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Kempton (AW) 24/01

Lars

By Lars
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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Lars

Lars

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One bet for me I think. No idea if I'll have time to strike it tomorrow so it might be an SP job tonight, which cost me a few quid today with Gargano being backed in heavily :\ 4:35 Kempton. Perlachy's "forecasted" price seems to have been based on his last run in a 5f dash at Wolverhampton. However, has never really done well recently running at that distance and I believe that 6f is it's specialist distance. Has mainly run at Wolverhampton recently, the 5f race LTO he was up against types rated 85 and performed with a bit of credit, so it would be unfair to hold that against him. Before that finished 3rd behind the very nice Anne of Kiev and the forever consistent Colorus, again in a 5f race but was running on. A week before raced over CD and finished 2.5l behind the winner, who is now rated 82. Today effectively races of 63 with Kelly Harrison on board claiming 3lbs. Last win over 6f came off 64 and that was from a wide draw. Jockey hasn't won yet this year but has had her fair share of close calls on big priced horses so shouldn't be too much of a concern. Perlachy won here before and out of poor draws. Isn't too badly drawn here today and is against types more within it's range. Definitely has a chance to make the frame. EW @ SP

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Tedthewolf

Tedthewolf

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Re: Kempton (AW) 24/01 I'll not be around tomorrow but will have a small e/w bet on CROIX ROUGE hopefully a decent double figure price. This horse has won at this distance on the AW in Spain and is on a very low mark here now to do a bit of damage and a better run last so hope he can go on from that. Trainers horse tend to drift in the betting but he gets good priced winners.

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Lars

Lars

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Re: Kempton (AW) 24/01

I'll not be around tomorrow but will have a small e/w bet on CROIX ROUGE hopefully a decent double figure price. This horse has won at this distance on the AW in Spain and is on a very low mark here now to do a bit of damage and a better run last so hope he can go on from that. Trainers horse tend to drift in the betting but he gets good priced winners.
I saw one of there horses won this week at Lingfield, Expensive Problem (the one that won at Windsor anyway on it's first race back on). I know you like backing the Spanish raced contingent so wondered if you were on that day? (Know this takes the thread a bit off-topic!)
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Tedthewolf

Tedthewolf

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Re: Kempton (AW) 24/01

I saw one of there horses won this week at Lingfield' date=' Expensive Problem (the one that won at Windsor anyway on it's first race back on). I know you like backing the Spanish raced contingent so wondered if you were on that day? (Know this takes the thread a bit off-topic!)[/quote'] No i didn't was a bit pissed off when i seen it won :lol 14's i think. Its funny his horses seem to be out the back nowhere or win. Haley's on top of that one tomorrow which makes me think it will be trying. Wouldn't you if Haley was on top of you:tongue2
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fintron

fintron

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Re: Kempton (AW) 24/01 4.05 Kempton I think there may be a lack of pace on here, much may depend on if Tamasou can get over from a wide draw, although this is over the outer track so I suppose Hayley has longer to manoevre before the first bend. However, he is racing from down the bottom of the handicap and may be put in his place in this company so I fancy Espirit de Midas, progessive on fibresand and who transferred that form onto turf this season so may be able to similarly transfer it over to polytrack here. Sire Namid produces plenty of AW winners and the horse may still have a bit more improvement to give. It could be significant that Fergus Sweeney (very capable from the front) has been booked over someone like Amy Ryan who I assume would have been used had Ryan (who is bang in form) felt the handicapper has his measure. Drawn centrally and could be up with the pace and find himself well positioned if it gets messy in behind. 20/1 Bet 365 (3 places, 1/4 odds).

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georgeCOSTANZA

georgeCOSTANZA

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Re: Kempton (AW) 24/01

Tip Detail
Sport Horse Racing
Event KEMPTON - 14:00
Selection CHAMPAGNE FIZZ (Each-Way)
Strength 5/10
Date 24/01/2010
Bookmaker/Price Betfred @ SP (Back)
Reasoning KEMPTON 14:00 Betdaq.co.uk Handicap (4yo+, Class 5, 1m 3f, 14 runners) CHAMPAGNE FIZZ Easy winner of her maiden at this course and distance last month. Won by 2 lengths to DOVEDON ANGEL and the 15-8 favorite RYKER. Been off for 39 days but comes in having a trainer and jockey in top form. Trainer Miss J Crowley have 2 wins from her last 7 going into this. She had a winner 12 days ago by 6 lengths. Jockey Andrea Atzeni have ridden 6 winners the last 14 days, 36 rides.
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markmywords

markmywords

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Re: Kempton (AW) 24/01 16:05 Indian Skipper - 1 1/2 length behing Arganil Or108 and Aeroplane OR 102 10 days ago in a conditions stakes. Day before that knew how to get his nose infront beating Brave Echo and Carnivore by slt head and 2 lengths ahead of Seek the Fair Land. Loses 5lb claimer and 1lb to Seek the Fair Land but being one of Jim Crowley's only two rides the other being another Guest horse Kames Park I'll go EW 10/1 general.

