Microsystems

[Dave in The Lakes]

MICROSYSTEMS I do not believe in systems! After 20 years succesfull punting this was my considered opinion until around 4 years ago I fell upon Adrian Massey's site. I am now converted because I believe it has enabled me to solve what I considered the proverbial problem with systems- If you have few criteria there are lots of bets but a low strike rate/ROI and the breaker of most systems raises it's head namely the long losing run. Conversely if there are lots of criteria you enhance the strike rate but have very few bets and who wants to run a system which produces 10 to 20 bets a year? The answer I hope is microsystems. I have developed around 20 systems each with restrictive criteria that produces in most only 10 to 20 selections a year and in the remainder 20 to 40 bets. Combined together however they produce about 300 bets a year. The philosophy behind this is similar to investing via the stock market in a unit trust or a pension plan-you dont put all your eggs in one basket ie you split your investment amongst a group of companies and if one or two go bust or just underperform it doesn't matter in the long term if the others do well. Also if you run a single system it is difficult to implement changes-with microsystems if one or more systems are underperforming they can be withdrawn and reappraised without the process coming to a grinding halt. The systems cover turf flat, all weather and to a lesser degree hurdles and to an even smaller number chases. I love the jumps but those bl**dy obstacles get in the way! As a result bets only average around 10-15 a month oct-apr and 20-30 may-sep. All seasons appear to do ok but the summer is best overall. To be honest January is not the best time to launch but I work my stats on the calendar year. The main potential problems I anticipate are- 1. The system may not eradicate the long losing run-if each system produced one loser at the same time we could have 20 losers on the trot. 2. systems based on a small number of qualifiers could be suspect. ANALYSIS OF BETS/SYSTEM As each bet is driven by the software-win or lose I dont propose to give an appraisal or enter discussions on individual selections. I am not prepared to discuss the criteria I have arrived at for any constituent of microsystems. I am happy to chat about the principals of the concept of microsystems. RESULTS ANALYSIS Results will be based on the price available at the time of posting which will be after I have backed as I intend to back all selections apart from those that are odds on. All bets were initially 1 point win or 0.5 pt ew but from 1st June 2010 it was agreed all bets would be to a simple 1pt win (at advised prices or best odds guaranteed if available with the quoted bookies). SYSTEM LAUNCH/POSTINGS Selections will commence from 1st January 2010. I cannot guarantee the post time but expect this will usually be after 11:00 am. If no post by start of racing assume no bet.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems Record keeping will not commence till 1st Jan but Go Native 230Kemp is a bet on one of the systems. This particular system has a good place strike rate so I have backed ew even though there are only 2 places. Current prices 3.55 win 1.94 place betfair.