Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

[fintron]

I got a copy of Dave Nevison's Gamblers Diary for Christmas and it has given me a bit of impetus to try with the true value approach again. I have a method of betting that suits me for the jumps handicap chases and I have a way of betting that suits me for turf, but on the all-weather I have struggled of late, as I did towards the back end of last season. It was clear to me that the methods I use for turf are not immediately transferrable to the AW, so I am going to try my luck with a thread for flat bets that looks for true value - you draw up a tissue and identify selections if they are available at prices bigger than you think they should be. I aim to work to the error margin Nevsion talks of in his second book - 15 %. I may be a little flexible on this at times but the overall aim is to cut down on the number of bets I have in 2010 and this margin will hopefully help do that. My overall betting aims for 2010: 1) Become more selective 2) Up my stakes on horses I am really confident about 3) Spend less time overall studying racing (with a thesis to write up and a baby on the way I need to cut back on form study overall), however, spend more time researching each-individual race. I think drawing up a tissue requires indepth study, and that is why I have elected this as my method of choice for this thread. The plan is to trial this on the AW until the flat kicks in again, and then I will hopefully have the option of sticking with it through the turf season or will pack it in and pick back up the flat methods from 2009. Staking is the issue I am unsure of at the minute. To start with I'll go with a 1-12 point scale.

[fintron]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Bet 1: 4.45 Wolverhampton My prices to beat: Imprimis Tagula 11/2, Earlsmedic 13/2, Capone 7/1, Orpenindeed 8/1, Five Star Junior 17/2, Ebraam 11/1, Matsunosuke 13/1, Rain Rush 14/1, Flowing Cape 16/1, Tom's Laugher 20/1, Smokey Ryder 22/1, Mrs Penny 25/1 Five Star Junior is a 12/1 chance with VC Bet so I am taking that as my first bet as I think he should be around the 17/2 mark. This price was taken following the withdrawl of 7/1 shot Orpenindeed so I don't expect to be hit with a Rule 4 on that, and although Rain Rush has been pulled out since the bet was struck he was at prices ranging from 16/1 to 33/1 at the point of withdrawl and I'd be disappointed if I lost anything for that. Each-way terms remain unaltered at 3 places, 1/5 odds, ten runners now face the starter.