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fintron

fintron

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Re: Kempton (AW) 24/01 3.00 Kempton Perfect Class - looked in need of the run when fading over this trip last time out but form prior to that proves she sees out a mile. The drop into fillies only company could prove key, as could the decision to hand the reins over to Luke Morris. Only a couple of pounds higher than when winning at Bath, not been overly raced since, yard had a recent winner from just three runners, could go well here. 7/1 Bet 365. EW.

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diamond1924

diamond1924

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Re: Kempton (AW) 24/01

4.05 Kempton I think there may be a lack of pace on here, much may depend on if Tamasou can get over from a wide draw, although this is over the outer track so I suppose Hayley has longer to manoevre before the first bend. However, he is racing from down the bottom of the handicap and may be put in his place in this company so I fancy Espirit de Midas, progessive on fibresand and who transferred that form onto turf this season so may be able to similarly transfer it over to polytrack here. Sire Namid produces plenty of AW winners and the horse may still have a bit more improvement to give. It could be significant that Fergus Sweeney (very capable from the front) has been booked over someone like Amy Ryan who I assume would have been used had Ryan (who is bang in form) felt the handicapper has his measure. Drawn centrally and could be up with the pace and find himself well positioned if it gets messy in behind. 20/1 Bet 365 (3 places, 1/4 odds).
Fin, I read last weekend, or the one before, that Amy was taking a 6 week break after riding tiddliwinks (holiday in Africa included) with the aim of preserving her 5lb claim. Fingers crossed for the selection, he's risen a fair amount in the handicap now, hopefully the faster surface will help today, Fergus Sweeney has ridden some decent winners for Kevin Ryan too including Lewyn at Wolverhampton during the week, hopefully the 50 day break hasn't been too much, but he won fto last winter.
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jayalexander

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Re: Kempton (AW) 24/01

4pm Kempton Seek The Fair Land Selection has had 11 days rest for this class 3 handicap. Rating has since dropped a point, but still a classy runner in this field. Is a CD winner and runs from stall 6, today. Record reads 41224, so has pretty decent form. 4:35pm Kempton Another Try A little over a month's rest for this 6f race. LTO finished 2nd. Has won over the same distance previously and today the selection's rating has improved. Only slight worry is that it runs from stall 1. Both of these selections are available at 9/2 on boylesports. They are also the only selections today on a system that I am trialling.
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chris34

chris34

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Re: Kempton (AW) 24/01 2.00 Kempton Angels Quest looks a massive price on form hasnt been seen on the track for 519days so nothing to get excited about BUT when last seen she was second on handicap debut and although the race has turned out very little she is reduced 3lb so handicapper giving her a chance on her come back and she is completely unexposed and lightly raced and although has to prove she stays this trip she could go well if fit and ready. Franco is my name is another unexposed type hacing shown little in maiden company yet went well in handicap company beating the consistent chanarossa now up 6lb and tackling theis slightly longer trip but nonetheless is open to plenty more improvement but draw is a concern. The final one that i like is Shanafarahan who rattled up a hatrick on the all weather last winter and now returns to a 1lb higher mark than last win and had looked to need a couple of runs to blow the cob webs out previously but last time out he showed more of what he was capable of finishing 5th and should now be reaching peak fitness. 0.1pt e/w Angels Quest 50/1 pp 0.3pt win Franco is my Name 5/1 bet365 0.25pt e/w shanafarahan 9/1 vcbet 3.00 Kempton Cant have the favourite vertigo on course, he is proving very expensive to follow having been a beaten favourite 4 times and although sure to strip fitter for latest run at southwell still have my doubts tho. Young dottie looks overpriced and I guess they are basing some of the price on the 0 beside her name last time out, prior to that she looked better than ever beating Mister Green by a neck who went on to land a big gamble this week (in the race young dottie got a 0 in!) She is up 4lb for that effort and last time out can be excused as saddle slipped but has a nice draw today and should be thereabouts again. 0.5pt e/w young dottie 5/1 hills 3.35 Kempton Just timmy marcus looks a massive price for a consistent sort he has been placed 4 out of his last 5 starts and was staying on really eye catchingly last time out at wolverhapton, 1lb rise in handicap should cause much difference and first time visor is on today and will hopefully bring a little more out of him and a switch to kempton for a change cant do any harm with all runs on polytrack coming at wolverhampton. 0.5pt e/w just timmy marcus 10/1 boylessport 4.05 Kempton Competitive affair and my mate Autumn Blades is due to go today, but has to run off a new handicap mark today and 6lb penalty making things a hell of a lot harsher aswell as a wide draw and hard race yesterday sure to take its toll. Orpsie boy run with real promise on comeback last time out and sure to be fitter today off the same mark having finished 3rd behind tourist and he has won off marks 8lb higher than this and if back to his best he could have a say in this race. The other interesting one is Espirit De Midas and I just cant understand the price, he didnt beat a rival on reappearance at southwell a month half ago but perhaps needed the run after 200 days off the track but prior to that racked a hatrick up on fibresand and then a disappointment there, until bouncing back on one race on turf winning at Leicester is now 9lb higher than that win BUT is relatively unexposed and did beat some classy rivals that day and beat them well, yet to race on polytrack so be interesting to see how he goes. 0.25pt e/w Espririt De Midas 25/1 pp 0.5pt e/w orpsie boy 10/1 pp

