dannkez2407 Posted January 28, 2010 Share Posted January 28, 2010 Morning all A lot of people always come on here and try to grasp the concept of value betting, this article on sports punter, in my opinion, cracks it in a nutshell http://www.sports-punter.com/index.php?p=pages/gaininganedge So it gave me an interesting idea, lets put the concept of not just 'backing the winner' to the test. The system for now will be paper trialled, it will involve looking for a clear outsider, i havent decided on the minimum odds, but i think anything over 7.0 would be a good start. Using this i will quantify the chances of that team winning using my probablities that are used on my other value thread on here, and if they represent value, they will be backed. The system will only include league matches, and they will be from all over the world. My aim is for a 15% yield over a minimum of 100 selections, so only matches that represent value of 15% of more will be selected. Ill post selections shortly....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 28, 2010 Author Share Posted January 28, 2010 Re: value in the outsider For Saturday Hamilton v Celtic - Hamilton win @ 9, value odds 5.26 representing value of 71% Bayern Munich v Mainz - Mainz win @ 17.5, value at 3.85, 455% just for now, ive found 19 other selections to go through for saturday so will post them later when i have time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted January 28, 2010 Share Posted January 28, 2010 Re: value in the outsider No idea how you select your value outsiders. But something shows me, there must be a huge problem with the selection mode. A Mainz win in Munich can never never never be fair value at 3.85. This looks terribly wrong. And just to make sure, I checked the Munich home game odds for the last couple of years. Except for Werder Bremen visiting in 06-07 season, no away team was ever quoted 3.85 or below to win at Munich. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 28, 2010 Author Share Posted January 28, 2010 Re: value in the outsider apologies if i didnt explain it right but taking in to account previous form and h2h history, a % is calculated as to the teams chances of winning. In Mainz case it was 25.97%, hence the value odds being what they are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted January 28, 2010 Share Posted January 28, 2010 Re: value in the outsider Still does not explain. - Bayern won last 3 home, unbeaten for 13 home. - Bayern did not lose a match, home or away, since September. - Mainz lost last 3 away, did not win last 7 away. - There were 3 games at Munich ever, all Bayern. - There were 7 overall games ever, 5 Bayern, 1 draw, 1 Mainz. So neither with recent form nor with H2H, I cannot imagine why your formula shall give 1 in 4 to Mainz. Only thing is that Mainz won the 1st leg 2-1. That was a stunner. If such single event 5 months ago leads to such percentage, then something is wrong. (Opinion, not wisdom, of course!) Or perhaps you should check the data input once again? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 28, 2010 Author Share Posted January 28, 2010 Re: value in the outsider the % is correct, but i think you are missing the point, im not saying mainz have any chance of winning, in fact bayern are heavily favoured. its with a price of 17, that value is clearly there even if they were considered as having just a 10% chance of winning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 28, 2010 Share Posted January 28, 2010 Re: value in the outsider Happened to chance upon this mini 'exchange'. Went to take a look at the league table and I realized Mainz is ranked 8th in the table. I don't follow the German League, but the odds of 17 for a mid-table team seems value on first look. I think the point dannkez2407 is trying to get across is that, as long as he thinks Mainz has at least 6% of winning, it's value bet. Because in the long run, if you get 6 out of 100 times correct for odds 17, there's still a positive 2% yield. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted January 28, 2010 Share Posted January 28, 2010 Re: value in the outsider I'm familiar with the concept of value. And to be honest, picking Mainz at odds of 17.00, no problem at all. That's possible. So I don't argue against your pick as it is. Also, I'm not arguing if Mainz has 10% chance of winning in Munich or if it's 6%. But whatever formula you are using, it says it's 25% chance of winning. So you'd even pick Mainz at 4.00 or 5.00. And for someone who knows quite of lot of Bundesliga, I tell you that those 25% is as realistic as if I tell you, there is a 25% chance that Jennifer Aniston will accept my marriage proposal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 28, 2010 Share Posted January 28, 2010 Re: value in the outsider Ah, I see what you mean. Pardon me for my stupidity! :spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 28, 2010 Author Share Posted January 28, 2010 Re: value in the outsider lets just agree to disagree, the formulas i use have proven to work on a lot of my systems so the proof will be in the pudding as they say Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted January 28, 2010 Share Posted January 28, 2010 Re: value in the outsider lets just agree to disagree' date=' the formulas i use have proven to work on a lot of my systems so the proof will be in the pudding as they say[/quote'] I'm also intrigued as to how you got such a figure, are you willing to explain what variables go into calculating your value? You don't have to state what the formulae is, just what you pump into it. I'm sure you aren't the only one who sees the Mainz bet as value, but I can't imagine that there are many others who have them at 3.85 for this game. Just wondering, you said "the formulas i use have proven to work on a lot of my systems", how many of these were involving football? Have you done any backtesting to support this particular system? