractical to list every system, but the basis for this thread is to follow last time out winners in a variety of ways with WIN, E/W, PLACE or LAY bets. Staking I'll use a points system of 1 through to 10 points, with a 'boom or bust' element of a 25pts depending on the strength of the selection. LAY bets - the points awarded will represent the LIABILITY. E/W bets - for record keeping purposes E/W bets will be split into two bets, as a win single and as a place single with half of the points going onto each part (max size for these will probably be 5pts E/W). A large proportion of the 'systems' have an 'SP cap' applied, E.G. if SP is bigger than 3/1 then no bet, if SP is bigger than 6/4 then no bet etc. If I post up a definite selection that then fails on this point then the selection will remain part of the thread. NB - Unlike the Glory Hunt 'Boom Or Bust' threads, I wont have a starting bank so I won't be applying any growth/reduction factor to the points awarded. But for information, each 1pt would represent 0.5% of any betting bank, making a 10pt bet equal to 5% of any betting bank or a total betting bank starting size of 200 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 12, 2010 Author Share Posted February 12, 2010 Re: Boom Or Bust#3 And to kick off this new thread. 1.25 Southwell Maoi Chinn Tire 7pts WIN @ 2/1 Bet365 BOG 2.20 Southwell Total Impact 7pts WIN @ 1/1 SkyBet 2.20 Southwell Colorus LAY to win 6pts @ 3.6 Betfair - risk 5.98pts to win 2.18pts after commission 2.55 Sou Friends Hope LAY to win 5pts @ 2.72 Betfair - risk 4.99pts to win 2.76pts after commission 2.55 Southwell My Mate Mal 3pts PLACE @ 1.99 Betfair - (NB this bet hasn't been matched at this sp and may be cancelled, but I have set it to 'Keep In Play') 7.15 Wolverhampton Augustus John 6pts PLACE @ 2.02 Betfair - to win 5.81pts after commission 8.15 Wolverhampton Albero De Giuda 9pts PLACE @ 1.38 Betfair - to win 3.25pts after commission Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted February 12, 2010 Share Posted February 12, 2010 Re: Boom Or Bust#3 Good luck with this Skylark. Interesting that the same group of systems produce back and lay bets. I like systems which are a combination of systems thus enabling greater flexibility in the criteria for selection. I use about 20 systems to create my thread and they should produce a not disimilar number of win bets a year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted February 12, 2010 Share Posted February 12, 2010 Re: Boom Or Bust#3 goodluck skylark:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 12, 2010 Author Share Posted February 12, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 13, 2010 Author Share Posted February 13, 2010 Re: Boom Or Bust#3 Three for today. 7.20 Wolverhampton Tiger Hawk 4pts PLACE @ 1.42 Betfair - to win 1.6pts after commission 8.20 Wolverhampton Fazbee LAY to win 4pts @ 2.42 Betfair - risk 3.88pts to win 2.59pts 9.20 Wolverhampton Quinsman 4pts WIN @ 5/2 Boylesports BOG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 13, 2010 Author Share Posted February 13, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 14, 2010 Author Share Posted February 14, 2010 Re: Boom Or Bust#3 One definite for tomorrow, two other possibles (Bookiesindex Girl and Dhhamaan) but there are no SP's or enough liquidity on Betfair at this time. So I will wait till tomorrow for these. 4.10 Wolverhampton Hannicean LAY to win 5pts @ 4.49 Betfair - risk 4.98pts to win 1.35pts after commission Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 15, 2010 Author Share Posted February 15, 2010 Re: Boom Or Bust#3 Update In the 4.40 Wolverhampton Bookiesindex Girl had the potential to be a 7pt win bet if the SP is 6/4 or less, the current price is around 7/2 so NO BET. 5.10 Wolverhampton Dhhamaan LAY to win 5pts @ 8 Betfair – risk 4.98pts to win 0.68pts after commission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 15, 2010 Author Share Posted February 15, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 17, 2010 Author Share Posted February 17, 2010 Re: Boom Or Bust#3 Two win bets for today in the evening meeting. 5.40 Kempton Breathless Kiss 5pts WIN @ 2/1 Boylesport BOG 8.10 Kempton Ginger Grey 6pt WIN @ 5/2 Paddy Power BOG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 17, 2010 Author Share Posted February 17, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 23, 2010 Author Share Posted February 23, 2010 Re: Boom Or Bust#3 Just one for today, a six point bet on Granny McPhee who won yesterday and is going for a quick two timer. 