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fintron

fintron

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Re: Kempton (AW) 24/01

Fin' date=' I read last weekend, or the one before, that Amy was taking a 6 week break after riding tiddliwinks (holiday in Africa included) with the aim of preserving her 5lb claim. Fingers crossed for the selection, he's risen a fair amount in the handicap now, hopefully the faster surface will help today, Fergus Sweeney has ridden some decent winners for Kevin Ryan too including Lewyn at Wolverhampton during the week, hopefully the 50 day break hasn't been too much, but he won fto last winter.[/quote'] Ah, that clears that one up. I've been impressed with Amy Ryan, it makes sense to use that claim to the advantage on the turf yeah. Fergus Sweeny is very underrated in my opinion. His ride on Comadoir earlier in the season, from a wide draw at Lingfield, was outstanding. He won on another front runner, Dove Cottage I think it was called, and I hope he can hit the front here and cling on. No money is coming for it yet though so I could well be onto a dud....
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fintron

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Re: Kempton (AW) 24/01

Not surprised to see tips for Espririt De Midas' date=' looks a monster price (28/1 sportingbet), often these bets come to nothing but worth a pop![/quote'] I've been swayed. Have also backed it at 25/1 with Stan James now, as I want to have the best odds guarantee. :hope
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Stevet1859

Stevet1859

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Re: Kempton (AW) 24/01 4:35 Kempton: Milne Bay 2pts win 11/1 William Hill & Sutton Venny 1pt win 8/1 Bet365 Milne Bay looks to be coming to the boil again, he had three good wins at Great Leighs a while back, the highest of those off 62. He didn't race during the summer but went close here off 71 in September. He was probably up against it behind Tiddliwinks last time here but ran ok from a poor draw. With a slight drop in grade and a better draw could go close today. Sutton Venny won well last time and only up three pounds for that. Several down the field have run well since, the sixth won yesterday. Likely to go close again.

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Stevet1859

Stevet1859

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Re: Kempton (AW) 24/01 3:00 Kempton: Farleigh: 2pts win 9/1 Blue Square Farleigh looks an interesting sort for Andrew Balding, very lightly raced and open to plenty of improvement. Previous form not enough to win this, however has twice gone well fresh, and Andrew Balding is in good form.

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StuSimmy

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Re: Kempton (AW) 24/01 14:00 Kempton There are 2 that interest me here in the opener. Resentful Angel is still fairly lightly raced and I believe there is more to come from her. Has had 15 runs in her career with 2 wins and 6 places from those runs. She's been very consistent in the winter months with form of 1312 over 9-10 furlongs on the AW. Was 2nd here over 10 furlongs LTO and seemed to have been given too much to do as she had no chance with the winner despite running on well, this will be her first try at 11 furlongs which should suit her. Toby Atkinson takes off 5lbs today so she is technically 3lbs better off than that race LTO. He has been on board for both her wins to date so he should know how to get her up to win. Champagne Fizz returns here today after winning a maiden race by 2 lengths over course and distance LTO off a mark of 55. This was her first run at the course and over the trip so it will be interesting to see how she fares back in handicap company today. Is 17lbs lower than her first run in a handicap race and 1lb lower than her last run in hadicap company. Andrea Atzeni also takes off a further 3lbs and he is a very capable jockey. 1pt win Resentful Angel @ 9/2 (Paddy Power - BOG) 0.25pts E/W Champagne Fizz @ 22/1 (Paddy Power - BOG)

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StuSimmy

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Re: Kempton (AW) 24/01 16:05 Kempton Two again in this race for me: Seek The Fair Land has been in terrific form lately with form of 1124 in his last 4 runs. These have all been over today's trip at this course and at Lingfield. Won over course and distance off a mark of 75 when he beat Imprimis Tagula by 4 lengths who has franked the form since by winning twice since off the same mark and off 6lbs higher off a mark of 92. My selection is 1lb lower than his course and distance run here LTO when he was in a veru inadequate draw in stall 1 so that can be forgiven. Was only beaten a short head on his penultimate start over course and distance off 2lbs lower than today. Should give a better account from a middle draw here today. Indian Skipper won by a short head over course and distance on his penultimate start and finished ahead of Seek The Fair Land that day, there is a 5lb shift in the weights though but I think they will be tightly matched today hence why I am having a bet on them both. Is up 2lbs for that but loses 5lb claimer Billy Cray as Jim Crowley takes over in the saddle. I would rate him a stronger jockey and therefore I still think the horse is capable of winning off a mark of 84. Has a high draw in stall 12 which is ideal here at Kempton as it is better to be drawn high. 0.7pt win Seek The Fair Land @ 6/1 (WillHill - BOG) 0.4pt E/W Indian Skipper @ 11/1 (Coral - BOG)

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