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 28, 2010 Author Share Posted January 28, 2010 Re: value in the outsider hi lunatism, i have another thread on here in this section that i use it on, the formulas i use would take a while to explain. if i find time later ill explain them, i to was shocked at the outcome, but the formula has proven to work so far. anyways, can we all stop talking about this particular match, ill be posting the other selections soon and i think we all agree mainz is a value bet in any case Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted January 28, 2010 Share Posted January 28, 2010 Re: value in the outsider i to was shocked at the outcome' date=' but the formula has proven to work so far.[/quote'] you said that you're targeting 15% yield over 100 matches - what if you could increase your yield by improving the formula? Maybe it IS good at finding value games (but just happens to price them off a tad) - if your fair odds were a little more realistic, then maybe your profits would increase too? (this is just a logical point, but who knows for sure what will happen? i guess we'll have to wait until the match) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 29, 2010 Author Share Posted January 29, 2010 Re: value in the outsider im only playin about not talkin about it, i need to pull my finger out and put more selections up. For ease of timing ill only be able to post domestic selections and other major european premier leagues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 Re: value in the outsider After watching most of the Bayern v Mainz game this afternoon, we can at least say that this was really a value bet. Bayern did struggle far more than one should except against odds of 17. (Although Mainz still did not leave me with a 3.85 impression.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 Re: value in the outsider After watching most of the Bayern v Mainz game this afternoon' date=' we can at least say that this was really a value bet. Bayern did struggle far more than one should except against odds of 17. (Although Mainz still did not leave me with a 3.85 impression.)[/quote'] i kept an eye on it via the flashscore text commentary, and it read like Bayern were battering them: 64% Ball possession36% 20 Goal attempts4 11 Shots on goal2 9 Shots off goal2 13 Free kicks10 9 Corner kicks1 0 Offsides1 12 Throw ins11 2 Goalkeeper saves6 3 Goal kicks11 10 Fouls12 1 Yellow cards1 And given that pre-game Bayern had a 31% shot on target to goal ratio, the fact that they managed 11 shots on target and got three goals (and missed a penalty) seems to be exactly what they deserved. How different was the game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 Re: value in the outsider How different was the game? Midfield and possession were all Bayern, no doubt. But that is not very surprising if you have an away side defending with basically 10 men and having only one upfront hoping for the lucky punch. Bayern had a lot of shots on goal looking impressive in the statistics sheet, but they were mostly harmless. So besides hitting the post once and missing a penalty in the 1st half, there was no real threat to the Mainz goal in the first 45. Since it took Bayern some 60 mins to score the first, and that only because of a terrible error of Mainz goalkeeper, I have seen teams with better odds get beaten more worse and starting earlier in Bayern stadium. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 Re: value in the outsider Midfield and possession were all Bayern' date=' no doubt. But that is not very surprising if you have an away side defending with basically 10 men and having only one upfront hoping for the lucky punch. Bayern had a lot of shots on goal looking impressive in the statistics sheet, but they were mostly harmless. So besides hitting the post once and missing a penalty in the 1st half, there was no real threat to the Mainz goal in the first 45. Since it took Bayern some 60 mins to score the first, and that only because of a terrible error of Mainz goalkeeper, I have seen teams with better odds get beaten more worse and starting earlier in Bayern stadium.[/quote'] thanks :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 Re: value in the outsider You're welcome. And btw the Bayern penalty nearly became the best chance in the whole game for Mainz to score their lucky punch. The spot kick was taken by the Bayern goalie, was deflected to a Mainz player and if he would have reacted somewhat faster, then maybe ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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