Half Time Result

[BeXXs]

Hello everyone, ive read a bit in this forum, but never posted before. So first of all, i would like to say hello to all of you. I have developed a system for the halftime result market that id like to present here. Bet selection: I compute a succes rate (SR) for each team based on their last 32 games in the league. To do this, i count every win as 1 point, every draw as 0.5 points and every loss as 0 points. Furthermore i weight the last 10 games with about 1/2, the last 11 to 21 games with about 1/3 and the last 22 to 32 games with about 1/6. Then i compute a game rating (GR) using the SR of the two involved teams. I have analysed the seasons 9394-0809 in Bundesliga, Premier League, Primera Division, Serie A and Ligue 1 to see how the GR is related to the half time result. This gives me my probabilities for a half time home win, draw or away win for every GR. I place a bet if i can get a valuefactor of 1.1, meaning that my probability times the odds needs to be over 1.1. I only place bets in the leagues mentioned above. Promoted teams are not part of this system since it is more complicated to compute their SR. Backtesting: I have backtested this system with the games played since the start of this season until new year. I would have reached a yield of 15% with a constant stake on each bet, but i guess its much variance in this. My estimation is that a yield of 3-5% is realistic. Staking plan: I consider the intervals ...-83-91-100-110-121-133-146-161-... (the next number is 1.1 times the previous one). I always bet 2% of the lower bound of the interval my current bank is in, starting with a bank of 100 pts. When two outcomes in a match represent value, i will lay the third one with an amount that risks the specific number of points. EDIT: On all selections up to 28) i have bet 2 pts. Paper trial/real money: I will spend real money on this. Progress (04/02/10): bets: 65 av. odds: 3.02 expected strike rate: 21.5/65 achieved strike rate: 24/65 staked: 145.4 pts starting bank: 100 pts current bank: 115.50 pts profit: 15.50 pts yield: 11 %

[BeXXs]

Re: Half Time Result All comments are welcome. Id especially like to hear your opinions on the weight of the games in the computation of the SR as well as on the staking plan (since i havent put much thought into the staking plan at all). Lets hope it works out well.