5.10 Lingfield Granny McPhee 6pts WIN @ 6/4 BetFred BOG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 23, 2010 Author Share Posted February 23, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 25, 2010 Author Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Boom Or Bust#3 Four picks for today. 4.20 Southwell Wyatt Earp 4pts LAY to win @ 6.4 Betfair - risk 3.99pts to win 0.70pts after commission 5.20 Southwell Isitcozimcool 7pts WIN @ 2.12 Betfair - to win 7.47pts after commission 8.10 Kempton Ocean Legend 5pts PLACE @ 2.15 Betfair - to win 5.46pts after commission 8.40 Kempton King Olav LAY to win 5pts @ 5.9 Betfair - risk 4.99pts to win 0.97pts after commission Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 26, 2010 Author Share Posted February 26, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 27, 2010 Author Share Posted February 27, 2010 Re: Boom Or Bust#3 Two win bets and one place bet today. 2.40 Lingfield Spruce 7pts WIN @ 5/6 Paddy Power BOG 3.50 Lingfield Jaconet 5pts WIN @ 10/11 Bet365 BOG 16.55 Lingfield Elna Bright 4pts PLACE @ 1.96 Betfair - NB I have set this one to 'Keep In Play' so it may not be matched (currently 1.76). If matched could win 4.56pts after commission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 27, 2010 Author Share Posted February 27, 2010 Re: Boom Or Bust#3 Two win bets and one place bet today. 2.40 Lingfield Spruce 7pts WIN @ 5/6 Paddy Power BOG 3.50 Lingfield Jaconet 5pts WIN @ 10/11 Bet365 BOG 16.55 Lingfield Elna Bright 4pts PLACE @ 1.96 Betfair - NB I have set this one to 'Keep In Play' so it may not be matched (currently 1.76). If matched could win 4.56pts after commission. Oops, Elna Bright would return 3.65pts after commission not 4.56pts! (if matched). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 27, 2010 Author Share Posted February 27, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 28, 2010 Author Share Posted February 28, 2010 Re: Boom Or Bust#3 One lay bet today. 4.25 Kempton Isle De Maurice LAY to win 6pts @ 5.5 Betfair - risk 5.99pts to win 1.26pts after commission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 28, 2010 Author Share Posted February 28, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted March 1, 2010 Author Share Posted March 1, 2010 Re: Boom Or Bust#3 One win bet for today. I managed to get 6/5 with Bluesquare earlier, but is now generally 11/10. 5.40 Wolverhampton Saddlers Bend 5pts WIN @ 6/5 Bluesquare Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted March 1, 2010 Author Share Posted March 1, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted March 2, 2010 Author Share Posted March 2, 2010 Re: Boom Or Bust#3 Two bets so far for tomorrow with a couple of other 'hopefuls'.The two bets are both on the same horse, one is a 3pt win bet and the second is a 6pt place bet (saver bet if the horse only manages to place). I've posted these two tonight as I might not be home in time tomorrow. 3.30 Wolverhampton Desert Recluse 3pts WIN @ 3.4 Betfair - to win 6.84pts after commission 3.30 Wolverhampton Desert Recluse 6pts PLACE @ 1.65 Betfair - to win 3.70pts after commission Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted March 3, 2010 Author Share Posted March 3, 2010 Re: Boom Or Bust#3 Two more bets for today. 5.00 Wolverhampton Straboe LAY to win 4pts @ 3.7 Betfair - risk 3.99pts to win 1.40pts after commission 5.30 wolverhampton Smalljohn LAY to win 4pts @ 4.2 Betfair - risk 4pts to win 1.18pts after commission Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted March 3, 2010 Author Share Posted March 3, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted March 4, 2010 Author Share Posted March 4, 2010 Re: Boom Or Bust#3 Late start, but one bet so far. 3.10 Southwell Love Delta 6pts PLACE @ 1.45 Betfair - to win 2.56pts after commission Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted March 4, 2010 Author Share Posted March 4, 2010 Re: Boom Or Bust#3 Two more, one win bet and a lay bet in the same race. 4.10 Southwell Spruce 6pts WIN @ 11/10 Bet365 BOG 4.10 Southwell Reverend Green LAY to win 6pts @ 3.55 Betfair - risk 5.99pts to win 2.23pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted March 4, 2010 Author Share Posted March 4, 2010 Re: Boom Or Bust#3 Last bet for today. 8.20 Wolverhampton Saddlers Bend 10pts WIN @ 10/11 Boylesport BOG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted March 4, 2010 Author Share Posted March 4, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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