Southwell 29/12

[RussP]

A cracking handicap to get involved with but we have to wait until the last race. No prices available yet but probably won't be online tomorrow so posting up now my thoughts. 3.35 Southwell Harlech Castle - Drop to this grade & mark a big plus and shown definite promise in last 2 runs with blinkers fitted (bad draw lto). Has run well here once in the past and, provided it adopts the prominent style of recent, will go well. Madison Belle - Goes well here but long absence a worry as is return to handicaps. Will struggle in this grade, chance rests on its excellent course form. Final Salute - Handicapped to go well, ran great race here back in March. Concern over form since return from break but stable in good nick. EW chance. Cheap Thrills - Front runner in good form. Won in claimer lto, looks nicely handicapped and has decent draw to break well. Should go well. Onceuponatime - The consistent horse of the race. Close in most of recent races off similar mark, trip & class. Is proving a little frustrating though. One promising run here finishing a head behind Restless Genius but opponent 2lb better with jockeys claim. Placepot banker? Gentle Guru - Won 2 starts ago but that was in Class 6. This is too tough, on 3lb higher mark & 2 poor efforts to overcome. First try on surface and hold up style unlikely to suit. Bo McGinty - Finishes well and has won here but concern that 5f is more suitable. Good mark, top stable so not ruled out but is a long time without a win and not done enough lately to suggest a win is imminent. Restless Genius - Form on surface, best at this trip, decent enough mark & draw, excellent 3lb claimer on. Ran well here 3 starts ago over inadequate 5f, then unlucky when run blocked at Wolverhampton off before race not suiting lto. Stable amongst winners over jumps. Kyle - Running well off this sort of mark & good chance, surface dependent. Likes soft on turf but would have liked to have seen some semblence of form here. Danum Dancer - C&D winner so not easily discounted. Ignore lto due to slow start. Won well previously but 6lb higher. Possibilities. Naomh Geileis - Too high in mark & grade, whilst real concern over trip as needs 7f minimum. However, has won here so outside chance if not outpaced. Stanley Goodspeed - Long time without a win, better over 7f, up in grade, first time on surface with hold up style not certain to suit. I'll be concentrating on Harlech Castle and Restless Genius, will be looking for around 8/1 or above on both.

[jayalexander]

Re: Southwell 29/12 I am liking this Southwell card and have been able to narrow the field down to either my one selection in that particular race, or down to two potentials. 2.30 Angies Nap vs Bubbly Belini Tough decision. Belini won his last outing 2days ago, while Angie has had a tough time of late and has three straight losses, which followed on from three 1st places. Both are course winners, but I have a suspision that Belini will be a NR, so going with Angies Nap. Also keeping an eye on the trainer, P S McEntee, as he has a good record with 2yo's. Lord Victor is also a threat, although he last ran 2 days ago too.