Arantxa Posted January 11, 2010 Share Posted January 11, 2010 Hi @all great stuff here as always. I created an Outright "System" for this year and want to blog it here. It´s not really a system though, just made an excel sheet that takes every match till the final into account, so also the "unexpected" value of a selection.... To maybe explain this a bit one could mention the tournament last week where Söderling went out to Ginepri 1st round. Many people ( i used to do it too ) look at a draw like this: P.e. for Wawrinka Outright Ok Wawrinka will face Bopanna where he should be 85% Favorite, then he will likely face Ruseel ( 80% favo ) and then Berrer ( 75% favo ), in the semis he will play Söderling ( 40% Outsider ) and in the final maybe Cilic ( also 40% Outsider ) --> then you calculate 0,85*0,80*0,75*0,4*0,4= 0,08--> Odds around 12 should be value. BUT you underestimate the fact, that Söderling could lose first round!! or 2nd round!! or quarters!! BEFORE facing Wawrinka... So my system calculates in a nutshell if you have a 4 player tournament: P.e. Semis Söderling 88% Florian Mayer 12% Federer 80% Tsonga 20% I create a matrix: with probabilities for each player against each: Söderling chance against: Mayer 88% Federer 25% Tsonga 50% Mayer chance against: ( against Söderling already above 1-0,88=12%) Federer 7% Tsonga 18% Federer against: Tsonga 80% Tsonga against: already given by the 3 above Instinctically you would calculate Outright for Söderling: Beating Mayer 0,88 and then he has to beat Federer 0,25 -->Odds around @4,50 With my system it goes for a Söderling Outright: Beating Mayer 0,88*X X= Chance of Federer being in the Final (0,8)*Chance of Söderling beating Federer ( 0,25 )+ Chance of Tsonga being in the final ( 0,2 )* Chance of Söderling beating Tsonga ( 0,50 ) X=0,3 Odds for Söderling= 1/(0,88*0,3)= @3,80 So the difference of only one uncertain round is already significant and as you can imagine if you calculate the whole tournament like this, there can be found some value.... Has anybody of you thought about a similar approach yet?? Would be interesting to know for me:clap I will start with a Bank of 100, lets see how it turns out... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arantxa Posted January 11, 2010 Author Share Posted January 11, 2010 Just copy&pasted this from the "Other Sports Section" Unfortunately Lisicki has already lost 7/5 in the 3rd and Andreev 7/6 in the 3rd, while Czink went down to Dulko, so this 3 selections are already lost, but i will still count them to start with this thread to stay consistent and honest...:ok To resume this: Most Odds are from Pinnacle.... Bank 100 Sydney ATP: Monfils 3/10 @4,30 Hewitt 2/10 @7,25 Troicki 1,5/10 @21,25 Andreev 1/10 @23 Sydney WTA: Kuznetsova 1,5/10 @10,0 Lisicki 1/10 @34 Hobart WTA: Czink 2/10 @26 Auckland ATP: Nalbandian 1,5/10 @17 VC Ferrero 2,5/10 @6,60 Montanes 0,5/10 @41 bet365 Gicquel 1/10 @35 Staked: 17,5 Units Best of luck:cheers Oh i forgot to say if there are any profitable opportunities in my view to hedge a bet, e.g. if Gicquel reaches the final or so, i will probably do so, depending on my view and the bank situation... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 11, 2010 Share Posted January 11, 2010 Re: ATP and WTA Outright System If it reads like a system, sounds like a system, smells like one, feels like one, ... ;) Good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 12, 2010 Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: ATP and WTA Outright System Good luck with this system, mate. How do you calculate the probabilities of a matchup? Is it just your own estimation or do you use some sort of data/tool? And in your example with Söderling, Tsonga, Federer and Mayer: when you compute the probability of Söderling winning vs Tsonga (in the final), do you take into account that Tsonga has beaten Federer in the semifinal and therefore must be playing at the top of his level? I mean, if Söderling wins vs Tsonga 50% in a normal match, but Tsonga has the form to beat Federer at the moment, the number should drop a bit. Do you consider this in your numbers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arantxa Posted January 12, 2010 Author Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: ATP and WTA Outright System Good luck with this system, mate. How do you calculate the probabilities of a matchup? Is it just your own estimation or do you use some sort of data/tool? And in your example with Söderling, Tsonga, Federer and Mayer: when you compute the probability of Söderling winning vs Tsonga (in the final), do you take into account that Tsonga has beaten Federer in the semifinal and therefore must be playing at the top of his level? I mean, if Söderling wins vs Tsonga 50% in a normal match, but Tsonga has the form to beat Federer at the moment, the number should drop a bit. Do you consider this in your numbers? Yeah i use a 16x16matrix for each half of the draw and then use probs of winning the final between 0,3 and 0.7. And i use my own view on the matches of course, so the system is only as good as the input but i use oncourt and other things to sharpen my view... I don´t use this form thing you mentioned with Tsonga, as it is impossible ( at least for me ) to calculate some "form" for every possible matchup in a tournament of 32 players... But the system should only give me a hint of who should be value and most of the time its clearly value or clearly no value, and if on the brink, i use my own feeling.... Last tournament in Doha i had a good run with Davydenko, this time it seems like everything goes wrong, but its only one week so who cares... Greetz Arantxa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arantxa Posted January 15, 2010 Author Share Posted January 15, 2010 Re: ATP and WTA Outright System Just copy&pasted this from the "Other Sports Section" Unfortunately Lisicki has already lost 7/5 in the 3rd and Andreev 7/6 in the 3rd, while Czink went down to Dulko, so this 3 selections are already lost, but i will still count them to start with this thread to stay consistent and honest...:ok To resume this: Most Odds are from Pinnacle.... Bank 100 Sydney ATP: Monfils 3/10 @4,30 Hewitt 2/10 @7,25 Troicki 1,5/10 @21,25 Andreev 1/10 @23 Sydney WTA: Kuznetsova 1,5/10 @10,0 Lisicki 1/10 @34 Hobart WTA: Czink 2/10 @26 Auckland ATP: Nalbandian 1,5/10 @17 VC Ferrero 2,5/10 @6,60 Montanes 0,5/10 @41 bet365 Gicquel 1/10 @35 Staked: 17,5 Units Profit/Loss -13,00 Units ( Monfils and Nalbi didn´t start ) New Bank: 87,00 Units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arantxa Posted January 15, 2010 Author Share Posted January 15, 2010 Re: ATP and WTA Outright System Bank 87,00 ATP Australien Open: Murray 6/10 @8,00 Betfair Davydenko 6/10 @14,00 Betfair Verdasco 3/10 @51 5Dimes Söderling 3/10 @50 Betfair Gasquet 1,5/10 @240 Betfair Gonzalez 1,5/10 @201 5Dimes WTA Australien Open: Clijsters 13/10 @4,70 Betfair Henin 6/10 @8,20 Betfair Wozniacki 4/10 @25 Expekt Lisicki 2/10 @110 Betfair Bank: 87,00 Staked: 46,00 Total Staked: 63,00 Profit: 0 Loss: 13 Return: -13,00 ROI: -100% Yield: -13% Odds at the time of posting, overbet Clijsters a bit, but terrific value IMO and want to be balanced on winnings with Henin and Clijsters... Personally i took Davydenko before the draw and after Doha @25, 6/10 hopefully he can repeat his performances of Doha, then he is in there with a shot... Good Luck:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arantxa Posted January 20, 2010 Author Share Posted January 20, 2010 Re: ATP and WTA Outright System Adding one in WTA Tournament: Bartoli @131 5 Dimes 1,5/10 Units MfG Arantxa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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